Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 21:24 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$3.27
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$1.09
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
22.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 2m ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 2m ago silent
Socket events 26,848 · failsafes 9 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 10,369 rpc · 3,068 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

17,611
launches seen
564
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
79
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
3
opened

Refused: gate B 16,792 · gate D 482 · filter C 76 · vetoed 2 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2032-$3.27-$1.09
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (3)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
18:5118:59FARMINGCROPNFT 0xa6f1…175bGold v214.8m8m1.00xconfirm_bail-$61.68-61.7%B:505 buyers · D:liq $35396 vol5 $45498 b/s 1.91 · C:allowlist · size-up:557 distinct buyers in 30m
16:2016:39ANY 0x2d51…b963Gold v213.9m19m5.44xtrail$52.27+104.5%B:33 buyers · D:liq $14822 vol5 $15894 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · single ticket
03:3203:36Tomo 0x8661…3472Gold v215.3m4m1.84xtrail$6.14+12.3%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set340not yet
Running days0.955not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$3.27> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%67%50 to 73%met
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1256 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
21:15PIZZABOT 0x75d2…8552pons-v246$15,814$19,9931.43gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5
21:12DLM 0xa90a…9425pons-v262$6,983$10,0110.75gateD:liq $6983 < $10000
21:10FLYBRAIN 0x49ca…93e8pons-v224$10,525$6,8941.50filterC:sellSim
20:55KEKIUS 0x9eb4…3817pons-v232$14,238$12,4580.98gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5
20:30STNKCHD 0x85df…5485uniswap-v4-launchpad40$17,796$6940.83gateD:vol5 $694 < $5000
20:30BLOB 0x105f…d0ccuniswap-v4-launchpad269$22,909$2,1861.08gateD:vol5 $2186 < $5000
20:29EYWA 0x3d27…eb02uniswap-v4-launchpad104$89,981$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:26FEEZ 0x88e0…2062uniswap-v4-launchpad55$27,506$10,7181.65filterC:sellSim
20:23FEYNMAN 0x6770…0ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad66$15,607$2,5851.00gateD:vol5 $2585 < $5000
20:21credit 0xf387…4ee3uniswap-v4-launchpad86$54,462$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:13credit 0x4c8f…ef4auniswap-v4-launchpad197$30,345$48,4241.48gateD:buy/sell 1.48 < 1.5
20:12RBNHD 0x798a…4231uniswap-v4-launchpad131$5,112$1630.00gateD:liq $5112 < $10000
20:11RBNHD 0xa6c2…9679uniswap-v4-launchpad344$8,002$6,3421.02gateD:liq $8002 < $10000
20:10Yo-yo 0xf4cc…009cuniswap-v4-launchpad60$22,036$15,7331.43gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5
20:09FLY 0x57b3…fbbcuniswap-v4-launchpad59$37,793$11,9851.86filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:09BUILDING 0x9bb8…8dccuniswap-v4-launchpad361$6,598$3790.67gateD:liq $6598 < $10000
20:08AUTON 0x3765…9436uniswap-v4-launchpad37$55,427$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:06BUILDING 0x8806…7befuniswap-v4-launchpad289$68,854$21,7891.76filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:05egregore 0x8a6a…c0f4uniswap-v4-launchpad330$36,851$207,2831.34gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5
20:04RMD 0xfe64…fd2buniswap-v4-launchpad160$6,444$24,8821.13gateD:liq $6444 < $10000
20:04AUTON 0x5e1e…5eabuniswap-v4-launchpad309$6,656$2660.20gateD:liq $6656 < $10000
20:01AICAT 0x2bce…23f9uniswap-v4-launchpad133$17,202$8101.00gateD:vol5 $810 < $5000
20:00MANY 0xa269…287duniswap-v4-launchpad42$156,511$39,2981.48gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:59THEO 0x3dc7…da48uniswap-v4-launchpad89$122,453$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:55MACRO 0x33fa…b065uniswap-v4-launchpad116$69,933$32,9821.34gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5
