Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 21:30 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$172.13
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
6
2 won · 1 open
Per trade
-$28.69
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
12.5h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 25s ago ok
Socket events 18,481 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 6,280 rpc · 1,818 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
13,470
launches seen
→
365
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
67
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
7
opened
Refused: gate B 13,031 · gate D 291 · filter C 60 · vetoed 1 · size-ups 4 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -$172.13 | -$28.69 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (1)
| opened | token | set | entry | mark | now | peak | left | realized | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:21 | SXY 0x8998…58f2 | Gold v2 | $100 | 0.00005156 | 1.03x | 1.20x | 100% | $0.00 | B:115 buyers · D:liq $17774 vol5 $24655 b/s 1.51 · C:allowlist · size-up:134 distinct buyers in 30m |
Closed trades (6)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:15 | 21:19 | Crumbs 0x4228…83f6 | Gold v2 | 10.4m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$100.30 | -100.3% | B:153 buyers · D:liq $63756 vol5 $25868 b/s 1.93 · C:allowlist · size-up:154 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 20:30 | 20:35 | BERRY 0x643c…5c7d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 5m | 1.00x | stop | -$31.13 | -62.3% | B:40 buyers · D:liq $23287 vol5 $12654 b/s 1.77 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 19:04 | 20:34 | CANAL 0xb796…aec8 | Gold v2 | 11.1m | 90m | 1.73x | max_hold | $16.03 | +32.1% | B:72 buyers · D:liq $33980 vol5 $5462 b/s 2.64 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 17:36 | 19:06 | JOMO 0xf238…1c91 | Gold v2 | 12m | 90m | 1.06x | max_hold | -$12.66 | -25.3% | B:34 buyers · D:liq $17299 vol5 $5055 b/s 2.71 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 12:46 | 13:05 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | Gold v2 | 13.7m | 20m | 1.90x | trail | $15.52 | +15.5% | B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:09 | 11:11 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$59.59 | -59.6% | B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 6 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.52 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$172.13 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 33% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 470 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:28 | 2Z 0xc482…d5ab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $45,489 | $24,458 | 1.77 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:27 | WORKS 0xf9dc…7c7b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $26,735 | $8,658 | 2.75 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 21:27 | SPROUTS 0xbb2e…d001 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $4,260 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:25 | VEEFO 0xc040…eba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $5,043 | $25 | gateD:liq $5043 < $10000 | |
| 21:21 | SXY 0x8998…58f2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 115 | $17,774 | $24,655 | 1.51 | ADMITTED |
| 21:21 | AI 0x6f26…8e38 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 113 | $1,405 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:21 | DUST 0x0ff5…c011 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $4,877 | $21 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $4877 < $10000 |
| 21:19 | RHD 0xe24e…48f4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 438 | $5,726 | $1,376 | 0.70 | gateD:liq $5726 < $10000 |
| 21:19 | RHD 0x00ca…f8a2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 125 | $4,358 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:19 | GPUs 0xdd21…4b7d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $1,543 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:15 | Crumbs 0x4228…83f6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 153 | $63,756 | $25,868 | 1.93 | ADMITTED |
| 21:12 | STONK 0x9984…778d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 141 | $5,972 | $267 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5972 < $10000 |
| 21:11 | Gauntlet 0xf4e6…df8a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 122 | $5,085 | $35 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5085 < $10000 |
| 21:06 | FUNDS 0x018b…bd9e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $4,770 | $3 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4770 < $10000 |
| 21:03 | SWEEP 0x9f1c…9feb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 226 | $5,777 | $752 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $5777 < $10000 |
| 21:01 | AMERICA 0xfbd8…8adc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 282 | $6,950 | $1,786 | 0.65 | gateD:liq $6950 < $10000 |
| 20:58 | SA 0xa7c3…b5aa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 236 | $5,679 | $5,652 | 0.57 | gateD:liq $5679 < $10000 |
| 20:58 | dividends 0x8af2…3b5a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $16,774 | $6,081 | 2.22 | filterC:sellSim |
| 20:55 | S&P500 0x05ec…0413 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 206 | $5,413 | $3,062 | 0.37 | gateD:liq $5413 < $10000 |
| 20:52 | VIBECAT 0x167e…f296 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $23,056 | $14,251 | 1.36 | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 |
| 20:51 | DFC 0xbca7…94f0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $48,130 | $25,227 | 1.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:50 | ZDOG 0x37e9…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $19,866 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:44 | SPECS 0x2536…72ac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 455 | $7,693 | $13,688 | 0.56 | gateD:liq $7693 < $10000 |
