Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 19:26 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
18.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 24s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 25s ago ok
Socket events 26,223 · failsafes 9 · errors 9
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 8,503 rpc · 2,328 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
16,599
launches seen
→
792
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
71
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 15,518 · gate D 715 · filter C 71 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.78 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1668 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:25 | INDICIS 0xb5b1…3dd6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 186 | $90,318 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:22 | BBC 0xda07…303e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 70 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:21 | 🔮 0xcb52…6711 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $9,228 | $175 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $9228 < $10000 |
| 19:19 | SNOP 0xf8bd…7370 | pons-v2 | 75 | $2 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:19 | 🗳️ 0xb5e6…1766 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $8,336 | $49 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $8336 < $10000 |
| 19:17 | 🎮🕹️👾 0x09c6…ee8d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $4,548 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:17 | 🪟 0xa76d…0ece | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $5,779 | $103 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5779 < $10000 |
| 19:17 | 🪙 0x3684…e769 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $7,139 | $183 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $7139 < $10000 |
| 19:17 | 🐮 0x0d57…feb1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $8,217 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:16 | wing 0x582d…abd4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $43,009 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:16 | 🤖 0xa24a…b9c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $5,240 | $124 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5240 < $10000 |
| 19:15 | RATE 0x51d2…1b83 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:15 | 🍆🪟 0xd7f8…1002 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $6,703 | $2 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $6703 < $10000 |
| 19:15 | wing 0xc2e9…c99a | pons-v2 | 76 | $2 | $0 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $2 < $10000 |
| 19:13 | 🦆🦆🦆 0x4fec…7912 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $23,625 | $1,353 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $1353 < $5000 |
| 19:12 | KEVIN 0xf9c3…4c0f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $45,400 | $13,691 | 2.47 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:10 | 🍎 0xcafd…9ee5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 331 | $163,082 | $85,338 | 0.93 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:08 | LIQLORACLE 0xd163…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $48,584 | $1,920 | 0.83 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:07 | JENKINS 0xc884…4642 | pons-v2 | 69 | $7,387 | $4,875 | 0.51 | gateD:liq $7387 < $10000 |
| 19:07 | ND4 0xa43a…3d45 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $97,978 | $6,946 | 1.36 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:06 | INVEST 0x4b77…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 277 | $46,406 | $13,546 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSim |
| 18:53 | FARTSTOCK 0xa096…b796 | pons-v2 | 35 | $4,894 | $183 | 2.00 | gateD:liq $4894 < $10000 |
| 18:53 | yMINE 0x615a…d9fb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 160 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:51 | PLUMBER 0x8c69…b099 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 546 | $20,741 | $6,825 | 1.15 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 18:49 | OMMATID 0xb9bb…376e | pons-v2 | 20 | $14,625 | $44,377 | 0.74 | gateD:buy/sell 0.74 < 1.5 |
| 18:41 | LISTED 0x398a…897c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $75,464 | $14,992 | 0.71 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 18:38 | SX 0xba24…c0f7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $51,792 | $18,719 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:36 | DUCKFLY 0x59fc…96b3 | pons-v2 | 36 | $3 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:36 | DUCKFLY 0x16d2…cf58 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $37,089 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:35 | WADDLE 0x269a…f6b4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $74,259 | $17,761 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:33 | SX 0x658e…e9cf | pons-v2 | 48 | $9,410 | $2,554 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $9410 < $10000 |
| 18:32 | LONGX 0x7d7c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 142 | $21,638 | $205 | 0.50 | gateD:vol5 $205 < $5000 |
| 18:32 | DRIPPYPIGEON 0x52a9…201a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:30 | ELONG 0x46a5…52b1 | pons-v2 | 23 | $11,590 | $2,435 | 0.74 | gateD:vol5 $2435 < $5000 |
| 18:27 | LEÃO 0x1b90…bc08 | pons-v2 | 62 | $56,135 | $56,389 | 1.40 | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 |
| 18:21 | MSBD 0x757a…20f9 | pons-v2 | 48 | $14,213 | $4,189 | 1.71 | gateD:vol5 $4189 < $5000 |
| 18:21 | MSBD 0x7180…db94 | pons-v2 | 35 | $4,254 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:17 | POOP 0x5ab3…b904 | pons-v2 | 45 | $20,071 | $37,833 | 1.55 | filterC:sellSim |
| 18:17 | POOP 0x40b2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $20,201 | $5 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $5 < $5000 |
| 18:17 | DOTS 0xe1e5…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $20,723 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 392 |
| gateD:features | 98 |
| gateD:liq | 82 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 56 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 55 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 55 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 53 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 52 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 42 |
| gateD:vol5 | 28 |
| C:sellSim | 16 |
| missed the window | 7 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:copycat | 3 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 2 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1561 refusals checked at +1h so far. 144 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1241 | -8.4% | 64 |
| filterC | 317 | +51.8% | 80 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:15 | CAT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,ownerEoa,selectors:mint,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -95.3% | -87.8% |
| 19:15 | BUSTED | gateD:buy/sell 0.95 < 1.5 | d1 | -69.0% | -42.4% |
| 19:15 | KIRKINATORX | gateD:buy/sell 0.81 < 1.5 | d1 | -40.7% | -27.6% |
| 19:15 | STOCKNITE | gateD:buy/sell 1.14 < 1.5 | d1 | -93.8% | -74.2% |
| 19:15 | EVERYTHING | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +60.0% | +34.0% |
| 19:15 | EVERYTHING | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -95.1% | -77.5% |
| 19:15 | CHOGE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:15 | TOYOTA | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | EXAMCN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:15 | DOOMFLY | gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5 | h1 | +413.0% | +153.6% |
| 19:15 | MICROFLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +31.6% | +21.0% |
| 19:15 | MICROFLY | gateD:buy/sell 1.27 < 1.5 | h1 | +64.9% | +28.4% |
| 19:15 | MICROFLY | gateD:buy/sell 1.18 < 1.5 | h1 | -25.4% | -22.9% |
| 19:15 | BUB | gateD:liq $5461 < $10000 | h1 | -47.1% | -27.3% |
| 19:15 | MICROFLY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -45.3% | -26.0% |
| 19:15 | POOLED | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 | d1 | -44.1% | -23.4% |
| 19:00 | Burst | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:00 | PEG | gateD:liq $7446 < $10000 | d1 | +1.3% | +1.9% |
| 19:00 | Lasso | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +59.4% | +34.3% |
| 19:00 | PEG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -30.1% | -16.3% |
| 19:00 | PEG | gateD:liq $6506 < $10000 | d1 | -3.0% | -2.9% |
| 19:00 | MARIO | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 | d1 | -87.6% | -65.4% |
| 19:00 | FARMINGCROPNFT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -9.1% | -6.2% |
| 19:00 | THWAY | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -84.4% | -61.1% |
| 19:00 | NVDA | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 | d1 | -96.9% | -82.0% |
| 19:00 | DOK | gateD:liq $9058 < $10000 | d1 | -34.4% | -31.8% |
| 19:00 | UKSTR | gateD:liq $6261 < $10000 | h1 | -32.2% | -17.3% |
| 19:00 | UKSTR | gateD:vol5 $5 < $5000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:00 | SISYPHUS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -18.8% | -15.4% |
| 19:00 | SECURITITTIES | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -5.9% | -4.4% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)