Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 17:16 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$261.37
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
7
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$37.34
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.7h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 18s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 9,208 · failsafes 5 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,092 rpc · 915 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

6,929
launches seen
170
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
31
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
7
opened

Refused: gate B 6,668 · gate D 132 · filter C 24 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 3 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2071-$261.37-$37.34
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (7)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
16:4916:57NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6Gold v212.1m8m1.03xconfirm_bail-$7.52-15.0%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17463 vol5 $9057 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · single ticket
16:0816:17Fork 0xa5fd…a71eGold v210.1m9m1.26xstop-$46.24-92.5%B:45 buyers · D:liq $17793 vol5 $9026 b/s 1.53 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:4313:13BNTR 0x12d1…68bbGold v211.3m90m1.36xmax_hold$0.70+1.4%B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:5111:54BUROS 0x1901…ace6Gold v210m3m1.00xstop-$55.00-55.0%B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m
11:2911:31GARDEN 0x5185…0d7aGold v213.9m2m1.00xstop-$65.65-65.7%B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m
10:5711:03Oilinu 0x54b7…d06cGold v213.5m6m1.00xstop-$26.94-53.9%B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket
10:5010:53CHIPR 0x6a80…9469Gold v210.2m3m1.00xstop-$60.72-60.7%B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set740not yet
Running days0.285not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$261.37> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%14%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 800 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
17:15QI 0xe714…e642uniswap-v4-launchpad179$146,715$54,4061.85filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:14BLUECHIP 0xfac5…ec27uniswap-v4-launchpad24$14,046$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
17:12MM 0xa4d0…e01duniswap-v4-launchpad131$68,091$29,0841.07gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5
17:12GUESSR 0xfc75…d5b5uniswap-v4-launchpad96$17,376$6,9851.24gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5
17:10MM 0x49f3…3ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad174$17,563$8780.92gateD:vol5 $878 < $5000
17:09QUBT 0x5981…34b4uniswap-v4-launchpad23$171,955$86,9690.89gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
17:09QI 0xfd20…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad389$54,144$49,4111.16gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5
17:03REVA 0xe61c…f48buniswap-v4-launchpad48$54,814$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
17:02REVA 0x7219…94a5uniswap-v4-launchpad264$17,132$10,4311.55filterC:sellSim
17:00AIR 0x8331…e201uniswap-v4-launchpad22$22,830$2,7851.29gateD:vol5 $2785 < $5000
16:59REVA 0x0cd9…3863uniswap-v4-launchpad176$28,760$35,4011.80filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:59ZDOG 0xb7cf…76b9uniswap-v4-launchpad54$58,824$27,3751.79filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:55$CRACKPIPE 0xbd47…243funiswap-v4-launchpad108$18,158$2,6671.11gateD:vol5 $2667 < $5000
16:53$CRACKPIPE 0xe4fc…c868uniswap-v4-launchpad141$103,082$35,0011.64filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:52REVA 0xc1c8…42d7uniswap-v4-launchpad108$26,646$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:51HACKTHELAPTOP 0xee67…5ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad172$19,519$1,2951.00gateD:vol5 $1295 < $5000
16:49DOGSHIT 0xe79e…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad27$24,992$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
16:49NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6uniswap-v4-launchpad36$17,463$9,0571.54ADMITTED
16:43ZDOG 0x7b63…1ae5uniswap-v4-launchpad59$22,616$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:41PE2E 0x862b…09d4uniswap-v4-launchpad40$50,401$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:38torinox 0x6dfd…f038uniswap-v4-launchpad35$43,211$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:37ZDOG 0x72ff…684duniswap-v4-launchpad157$101,020$35,1253.39filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:35torinox 0x7914…c0b2uniswap-v4-launchpad55$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:29BOND 0x5485…8fffpons-v235$7,656$6,4040.18gateD:liq $7656 < $10000
16:29VLAD 0x4aa6…84f9pons-v224$4,660$4160.60gateD:liq $4660 < $10000
16:28BOND 0xd658…d7bcuniswap-v4-launchpad157$112,743$74,9732.17filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:13SGOV 0x92fd…f9b5uniswap-v4-launchpad24$4,596,977$6,3860.24gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
16:08Fork 0xa5fd…a71epons-v245$17,793$9,0261.53ADMITTED
16:07HEFT 0xf549…a57cuniswap-v4-launchpad132$25,496$14,3721.50filterC:sellSim
16:06ROBOSHARE 0xabd8…84afpons-v273$6,667$10,6950.49gateD:liq $6667 < $10000
16:03JOMO 0x57a4…4d98pons-v222$5,395$4910.14gateD:liq $5395 < $10000
16:02TRADE 0x7d6c…33e8uniswap-v4-launchpad132$96,131$45,6192.07filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:58HUNG 0x4e1a…42b1pons-v228$7,390$6881.45gateD:liq $7390 < $10000
15:55AIP 0x9ff2…c6ffpons-v236$13,510$14,5962.01filterC:sellSim
15:45PRECRIME 0x1ffa…3341uniswap-v4-launchpad415$23,877$74,3291.24gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5
15:39LAPTOP 0x76ed…0b7funiswap-v4-launchpad144$83,198$38,0761.26gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
15:37boden 0x8730…fe0euniswap-v4-launchpad47$16,926$15,0261.29gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
15:36WWW 0xf011…cfcduniswap-v4-launchpad135$120,716$34,9111.53filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:36HODLster 0x4f01…4091pons-v229$3,778$4540.00gateD:liq $3778 < $10000
15:25HAMSTERUNITE 0xce9f…b42bpons-v220$23,332$316,6971.08gateD:buy/sell 1.08 < 1.5

