Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 21:24 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$3.27
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$1.09
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
22.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 2m ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 2m ago silent
Socket events 26,848 · failsafes 9 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 10,369 rpc · 3,068 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
17,611
launches seen
→
564
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
79
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
3
opened
Refused: gate B 16,792 · gate D 482 · filter C 76 · vetoed 2 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -$3.27 | -$1.09 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (3)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:51 | 18:59 | FARMINGCROPNFT 0xa6f1…175b | Gold v2 | 14.8m | 8m | 1.00x | confirm_bail | -$61.68 | -61.7% | B:505 buyers · D:liq $35396 vol5 $45498 b/s 1.91 · C:allowlist · size-up:557 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 16:20 | 16:39 | ANY 0x2d51…b963 | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 19m | 5.44x | trail | $52.27 | +104.5% | B:33 buyers · D:liq $14822 vol5 $15894 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 3 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.95 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$3.27 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 67% | 50 to 73% | met |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1256 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:15 | PIZZABOT 0x75d2…8552 | pons-v2 | 46 | $15,814 | $19,993 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 21:12 | DLM 0xa90a…9425 | pons-v2 | 62 | $6,983 | $10,011 | 0.75 | gateD:liq $6983 < $10000 |
| 21:10 | FLYBRAIN 0x49ca…93e8 | pons-v2 | 24 | $10,525 | $6,894 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSim |
| 20:55 | KEKIUS 0x9eb4…3817 | pons-v2 | 32 | $14,238 | $12,458 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 20:30 | STNKCHD 0x85df…5485 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $17,796 | $694 | 0.83 | gateD:vol5 $694 < $5000 |
| 20:30 | BLOB 0x105f…d0cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 269 | $22,909 | $2,186 | 1.08 | gateD:vol5 $2186 < $5000 |
| 20:29 | EYWA 0x3d27…eb02 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 104 | $89,981 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:26 | FEEZ 0x88e0…2062 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 55 | $27,506 | $10,718 | 1.65 | filterC:sellSim |
| 20:23 | FEYNMAN 0x6770…0ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $15,607 | $2,585 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $2585 < $5000 |
| 20:21 | credit 0xf387…4ee3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $54,462 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:13 | credit 0x4c8f…ef4a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 197 | $30,345 | $48,424 | 1.48 | gateD:buy/sell 1.48 < 1.5 |
| 20:12 | RBNHD 0x798a…4231 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 131 | $5,112 | $163 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5112 < $10000 |
| 20:11 | RBNHD 0xa6c2…9679 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 344 | $8,002 | $6,342 | 1.02 | gateD:liq $8002 < $10000 |
| 20:10 | Yo-yo 0xf4cc…009c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $22,036 | $15,733 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 20:09 | FLY 0x57b3…fbbc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $37,793 | $11,985 | 1.86 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:09 | BUILDING 0x9bb8…8dcc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 361 | $6,598 | $379 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $6598 < $10000 |
| 20:08 | AUTON 0x3765…9436 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $55,427 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:06 | BUILDING 0x8806…7bef | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 289 | $68,854 | $21,789 | 1.76 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:05 | egregore 0x8a6a…c0f4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 330 | $36,851 | $207,283 | 1.34 | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 |
| 20:04 | RMD 0xfe64…fd2b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 160 | $6,444 | $24,882 | 1.13 | gateD:liq $6444 < $10000 |
| 20:04 | AUTON 0x5e1e…5eab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 309 | $6,656 | $266 | 0.20 | gateD:liq $6656 < $10000 |
| 20:01 | AICAT 0x2bce…23f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 133 | $17,202 | $810 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $810 < $5000 |
| 20:00 | MANY 0xa269…287d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $156,511 | $39,298 | 1.48 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:59 | THEO 0x3dc7…da48 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 89 | $122,453 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:55 | MACRO 0x33fa…b065 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $69,933 | $32,982 | 1.34 | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 |
| 19:53 | MACRO 0xbb09…4ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1317 | $119,773 | $114,964 | 0.66 | gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5 |
