Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 15:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$44.07
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.04
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.5h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 8,118 · failsafes 2 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,235 rpc · 923 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

6,187
launches seen
144
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
22
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
2
opened

Refused: gate B 5,564 · gate D 118 · filter C 20 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2021-$44.07-$22.04
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (2)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
12:4613:05USDUG 0xdd43…eb85Gold v213.7m20m1.90xtrail$15.52+15.5%B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m
11:0911:11SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8dGold v211.5m3m1.00xstop-$59.59-59.6%B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set240not yet
Running days0.275not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$44.07> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%50%50 to 73%met
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 292 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
15:31POND 0x2889…0ea7uniswap-v4-launchpad133$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:27MeowDeng 0x142d…c12dpons-v228$8,104$6,6540.83gateD:liq $8104 < $10000
15:26haMSTR 0x8732…14fcuniswap-v4-launchpad79$60,630$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:24VLEAP 0x7a02…0117uniswap-v4-launchpad33$59,952$14,1782.80filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:23Treecoin 0xac92…25f0uniswap-v4-launchpad71$49,468$19,2761.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:19OG 0x6460…d923pons-v230$1$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:18YES 0x5a9e…d1a7pons-v268$15,713$88,3431.41gateD:buy/sell 1.41 < 1.5
15:14RSTR 0x78b9…025duniswap-v4-launchpad23$230,939$34,2420.93gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
15:14John 0x1517…46ffuniswap-v4-launchpad23$41,395$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:11SHVL 0xcbd8…2518uniswap-v4-launchpad154$56,908$37,2291.67filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:01NVIDIA 0xd54f…9643pons-v229$7$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
14:57OH 0x9afa…c767uniswap-v4-launchpad170$8,032$6661.33gateD:liq $8032 < $10000
14:55QI 0xb4e2…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad293$44,190$8,3800.68gateD:buy/sell 0.68 < 1.5
14:53MEMORY 0x3675…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad158$24,884$9,5351.58filterC:sellSim
14:53qINU 0x9e82…6ab9uniswap-v4-launchpad116$83,430$20,2251.65filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
14:48qINU 0x6a38…fc6cpons-v256$28,240$99,5400.99gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5
13:20Sirius 0x540e…95e0pons-v252$6,444$16,6290.64gateD:liq $6444 < $10000
13:08VENN 0xe3f5…f389uniswap-v4-launchpad38$32,440$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:07VENN 0xc1f3…ac31uniswap-v4-launchpad26$28,157$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:02VENN 0x0a6e…a9deuniswap-v4-launchpad49$36,959$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:58MONI 0x612e…e8e6uniswap-v4-launchpad53$4,108$1,8610.35gateD:liq $4108 < $10000
12:57RELL 0x9945…be96uniswap-v4-launchpad77$21,901$4,5127.67gateD:vol5 $4512 < $5000
12:52RECOVER 0xfcbe…7a6auniswap-v4-launchpad312$12,825$2,9902.33gateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000
12:51SGOV 0x92fd…f9b5uniswap-v4-launchpad20$3,836,159$3,4130.93gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:50HOODSTRATEGY 0x4ea8…10bauniswap-v4-launchpad114$66,184$11,1541.57filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:49HOODSTRATEGY 0xff1a…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad79$27,605$6,0321.58filterC:sellSim
12:46USDUG 0xdd43…eb85uniswap-v4-launchpad91$11,083$9,8451.50ADMITTED
12:44STRC 0xe292…2457uniswap-v4-launchpad473$15,040$6,5861.05gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5
12:43ROOT 0x9698…11d0uniswap-v4-launchpad129$96,725$33,1401.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:40MSTR 0xec26…da09uniswap-v4-launchpad46$1,139,273$105,7431.17gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:39haMSTR 0x3604…697funiswap-v4-launchpad271$145,288$36,4061.33gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5
12:37STRC 0x6612…bd4euniswap-v4-launchpad180$7,297$3380.50gateD:liq $7297 < $10000
12:36STRC 0x0d58…8214uniswap-v4-launchpad32$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:34haMSTR 0x0b6a…b429pons-v226$21,810$151,3850.99gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5
12:34STRC 0xb50f…c6b6uniswap-v4-launchpad1182$13,272$28,9200.77gateD:buy/sell 0.77 < 1.5
12:33STRC 0x39b2…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad25$21,337$1072.00gateD:vol5 $107 < $5000
12:33Uranus 0x8caf…8ccfuniswap-v4-launchpad22$12,457$1570.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:32STRC 0x1a28…58bfuniswap-v4-launchpad197$90,710$6,9471.74filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:28EMC 0x9cec…a4eduniswap-v4-launchpad27$31,592$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:234WALL 0x8dfb…7ba0uniswap-v4-launchpad22$41,427$70823.50gateD:vol5 $708 < $5000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool59
gateD:features17
gateD:poolMismatch16
C:notV2VsWeth16
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager16
C:creatorShareUnknown16
gateD:buy/sell12
gateD:vol57
gateD:liq7
C:swapsH1<2506
C:sellSimStale2
C:sellSim2
C:liquidityUnder$250001

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

262 refusals checked at +1h so far. 18 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD219-9.0%10
filterC43+20.1%8
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
14:30SiriusgateD:liq $6444 < $10000h1-5.5%-2.8%
14:15VENNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
14:15VENNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
14:15VENNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
14:00RELLgateD:vol5 $4512 < $5000h1+99.6%+50.5%
14:00MONIgateD:liq $4108 < $10000h1-52.3%-95.4%
14:00HOODSTRATEGYfilterC:sellSimh1-19.2%-17.5%
14:00HOODSTRATEGYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
14:00SGOVgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h10.0%+1.4%
14:00RECOVERgateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000h1-68.1%-43.4%
13:45STRCfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+2.2%+1.4%
13:45UranusgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+0.4%+0.3%
13:45STRCgateD:vol5 $107 < $5000h1-0.1%-0.0%
13:45STRCgateD:buy/sell 0.77 < 1.5h1-23.0%-12.3%
13:45haMSTRgateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5h1-17.7%-9.3%
13:45STRCgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
13:45STRCgateD:liq $7297 < $10000h1-43.4%-24.8%
13:45haMSTRgateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5h1+27.1%+14.9%
13:45MSTRgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+0.2%-11.1%
13:45ROOTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+45.5%+26.0%
13:45STRCgateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5h1-6.4%-3.3%
13:30EMCgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
13:304WALLgateD:vol5 $708 < $5000h1+69.5%+35.1%
13:30EMCgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
13:15ASTEROIDgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+16.8%+9.1%
13:00ASSAYgateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5h1+259.3%+119.3%
13:00ChatongateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5h1-71.0%-46.2%
12:45FloorPadfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+298.7%+141.9%
12:45FATfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+6.9%+4.1%
12:45FATgateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5h1+5.0%+1.1%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)