Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 05:20 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$157.22
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
7
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.46
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
5.3h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 9s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 13s ago ok
Socket events 12,402 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,409 rpc · 729 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

8,423
launches seen
235
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
19
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
7
opened

Refused: gate B 7,909 · gate D 210 · filter C 12 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2071-$157.22-$22.46
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (7)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
05:0305:11SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18Gold v212.7m8m1.01xconfirm_bail-$11.50-11.5%B:82 buyers · D:liq $22882 vol5 $6464 b/s 1.90 · C:allowlist · size-up:83 distinct buyers in 30m
04:4504:49DRILL 0x5455…b884Gold v210.2m4m1.00xstop-$34.94-69.9%B:52 buyers · D:liq $11658 vol5 $9900 b/s 1.99 · C:allowlist · single ticket
04:2904:39OS 0x1b9b…d4c4Gold v210.7m10m1.33xstop-$25.77-51.5%B:52 buyers · D:liq $14701 vol5 $7390 b/s 1.69 · C:allowlist · single ticket
04:0304:07FABCOIN 0x7bbc…d309Gold v215.1m4m1.00xstop-$26.82-53.6%B:27 buyers · D:liq $18816 vol5 $5562 b/s 2.12 · C:allowlist · single ticket
03:3603:54Mischief 0xe68d…1340Gold v210.7m18m1.87xtrail$6.53+13.1%B:50 buyers · D:liq $13119 vol5 $6638 b/s 1.55 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:5303:00MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147Gold v210.7m8m1.06xstop-$35.19-70.4%B:30 buyers · D:liq $17919 vol5 $5480 b/s 1.95 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:1202:20COMPUTER 0xc236…7293Gold v211.5m8m1.00xstop-$29.53-59.1%B:24 buyers · D:liq $22758 vol5 $99785 b/s 1.57 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set740not yet
Running days0.225not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$157.22> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%14%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 651 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
05:19NCLD 0x65a9…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad151$47,117$15,0560.72gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5
05:19TREE 0x40c4…98acpons-v248$30,017$143,1851.10gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5
05:17tip 0x2f1e…8545uniswap-v4-launchpad81$21,579$9,1971.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
05:11SHOPPY 0x83c2…2201uniswap-v4-launchpad66$7,019$1,0552.20gateD:liq $7019 < $10000
05:09THC 0x19c2…991duniswap-v4-launchpad179$117,100$35,3221.55filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
05:05Swagcat 0x7d24…9ab1pons-v225$5,130$720.00gateD:liq $5130 < $10000
05:04SHOPCAT 0x2dfa…3628uniswap-v4-launchpad45$48,215$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:04Glasses 0x3fa8…d0abpons-v220$5,679$1853.00gateD:liq $5679 < $10000
05:03SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad82$22,882$6,4641.90ADMITTED
05:02CRIB 0x5776…5b51uniswap-v4-launchpad41$7,247$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:57SHOPCAT 0x268d…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad565$115,854$106,8690.94gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5
04:45PLXMS 0x76b8…d566uniswap-v4-launchpad44$7,556$5180.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:45DRILL 0x5455…b884pons-v252$11,658$9,9001.99ADMITTED
04:43ZKSWAP 0x91f9…bdb0uniswap-v4-launchpad20$27,813$4,8891.17gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:43SHROOM 0xab09…5b29uniswap-v4-launchpad26$363,161$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:30FORGE 0xa938…5f15pons-v221$17,796$8,5262.12filterC:sellSimStale
04:29OS 0x1b9b…d4c4uniswap-v4-launchpad52$14,701$7,3901.69ADMITTED
04:27RARE 0x4d12…93bcuniswap-v4-launchpad25$2,128$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:21STOCKLESS 0xad4a…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad102$57,830$1,7030.52gateD:vol5 $1703 < $5000
04:21STOCKLESS 0x2414…2c4apons-v243$35,389$77,6191.17gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5
04:19JACOB 0x84ba…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad109$28,918$3,4860.28gateD:vol5 $3486 < $5000
04:17GCT 0x86fd…1af2pons-v250$16,947$7,6770.79gateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5
04:13ponzi 0xd712…9b15uniswap-v4-launchpad41$20,678$489gateD:vol5 $489 < $5000
04:13MEME 0x385f…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad21$101,540$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:12Jacob 0x3df3…06f1pons-v238$15,317$35,0540.97gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5
04:03FABCOIN 0x7bbc…d309pons-v227$18,816$5,5622.12ADMITTED
04:02CRO 0xe4e2…5f29pons-v273$6,296$7750.90gateD:liq $6296 < $10000
04:00BCAT 0x1c16…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad106$19$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
03:36Mischief 0xe68d…1340uniswap-v4-launchpad50$13,119$6,6381.55ADMITTED
03:35STAIR 0x7b9e…06bcuniswap-v4-launchpad22$25,360$6,1108.67filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
03:25PIZZA 0x956e…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad24$28,693$2,2641.05gateD:vol5 $2264 < $5000
03:25RECEIPT 0xb97d…34eeuniswap-v4-launchpad98$52,398$14,1501.96gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
03:09MAGA 0x25d3…e299pons-v254$6,144$4210.25gateD:liq $6144 < $10000
03:02OCTN 0xc7c1…43dcuniswap-v4-launchpad258$17,016$62,3691.39gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5
02:55sat 0x796f…1d01uniswap-v4-launchpad26$4,363$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:53MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147pons-v230$17,919$5,4801.95ADMITTED
02:51REAL 0x153c…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad21$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:51SHARO 0x6d6c…151fpons-v249$12,047$9,3121.28gateD:buy/sell 1.28 < 1.5
02:48unipcs 0xdb7e…dee8uniswap-v4-launchpad70$54,276$10,3822.33filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
02:30OYIRA 0xf4bd…aacepons-v226$4,732$90.00gateD:liq $4732 < $10000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool122
gateD:liq25
gateD:features19
gateD:buy/sell17
gateD:poolMismatch15
gateD:vol512
C:notV2VsWeth9
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager9
C:creatorShareUnknown9
C:swapsH1<2504
C:liquidityUnder$250002
C:sellSim2
C:denyConstant1
C:tapeRatio>41
C:ownerEoa1
C:selectors:setMaxTx1
C:sellSimStale1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

