Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 05:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
4.9h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status STALE
State written 3m ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 3m ago silent
Socket events 7,770 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,099 rpc · 595 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
4,572
launches seen
→
217
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
14
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 4,154 · gate D 185 · filter C 14 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.20 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1371 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | NET 0x325b…6d53 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 165 | $116,718 | $78,139 | 2.60 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:27 | Ara 0x1e88…9cc5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 139 | $79,939 | $23,251 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:26 | STONKS 0x22fd…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 133 | $21,124 | $7 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $7 < $5000 |
| 05:26 | VORTA 0xe3e5…1b81 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $48,287 | $2,400 | 2.33 | gateD:vol5 $2400 < $5000 |
| 05:22 | NET 0xe6ed…cbd3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 127 | $109,361 | $16,290 | 2.57 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:22 | NET 0x116f…01d4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $99,002 | $21,021 | 0.40 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:20 | NET 0xb4dc…7fbd | pons-v2 | 49 | $22,882 | $20,891 | 0.90 | gateD:buy/sell 0.90 < 1.5 |
| 05:15 | FLYBRAIN 0x49ca…93e8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $10,121 | $6,470 | 0.86 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:14 | NEMA 0xb828…cd7d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $74,705 | $34,371 | 2.07 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:14 | Ara 0xecf5…636f | pons-v2 | 78 | $20,695 | $14,629 | 1.57 | filterC:sellSim |
| 05:11 | TEST 0xd00d…70d3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 92 | $33,891 | $49,947 | 1.62 | filterC:sellSim |
| 05:05 | BZZZ 0x8e3c…5e29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 149 | $11,656 | $6,566 | 0.80 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:05 | RP 0xa386…d8e0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $22,056 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:59 | DESK 0x5340…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $42,579 | $7,453 | 0.69 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:54 | Fartcoin 0x56a5…9d8f | pons-v2 | 22 | $5,934 | $46 | 3.00 | gateD:liq $5934 < $10000 |
| 04:54 | RHFLY 0x6280…c7f5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 84 | $68,104 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:50 | LUCKYMAN 0xeffc…8759 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $74,927 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:41 | CHRONOA 0xdd09…a1fa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $14,877 | $3,001 | 0.53 | gateD:vol5 $3001 < $5000 |
| 04:33 | P 0x2163…c91d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $7,553 | $284 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:19 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 81 | $156,330 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 04:14 | PONS 0x39db…4571 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $6,939,804 | $248 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:08 | RILIE 0x0c05…d1cc | pons-v2 | 43 | $10,821 | $24,341 | 1.19 | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 |
| 04:05 | QINU 0xc79c…a852 | pons-v2 | 28 | $15,957 | $11,933 | 1.30 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 |
| 04:05 | COCK 0x1802…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $824 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:54 | PLUS 0x8c1d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 353 | $65,877 | $17,622 | 0.87 | gateD:buy/sell 0.87 < 1.5 |
| 03:52 | DOOMFLY 0x1b80…a37a | pons-v2 | 72 | $13,438 | $3,705 | 1.39 | gateD:vol5 $3705 < $5000 |
| 03:51 | SLING 0x3a10…f4d7 | pons-v2 | 49 | $9,310 | $3,655 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $9310 < $10000 |
| 03:47 | + 0x8b4c…3ad4 | pons-v2 | 20 | $6,122 | $13,754 | 1.36 | gateD:liq $6122 < $10000 |
