Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 17:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$58.41
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
$29.21
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
19.0h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 8s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 9s ago ok
Socket events 22,455 · failsafes 9 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 8,753 rpc · 2,586 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

15,036
launches seen
439
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
60
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
2
opened

Refused: gate B 14,314 · gate D 362 · filter C 58 · vetoed 2 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2022$58.41$29.21
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (2)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
16:2016:39ANY 0x2d51…b963Gold v213.9m19m5.44xtrail$52.27+104.5%B:33 buyers · D:liq $14822 vol5 $15894 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · single ticket
03:3203:36Tomo 0x8661…3472Gold v215.3m4m1.84xtrail$6.14+12.3%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set240not yet
Running days0.795not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$58.41> $0met
Win rate inside 50 to 73%100%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1169 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
17:27ROBIN 0x2c37…c5c8pons-v232$5,434$1200.00gateD:liq $5434 < $10000
17:26BCP 0xae78…0f14uniswap-v4-launchpad79$62,592$9,0781.86filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:26Stonkfly 0xc613…b148uniswap-v4-launchpad249$40,152$29,2151.00gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5
17:24WETH 0x0bd7…ad73uniswap-v4-launchpad89$28,499,736$2,617,8980.89gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
17:19Stonkfly 0x0008…a4e3uniswap-v4-launchpad68$54,761$19,2602.25filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:18Astra 0x50ca…0b96uniswap-v4-launchpad258$62,375$26,7631.03gateD:buy/sell 1.03 < 1.5
17:16SNAPCAT 0x9e4f…f51euniswap-v4-launchpad46$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
17:11STONKFLY 0x99cc…eba3uniswap-v4-launchpad43$18,404$261.00gateD:vol5 $26 < $5000
17:08THRU 0x8910…9732uniswap-v4-launchpad123$90,589$51,3101.97filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:08ENDSZ 0x88b2…5e81uniswap-v4-launchpad25$12,791$3,8080.73gateD:vol5 $3808 < $5000
17:05COOK 0x249d…2616uniswap-v4-launchpad25$3,079$2,9240.00gateD:liq $3079 < $10000
16:55ROVE 0xf4a6…06c1uniswap-v4-launchpad36$60,887$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:53hands 0xcc01…dc6euniswap-v4-launchpad119$81,494$34,8792.29filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:47SPACESHIP 0xba9b…2eddpons-v252$7,599$7,5200.79gateD:liq $7599 < $10000
16:38DOK 0xc87e…fc2bpons-v220$9$00.00gateD:liq $9 < $10000
16:38DOK 0xa197…cdbduniswap-v4-launchpad230$57,584$18,0622.17filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:37MARIO 0xdad3…1c8auniswap-v4-launchpad146$92,965$55,1191.69filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:36VERSE 0x4ec4…e0b2pons-v2105$5,310$6,9510.12gateD:liq $5310 < $10000
16:32Sweater 0xd389…4815uniswap-v4-launchpad62$27,024$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:28MARIO 0x7a49…420cpons-v277$15,258$16,8231.84filterC:sellSimStale
16:26ROVE 0x99af…b0cbuniswap-v4-launchpad54$38,555$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:20ANY 0x2d51…b963pons-v233$14,822$15,8941.63ADMITTED
16:14ALEXANDER 0xa13f…067dpons-v221$7,477$1,2591.11gateD:liq $7477 < $10000
16:09ZenoCoin 0x2e2f…533auniswap-v4-launchpad67$39,678$20,6011.94filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:08AUK 0x99fc…2ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad25$8,859$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:06ZFORGE 0x87a3…1661uniswap-v4-launchpad149$107,288$27,1782.33filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:05BAGOFDICKS 0x6266…a075pons-v223$6,916$4940.38gateD:liq $6916 < $10000
15:58G 0xd5cf…7bb3pons-v258$13,617$17,6761.30gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5
15:55NEMOTRON 0x2023…1b7buniswap-v4-launchpad64$47,083$28,3041.79filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:52CHR 0x4275…c86apons-v234$18,621$10,1921.06gateD:buy/sell 1.06 < 1.5
15:52FROGE 0x1df1…c719uniswap-v4-launchpad25$179,958$16,9040.20gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
15:45FRONG 0x6245…0c47uniswap-v4-launchpad663$1,033,129$1,873,3721.02gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
15:40ONGR 0xdcba…5ea9uniswap-v4-launchpad53$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:40Lasso 0x6874…3ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad43$30,157$7,2390.56gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5
15:35MEOWSHI 0xefed…e0d7uniswap-v4-launchpad308$72,347$9,2031.59filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:33SUSHISTOCK 0x5aa6…446duniswap-v4-launchpad179$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:31SEEKHOOD 0x34d8…5c0duniswap-v4-launchpad120$81,579$30,7361.75filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:31SUSHISTOCK 0xb18c…a596uniswap-v4-launchpad35$54,562$160,8421.38gateD:buy/sell 1.38 < 1.5
15:29KIRK 0xadda…f598uniswap-v4-launchpad108$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
15:21Him 0x0557…17c7uniswap-v4-launchpad32$0$0+5m honeypot veto: 27 buys and 0 sells

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool215
C:notV2VsWeth52
C:creatorShareUnknown52
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager48
gateD:features39
C:swapsH1<25036
gateD:liq35
gateD:poolMismatch31
gateD:buy/sell30
gateD:vol512
C:copycat5
C:sellSimStale5
C:lpNotVerifiable:none4
C:liquidityUnder$250004
C:tapeRatio>44
veto:+5m zero sells2
C:sellSim1
C:denyConstant1
C:ownerEoa1
C:selectors:setMaxTx1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1088 refusals checked at +1h so far. 96 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD860-9.8%36
filterC225+63.4%60
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
17:30QIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
17:30QIgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:30AIR6900gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-4.2%-4.1%
17:30AIR6900gateD:liq $8541 < $10000d1-63.9%-41.0%
17:30AIRgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-2.8%-2.8%
17:30AUTOMATONgateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5d1-84.8%-61.7%
17:30MultiHopperfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-92.1%-100.0%
17:30IFfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-17.0%-11.9%
17:30MultiHoppergateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5d1-80.4%-56.3%
17:30PAIRDgateD:liq $5293 < $10000d1-22.2%-13.2%
17:30HOODERfilterC:sellSimd1-83.0%-58.7%
17:30SHAREgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:30ROVEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
17:30MARIOfilterC:sellSimStaleh1+180.9%+67.6%
17:15AIRgateD:vol5 $2785 < $5000d1-85.1%-84.5%
17:15REVAfilterC:sellSimd1-91.0%-70.5%
17:15REVAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:15QUBTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-3.6%-29.8%
17:15QIgateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5d1+179.7%+93.7%
17:15MMgateD:vol5 $878 < $5000d1-31.4%-30.8%
17:15MMgateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5d1n/an/a
17:15GUESSRgateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5d1-91.3%-71.0%
17:15BLUECHIPgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
17:15BAGOFDICKSgateD:liq $6916 < $10000h1-35.8%-19.7%
17:15ZFORGEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-0.4%-0.1%
17:15AUKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+1.4%+1.5%
17:15ZenoCoinfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+419.4%+206.5%
17:15ALEXANDERgateD:liq $7477 < $10000h1-53.6%-30.3%
17:00NEMOTRONfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+32.2%+22.7%
17:00GgateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5h1-79.1%-54.3%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)