Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 23:22 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
22.7h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 68s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 71s ago ok
Socket events 34,600 · failsafes 10 · errors 9
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 9,730 rpc · 2,569 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
21,528
launches seen
→
979
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
97
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 20,385 · gate D 878 · filter C 97 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.95 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1769 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:18 | GRAMS 0x29a2…2475 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $52,837 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:17 | WEI 0x7d74…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $22,728 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:11 | SNORT 0x518f…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $34,341 | $614 | 1.50 | gateD:vol5 $614 < $5000 |
| 23:09 | MEMEFI 0x3ab5…2c46 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $6,421 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:06 | Paz 0x9adc…6c73 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $48,552 | $6,670 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:02 | PURPLE 0xd632…481d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $3,465 | $30 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $3465 < $10000 |
| 23:01 | Doggo 0x6c7a…8b9d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $35,702 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:59 | Clarity 0xca28…0848 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $59,204 | $16,866 | 1.89 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:59 | PUPPER 0x4325…95c2 | pons-v2 | 20 | $8,505 | $13,166 | 0.98 | gateD:liq $8505 < $10000 |
| 22:57 | BROWNCEY 0xf310…8445 | pons-v2 | 35 | $12,040 | $19,577 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 22:49 | Doggo 0x5cad…926d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 193 | $13,915 | $106,705 | 1.02 | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 |
| 22:47 | Paz 0x541d…060b | pons-v2 | 52 | $7,140 | $6,770 | 0.60 | gateD:liq $7140 < $10000 |
| 22:47 | JIM 0x6438…2a31 | pons-v2 | 35 | $8,666 | $6,932 | 0.14 | gateD:liq $8666 < $10000 |
| 22:43 | DOGGO 0xb584…4f36 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $58,922 | $24,700 | 2.06 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:42 | STRAT 0x0983…221b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 101 | $37,945 | $3,067 | 0.50 | gateD:vol5 $3067 < $5000 |
| 22:40 | COCAINU 0x6ab6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $30,035 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 22:36 | CHIPICAT 0x7031…0077 | pons-v2 | 22 | $4,959 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:32 | DEEP 0x42ac…c616 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 125 | $94,488 | $49,587 | 2.06 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:31 | MOTH 0x7db6…d90c | pons-v2 | 49 | $4,996 | $1,856 | 1.10 | gateD:liq $4996 < $10000 |
| 22:31 | 🟩 0xd7ef…d8d2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $88,385 | $25,494 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:31 | FLORES 0x0519…dba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 150 | $17,928 | $86 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $86 < $5000 |
| 22:29 | STOKENS 0xfa00…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $32,247 | $200 | 0.63 | gateD:vol5 $200 < $5000 |
| 22:27 | 🎮 0x4b6f…dca8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 188 | $10,176 | $46 | gateD:vol5 $46 < $5000 | |
| 22:26 | KYC 0xec8f…6491 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $46,220 | $23,141 | 1.84 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:26 | ERO 0x82af…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $19,520 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:24 | HENT 0x223f…f266 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $37,179 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:23 | 🪶🪶🪶 0x0cb7…5280 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $25,183 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:21 | 🐮 0x2fc9…f1f8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $6,336 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:19 | KEK 0x560b…86de | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $65,509 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:19 | Investor 0xa129…2ed8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $13,618 | $327 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 22:15 | MEATBAG 0x9b05…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $27,378 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 22:15 | D 0xca70…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $19,750 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:13 | 🪟 0x64b4…3a99 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 610 | $69,946 | $65,001 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:13 | AIAIAIAIAIAI 0x966b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 105 | $20,354 | $12 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $12 < $5000 |
| 22:08 | OOPPAI 0xefb2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $20,035 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:08 | S&M500 0x9052…d6ec | pons-v2 | 52 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:03 | MIL 0xcd6b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $37,043 | $10,799 | 1.55 | filterC:sellSim |
| 22:03 | AI 0x3e20…aef6 | pons-v2 | 73 | $4,916 | $25,143 | 0.86 | gateD:liq $4916 < $10000 |
| 22:03 | OPP 0x9f71…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 77 | $19,999 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:03 | ABE 0xbca2…be96 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $45,572 | $3,387 | 0.47 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 478 |
| gateD:features | 126 |
| gateD:liq | 96 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 79 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 79 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 76 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 67 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 63 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 62 |
| gateD:vol5 | 39 |
| C:sellSim | 18 |
| missed the window | 9 |
| C:copycat | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 3 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 3 |
| C:ownerEoa | 2 |
| C:selectors:pause | 1 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:selectors:pause+setMaxTx | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1670 refusals checked at +1h so far. 157 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1324 | -8.2% | 68 |
| filterC | 343 | +53.5% | 89 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:15 | MIL | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -15.5% | -12.4% |
| 23:15 | AI | gateD:liq $4916 < $10000 | h1 | -20.2% | -10.7% |
| 23:15 | OPP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -6.3% | -6.3% |
| 23:15 | ABE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -34.8% | -21.8% |
| 23:15 | S&M500 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:15 | OOPPAI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:15 | AIAIAIAIAIAI | gateD:vol5 $12 < $5000 | h1 | -7.1% | -7.2% |
| 23:15 | 🪟 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -41.4% | -37.8% |
| 23:15 | RGS | gateD:vol5 $2971 < $5000 | d1 | -83.0% | -58.8% |
| 23:00 | MOONCOIN | gateD:buy/sell 0.69 < 1.5 | h1 | -49.3% | -37.5% |
| 23:00 | DANGEROUS | gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5 | h1 | -65.7% | -53.5% |
| 23:00 | HENT | gateD:buy/sell 0.52 < 1.5 | h1 | -41.1% | -27.7% |
| 23:00 | ESCOBAR | gateD:buy/sell 0.87 < 1.5 | h1 | -62.0% | -50.1% |
| 23:00 | KAW | gateD:vol5 $11 < $5000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22:45 | ROCKETFROG | gateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000 | d1 | -25.1% | -23.6% |
| 22:45 | MEME | gateD:buy/sell 1.22 < 1.5 | h1 | -88.4% | -66.0% |
| 22:45 | VTNK | gateD:liq $5847 < $10000 | h1 | +9.7% | +9.6% |
| 22:45 | WIPEY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22:45 | FHENIX | gateD:vol5 $48 < $5000 | h1 | -5.3% | -5.1% |
| 22:45 | MEME | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +37.7% | +23.6% |
| 22:30 | HOPPY | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:30 | BANYANA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +63.6% | -100.0% |
| 22:30 | CSGO | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:30 | Kermit | gateD:liq $5 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:30 | ELF | gateD:vol5 $3452 < $5000 | d1 | +19.4% | +9.3% |
| 22:30 | Helium | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:30 | RocketFrog | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 | d1 | -97.3% | -83.7% |
| 22:30 | FLY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -94.8% | -77.0% |
| 22:30 | PHAT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -92.2% | +4.2% |
| 22:30 | RocketFrog | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -14.5% | -13.9% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)