Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 13:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
12.9h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 0s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 21s ago ok
Socket events 16,455 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 5,897 rpc · 1,658 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

10,405
launches seen
479
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
43
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 9,766 · gate D 431 · filter C 43 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.545not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1516 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
13:24Izzy 0x4afa…0590pons-v239$17$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:16Bagtone 0x0f62…1ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad20$9,186$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:05blue 0xa8c2…5f38uniswap-v4-launchpad93$76,387$30,5041.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
12:53PPILOT 0xf292…2b8buniswap-v4-launchpad50$70,631$34,1661.53filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:39LIQ 0x29a9…7a80uniswap-v4-launchpad110$22,518$29,7181.57filterC:sellSim
12:33QUORUM 0xc1db…bd8buniswap-v4-launchpad116$68,702$57,0271.71filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:58TIDE 0xcbb0…4e9buniswap-v4-launchpad77$47,790$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:46JETS 0xa011…9b9cuniswap-v4-launchpad117$81,607$10,9551.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:44Sprout 0x0d19…7f48uniswap-v4-launchpad40$27,788$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:43SPOONBOT 0x45e4…8311pons-v255$7$10gateD:liq $7 < $10000
11:36HASHTOWN 0xbe00…ce11uniswap-v4-launchpad124$77,792$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:13EMILE 0x80fe…c8fauniswap-v4-launchpad122$62,737$20,2721.52filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:05AGI 0xf793…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad378$3,366$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:03Bullions 0x108c…c265uniswap-v4-launchpad27$19,615$2,5611.56gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000
11:02AGI 0xa058…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad166$3,275$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:02ei 0x2634…5acauniswap-v4-launchpad98$73,256$8,7521.82filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:01FLLY 0x1f7f…1c01uniswap-v4-launchpad39$4,734$6020.00gateD:liq $4734 < $10000
10:59INU 0x8202…8ae6uniswap-v4-launchpad351$78,412$20,7151.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
10:49FRIES 0x54d3…32feuniswap-v4-launchpad51$0$00.85gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:45HIGHER 0xcf9b…5c7funiswap-v4-launchpad99$57$40.00gateD:liq $57 < $10000
10:43COPPERINU 0x2bbb…4e3funiswap-v4-launchpad52$8,609$2330.00gateD:liq $8609 < $10000
10:36WM 0x93ec…a773uniswap-v4-launchpad57$0$00.21gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:29WEED 0x24cb…c247uniswap-v4-launchpad61$0$00.00gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:26SCOUT 0x6aa5…2352uniswap-v4-launchpad73$20,354$5,2700.75gateD:buy/sell 0.75 < 1.5
10:24electricity 0xb3f7…dcf2uniswap-v4-launchpad146$58,760$8,9241.56filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
10:23FKH 0xbe1e…fc5duniswap-v4-launchpad82$12$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:22420 0x4b8e…7896uniswap-v4-launchpad34$0$07.58gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:15BULL 0xcbd8…0f4duniswap-v4-launchpad88$72$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:11BUFO 0xddd9…8e3duniswap-v4-launchpad65$34,183$13,9821.77filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
10:09FLOYD 0x3e1e…389buniswap-v4-launchpad86$0$00.29gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:08WELD 0xaf0a…3d01uniswap-v4-launchpad62$4,014$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:07MUNCHIES 0x6f43…3737uniswap-v4-launchpad22$112$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:05BUFO 0x9582…2167uniswap-v4-launchpad27$6,245$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:05GRILL 0x9df0…1e4buniswap-v4-launchpad230$56$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:03ei 0x1b16…6104pons-v277$12$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
09:58TTT 0xcee5…303buniswap-v4-launchpad50$8,359$1,4370.60gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
09:57NUTS 0x9243…a895uniswap-v4-launchpad25$4,560$229gateD:liq $4560 < $10000
09:56LAMB 0x621a…05d8uniswap-v4-launchpad21$4,973$2761.00gateD:liq $4973 < $10000
09:56Townies 0x42ed…919euniswap-v4-launchpad64$5,645$50.00gateD:liq $5645 < $10000
09:44LIQUITITTY 0x2358…6a81uniswap-v4-launchpad25$0$02.70gateD:liq $0 < $10000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool234
gateD:features56
gateD:liq47
gateD:poolMismatch44
C:notV2VsWeth31
C:creatorShareUnknown31
gateD:buy/sell30
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager29
C:swapsH1<25023
gateD:vol515
C:sellSim12
missed the window5
C:liquidityUnder$250004
C:tapeRatio>42
C:lpNotVerifiable:none2
C:copycat1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1443 refusals checked at +1h so far. 130 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD1149-8.5%58
filterC291+51.2%72
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
13:30pokepadgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:30UnicoingateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+2496.8%-100.0%
13:30UNIgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-0.3%-0.3%
13:30UNCNgateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5d1-75.9%-66.4%
13:15APIgateD:liq $4128 < $10000d1-65.3%-57.7%
13:15pokepadgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:15UnicoinfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-0.7%+6.2%
13:15pokepadgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:15UnicoingateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5d1-96.1%-80.3%
13:00DMTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+36.2%+21.2%
13:00DMTgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:00JETSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
13:00TIDEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
12:45RXTgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-15.4%n/a
12:45DARTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-81.4%-57.1%
12:45BCCgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-86.3%-100.0%
12:45HASHTOWNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
12:45SPOONBOTgateD:liq $7 < $10000h10.0%0.0%
12:45SproutgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
12:45CYBERBEERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
12:30CYBERBEERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
12:15FLLYgateD:liq $4734 < $10000h1-8.6%-7.8%
12:15eifilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
12:15AGIgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-0.1%-0.1%
12:15BullionsgateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000h1-48.0%-27.9%
12:15AGIgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+0.1%-0.2%
12:15EMILEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+6.8%+4.7%
12:00HIGHERgateD:liq $57 < $10000h10.0%0.0%
12:00FRIESgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1n/an/a
12:00INUfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+0.5%+0.3%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)