| 19:49 | KIRK 0xe1fd…2f6b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $46,282 | $26,375 | 1.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:48 | GME2 0x7812…6086 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 189 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:46 | EDEN 0x9420…c9b6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 322 | $21,904 | $41,091 | 1.26 | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 |
| 19:45 | CAT 0x3037…a303 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $5,022 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:45 | EDEN 0xe6b2…1877 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 462 | $136,892 | $11,220 | 1.85 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:43 | P I N 0x4d7d…5c00 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 177 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:43 | Yield 0x13c1…fa82 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $4,642 | $46 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $4642 < $10000 |
| 19:41 | CAT 0x9012…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $20,413 | $9 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $9 < $5000 |
| 19:41 | CAT 0xf1fc…7c64 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 253 | $5,999 | $1,313 | 0.61 | gateD:liq $5999 < $10000 |
| 19:39 | FLY 0x6a03…86f5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $5,362 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:38 | MARIO 0xb713…0598 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 243 | $4,921 | $6 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4921 < $10000 |
| 19:37 | DESK 0x5340…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 107 | $52,164 | $7,887 | 0.53 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:36 | P I N 0xfaef…e030 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $4,061 | $45 | 0.13 | gateD:liq $4061 < $10000 |
| 19:32 | PENNY 0xa72b…ad29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 217 | $23,872 | $24,099 | 1.05 | gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 264 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 65 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 65 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 61 |
| gateD:features | 56 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 54 |
| gateD:liq | 53 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 42 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 34 |
| gateD:vol5 | 18 |
| C:copycat | 6 |
| C:sellSimStale | 6 |
| C:sellSim | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 5 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 4 |
| missed the window | 3 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 2 |
| C:ownerEoa | 2 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
| C:selectors:mint | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1183 refusals checked at +1h so far. 107 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 933 | -9.9% | 41 |
| filterC | 247 | +59.8% | 66 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:15 | Bliss | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +105.1% | +63.8% |
| 21:15 | KIRK | gateD:liq $6343 < $10000 | d1 | -51.1% | -30.0% |
| 21:15 | UNCODED | gateD:vol5 $2398 < $5000 | d1 | -23.6% | -13.0% |
| 21:15 | DEPTH | gateD:vol5 $930 < $5000 | d1 | -85.1% | -61.8% |
| 21:15 | OWNERSHIP | gateD:liq $5810 < $10000 | d1 | -55.8% | -33.5% |
| 21:15 | OWNERSHIP | gateD:liq $5250 < $10000 | d1 | -46.6% | -27.0% |
| 21:15 | DUO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 21:15 | WZAI | gateD:vol5 $2673 < $5000 | d1 | -25.3% | -22.6% |
| 21:15 | Duo | gateD:liq $3818 < $10000 | d1 | -16.2% | -7.9% |
| 21:15 | IDUO | gateD:liq $6962 < $10000 | d1 | -70.2% | -45.1% |
| 21:15 | DUO | gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5 | d1 | -70.2% | -44.5% |
| 21:15 | COGN | gateD:liq $8961 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 21:15 | Apes | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -64.4% | -43.3% |
| 21:15 | MANY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +103.7% | +43.0% |
| 21:15 | AICAT | gateD:vol5 $810 < $5000 | h1 | -13.8% | -8.3% |
| 21:15 | RMD | gateD:liq $6444 < $10000 | h1 | -37.3% | -20.8% |
| 21:15 | AUTON | gateD:liq $6656 < $10000 | h1 | -36.9% | -20.3% |
| 21:15 | egregore | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 | h1 | -71.8% | -48.3% |
| 21:15 | BUILDING | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:15 | AUTON | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:15 | BUILDING | gateD:liq $6598 < $10000 | h1 | -45.9% | -26.5% |
| 21:15 | FLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +11.0% | +8.9% |
| 21:15 | Yo-yo | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | h1 | -22.9% | -12.0% |
| 21:15 | RBNHD | gateD:liq $8002 < $10000 | h1 | -44.9% | -25.8% |
| 21:15 | RBNHD | gateD:liq $5112 < $10000 | h1 | -5.8% | -3.0% |
| 21:15 | credit | gateD:buy/sell 1.48 < 1.5 | h1 | -96.9% | -82.4% |
| 21:15 | GBOT | gateD:liq $6585 < $10000 | d1 | -44.9% | -26.3% |
| 21:00 | BITCOIN | gateD:buy/sell 0.46 < 1.5 | d1 | +3082.5% | +443.7% |
| 21:00 | $HZTDONUT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 21:00 | TRUMP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -50.5% | -42.2% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)