| 03:44 | + 0xf014…ebff | pons-v2 | 33 | $90,733 | $740,608 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 03:42 | Teddy 0xf0bf…9201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $5,385 | $1,061 | 0.13 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:41 | TEDDY 0x8232…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 390 | $26,073 | $4,944 | 1.10 | gateD:vol5 $4944 < $5000 |
| 03:40 | TEDDY 0xc8bf…93bb | pons-v2 | 44 | $3,911 | $125 | 3.00 | gateD:liq $3911 < $10000 |
| 03:40 | Teddy 0xa6b2…b4cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 311 | $10,274 | $26,742 | 0.62 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:39 | +++++ 0xaf5f…3847 | pons-v2 | 22 | $4,658 | $433 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4658 < $10000 |
| 03:38 | GAP 0x65c9…8d48 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 135 | $34,775 | $35,612 | 0.49 | gateD:buy/sell 0.49 < 1.5 |
| 03:38 | NOODZ 0x949e…5370 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $6,981 | $6,275 | 0.27 | gateD:liq $6981 < $10000 |
| 03:37 | +++++ 0x6ef1…e6cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $37,452 | $12,326 | 2.24 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:29 | MOLLY 0x7cec…012a | pons-v2 | 38 | $6,292 | $6,130 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $6292 < $10000 |
| 02:36 | CUMMIES 0x4b08…1d43 | pons-v2 | 31 | $6,462 | $420 | 0.75 | gateD:liq $6462 < $10000 |
| 02:36 | CPU 0x00c7…47b7 | pons-v2 | 34 | $37,764 | $39,265 | 1.16 | gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 109 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 32 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 14 |
| gateD:liq | 12 |
| gateD:features | 9 |
| gateD:vol5 | 9 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 9 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 9 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 8 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 7 |
| C:sellSim | 5 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1285 refusals checked at +1h so far. 119 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1023 | -9.9% | 50 |
| filterC | 259 | +57.9% | 69 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | Trumpdrop | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -87.8% | -65.5% |
| 05:30 | DIVIDEND | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | d1 | -74.7% | -50.2% |
| 05:30 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 05:15 | COCK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -3.9% | -3.1% |
| 05:15 | QINU | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 | h1 | -78.6% | -53.7% |
| 05:15 | RILIE | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 | h1 | -32.2% | -17.6% |
| 05:15 | PONS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +1.0% | +2.5% |
| 05:15 | MEAD | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 | d1 | -94.1% | -75.7% |
| 05:00 | MEAD | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 | d1 | -43.9% | -25.0% |
| 05:00 | + | gateD:liq $6122 < $10000 | h1 | -64.2% | -40.2% |
| 05:00 | SLING | gateD:liq $9310 < $10000 | h1 | -53.4% | -31.7% |
| 05:00 | DOOMFLY | gateD:vol5 $3705 < $5000 | h1 | -92.6% | -72.8% |
| 05:00 | PLUS | gateD:buy/sell 0.87 < 1.5 | h1 | -53.8% | -41.4% |
| 05:00 | Rialto | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -68.7% | -44.3% |
| 04:45 | ETFAM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -5.5% | -99.8% |
| 04:45 | +++++ | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +220.1% | +130.5% |
| 04:45 | NOODZ | gateD:liq $6981 < $10000 | h1 | -68.7% | -59.5% |
| 04:45 | GAP | gateD:buy/sell 0.49 < 1.5 | h1 | -90.4% | -69.0% |
| 04:45 | +++++ | gateD:liq $4658 < $10000 | h1 | -50.8% | -29.9% |
| 04:45 | TEDDY | gateD:liq $3911 < $10000 | h1 | -9.1% | -4.7% |
| 04:45 | Teddy | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -61.8% | -38.2% |
| 04:45 | TEDDY | gateD:vol5 $4944 < $5000 | h1 | -9.0% | -8.0% |
| 04:45 | Teddy | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -16.6% | -15.4% |
| 04:45 | + | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | h1 | +4.5% | +2.2% |
| 04:30 | PLUME | gateD:liq $6901 < $10000 | d1 | -67.4% | -42.8% |
| 04:30 | CANAL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +4.4% | +0.5% |
| 04:30 | SNDK | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -3.6% | -59.9% |
| 04:30 | MOLLY | gateD:liq $6292 < $10000 | h1 | +0.8% | +0.4% |
| 04:15 | LUCY | gateD:liq $7252 < $10000 | d1 | -71.8% | -46.8% |
| 04:15 | ND4DOTETH | gateD:liq $7191 < $10000 | d1 | -57.9% | -51.5% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)