19:53MACRO 0xbb09…4ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad1317$119,773$114,9640.66gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5
19:49KIRK 0xe1fd…2f6buniswap-v4-launchpad62$46,282$26,3751.80filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:48GME2 0x7812…6086uniswap-v4-launchpad189$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:46EDEN 0x9420…c9b6uniswap-v4-launchpad322$21,904$41,0911.26gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5
19:45CAT 0x3037…a303uniswap-v4-launchpad23$5,022$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:45EDEN 0xe6b2…1877uniswap-v4-launchpad462$136,892$11,2201.85filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:43P I N 0x4d7d…5c00uniswap-v4-launchpad177$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:43Yield 0x13c1…fa82uniswap-v4-launchpad66$4,642$460.25gateD:liq $4642 < $10000
19:41CAT 0x9012…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad59$20,413$92.00gateD:vol5 $9 < $5000
19:41CAT 0xf1fc…7c64uniswap-v4-launchpad253$5,999$1,3130.61gateD:liq $5999 < $10000
19:39FLY 0x6a03…86f5uniswap-v4-launchpad34$5,362$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:38MARIO 0xb713…0598uniswap-v4-launchpad243$4,921$60.00gateD:liq $4921 < $10000
19:37DESK 0x5340…fba3uniswap-v4-launchpad107$52,164$7,8870.53gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:36P I N 0xfaef…e030uniswap-v4-launchpad116$4,061$450.13gateD:liq $4061 < $10000
19:32PENNY 0xa72b…ad29uniswap-v4-launchpad217$23,872$24,0991.05gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool264
C:notV2VsWeth65
C:creatorShareUnknown65
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager61
gateD:features56
gateD:buy/sell54
gateD:liq53
C:swapsH1<25042
gateD:poolMismatch34
gateD:vol518
C:copycat6
C:sellSimStale6
C:sellSim5
C:liquidityUnder$250005
C:lpNotVerifiable:none4
C:tapeRatio>44
missed the window3
veto:+5m zero sells2
C:ownerEoa2
C:denyConstant1
C:selectors:setMaxTx1
C:selectors:mint1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1183 refusals checked at +1h so far. 107 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD933-9.9%41
filterC247+59.8%66
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
21:15BlissfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+105.1%+63.8%
21:15KIRKgateD:liq $6343 < $10000d1-51.1%-30.0%
21:15UNCODEDgateD:vol5 $2398 < $5000d1-23.6%-13.0%
21:15DEPTHgateD:vol5 $930 < $5000d1-85.1%-61.8%
21:15OWNERSHIPgateD:liq $5810 < $10000d1-55.8%-33.5%
21:15OWNERSHIPgateD:liq $5250 < $10000d1-46.6%-27.0%
21:15DUOfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
21:15WZAIgateD:vol5 $2673 < $5000d1-25.3%-22.6%
21:15DuogateD:liq $3818 < $10000d1-16.2%-7.9%
21:15IDUOgateD:liq $6962 < $10000d1-70.2%-45.1%
21:15DUOgateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5d1-70.2%-44.5%
21:15COGNgateD:liq $8961 < $10000d1n/an/a
21:15ApesgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-64.4%-43.3%
21:15MANYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+103.7%+43.0%
21:15AICATgateD:vol5 $810 < $5000h1-13.8%-8.3%
21:15RMDgateD:liq $6444 < $10000h1-37.3%-20.8%
21:15AUTONgateD:liq $6656 < $10000h1-36.9%-20.3%
21:15egregoregateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5h1-71.8%-48.3%
21:15BUILDINGfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
21:15AUTONgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
21:15BUILDINGgateD:liq $6598 < $10000h1-45.9%-26.5%
21:15FLYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+11.0%+8.9%
21:15Yo-yogateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5h1-22.9%-12.0%
21:15RBNHDgateD:liq $8002 < $10000h1-44.9%-25.8%
21:15RBNHDgateD:liq $5112 < $10000h1-5.8%-3.0%
21:15creditgateD:buy/sell 1.48 < 1.5h1-96.9%-82.4%
21:15GBOTgateD:liq $6585 < $10000d1-44.9%-26.3%
21:00BITCOINgateD:buy/sell 0.46 < 1.5d1+3082.5%+443.7%
21:00$HZTDONUTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
21:00TRUMPgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-50.5%-42.2%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)