Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 11:38 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
11.0h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 16s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 14,597 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 4,952 rpc · 1,417 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
9,120
launches seen
→
446
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
39
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 8,549 · gate D 400 · filter C 39 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.46 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1506 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:36 | HASHTOWN 0xbe00…ce11 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 124 | $77,792 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:13 | EMILE 0x80fe…c8fa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 122 | $62,737 | $20,272 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:05 | AGI 0xf793…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 378 | $3,366 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:03 | Bullions 0x108c…c265 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $19,615 | $2,561 | 1.56 | gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000 |
| 11:02 | AGI 0xa058…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $3,275 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:02 | ei 0x2634…5aca | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 98 | $73,256 | $8,752 | 1.82 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:01 | FLLY 0x1f7f…1c01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $4,734 | $602 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4734 < $10000 |
| 10:59 | INU 0x8202…8ae6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 351 | $78,412 | $20,715 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:49 | FRIES 0x54d3…32fe | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $0 | $0 | 0.85 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:45 | HIGHER 0xcf9b…5c7f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $57 | $4 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $57 < $10000 |
| 10:43 | COPPERINU 0x2bbb…4e3f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $8,609 | $233 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $8609 < $10000 |
| 10:36 | WM 0x93ec…a773 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $0 | $0 | 0.21 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:29 | WEED 0x24cb…c247 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $0 | $0 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:26 | SCOUT 0x6aa5…2352 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $20,354 | $5,270 | 0.75 | gateD:buy/sell 0.75 < 1.5 |
| 10:24 | electricity 0xb3f7…dcf2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $58,760 | $8,924 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:23 | FKH 0xbe1e…fc5d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $12 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:22 | 420 0x4b8e…7896 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $0 | $0 | 7.58 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:15 | BULL 0xcbd8…0f4d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $72 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:11 | BUFO 0xddd9…8e3d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $34,183 | $13,982 | 1.77 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:09 | FLOYD 0x3e1e…389b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $0 | $0 | 0.29 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:08 | WELD 0xaf0a…3d01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $4,014 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:07 | MUNCHIES 0x6f43…3737 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $112 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:05 | BUFO 0x9582…2167 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $6,245 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:05 | GRILL 0x9df0…1e4b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 230 | $56 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:03 | ei 0x1b16…6104 | pons-v2 | 77 | $12 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 09:58 | TTT 0xcee5…303b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $8,359 | $1,437 | 0.60 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:57 | NUTS 0x9243…a895 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $4,560 | $229 | gateD:liq $4560 < $10000 | |
| 09:56 | LAMB 0x621a…05d8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $4,973 | $276 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4973 < $10000 |
| 09:56 | Townies 0x42ed…919e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $5,645 | $5 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5645 < $10000 |
| 09:44 | LIQUITITTY 0x2358…6a81 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $0 | $0 | 2.70 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 09:44 | FLYSWATTER 0x178d…7d45 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 103 | $67,397 | $14,078 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:38 | ASS 0x967e…bf63 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 76 | $51,820 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 09:35 | PHARM 0x4e4a…14c2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $0 | $3 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | |
| 09:32 | EASE 0x3151…fecb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $15,577 | $12,983 | 1.94 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:32 | FLYSWATTER 0x1b85…5354 | pons-v2 | 45 | $0 | $0 | 5.00 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 09:28 | ASS 0x5d79…1ad0 | pons-v2 | 26 | $16,448 | $30,041 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 09:25 | FGAY 0x70ca…296c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 177 | $30,101 | $8,712 | 1.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:08 | SERVER 0xf323…e24d | pons-v2 | 27 | $8,754 | $1,681 | 1.89 | gateD:liq $8754 < $10000 |
| 09:08 | eliza 0x3993…d10d | pons-v2 | 28 | $7,035 | $21,245 | 1.32 | gateD:liq $7035 < $10000 |
| 09:01 | WIRE 0xca3e…cfb9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 182 | $54,073 | $19,268 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 209 |
| gateD:features | 52 |
| gateD:liq | 46 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 44 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 29 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 28 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 28 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 26 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 20 |
| gateD:vol5 | 15 |
| C:sellSim | 11 |
| missed the window | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1427 refusals checked at +1h so far. 130 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1137 | -8.5% | 58 |
| filterC | 287 | +51.9% | 72 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BURNTEST | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | d1 | +248.6% | -100.0% |
| 11:30 | FEET | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 | d1 | -77.6% | -53.4% |
| 11:30 | BULL | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11:30 | 420 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:30 | FKH | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11:30 | electricity | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -14.8% | -10.9% |
| 11:30 | SCOUT | gateD:buy/sell 0.75 < 1.5 | h1 | -5.5% | -2.8% |
| 11:30 | WEED | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:15 | OS | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 | d1 | -92.3% | -72.2% |
| 11:15 | ei | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -56.3% | +95672.7% |
| 11:15 | GRILL | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +9.8% | +152.2% |
| 11:15 | BUFO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 11:15 | MUNCHIES | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +296.8% | -17.2% |
| 11:15 | WELD | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +1.4% | +1.4% |
| 11:15 | FLOYD | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:15 | BUFO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +199.2% | +125.5% |
| 11:00 | SCOOP | gateD:vol5 $2203 < $5000 | d1 | -77.3% | -52.4% |
| 11:00 | QUNEK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -53.0% | +830.8% |
| 11:00 | LAMB | gateD:liq $4973 < $10000 | h1 | -4.6% | -3.2% |
| 11:00 | Townies | gateD:liq $5645 < $10000 | h1 | -5.6% | -5.5% |
| 11:00 | NUTS | gateD:liq $4560 < $10000 | h1 | +243.5% | +142.9% |
| 11:00 | TTT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -16.4% | -8.5% |
| 10:45 | BALLOON | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 | d1 | -93.3% | -74.2% |
| 10:45 | FLYSWATTER | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | -91.7% | -100.0% |
| 10:45 | EASE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +150.8% | +70.9% |
| 10:45 | PHARM | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | +175.8% | n/a |
| 10:45 | ASS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10:45 | FLYSWATTER | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| 10:45 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 10:30 | FGAY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +51.9% | -100.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)