Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 01:48 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
1.1h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 28s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 29s ago ok
Socket events 2,259 · failsafes 2 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 390 rpc · 95 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
1,340
launches seen
→
68
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
4
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 981 · gate D 54 · filter C 4 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.05 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1315 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:44 | RIVN 0xb1bf…114b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $205,834 | $1,529,738 | 0.98 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:44 | RIVN 0x7344…7e01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 72 | $12,317 | $658 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:43 | imdbot 0x4e28…b4cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $137,365 | $14,202 | 1.18 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:42 | PORK 0x874d…ed44 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $6 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:42 | RIVN 0x6a4c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $21,253 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:41 | RIDE 0x8b3e…17f8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1507 | $45,346 | $57,989 | 1.96 | filterC:sellSim |
| 01:36 | CPR 0x2043…4551 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $13,466 | $5,406 | 5.91 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:36 | PDOOM 0x6df5…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 365 | $137,187 | $80,128 | 0.56 | gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5 |
| 01:33 | FLYWHEEL 0x5587…56f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $16,262 | $3,441 | 0.95 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:29 | MIDORU 0xa111…ac04 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $27,847 | $6,369 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:29 | Nvidia 0xece9…10bd | pons-v2 | 50 | $6,277 | $7,318 | 0.41 | gateD:liq $6277 < $10000 |
| 01:28 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $7,354,168 | $66,033 | 0.83 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:27 | LONG 0x39e6…ce97 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $16,735 | $1,810 | 11.00 | gateD:vol5 $1810 < $5000 |
| 01:23 | GERI 0x36ed…7815 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 234 | $19,889 | $40,217 | 1.35 | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 |
| 01:20 | TYLEE 0x03d4…dddd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $5,266 | $486 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:17 | FLY 0x588e…f1e4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $36,255 | $11,436 | 2.22 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:16 | CS6900 0x01b4…c9bb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $61 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:15 | FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $72,037 | $3,781 | 1.11 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:14 | GME 0xc236…4ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $278,791 | $1,219 | 0.88 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:14 | Stonkfly 0xc613…b148 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $97,658 | $4,194 | 1.11 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:13 | GME 0x1b0e…153e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $671,139 | $55,582 | 1.07 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:13 | MIDORI 0x2723…0f1e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $16,683 | $730 | 0.60 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:10 | MC 0x3327…f55b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $20,953 | $1,647 | 0.27 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:07 | Nvidia 0x3c1f…9f77 | pons-v2 | 32 | $20,158 | $26,427 | 1.31 | gateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5 |
| 01:06 | Æ 0xec29…792c | pons-v2 | 51 | $19,610 | $18,068 | 1.16 | gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5 |
| 01:06 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $1,800,058 | $3,504 | 0.75 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:02 | FLY 0xd07b…e12f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $116,629 | $14,319 | 0.76 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:02 | REVENANT 0x848d…24ac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $43,036 | $6,428 | 0.67 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:01 | ETHCAT 0x35a3…5729 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $50,287 | $19,883 | 2.15 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:00 | MIDORUCAT 0x07c4…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $35,512 | $4,041 | 0.77 | gateD:vol5 $4041 < $5000 |
| 01:00 | PHAT 0xf834…8a52 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 119 | $365 | $170 | 0.70 | gateD:liq $365 < $10000 |
| 01:00 | Harvest 0x22d1…03dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $67,009 | $11,938 | 1.38 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:58 | >_ 0xa9dd…b01d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 78 | $15,391 | $20,175 | 1.31 | gateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5 |
| 00:58 | Sheaf 0x0d30…3153 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $4,906 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:25 | X 0x78c9…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $51,735 | $23,210 | 1.02 | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 |
| 23:10 | RGS 0x374a…f00c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $12,776 | $2,971 | 0.82 | gateD:vol5 $2971 < $5000 |
| 22:35 | ROCKETFROG 0xd78b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $26,557 | $1,487 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000 |
| 22:28 | FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 107 | $43,070 | $87,277 | 0.83 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:28 | STONKFLY 0x85ef…85a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $135,949 | $1,027,076 | 1.84 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:26 | RocketFrog 0x8e7d…f6cf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $7,357 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 24 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 18 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 5 |
| gateD:features | 3 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 3 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 3 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 3 |
| gateD:vol5 | 2 |
| gateD:liq | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1214 refusals checked at +1h so far. 112 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 960 | -9.9% | 45 |
| filterC | 251 | +59.2% | 67 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | I | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 | d1 | -93.1% | -74.1% |
| 01:45 | FUCK | gateD:liq $9688 < $10000 | d1 | +288.8% | +110.0% |
| 01:30 | MIRAGEFI | gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000 | d1 | +93.0% | +39.3% |
| 01:30 | 🍏 | gateD:liq $8747 < $10000 | d1 | -72.5% | -46.8% |
| 01:30 | SHROOM | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +25.1% | +9.4% |
| 01:30 | X | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 | h1 | +44.9% | +28.9% |
| 01:30 | BATWIF | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -12.6% | -12.2% |
| 01:15 | vell | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 01:15 | WORKS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 01:15 | Billycoin | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 01:15 | ROB | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +126.2% | +75.3% |
| 01:00 | ponzi | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 01:00 | ROB | gateD:liq $9106 < $10000 | d1 | -79.9% | -55.3% |
| 01:00 | BROS | gateD:liq $9 < $10000 | d1 | +21.1% | -9.0% |
| 00:45 | MOOF | gateD:liq $8617 < $10000 | d1 | -64.6% | -39.6% |
| 00:45 | FIDO | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -1.2% | -1.1% |
| 00:45 | FIDO | gateD:liq $1 < $10000 | d1 | +1202.4% | +1403.6% |
| 00:45 | FIDO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -12.7% | -12.2% |
| 00:45 | AAPL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +3.1% | +121.2% |
| 00:30 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +0.1% | -59.1% |
| 00:30 | anon | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +48.3% | -100.0% |
| 00:15 | CLOCKERS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -49.3% | -36.1% |
| 00:15 | RGS | gateD:vol5 $2971 < $5000 | h1 | -76.3% | -51.3% |
| 00:00 | AFTER | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -69.7% | -45.1% |
| 23:45 | ROCKETFROG | gateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000 | h1 | -21.6% | -20.1% |
| 23:30 | GRASS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +37.8% | +17.4% |
| 23:30 | baton | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +165.9% | +91.0% |
| 23:30 | HOPPY | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:30 | BANYANA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +63.6% | -100.0% |
| 23:30 | CSGO | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)