Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 03:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
2.9h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 18s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 4,579 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,180 rpc · 322 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
2,906
launches seen
→
134
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
7
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 2,556 · gate D 112 · filter C 7 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.12 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1334 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:29 | MOLLY 0x7cec…012a | pons-v2 | 38 | $6,292 | $6,130 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $6292 < $10000 |
| 02:36 | CUMMIES 0x4b08…1d43 | pons-v2 | 31 | $6,462 | $420 | 0.75 | gateD:liq $6462 < $10000 |
| 02:36 | CPU 0x00c7…47b7 | pons-v2 | 34 | $37,764 | $39,265 | 1.16 | gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5 |
| 02:36 | CPU 0x8eaa…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 155 | $23,364 | $3,651 | 1.04 | gateD:vol5 $3651 < $5000 |
| 02:35 | Schrödinger 0x4c7b…129e | pons-v2 | 63 | $18,593 | $8,117 | 2.14 | filterC:sellSim |
| 02:28 | COOKWARE 0xb71b…cc4f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $40,541 | $10,495 | 0.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:26 | COCAINE 0xc1a7…d829 | pons-v2 | 30 | $6,166 | $207 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $6166 < $10000 |
| 02:26 | SNOW 0xba0c…f47e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $95,908 | $21,100 | 0.06 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:22 | EDGE 0x9a6e…ff5a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $15,928 | $10,191 | 0.73 | gateD:buy/sell 0.73 < 1.5 |
| 02:19 | GERI 0xd795…8ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 94 | $18,152 | $1,470 | 0.60 | gateD:vol5 $1470 < $5000 |
| 02:13 | LBGJ 0xbc6e…d66d | pons-v2 | 94 | $14,730 | $49,171 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSim |
| 02:13 | LBGJ 0x4378…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 104 | $38,297 | $10,300 | 0.94 | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 |
| 02:02 | BYCOCKET 0x75ea…baac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $94,047 | $17,198 | 1.34 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:57 | CINDER 0xe137…7573 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 161 | $24,464 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:56 | TFLY 0x9c4d…2034 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 321 | $232,975 | $25,520 | 2.30 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:55 | GOOGL 0x2e08…4fe3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $813,814 | $26,673 | 1.48 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:53 | TITTIES 0xcda6…7441 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 141 | $65 | $26 | gateD:liq $65 < $10000 | |
| 01:50 | BIG 0xf821…98f2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $44 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:49 | GUAP 0xc1fa…2ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $17,215 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:44 | RIVN 0xb1bf…114b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $205,834 | $1,529,738 | 0.98 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:44 | RIVN 0x7344…7e01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 72 | $12,317 | $658 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:43 | imdbot 0x4e28…b4cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $137,365 | $14,202 | 1.18 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:42 | PORK 0x874d…ed44 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $6 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:42 | RIVN 0x6a4c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $21,253 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:41 | RIDE 0x8b3e…17f8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1507 | $45,346 | $57,989 | 1.96 | filterC:sellSim |
| 01:36 | CPR 0x2043…4551 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $13,466 | $5,406 | 5.91 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:36 | PDOOM 0x6df5…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 365 | $137,187 | $80,128 | 0.56 | gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5 |
| 01:33 | FLYWHEEL 0x5587…56f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $16,262 | $3,441 | 0.95 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:29 | MIDORU 0xa111…ac04 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $27,847 | $6,369 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:29 | Nvidia 0xece9…10bd | pons-v2 | 50 | $6,277 | $7,318 | 0.41 | gateD:liq $6277 < $10000 |
| 01:28 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $7,354,168 | $66,033 | 0.83 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:27 | LONG 0x39e6…ce97 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $16,735 | $1,810 | 11.00 | gateD:vol5 $1810 < $5000 |
| 01:23 | GERI 0x36ed…7815 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 234 | $19,889 | $40,217 | 1.35 | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 |
| 01:20 | TYLEE 0x03d4…dddd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $5,266 | $486 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:17 | FLY 0x588e…f1e4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $36,255 | $11,436 | 2.22 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:16 | CS6900 0x01b4…c9bb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $61 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:15 | FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $72,037 | $3,781 | 1.11 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:14 | GME 0xc236…4ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $278,791 | $1,219 | 0.88 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:14 | Stonkfly 0xc613…b148 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $97,658 | $4,194 | 1.11 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:13 | GME 0x1b0e…153e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $671,139 | $55,582 | 1.07 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 66 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 23 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 8 |
| gateD:liq | 6 |
| gateD:features | 5 |
| gateD:vol5 | 4 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 4 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 4 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 3 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 3 |
| C:sellSim | 3 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1262 refusals checked at +1h so far. 117 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1002 | -9.7% | 49 |
| filterC | 257 | +57.8% | 68 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:30 | ROKO | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 | d1 | -87.0% | -64.4% |
| 03:30 | MIDORI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +65.1% | +34.3% |
| 03:30 | MIDORI | gateD:liq $7499 < $10000 | d1 | -75.5% | -50.8% |
| 03:30 | GERI | gateD:vol5 $1470 < $5000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:30 | EDGE | gateD:buy/sell 0.73 < 1.5 | h1 | -43.6% | -24.7% |
| 03:30 | COCAINE | gateD:liq $6166 < $10000 | h1 | -23.4% | -12.5% |
| 03:30 | SNOW | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.6% | -8.2% |
| 03:30 | COOKWARE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -27.0% | -12.9% |
| 03:30 | MIDORI | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 | d1 | -86.8% | -63.7% |
| 03:15 | VEEFO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 03:15 | BRDY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:15 | BYCOCKET | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +4.7% | +2.5% |
| 03:15 | LBGJ | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -73.1% | -48.2% |
| 03:15 | LBGJ | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 | h1 | -33.7% | -28.2% |
| 03:00 | DUO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +96.6% | +57.2% |
| 03:00 | AGI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -89.1% | -79.9% |
| 03:00 | IRA | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +161.6% | +88.9% |
| 03:00 | GUAP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -42.6% | -42.0% |
| 03:00 | BIG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -22.0% | -17.1% |
| 03:00 | TITTIES | gateD:liq $65 < $10000 | h1 | -68.6% | +246.5% |
| 03:00 | GOOGL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.0% | +0.3% |
| 03:00 | TFLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -26.3% | -15.8% |
| 03:00 | CINDER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02:45 | Jacob | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -56.7% | -34.2% |
| 02:45 | FLYWHEEL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -63.4% | -39.5% |
| 02:45 | PDOOM | gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5 | h1 | -70.6% | -52.5% |
| 02:45 | CPR | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -58.3% | -49.6% |
| 02:45 | RIDE | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -84.0% | +22.7% |
| 02:45 | PORK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +116.8% | +46.9% |
| 02:45 | RIVN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +22.1% | +22.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)