604 refusals checked at +1h so far. 48 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD495-9.2%22
filterC108+81.7%26
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
05:15KERVONgateD:liq $3992 < $10000d1-12.0%-6.2%
05:15WONKAfilterC:sellSimStaled1-71.8%-48.1%
05:15HOUSEgateD:liq $5656 < $10000d1-51.3%-30.2%
05:15KEYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-3.1%-100.0%
05:15ECHELONgateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000d1+105.8%+43.4%
05:15SHEEPgateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5d1-90.8%-70.0%
05:15FREAKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
05:15BCATgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
05:15CROgateD:liq $6296 < $10000h1-29.4%-16.0%
05:15JacobgateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5h1+969.3%+227.1%
05:15ponzigateD:vol5 $489 < $5000h1-13.4%-9.5%
05:15MEMEgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+4.6%+2.1%
05:00BITCORNgateD:liq $5601 < $10000d1-89.1%-91.4%
05:00MILKERSgateD:liq $5215 < $10000d1+36.5%-68.9%
05:00SXYgateD:liq $6564 < $10000d1-63.7%-40.0%
05:00FREAKfilterC:sellSimStaled1-95.2%-77.6%
05:00🅿️gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-56.0%-33.6%
04:45HOODCATgateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5d1-96.8%-82.0%
04:45STAIRfilterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+439.5%+158.4%
04:45KirafilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-81.5%-100.0%
04:45CMEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
04:45KiragateD:liq $9498 < $10000d1-80.8%-56.7%
04:45AAPLgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-1.0%+27.4%
04:45PUMPgateD:liq $729 < $10000d1-20.4%+70.0%
04:30PrometheusgateD:buy/sell 1.46 < 1.5d1-94.0%-75.6%
04:30PrometheusgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-29.8%-16.2%
04:30MOOgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-21.1%-13.7%
04:30PrometheusgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd10.0%-0.0%
04:30PrometheusgateD:liq $6052 < $10000d1-59.0%-36.0%
04:30FUDZgateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5d1-12.7%-11.7%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)