Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 21:22 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$305.22
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
9
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$33.91
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
10.8h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 48s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 66s ago ok
Socket events 17,127 · failsafes 8 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 4,523 rpc · 1,283 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

11,646
launches seen
→
369
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
63
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
9
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
9
opened

Refused: gate B 10,989 · gate D 296 · filter C 54 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 4 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2092-$305.22-$33.91
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (9)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
18:5019:21PEPEGOLD 0x19f3…d91bGold v210.4m31m1.32xstop-$50.72-50.7%B:99 buyers · D:liq $26193 vol5 $13163 b/s 1.67 · C:allowlist · size-up:99 distinct buyers in 30m
17:5718:01TUTANKHAMOOLAH 0x608f…d394Gold v213m4m1.89xtrail$6.87+13.7%B:37 buyers · D:liq $18337 vol5 $50604 b/s 1.59 · C:allowlist · single ticket
16:4916:57NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6Gold v212.1m8m1.03xconfirm_bail-$7.52-15.0%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17463 vol5 $9057 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · single ticket
16:0816:17Fork 0xa5fd…a71eGold v210.1m9m1.26xstop-$46.24-92.5%B:45 buyers · D:liq $17793 vol5 $9026 b/s 1.53 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:4313:13BNTR 0x12d1…68bbGold v211.3m90m1.36xmax_hold$0.70+1.4%B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:5111:54BUROS 0x1901…ace6Gold v210m3m1.00xstop-$55.00-55.0%B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m
11:2911:31GARDEN 0x5185…0d7aGold v213.9m2m1.00xstop-$65.65-65.7%B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m
10:5711:03Oilinu 0x54b7…d06cGold v213.5m6m1.00xstop-$26.94-53.9%B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket
10:5010:53CHIPR 0x6a80…9469Gold v210.2m3m1.00xstop-$60.72-60.7%B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set940not yet
Running days0.455not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$305.22> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%22%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 947 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
21:21etn 0x6e7a…fba3uniswap-v4-launchpad195$16,232$4141.00gateD:vol5 $414 < $5000
21:18psyopcat 0xf55f…16b8uniswap-v4-launchpad164$8,013$1,2094.60gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:18PCAT 0x6fb2…d137uniswap-v4-launchpad105$4,866$140.50gateD:liq $4866 < $10000
21:18STOCKTOKEN 0x9fd2…c275uniswap-v4-launchpad70$5,734$16,7000.68gateD:liq $5734 < $10000
21:16STOCKTOKEN 0x8ecc…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad90$27,888$2682.00gateD:vol5 $268 < $5000
21:16DUO 0x8c76…5ce9uniswap-v4-launchpad26$4,859$300.00gateD:liq $4859 < $10000
21:14Apes 0xd7fe…9266uniswap-v4-launchpad35$41,580$1,0751.20gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:13COGN 0x98e5…8ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad40$8,961$251.00gateD:liq $8961 < $10000
21:11DUO 0xaaf8…8120uniswap-v4-launchpad797$12,296$12,5840.76gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5
21:10WZAI 0x0db8…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad218$30,583$2,6730.80gateD:vol5 $2673 < $5000
21:10Duo 0x454d…4d39uniswap-v4-launchpad36$3,818$470.00gateD:liq $3818 < $10000
21:10IDUO 0x0cd7…be00uniswap-v4-launchpad241$6,962$7741.43gateD:liq $6962 < $10000
21:09DUO 0xf320…0b47uniswap-v4-launchpad128$100,009$47,1771.58filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:07OWNERSHIP 0xddf5…c2e3uniswap-v4-launchpad230$5,810$210.00gateD:liq $5810 < $10000
21:07OWNERSHIP 0x7016…cac7uniswap-v4-launchpad178$5,250$640.00gateD:liq $5250 < $10000
21:04DEPTH 0x96cb…2295uniswap-v4-launchpad79$12,870$9300.40gateD:vol5 $930 < $5000
21:03UNCODED 0xf669…7f3funiswap-v4-launchpad48$10,508$2,3980.80gateD:vol5 $2398 < $5000
21:03KIRK 0xb0f8…2acbuniswap-v4-launchpad408$6,343$1,9650.50gateD:liq $6343 < $10000
21:01Bliss 0xfb65…ea12uniswap-v4-launchpad64$52,249$29,8581.60filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:01GBOT 0x651c…0bc9uniswap-v4-launchpad247$6,585$4,9430.26gateD:liq $6585 < $10000
20:57GS 0x4dc4…a47auniswap-v4-launchpad591$8,160$1,1401.63gateD:liq $8160 < $10000
20:57GS 0x9c06…119buniswap-v4-launchpad504$18,056$15,7050.90gateD:buy/sell 0.90 < 1.5
20:57SACKS 0x46e4…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad37$20,984$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:57HEY 0xb33e…b610uniswap-v4-launchpad196$18,060$5,0441.12gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5
20:57HOT 0x4597…16ffuniswap-v4-launchpad429$18,634$32,9420.73gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
20:57GS 0x4578…a032uniswap-v4-launchpad95$4,374$119gateD:liq $4374 < $10000
20:55ESOK 0x40a3…8652uniswap-v4-launchpad32$8,511$1330.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
20:54CLUBY 0x7f26…c376uniswap-v4-launchpad241$29,794$30,5081.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
20:54PONSTREET 0x58a6…07d1uniswap-v4-launchpad28$3,846$692.00gateD:liq $3846 < $10000
20:54iRENT 0xfdba…c97buniswap-v4-launchpad69$6,083$2,5360.92gateD:liq $6083 < $10000
20:53DART 0x70a9…7b92uniswap-v4-launchpad37$11,628$1,5472.13gateD:vol5 $1547 < $5000
20:52ASCEND 0xdbdb…541duniswap-v4-launchpad91$55,853$8,6461.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:52IRENT 0xa755…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad27$20,946$272.00gateD:vol5 $27 < $5000
20:49TRUMP 0x2a0e…3701uniswap-v4-launchpad96$8,966$5301.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
20:47$HZTDONUT 0xcb05…ca46uniswap-v4-launchpad54$63,022$23,2022.25filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:47BOXCAT 0x1fea…bcebuniswap-v4-launchpad25$41,690$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:47TRIPLET 0x9a80…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad44$175,545$9,3860.30gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
20:47ASCEND 0x8525…99cduniswap-v4-launchpad72$15,587$17,7891.07gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5
20:47BITCOIN 0x1dd5…a178uniswap-v4-launchpad288$17,098$5,6770.46gateD:buy/sell 0.46 < 1.5
20:43EMPEROR 0x5745…a95auniswap-v4-launchpad102$6,516$2450.00gateD:liq $6516 < $10000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool110
gateD:liq53
gateD:features50
C:notV2VsWeth43
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager43
C:creatorShareUnknown43
gateD:poolMismatch33
C:swapsH1<25028
gateD:buy/sell27
gateD:vol523
C:sellSim7
C:sellSimStale4
C:tapeRatio>42

