Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 11:18 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
12.8h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 20s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 36s ago ok
Socket events 14,625 · failsafes 8 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 5,699 rpc · 1,662 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

9,958
launches seen
255
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
33
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
1
opened

Refused: gate B 9,571 · gate D 217 · filter C 32 · vetoed 1 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2011$6.14$6.14
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (1)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
03:3203:36Tomo 0x8661…3472Gold v215.3m4m1.84xtrail$6.14+12.3%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set140not yet
Running days0.535not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$6.14> $0met
Win rate inside 50 to 73%100%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1082 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
11:08OS 0xe4e1…5ceapons-v230$20,250$64,8521.07gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5
10:57QUNEK 0x6486…1ce1pons-v2101$4$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:51SCOOP 0x491d…1e24uniswap-v4-launchpad28$13,166$2,2030.76gateD:vol5 $2203 < $5000
10:35BALLOON 0x0a3d…efb3pons-v274$15,625$21,7521.39gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5
10:01SleepCoin 0x78aa…ed61pons-v2103$34,662$166,6781.12gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5
09:55DRAFT 0x5be0…187auniswap-v4-launchpad80$43,701$16,2237.18filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
09:33MEAT 0x29b6…3adfuniswap-v4-launchpad119$67,523$19,8211.42gateD:buy/sell 1.42 < 1.5
09:27Moo 0xd10e…b115uniswap-v4-launchpad67$32,208$5,4541.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
09:20MEAT 0x84ea…b6d9uniswap-v4-launchpad109$70,605$26,2381.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
09:12MEAT 0x3709…4333pons-v259$22,122$70,8120.98gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5
09:11FLY 0x0072…1224uniswap-v4-launchpad27$39,066$26,7751.68filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
09:01RETIRE 0xda41…efc5uniswap-v4-launchpad26$44,493$0+5m honeypot veto: 21 buys and 0 sells
08:52FLYBRAIN 0x2541…446buniswap-v4-launchpad20$15,518$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
08:4924k 0x6817…955cuniswap-v4-launchpad188$36,488$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
08:4924k 0x149a…f4feuniswap-v4-launchpad31$44,813$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
08:39DARTH 0x04d2…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad33$22,658$322.00gateD:vol5 $32 < $5000
08:3424K 0xdfac…0e7bpons-v238$15,889$8,9001.66filterC:sellSimStale
08:30JVMI 0x7631…c3cbuniswap-v4-launchpad170$25,176$28,4480.45gateD:buy/sell 0.45 < 1.5
08:24STOATRADE 0x4c21…34f2uniswap-v4-launchpad26$16,749$6,0060.70gateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5
08:21BRIAN 0x2cca…7cccuniswap-v4-launchpad53$8,451$310.50gateD:liq $8451 < $10000
08:19BRIAN 0xbc9a…93beuniswap-v4-launchpad110$47,724$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
08:15BRIAN 0x2e9d…6e02uniswap-v4-launchpad22$3,958$1780.00gateD:liq $3958 < $10000
08:00VC 0x4437…926auniswap-v4-launchpad181$63,250$27,3111.56filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:48PRELIST 0xcbcd…e059uniswap-v4-launchpad37$72,464$5,74317.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
07:48brian 0xf98a…522euniswap-v4-launchpad90$7,009$6,0170.57gateD:liq $7009 < $10000
07:47FLY 0x086c…0996uniswap-v4-launchpad150$56,310$5,7050.50gateD:buy/sell 0.50 < 1.5
07:46FLY 0x6c5a…b8eduniswap-v4-launchpad56$37,760$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:46OPZEMPINU 0x1132…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad124$29,350$1,6561.80gateD:vol5 $1656 < $5000
07:41SDR 0xae24…f1d1uniswap-v4-launchpad61$17,087$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:38CARDMOON 0x773c…7ddcuniswap-v4-launchpad143$92,738$74,8031.56filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:36iHOLD 0xf26d…de9cuniswap-v4-launchpad151$90,390$19,6721.86filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:29MKT 0x7490…964auniswap-v4-launchpad219$83,929$17,4282.55filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:28PENNY 0xb270…6a4dpons-v232$16,035$17,1661.60filterC:sellSimStale
07:24iHOLD 0x94b9…a119pons-v270$13,875$9,9411.11gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5
07:23MKT 0x12b6…a6a1pons-v2103$26,146$137,1941.50filterC:sellSimStale
07:19HOLD 0x0645…37aduniswap-v4-launchpad166$61,000$9,5802.61filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:18HOLD 0x8daf…612cpons-v239$8,562$28,2170.76gateD:liq $8562 < $10000
07:08flysim 0x517b…6aacuniswap-v4-launchpad49$29,146$7,8710.63gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:59BTC 0x53ce…1405uniswap-v4-launchpad215$7,592$8140.23gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:50LOCKHEEDINU 0xba60…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad29$39,695$941.25gateD:vol5 $94 < $5000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool129
C:notV2VsWeth27
C:creatorShareUnknown27
gateD:poolMismatch25
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager24
gateD:liq20
C:swapsH1<25018
gateD:buy/sell18
gateD:features17
gateD:vol58
C:sellSimStale4
C:lpNotVerifiable:none3
C:copycat3
C:tapeRatio>42
C:sellSim1
C:liquidityUnder$250001
veto:+5m zero sells1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1017 refusals checked at +1h so far. 88 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD810-9.2%35
filterC205+59.9%53
+5m honeypot veto20.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
11:15ODYSSEYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
11:15tipgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-96.4%-89.6%
11:15CITYgateD:liq $4246 < $10000d1-24.3%-13.0%
11:15CITYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+134.5%+68.5%
11:15RECEIPTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-22.6%-12.8%
11:15SleepCoingateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5h1-77.2%-52.3%
11:00$PHUBfilterC:sellSimStaled1-91.9%-71.7%
11:00PARLEYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-56.8%-34.8%
11:00DOGSHITgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+26.6%+10.1%
11:00SPINgateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5d1-84.4%-60.9%
11:00MANYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+61.2%+25.9%
11:00DRILLgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-0.6%-1.0%
11:00SPINgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-36.0%n/a
11:00ZZZgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-20.3%-11.4%
11:00discordgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-94.6%n/a
11:00NVDAgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-1.4%-5.8%
11:00FRCTgateD:vol5 $2155 < $5000d1-92.3%-72.3%
11:00SPINfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-8.9%-5.6%
11:00USDGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+0.0%-3.8%
11:00DRAFTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+47.5%-100.0%
10:45MEATgateD:buy/sell 1.42 < 1.5h1+3.4%+2.3%
10:30BILLYgateD:liq $7795 < $10000d1-64.5%-40.5%
10:30H100gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5d1-89.9%-68.3%
10:30H100gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5d1n/an/a
10:30MEATfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
10:30MoofilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+17.3%+12.7%
10:15RETIRE+5m honeypot veto: 21 buys and 0 sellsh10.0%0.0%
10:15FLYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownh1+21.2%+11.4%
10:15MEATgateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5h1-90.5%-69.1%
10:00VfilterC:sellSimStaled1-99.3%-91.8%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)