Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 15:22 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
16.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 16s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 19,050 · failsafes 8 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 7,724 rpc · 2,275 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
12,965
launches seen
→
353
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
47
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 12,430 · gate D 295 · filter C 46 · vetoed 2 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $6.14 | $6.14 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.70 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $6.14 | > $0 | met |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 100% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1130 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:21 | Him 0x0557…17c7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $0 | $0 | +5m honeypot veto: 27 buys and 0 sells | |
| 15:18 | ZenoCoin 0xed86…3335 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 227 | $147,417 | $43,396 | 3.11 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:14 | OUTLAW 0x6a9e…f50b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $30,032 | $229 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $229 < $5000 |
| 15:12 | ZenoCoin 0x4e63…27ff | pons-v2 | 60 | $38,440 | $146,011 | 1.00 | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 |
| 15:08 | TNTR 0x6bcf…cb38 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $71,426 | $24,009 | 3.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:04 | NANNA 0x6d07…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $28,365 | $9,681 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 14:46 | MANATEE 0xc976…192f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $36,394 | $13,377 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:34 | Elon 0x4e6a…aac1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 176 | $232,361 | $131,330 | 4.37 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:34 | Elon 0x3180…19d6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 144 | $94,973 | $57,134 | 2.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:32 | Vlad 0x407b…515b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:31 | Cashcat 0x085a…1f26 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $13,589 | $7,138 | 3.18 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:30 | OZZY 0xf579…7860 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 231 | $45,173 | $9,786 | 2.18 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:26 | WINTERNUKE 0x8a6b…8dac | pons-v2 | 36 | $12,019 | $3,873 | 1.38 | gateD:vol5 $3873 < $5000 |
| 14:23 | WINTERNUKE 0xf0ad…0758 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 137 | $76,999 | $66,392 | 2.21 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:22 | Nemotron 0xbcd6…49c0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $39,421 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:20 | ECHORA 0x1af2…4ac3 | pons-v2 | 50 | $7,076 | $15,341 | 0.63 | gateD:liq $7076 < $10000 |
| 14:17 | XCOINS 0x1c23…2b36 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 69 | $68,908 | $13,604 | 2.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:17 | Nemotron 0xf41a…7557 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 141 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:14 | Nemotron 0x621d…7a43 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 162 | $4,821 | $12,544 | 1.10 | gateD:liq $4821 < $10000 |
| 14:02 | Beast 0xdb5d…30d4 | pons-v2 | 42 | $6,365 | $4,318 | 1.06 | gateD:liq $6365 < $10000 |
| 13:52 | VALE 0xcd01…af1b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 46 | $22,406 | $5,101 | 3.67 | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:45 | TENEV 0x19d7…8cf4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 135 | $74,401 | $38,189 | 1.59 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:45 | TENEV 0xcf98…3905 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 358 | $7,113 | $5,679 | 0.58 | gateD:liq $7113 < $10000 |
| 13:43 | PIKAZO 0x1e9a…a9ee | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $6,268 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:43 | TENEV 0x3926…0c7a | pons-v2 | 41 | $5,566 | $2,255 | 0.43 | gateD:liq $5566 < $10000 |
| 13:32 | UNCN 0x34eb…3b36 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 387 | $39,828 | $60,868 | 0.96 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 13:31 | UNCN 0x6116…5d37 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 167 | $124,012 | $30,977 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:31 | Unicoin 0x4014…0629 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $11,048 | $4,214 | 0.84 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 13:30 | UNCN 0xd6bc…18ff | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $6,667 | $178 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $6667 < $10000 |
| 13:28 | UNCN 0x7bf2…a9b3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 286 | $20,271 | $30,097 | 1.09 | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 |
| 13:27 | UNI 0xcd80…8000 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $6,254 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:23 | Unicoin 0x64d0…7a73 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 167 | $49,266 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:17 | pokepad 0x1b5e…b4ae | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:07 | Unicoin 0x590f…686a | pons-v2 | 65 | $20,802 | $67,282 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 13:06 | pokepad 0xba1f…4f99 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 165 | $53,927 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:05 | Unicoin 0x0308…b15c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $16,417 | $6,094 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:04 | pokepad 0xfb5e…f23a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $39,142 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:01 | API 0xe0b8…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $4,128 | $4,603 | 1.87 | gateD:liq $4128 < $10000 |
| 12:56 | DMT 0x87a1…1863 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $41,585 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:55 | DMT 0xfea7…ad33 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $92,445 | $39,029 | 2.10 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 174 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 41 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 41 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 37 |
| gateD:features | 31 |
| gateD:liq | 28 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 28 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 28 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 24 |
| gateD:vol5 | 10 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 4 |
| C:copycat | 4 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 4 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 2 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:ownerEoa | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1051 refusals checked at +1h so far. 90 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 839 | -9.8% | 35 |
| filterC | 210 | +63.3% | 55 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 2 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15 | HODLster | gateD:liq $5368 < $10000 | d1 | -47.4% | -27.6% |
| 15:15 | HAMSTER | gateD:liq $8437 < $10000 | d1 | -78.1% | -53.2% |
| 15:15 | Beast | gateD:liq $6365 < $10000 | h1 | -29.9% | -16.2% |
| 15:15 | Nemotron | gateD:liq $4821 < $10000 | h1 | -67.7% | -57.5% |
| 15:00 | HODLster | gateD:buy/sell 0.96 < 1.5 | d1 | -96.3% | -80.8% |
| 15:00 | TENEV | gateD:liq $7113 < $10000 | h1 | -36.1% | -30.3% |
| 15:00 | TENEV | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +39.0% | +23.7% |
| 15:00 | VALE | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +211.3% | +93.7% |
| 15:00 | NIGGER | gateD:liq $7014 < $10000 | d1 | -53.6% | -32.0% |
| 14:45 | USBDC | gateD:liq $5 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:45 | UNCN | gateD:liq $6667 < $10000 | h1 | -5.2% | -5.1% |
| 14:45 | Unicoin | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -40.0% | -35.2% |
| 14:45 | UNCN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +4.7% | +2.8% |
| 14:45 | UNCN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -71.7% | -54.0% |
| 14:45 | TENEV | gateD:liq $5566 < $10000 | h1 | -46.2% | -26.7% |
| 14:45 | PIKAZO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 14:30 | Unicoin | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:30 | UNI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 14:30 | UNCN | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 | h1 | -71.3% | -60.5% |
| 14:30 | BESSENT | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 | d1 | -88.7% | -66.5% |
| 14:30 | BESSENT | gateD:liq $4533 < $10000 | d1 | -42.1% | -23.9% |
| 14:30 | MOOB | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | d1 | -95.1% | -78.0% |
| 14:30 | USBDC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:30 | USBDC | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 | d1 | -89.1% | -67.1% |
| 14:30 | pokepad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 14:15 | pokepad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:15 | Unicoin | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +704.0% | +272.9% |
| 14:15 | pokepad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:15 | Unicoin | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | h1 | -80.3% | -55.6% |
| 14:15 | API | gateD:liq $4128 < $10000 | h1 | -38.2% | -30.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)