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

850 refusals checked at +1h so far. 69 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD684-7.9%30
filterC165+61.2%39
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
21:15HoodlanafilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+64.5%+41.6%
21:15ROADSTERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
21:15AMERICAgateD:liq $6950 < $10000d1-63.5%-39.6%
21:15SWEEPgateD:liq $5777 < $10000d1-28.6%-15.1%
21:15FUNDSgateD:liq $4770 < $10000d1-3.0%-1.1%
21:15GauntletgateD:liq $5085 < $10000d1-10.9%-5.5%
21:15STONKgateD:liq $5972 < $10000d1-29.8%-15.3%
21:15DOOgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-16.9%-16.1%
21:15doomgateD:liq $5079 < $10000h1-10.8%-9.3%
21:00ZDOGgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+7.0%+7.0%
21:00DFCfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+151.0%+88.7%
21:00VIBECATgateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5d1-83.8%-59.6%
21:00S&P500gateD:liq $5413 < $10000d1-49.9%-29.6%
21:00dividendsfilterC:sellSimd1-92.0%-71.7%
21:00SAgateD:liq $5679 < $10000d1-49.1%-28.6%
21:00pdomgateD:liq $7800 < $10000h1-30.7%-16.8%
21:00catfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
21:00doomgateD:buy/sell 1.08 < 1.5h1+121.5%+48.9%
21:00BOXCATgateD:liq $3661 < $10000h1-7.1%-3.5%
20:45ROBI NHOODgateD:liq $7003 < $10000d1-70.4%-45.5%
20:45BURISMAgateD:vol5 $2484 < $5000d1-80.0%-55.2%
20:45XMRCATgateD:vol5 $37 < $5000d1-14.7%-14.4%
20:45SPECSgateD:liq $7693 < $10000d1-32.2%-17.8%
20:45GodotgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1n/an/a
20:45TAOgateD:vol5 $62 < $5000h1+2.8%+3.7%
20:45CarlyfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+104.8%+63.9%
20:45HOODINUgateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5d1-93.0%-73.5%
20:30VEEFgateD:liq $0 < $10000d1-0.5%n/a
20:30KOLgateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5d1-94.4%-76.2%
20:30ARCTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-29.9%-17.5%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)