| 20:37 | XMRCAT 0xdc2a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $22,872 | $37 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $37 < $5000 |
| 20:31 | BURISMA 0xb29c…fb22 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $13,478 | $2,484 | 0.82 | gateD:vol5 $2484 < $5000 |
| 20:30 | BERRY 0x643c…5c7d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $23,287 | $12,654 | 1.77 | ADMITTED |
| 20:30 | HOODINU 0xcf5a…cb57 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $32,550 | $28,659 | 0.76 | gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5 |
| 20:30 | ROBI NHOOD 0x655b…16a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 257 | $7,003 | $1,922 | 0.74 | gateD:liq $7003 < $10000 |
| 20:27 | KOL 0x13ca…8d3f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $21,541 | $7,685 | 0.66 | gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5 |
| 20:25 | VEEF 0x2ed7…eba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 177 | $0 | $84 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 20:24 | PONSPULSE 0x7e79…4a3a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $63,138 | $15,548 | 1.86 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:24 | CONSOLE 0x1ab0…b73f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $20,234 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:24 | astro 0xdc54…13a7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 115 | $38,420 | $48,970 | 1.18 | gateD:buy/sell 1.18 < 1.5 |
| 20:21 | BALL 0xbeeb…b0b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $15,127 | $5,838 | 0.23 | gateD:buy/sell 0.23 < 1.5 |
| 20:21 | TRACTION 0xcbb4…ea86 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $34,652 | $75,701 | 1.56 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 20:20 | TRILLIONS 0xb115…17ef | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 799 | $26,462 | $18,425 | 1.30 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 |
| 20:15 | HST 0x68b9…9e3c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $5,232 | $934 | 0.54 | gateD:liq $5232 < $10000 |
| 20:14 | TRILLIONS 0x84b0…fb24 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $62,722 | $12,658 | 1.81 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:13 | PUNT 0x2714…56a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $25,096 | $19,852 | 2.27 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:12 | Trends 0x4d8c…21f4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $54,848 | $19,269 | 1.88 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 100 |
| gateD:features | 58 |
| gateD:liq | 49 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 47 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 47 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 46 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 38 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 31 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 24 |
| gateD:vol5 | 22 |
| C:sellSimStale | 8 |
| C:sellSim | 5 |
| C:copycat | 3 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
417 refusals checked at +1h so far. 31 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 334 | -12.1% | 13 |
| filterC | 82 | +90.3% | 18 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:15 | DOGEHOUSE | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 | d1 | -86.2% | -66.8% |
| 21:15 | SNOWCOIN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 21:15 | astro | gateD:buy/sell 0.57 < 1.5 | h1 | -70.4% | -45.8% |
| 21:15 | AWSTRONAUGHT | gateD:liq $6490 < $10000 | h1 | -11.0% | -6.0% |
| 21:15 | ASTRO | gateD:vol5 $494 < $5000 | h1 | -6.3% | -5.8% |
| 21:15 | HAVOC | gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5 | h1 | -93.0% | -73.5% |
| 21:15 | astro | gateD:buy/sell 0.95 < 1.5 | h1 | -81.7% | -57.4% |
| 21:15 | astro | +5m honeypot veto: 46 buys and 0 sells | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:15 | astro | gateD:buy/sell 1.32 < 1.5 | h1 | +30.3% | +19.6% |
| 21:15 | TOPBLAST | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | +5842.1% | +669.5% |
| 21:15 | PONSHIMI | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 | h1 | -92.1% | -71.9% |
| 21:15 | Trends | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +91.6% | +55.7% |
| 21:15 | PUNT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -49.8% | -33.5% |
| 21:15 | TRILLIONS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +33.3% | +21.6% |
| 21:00 | Gun | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -29.0% | -20.7% |
| 21:00 | LUPO | gateD:liq $5066 < $10000 | d1 | -22.2% | -11.8% |
| 21:00 | BIDEN | gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5 | d1 | -78.7% | -60.9% |
| 21:00 | NVDA | gateD:buy/sell 0.78 < 1.5 | d1 | -2.6% | +5.9% |
| 21:00 | USDG | gateD:buy/sell 0.57 < 1.5 | d1 | +0.0% | -10.8% |
| 21:00 | PIGGYBANK | gateD:liq $5965 < $10000 | d1 | -49.7% | -29.1% |
| 21:00 | DJT | gateD:vol5 $3114 < $5000 | d1 | +2.3% | -53.3% |
| 21:00 | CRACK | gateD:liq $7099 < $10000 | d1 | -29.2% | -24.6% |
| 21:00 | TIMES | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 | h1 | -89.8% | -68.2% |
| 21:00 | NFS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | OLLIE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | FLOW | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 | h1 | -84.8% | -61.0% |
| 21:00 | TEN | gateD:vol5 $2391 < $5000 | h1 | -84.2% | -60.2% |
| 21:00 | AP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -44.3% | -25.4% |
| 21:00 | 007 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | ROBSTR | gateD:liq $8666 < $10000 | h1 | -65.3% | -41.2% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)