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool61
gateD:features20
gateD:poolMismatch17
C:notV2VsWeth17
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager17
C:creatorShareUnknown17
gateD:liq15
gateD:buy/sell12
C:swapsH1<2508
gateD:vol57
C:sellSimStale4
C:sellSim3
C:tapeRatio>41

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

738 refusals checked at +1h so far. 57 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD600-7.3%27
filterC137+69.2%30
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
17:15CDRMgateD:liq $4435 < $10000d1-11.2%-10.7%
17:15USDEgateD:liq $6327 < $10000d1-45.5%-27.4%
17:15USDEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:15NVIDIAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:15Coca ColagateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:15KnightfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+28.7%+19.7%
17:15TRADEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-20.7%-13.8%
17:15JOMOgateD:liq $5395 < $10000h1-49.6%-29.0%
17:15ROBOSHAREgateD:liq $6667 < $10000h1-62.9%-39.1%
17:15HEFTfilterC:sellSimh1-43.9%-25.3%
17:15SGOVgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.0%+0.9%
17:00FLYWHEELgateD:liq $5825 < $10000d1-30.3%-17.2%
17:00RKNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:00AUTOAIgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-4.2%-4.2%
17:00PRECRIMEgateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5h1-90.8%-69.6%
17:00AIPfilterC:sellSimh1-79.1%-54.1%
17:00HUNGgateD:liq $7390 < $10000h1-43.7%-24.9%
17:00AMAZONCOINfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+64.7%+41.7%
17:00AXOMgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
16:45DEPLOYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
16:45SPXGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+36.0%+22.3%
16:45HODLstergateD:liq $3778 < $10000h1+33.7%+15.7%
16:45WWWfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+15.2%+9.0%
16:45bodengateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-45.5%-25.5%
16:45LAPTOPgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-57.6%-34.3%
16:45PLUMBERfilterC:sellSimd1-14.0%-13.2%
16:45DEPLOYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
16:45DEPLOYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
16:45MEMESgateD:liq $7321 < $10000d1-72.9%-47.9%
16:30HoundgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-9.4%-5.1%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)