Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 07:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 12s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 13s ago ok
Socket events 10,074 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,952 rpc · 826 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

6,078
launches seen
299
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
25
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 5,550 · gate D 266 · filter C 25 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.285not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1432 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
07:27flywheel 0x8541…1f99uniswap-v4-launchpad96$83,445$21,2431.55filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:26flywheel 0xaec7…8d7apons-v273$9,428$14,0940.87gateD:liq $9428 < $10000
07:25LUMO 0x44ca…c7ccuniswap-v4-launchpad287$17,987$23,1940.97gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5
07:20MMCW 0x0c6d…8e8bpons-v254$40$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:18Flygma 0x3b40…8144uniswap-v4-launchpad109$53,448$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:14Flygma 0x8f5f…ff9funiswap-v4-launchpad123$36,355$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:13WORMBRAIN 0x2703…05d1pons-v253$27,813$130,4211.52filterC:sellSim
07:09ELJEFE 0x19a5…217auniswap-v4-launchpad65$0$01.42gateD:liq $0 < $10000
07:05zebrafishbrain 0xd7a9…b2b3uniswap-v4-launchpad43$52,009$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:04ZEBRAFISHBRAIN 0x84e6…0373uniswap-v4-launchpad146$82,124$42,8912.32filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:02zebrafishbrain 0xa5b5…a67fpons-v260$11,888$28,4171.30gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5
07:02sugar 0x8578…601bpons-v257$9,899$30,4741.27gateD:liq $9899 < $10000
06:56Flygma 0xd9f0…9b79pons-v242$14,553$13,0790.90gateD:buy/sell 0.90 < 1.5
06:54YOINK 0x3771…40beuniswap-v4-launchpad236$48,174$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:52FLYBORG 0xeba6…c851uniswap-v4-launchpad43$36,997$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:51YOINK 0x9a04…2bd4uniswap-v4-launchpad89$6,882$15gateD:liq $6882 < $10000
06:50BONER 0x9809…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad21$484,695$6,6830.71gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:48GAS 0x72a6…e4a8uniswap-v4-launchpad47$0$01.97gateD:liq $0 < $10000
06:45SEXFLY 0xa718…4233uniswap-v4-launchpad31$46,292$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:39FLYBORG 0x5c5d…f55cpons-v247$24,044$24,9661.52filterC:sellSim
06:37KIBSHI 0x5f63…6ce4uniswap-v4-launchpad43$7,659$2,0921.00gateD:liq $7659 < $10000
06:33DOGGYCOIN 0xe87f…2601uniswap-v4-launchpad20$5,836$2841.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:33ALCH 0x1525…e20cuniswap-v4-launchpad98$82,041$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:33SEXFLY 0xa0f4…9d90pons-v258$28,186$188,1771.04gateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5
06:33Samu 0x08b6…8073pons-v248$18,875$48,5651.59filterC:sellSim
06:27PEPECORP 0x093e…9c1funiswap-v4-launchpad22$36,307$17,2880.96gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:26SLV 0x411e…d89funiswap-v4-launchpad20$406,006$1,2870.76gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:24WORM 0xb12c…5b4euniswap-v4-launchpad115$71,528$45,8531.58filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:23DOGGY 0x0b3c…e3eeuniswap-v4-launchpad78$62,037$38,2930.88gateD:buy/sell 0.88 < 1.5
06:20Cock 0xb88f…57a6uniswap-v4-launchpad101$5,458$460.00gateD:liq $5458 < $10000
06:20JOHN 0x9751…5d7duniswap-v4-launchpad30$4,472$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:20TwoBirds 0xd2ef…62dduniswap-v4-launchpad24$4,426$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:20STERLING 0x5dfb…eef0pons-v278$18,996$46,9191.22gateD:buy/sell 1.22 < 1.5
06:19DOGGY 0x37a0…ad80pons-v248$11,151$39,0301.50filterC:sellSim
06:13pigeon 0x9e1c…7a06uniswap-v4-launchpad47$4,876$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:13FLOCK 0x6b7e…9dceuniswap-v4-launchpad31$4,547$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:13QQQ 0xba79…d7e4uniswap-v4-launchpad53$2,950$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:12Pigeo 0xc074…2ea8uniswap-v4-launchpad34$4,212$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:11JOHN 0xddf1…15dfuniswap-v4-launchpad103$5,249$1,0510.80gateD:liq $5249 < $10000
06:11ARCAT 0xa795…1851uniswap-v4-launchpad38$4,514$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool135
gateD:poolMismatch40
gateD:features30
gateD:liq25
gateD:buy/sell22
C:notV2VsWeth15
C:creatorShareUnknown15
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager14
C:swapsH1<25011
C:sellSim10
gateD:vol59
missed the window5
C:liquidityUnder$250002
C:tapeRatio>42
C:copycat1
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1331 refusals checked at +1h so far. 121 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD1059-9.7%52
filterC269+55.1%69
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
07:15flysimgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+239.9%+151.6%
07:15eggfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-75.8%-62.4%
07:15roostgateD:liq $7900 < $10000h1-56.4%-48.2%
07:15ALCHgateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5h1+42.1%+28.3%
07:15DATAfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+19.3%+11.2%
07:15HootgateD:liq $6655 < $10000h1-53.1%-47.2%
07:15birdygateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-27.1%-100.0%
07:15ARCATgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-27.0%-25.2%
07:15ROOSTERgateD:liq $6047 < $10000h1-33.1%-28.2%
07:15JOHNgateD:liq $5249 < $10000h1-30.3%-26.9%
07:15PigeogateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-9.0%-8.3%
07:15QQQgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-13.7%-100.0%
07:15pigeongateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-25.9%-23.3%
07:15FLOCKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-21.8%-20.0%
07:00SPIRITSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
07:00SPIRITSgateD:liq $6599 < $10000d1-65.2%-41.0%
07:00LOCKHEEDINUgateD:vol5 $94 < $5000d1-24.5%-20.2%
07:00BTCgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-38.4%-22.3%
07:00DIVIDENDgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-35.2%-29.9%
07:00EWY6900gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
07:00MINEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+43.1%+24.6%
07:00EWY6900gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
07:00unicoingateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-2.2%-2.2%
06:45FLYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
06:45PDFgateD:liq $8898 < $10000d1-67.4%-60.1%
06:45FLYgateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5d1+23.6%+11.5%
06:45FlygateD:liq $9543 < $10000d1-68.7%-43.8%
06:45FLYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+39.0%+22.3%
06:45fIycoingateD:vol5 $526 < $5000d1-54.3%-48.8%
06:45ELEV8gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)