Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 07 Sept, 23:38 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.1h
since 07 Sept, 23:31 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 4s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 5s ago ok
Socket events 246 · failsafes 1 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 25 rpc · 1 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

163
launches seen
4
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
0
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 0 · gate D 0 · filter C 0 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.005not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 56 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
22:31LUNA9 0x9663…f264uniswap-v4-launchpad61$45,201$27,6450.89gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:21PONSPOT 0x42cf…2b1dpons-v242$14,729$17,6651.58filterC:sellSimStale
22:17NVDA 0xd060…9eecuniswap-v4-launchpad26$6,906,077$66,2000.67gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:10Hound 0x7efa…2e19pons-v235$18,287$23,6001.15gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5
22:09CGPT 0x0042…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad68$25,975$1512.00gateD:vol5 $151 < $5000
22:09Hound 0x12c2…eaabuniswap-v4-launchpad95$102,686$22,4501.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
22:07POOL 0x92ba…a169uniswap-v4-launchpad118$33,729$2,4141.50gateD:vol5 $2414 < $5000
22:04AMZN 0x12f1…bf54uniswap-v4-launchpad25$1,148,630$1,3710.38gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:01VHARD 0x51ee…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad27$7,576$1,1881.83gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:00HOODIECOIN 0x55ae…f0eauniswap-v4-launchpad27$23,350$5,5000.40gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:58SWAGBUCKS 0x2c8b…7933pons-v253$9,332$14,7131.21gateD:liq $9332 < $10000
21:58POOL 0x9210…36f9uniswap-v4-launchpad99$5,886$9100.48gateD:liq $5886 < $10000
21:57SPY 0x117c…4c0cuniswap-v4-launchpad27$1,744,252$68,9841.08gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:56boden 0x04b4…7cb8uniswap-v4-launchpad59$121,773$20,1701.90gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:55ELYTRA 0x58a9…787buniswap-v4-launchpad101$40,758$22,0664.64filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:54AIX 0x32a3…784duniswap-v4-launchpad476$51,279$219,9651.24gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5
21:54TESLA 0x5aa6…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad21$20,573$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:53THESIS 0x5195…5356uniswap-v4-launchpad124$40,396$56,1430.98gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5
21:53RSTR 0x78b9…025duniswap-v4-launchpad20$109,450$55,5380.57gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:52O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201uniswap-v4-launchpad77$27,084$39,7251.45gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:52Lightoor 0x067d…6ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad61$168,775$73,6940.70gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:32O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201uniswap-v4-launchpad183$22,179$27,6171.75filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:31AMD 0x8692…3fdcuniswap-v4-launchpad22$680,637$6,5041.51filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
21:30rCat 0x5757…2195pons-v290$9$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:29STRATEGY 0x1442…5d01uniswap-v4-launchpad191$5,491$7820.07gateD:liq $5491 < $10000
21:28AMD 0xd95a…41e0uniswap-v4-launchpad92$85,974$42,3571.93filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:26AMD 0xf01a…beebpons-v253$27,101$51,4601.54filterC:sellSimStale
21:26VEYRA 0xc99e…3b1duniswap-v4-launchpad26$5,724$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:20YARD 0x234c…0615uniswap-v4-launchpad20$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:11SNOWCOIN 0x8e0e…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad31$17,553$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:06DOGEHOUSE 0xc70f…e668uniswap-v4-launchpad232$57,867$37,9570.85gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5
20:57CRACK 0x89ec…5801uniswap-v4-launchpad20$7,099$4550.25gateD:liq $7099 < $10000
20:54PIGGYBANK 0x20d0…18e9pons-v236$5,965$1,9650.80gateD:liq $5965 < $10000
20:54DJT 0x1d11…4516uniswap-v4-launchpad36$844,733$3,1141.28gateD:vol5 $3114 < $5000
20:53USDG 0x5fc5…d168uniswap-v4-launchpad88$1,250,769$99,5440.57gateD:buy/sell 0.57 < 1.5
20:52NVDA 0xd060…9eecuniswap-v4-launchpad33$6,932,571$99,1360.78gateD:buy/sell 0.78 < 1.5
20:50BIDEN 0x0ba3…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad618$141,691$68,7200.86gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5
20:47LUPO 0x8b38…3a9bpons-v220$5,066$5710.23gateD:liq $5066 < $10000
20:46Gun 0xf864…650euniswap-v4-launchpad95$40,345$32,5871.69filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:45AUtistic 0xb9e6…b360pons-v228$3$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
none

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

49 refusals checked at +1h so far. 4 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD42-20.4%1
filterC7+70.8%3
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
23:30NVDAgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1n/an/a
23:30PONSPOTfilterC:sellSimStaleh1n/an/a
23:15HOODIECOINgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-55.5%-33.3%
23:15VHARDgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-52.1%-35.3%
23:15AMZNgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.0%+0.0%
23:15POOLgateD:vol5 $2414 < $5000h1-94.8%-86.4%
23:15HoundfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-11.4%-7.2%
23:15CGPTgateD:vol5 $151 < $5000h1-21.8%-20.5%
23:15HoundgateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5h1+53.7%+24.0%
23:00O1BOTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-35.6%-22.7%
23:00LightoorgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-57.8%-40.7%
23:00RSTRgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+23.2%+11.1%
23:00THESISgateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5h1-35.0%-19.3%
23:00AIXgateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5h1-16.8%-8.7%
23:00TESLAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
23:00ELYTRAfilterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+279.7%+106.6%
23:00bodengateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-25.6%-16.5%
23:00SPYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+0.1%+1.4%
23:00SWAGBUCKSgateD:liq $9332 < $10000h1-39.4%-22.2%
23:00POOLgateD:liq $5886 < $10000h1-22.6%-20.2%
22:45rCatgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1n/an/a
22:45AMDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownh1n/an/a
22:45O1BOTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1n/an/a
22:30YARDgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
22:30VEYRAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+0.3%+0.3%
22:30AMDfilterC:sellSimStaleh1+2.3%+0.8%
22:30AMDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+83.0%+45.4%
22:30STRATEGYgateD:liq $5491 < $10000h1-9.6%-8.7%
22:15DOGEHOUSEgateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5h1-55.5%-39.3%
22:15SNOWCOINgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)