Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 05:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
7.1h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 1s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 9s ago ok
Socket events 9,506 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,866 rpc · 778 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
6,739
launches seen
→
135
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
14
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 6,442 · gate D 114 · filter C 13 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $6.14 | $6.14 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.29 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $6.14 | > $0 | met |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 100% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1023 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:32 | Plumber 0x0758…6002 | pons-v2 | 36 | $10,013 | $25,353 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 05:28 | DIVIDEND 0xc6e5…a712 | pons-v2 | 37 | $10,054 | $10,785 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 05:23 | Trumpdrop 0xd241…11a7 | pons-v2 | 35 | $24,634 | $87,049 | 1.62 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 05:01 | MEAD 0x68b9…1e18 | pons-v2 | 27 | $19,684 | $24,363 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 04:56 | MEAD 0x80b2…4115 | pons-v2 | 43 | $5,249 | $922 | 0.55 | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 |
| 04:47 | Rialto 0xe0fb…b7c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $19,469 | $18,562 | 1.59 | filterC:sellSim |
| 04:37 | ETFAM 0xd709…9a9d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $21,650 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:24 | SNDK 0xb90a…6400 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $350,893 | $1,274 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:17 | CANAL 0xb796…aec8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 174 | $108,056 | $27,960 | 2.15 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:16 | PLUME 0xa0d6…25cd | pons-v2 | 45 | $6,901 | $207 | 2.00 | gateD:liq $6901 < $10000 |
| 04:14 | ND4DOTETH 0x416d…24cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $7,191 | $1,658 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $7191 < $10000 |
| 04:09 | LUCY 0x2acb…d628 | pons-v2 | 37 | $7,252 | $14,997 | 0.79 | gateD:liq $7252 < $10000 |
| 03:45 | CUP 0xd475…0ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 505 | $59,674 | $73,753 | 0.66 | gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5 |
| 03:36 | STEP 0xffc3…440b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 134 | $34,965 | $37,681 | 0.93 | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 |
| 03:32 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | pons-v2 | 36 | $17,355 | $17,956 | 1.52 | ADMITTED |
| 03:31 | MSFT 0xe932…2e74 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $796,419 | $43,973 | 0.97 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:25 | MIDORI 0xf608…244e | pons-v2 | 22 | $7,499 | $54,226 | 1.06 | gateD:liq $7499 < $10000 |
| 03:22 | MIDORI 0x10e9…fe2d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 150 | $111,510 | $70,185 | 2.13 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:22 | ROKO 0x6206…fd43 | pons-v2 | 38 | $14,672 | $74,061 | 1.20 | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 |
| 03:19 | MIDORI 0x2723…0f1e | pons-v2 | 25 | $33,757 | $253,507 | 0.91 | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 |
| 03:13 | BRDY 0x884b…c6c5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 120 | $57,203 | $25,717 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:07 | VEEFO 0xcbbf…bba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $7,409 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:59 | IRA 0x32ae…9304 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $62,588 | $30,129 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:59 | AGI 0x101c…8be5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 204 | $25,421 | $25,067 | 1.92 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:53 | DUO 0x234b…04dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $68,363 | $34,530 | 1.60 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:42 | Jacob 0x3df3…06f1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $95,697 | $8,700 | 2.24 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:15 | rob 0x8c56…7b0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $36,280 | $17,323 | 1.95 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:57 | PONS 0x39db…4571 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $5,700,701 | $97 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:49 | YIELD 0x5b2c…7515 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $6,169 | $277 | 1.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:49 | NU 0x408c…e250 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $55,825 | $5,249 | 0.82 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:39 | FUCK 0x0f3b…84c3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $9,688 | $5,166 | 5.86 | gateD:liq $9688 < $10000 |
| 01:36 | I 0xa94e…8889 | pons-v2 | 32 | $20,605 | $19,476 | 1.35 | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 |
| 01:25 | SHROOM 0xab09…5b29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $331,861 | $2,039 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:22 | 🍏 0x8c0d…8e3c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $8,747 | $2,531 | 0.34 | gateD:liq $8747 < $10000 |
| 01:22 | MIRAGEFI 0x6d39…f42e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $10,518 | $198 | gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000 | |
| 01:17 | BATWIF 0x67c1…627a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $1,346 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:09 | ROB 0xbfbb…8f04 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $50,307 | $14,139 | 2.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:04 | Billycoin 0x1e73…f022 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $52,469 | $22,627 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:02 | WORKS 0x918c…b854 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $13,195 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:02 | vell 0x3275…be9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $40,986 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 65 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 20 |
| gateD:liq | 12 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 11 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 11 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 10 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 9 |
| gateD:features | 8 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 8 |
| C:copycat | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| gateD:vol5 | 1 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
| C:sellSimStale | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
955 refusals checked at +1h so far. 84 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 770 | -8.4% | 35 |
| filterC | 184 | +65.3% | 49 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | tip | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -73.7% | -65.6% |
| 05:30 | TREE | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 | d1 | -93.8% | -75.1% |
| 05:30 | NCLD | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 | d1 | -46.1% | -38.4% |
| 05:30 | B6PW | gateD:vol5 $1621 < $5000 | d1 | -12.0% | -7.2% |
| 05:30 | TREE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -93.8% | -85.7% |
| 05:30 | PLUME | gateD:liq $6901 < $10000 | h1 | -69.5% | -44.8% |
| 05:30 | CANAL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +8.7% | +4.3% |
| 05:30 | SNDK | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.1% | -2.2% |
| 05:15 | CRIB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -44.9% | -40.8% |
| 05:15 | Glasses | gateD:liq $5679 < $10000 | d1 | -57.4% | -34.8% |
| 05:15 | SHOPCAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 05:15 | Swagcat | gateD:liq $5130 < $10000 | d1 | -47.1% | -27.3% |
| 05:15 | THC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +1.8% | +1.1% |
| 05:15 | SHOPPY | gateD:liq $7019 < $10000 | d1 | -48.3% | -43.3% |
| 05:15 | LUCY | gateD:liq $7252 < $10000 | h1 | +86.0% | +36.4% |
| 05:15 | ND4DOTETH | gateD:liq $7191 < $10000 | h1 | -57.9% | -51.5% |
| 05:00 | SHOPCAT | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 | d1 | -77.5% | -61.0% |
| 05:00 | CUP | gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5 | h1 | +142.4% | +74.6% |
| 05:00 | PLXMS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -50.4% | -30.0% |
| 04:45 | SHROOM | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -2.7% | -0.5% |
| 04:45 | ZKSWAP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -17.3% | -9.8% |
| 04:45 | MSFT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.0% | +1.6% |
| 04:45 | STEP | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 | h1 | -17.1% | -9.1% |
| 04:45 | FORGE | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -95.3% | -78.4% |
| 04:30 | STOCKLESS | gateD:vol5 $1703 < $5000 | d1 | -73.3% | -65.1% |
| 04:30 | RARE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +1.6% | +1.5% |
| 04:30 | MIDORI | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 | h1 | -47.7% | -27.8% |
| 04:30 | ROKO | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 | h1 | -84.3% | -60.4% |
| 04:30 | MIDORI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +65.1% | +34.3% |
| 04:30 | MIDORI | gateD:liq $7499 < $10000 | h1 | -42.8% | -24.8% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)