Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 12 Sept, 02:02 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
1.4h
since 12 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 1s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 2s ago ok
Socket events 2,190 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 524 rpc · 158 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
1,237
launches seen
→
56
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
3
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 956 · gate D 45 · filter C 3 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.06 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1823 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | POLYFLY 0x74ac…dba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 430 | $37,612 | $8,380 | 0.65 | gateD:buy/sell 0.65 < 1.5 |
| 01:59 | PAYVORA 0x07f5…c27f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $65,287 | $35,470 | 1.53 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:58 | FASTCAT 0xe081…0b79 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $33,121 | $729 | 0.75 | gateD:vol5 $729 < $5000 |
| 01:57 | STONKBROKER 0xe934…bf50 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $2,877,909 | $7,616 | 1.21 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:56 | 🍙 0xc264…7cbf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $29,759 | $109 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:56 | POLYFLY 0x885e…624b | pons-v2 | 57 | $4,680 | $2,032 | 0.39 | gateD:liq $4680 < $10000 |
| 01:55 | DOGGO 0xba52…e4ff | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $42,320 | $5,910 | 1.41 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:50 | POLYFLY 0x7569…f8fd | pons-v2 | 60 | $8,292 | $38,319 | 0.76 | gateD:liq $8292 < $10000 |
| 01:48 | Orch 0x73aa…cbc0 | pons-v2 | 40 | $4,137 | $149 | gateD:liq $4137 < $10000 | |
| 01:46 | LAMP 0xaf03…dd4c | pons-v2 | 49 | $22,309 | $12,231 | 1.12 | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 |
| 01:41 | FLYLM 0xe147…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $20,879 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:38 | FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $255,847 | $13,110 | 1.07 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:31 | HOARD 0xa195…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 555 | $42,337 | $22,932 | 1.38 | gateD:buy/sell 1.38 < 1.5 |
| 01:31 | TECHNO 0x910e…7ccc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $4,305 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:29 | Flip 0x8ade…22d4 | pons-v2 | 20 | $7,049 | $19,147 | 0.43 | gateD:liq $7049 < $10000 |
| 01:28 | FLM 0x24fc…2819 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $48,504 | $32,320 | 1.73 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:23 | BlinkBoom 0x9a9e…cb85 | pons-v2 | 79 | $2 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:21 | VFOL 0x45b3…bba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:19 | MIDORI 0x1b1b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $34,294 | $122 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:17 | ENVY 0x9a74…6f71 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $28,566 | $31 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:15 | GOOGL 0x2e08…4fe3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $1,290,360 | $139,511 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:14 | FLM 0x6d70…a4c6 | pons-v2 | 32 | $33,983 | $198,722 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 01:08 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $6,281,303 | $4,866 | 6.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:06 | SOLARIS 0xaad8…3960 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $44,507 | $8,610 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:06 | EXAMCN 0x84ba…c630 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $91,150 | $38,717 | 1.10 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:01 | NEXA 0xbecb…83f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $28,897 | $6,461 | 2.31 | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:pause+setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 00:58 | ITEMS 0xd388…6151 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 405 | $50,295 | $144,550 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 00:58 | ImflybrainBOT 0x5821…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 145 | $14,907 | $6 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $6 < $5000 |
| 00:55 | HASH 0xca75…0020 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $122,628 | $11,252 | 1.29 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:39 | JOURNEY 0x24bc…55cc | pons-v2 | 30 | $13,033 | $7,767 | 1.72 | filterC:sellSim |
| 00:29 | JOE 0xb253…a243 | pons-v2 | 33 | $5,249 | $151 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 |
| 00:27 | DUCKY 0x0abf…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $25,115 | $45 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $45 < $5000 |
| 00:23 | ALLI 0x3bd6…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $8,652 | $3,774 | 1.60 | gateD:liq $8652 < $10000 |
| 00:17 | Rabbit 0x2348…5717 | pons-v2 | 41 | $4,921 | $22 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4921 < $10000 |
| 00:13 | Jensen 0x8209…8ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $10,999 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:11 | ZALA 0x1b83…63f9 | pons-v2 | 22 | $17,776 | $35,508 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSim |
| 00:06 | TNON 0xd9df…4588 | pons-v2 | 23 | $5,517 | $1,401 | 0.80 | gateD:liq $5517 < $10000 |
| 00:05 | PENDLE 0x5e49…2e0e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 161 | $113,809 | $3,488 | 2.33 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:52 | SPARKY 0x51e4…e059 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $8,681 | $496 | 0.20 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:48 | Tokenization 0x1c33…4ebb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $3,269 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 19 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 11 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 5 |
| gateD:features | 4 |
| gateD:liq | 4 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 3 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 3 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 3 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 3 |
| gateD:vol5 | 2 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 1 |
| C:ownerEoa | 1 |
| C:selectors:pause+setMaxTx | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1730 refusals checked at +1h so far. 161 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1374 | -8.4% | 69 |
| filterC | 353 | +52.6% | 92 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | GUAP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -42.6% | -42.0% |
| 02:00 | BIG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +94.7% | -94.6% |
| 02:00 | TITTIES | gateD:liq $65 < $10000 | d1 | -90.2% | +133.4% |
| 02:00 | GOOGL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +2.2% | +59.2% |
| 02:00 | TFLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -26.3% | -15.8% |
| 02:00 | CINDER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 02:00 | HASH | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -11.0% | -6.0% |
| 02:00 | ITEMS | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 | h1 | -71.3% | -46.7% |
| 02:00 | ImflybrainBOT | gateD:vol5 $6 < $5000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 01:45 | PDOOM | gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5 | d1 | -77.6% | -58.4% |
| 01:45 | CPR | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -68.6% | -62.0% |
| 01:45 | RIDE | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -94.7% | -29.3% |
| 01:45 | PORK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -57.0% | -62.6% |
| 01:45 | RIVN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 01:45 | imdbot | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -42.3% | -28.4% |
| 01:45 | RIVN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -29.1% | -24.5% |
| 01:45 | RIVN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -17.2% | -13.0% |
| 01:45 | JOURNEY | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -91.3% | -70.6% |
| 01:45 | FLYWHEEL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -91.9% | -71.2% |
| 01:30 | TYLEE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -45.1% | -25.9% |
| 01:30 | GERI | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 | d1 | -90.3% | -68.5% |
| 01:30 | LONG | gateD:vol5 $1810 < $5000 | d1 | +98.4% | +65.7% |
| 01:30 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.9% | -16.5% |
| 01:30 | MIDORU | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -45.0% | -25.6% |
| 01:30 | Nvidia | gateD:liq $6277 < $10000 | d1 | -51.6% | -30.3% |
| 01:30 | Rabbit | gateD:liq $4921 < $10000 | h1 | -39.0% | -21.9% |
| 01:30 | ALLI | gateD:liq $8652 < $10000 | h1 | -58.0% | -48.5% |
| 01:30 | DUCKY | gateD:vol5 $45 < $5000 | h1 | +37.5% | +31.6% |
| 01:30 | JOE | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 | h1 | +3.0% | +1.3% |
| 01:30 | FLYBRAIN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +943.4% | +226.6% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)