Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 17:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$58.41
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
$29.21
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
19.0h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 8s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 9s ago ok
Socket events 22,455 · failsafes 9 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 8,753 rpc · 2,586 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
15,036
launches seen
→
439
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
60
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
2
opened
Refused: gate B 14,314 · gate D 362 · filter C 58 · vetoed 2 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | $58.41 | $29.21 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (2)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:20 | 16:39 | ANY 0x2d51…b963 | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 19m | 5.44x | trail | $52.27 | +104.5% | B:33 buyers · D:liq $14822 vol5 $15894 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 2 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.79 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $58.41 | > $0 | met |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 100% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1169 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:27 | ROBIN 0x2c37…c5c8 | pons-v2 | 32 | $5,434 | $120 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5434 < $10000 |
| 17:26 | BCP 0xae78…0f14 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $62,592 | $9,078 | 1.86 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:26 | Stonkfly 0xc613…b148 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 249 | $40,152 | $29,215 | 1.00 | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 |
| 17:24 | WETH 0x0bd7…ad73 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 89 | $28,499,736 | $2,617,898 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 17:19 | Stonkfly 0x0008…a4e3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $54,761 | $19,260 | 2.25 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:18 | Astra 0x50ca…0b96 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 258 | $62,375 | $26,763 | 1.03 | gateD:buy/sell 1.03 < 1.5 |
| 17:16 | SNAPCAT 0x9e4f…f51e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 46 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:11 | STONKFLY 0x99cc…eba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $18,404 | $26 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $26 < $5000 |
| 17:08 | THRU 0x8910…9732 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 123 | $90,589 | $51,310 | 1.97 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:08 | ENDSZ 0x88b2…5e81 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $12,791 | $3,808 | 0.73 | gateD:vol5 $3808 < $5000 |
| 17:05 | COOK 0x249d…2616 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $3,079 | $2,924 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3079 < $10000 |
| 16:55 | ROVE 0xf4a6…06c1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $60,887 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:53 | hands 0xcc01…dc6e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 119 | $81,494 | $34,879 | 2.29 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:47 | SPACESHIP 0xba9b…2edd | pons-v2 | 52 | $7,599 | $7,520 | 0.79 | gateD:liq $7599 < $10000 |
| 16:38 | DOK 0xc87e…fc2b | pons-v2 | 20 | $9 | $0 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $9 < $10000 |
| 16:38 | DOK 0xa197…cdbd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 230 | $57,584 | $18,062 | 2.17 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:37 | MARIO 0xdad3…1c8a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $92,965 | $55,119 | 1.69 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:36 | VERSE 0x4ec4…e0b2 | pons-v2 | 105 | $5,310 | $6,951 | 0.12 | gateD:liq $5310 < $10000 |
| 16:32 | Sweater 0xd389…4815 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $27,024 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:28 | MARIO 0x7a49…420c | pons-v2 | 77 | $15,258 | $16,823 | 1.84 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 16:26 | ROVE 0x99af…b0cb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $38,555 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:20 | ANY 0x2d51…b963 | pons-v2 | 33 | $14,822 | $15,894 | 1.63 | ADMITTED |
| 16:14 | ALEXANDER 0xa13f…067d | pons-v2 | 21 | $7,477 | $1,259 | 1.11 | gateD:liq $7477 < $10000 |
| 16:09 | ZenoCoin 0x2e2f…533a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $39,678 | $20,601 | 1.94 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:08 | AUK 0x99fc…2ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $8,859 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:06 | ZFORGE 0x87a3…1661 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 149 | $107,288 | $27,178 | 2.33 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:05 | BAGOFDICKS 0x6266…a075 | pons-v2 | 23 | $6,916 | $494 | 0.38 | gateD:liq $6916 < $10000 |
| 15:58 | G 0xd5cf…7bb3 | pons-v2 | 58 | $13,617 | $17,676 | 1.30 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 |
| 15:55 | NEMOTRON 0x2023…1b7b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $47,083 | $28,304 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:52 | CHR 0x4275…c86a | pons-v2 | 34 | $18,621 | $10,192 | 1.06 | gateD:buy/sell 1.06 < 1.5 |
| 15:52 | FROGE 0x1df1…c719 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $179,958 | $16,904 | 0.20 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 15:45 | FRONG 0x6245…0c47 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 663 | $1,033,129 | $1,873,372 | 1.02 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 15:40 | ONGR 0xdcba…5ea9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:40 | Lasso 0x6874…3ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $30,157 | $7,239 | 0.56 | gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5 |
| 15:35 | MEOWSHI 0xefed…e0d7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 308 | $72,347 | $9,203 | 1.59 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:33 | SUSHISTOCK 0x5aa6…446d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 179 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:31 | SEEKHOOD 0x34d8…5c0d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 120 | $81,579 | $30,736 | 1.75 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:31 | SUSHISTOCK 0xb18c…a596 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $54,562 | $160,842 | 1.38 | gateD:buy/sell 1.38 < 1.5 |
| 15:29 | KIRK 0xadda…f598 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 108 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:21 | Him 0x0557…17c7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $0 | $0 | +5m honeypot veto: 27 buys and 0 sells |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 215 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 52 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 52 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 48 |
| gateD:features | 39 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 36 |
| gateD:liq | 35 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 31 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 30 |
| gateD:vol5 | 12 |
| C:copycat | 5 |
| C:sellSimStale | 5 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 4 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 4 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 2 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:ownerEoa | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1088 refusals checked at +1h so far. 96 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 860 | -9.8% | 36 |
| filterC | 225 | +63.4% | 60 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | QI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:30 | QI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:30 | AIR6900 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -4.2% | -4.1% |
| 17:30 | AIR6900 | gateD:liq $8541 < $10000 | d1 | -63.9% | -41.0% |
| 17:30 | AIR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| 17:30 | AUTOMATON | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 | d1 | -84.8% | -61.7% |
| 17:30 | MultiHopper | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -92.1% | -100.0% |
| 17:30 | IF | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -17.0% | -11.9% |
| 17:30 | MultiHopper | gateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5 | d1 | -80.4% | -56.3% |
| 17:30 | PAIRD | gateD:liq $5293 < $10000 | d1 | -22.2% | -13.2% |
| 17:30 | HOODER | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -83.0% | -58.7% |
| 17:30 | SHARE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:30 | ROVE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:30 | MARIO | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | +180.9% | +67.6% |
| 17:15 | AIR | gateD:vol5 $2785 < $5000 | d1 | -85.1% | -84.5% |
| 17:15 | REVA | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -91.0% | -70.5% |
| 17:15 | REVA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | QUBT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -3.6% | -29.8% |
| 17:15 | QI | gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5 | d1 | +179.7% | +93.7% |
| 17:15 | MM | gateD:vol5 $878 < $5000 | d1 | -31.4% | -30.8% |
| 17:15 | MM | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | GUESSR | gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5 | d1 | -91.3% | -71.0% |
| 17:15 | BLUECHIP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | BAGOFDICKS | gateD:liq $6916 < $10000 | h1 | -35.8% | -19.7% |
| 17:15 | ZFORGE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| 17:15 | AUK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +1.4% | +1.5% |
| 17:15 | ZenoCoin | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +419.4% | +206.5% |
| 17:15 | ALEXANDER | gateD:liq $7477 < $10000 | h1 | -53.6% | -30.3% |
| 17:00 | NEMOTRON | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +32.2% | +22.7% |
| 17:00 | G | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 | h1 | -79.1% | -54.3% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)