Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 19:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$56.73
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
1 won · 1 open
Per trade
-$18.91
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
10.5h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 25s ago ok
Socket events 16,725 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 5,301 rpc · 1,531 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

12,687
launches seen
297
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
50
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
4
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
4
opened

Refused: gate B 12,315 · gate D 235 · filter C 46 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2131-$56.73-$18.91
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (1)

openedtokensetentrymarknowpeakleftrealizedwhy admitted
19:04CANAL 0xb796…aec8Gold v2$500.00018641.41x1.68x50%$7.20B:72 buyers · D:liq $33980 vol5 $5462 b/s 2.64 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Closed trades (3)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
17:3619:06JOMO 0xf238…1c91Gold v212m90m1.06xmax_hold-$12.66-25.3%B:34 buyers · D:liq $17299 vol5 $5055 b/s 2.71 · C:allowlist · single ticket
12:4613:05USDUG 0xdd43…eb85Gold v213.7m20m1.90xtrail$15.52+15.5%B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m
11:0911:11SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8dGold v211.5m3m1.00xstop-$59.59-59.6%B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set340not yet
Running days0.445not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$56.73> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%33%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 396 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
19:27ANTH 0xf2ce…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad35$22,216$4610.00gateD:vol5 $461 < $5000
19:27FROGE 0xef41…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad404$41,772$16,2510.58gateD:buy/sell 0.58 < 1.5
19:27OPENAI 0x85a4…0970uniswap-v4-launchpad56$74,865$16,9590.94gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:26AITAX 0xb244…7db0uniswap-v4-launchpad973$53,823$143,8530.64gateD:buy/sell 0.64 < 1.5
19:25ANTHROPIC 0x4eb5…1cf4uniswap-v4-launchpad21$35,361$2930.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:24XMR 0x38f7…235cuniswap-v4-launchpad73$23,957$79,1850.98gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:23MCAT 0x226b…b10buniswap-v4-launchpad28$29,687$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:22DATACENTER 0xd8fb…d489uniswap-v4-launchpad54$51,162$11,2291.90filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:21MONEROCHAN 0x12fd…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad1268$107,838$68,0841.00gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5
19:21STANDARD 0x8bb5…7e01uniswap-v4-launchpad33$4,173$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:20MUCAT 0x21a3…4e01uniswap-v4-launchpad122$3,229$2,6681.45gateD:liq $3229 < $10000
19:18VEEF 0xe244…cba3uniswap-v4-launchpad38$0$60.33gateD:liq $0 < $10000
19:17DUAT 0x2c0f…3bcduniswap-v4-launchpad61$97$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:17AISTR 0x593f…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad32$20,164$1,3780.00gateD:vol5 $1378 < $5000
19:15TWLF 0x7141…c93cuniswap-v4-launchpad24$1,818$1,2921.78gateD:liq $1818 < $10000
19:14URANUS 0xc2b2…02cauniswap-v4-launchpad63$52,211$13,2321.55filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:14INF 0xdfe1…974buniswap-v4-launchpad387$5,304$2720.00gateD:liq $5304 < $10000
19:13BEE 0x5fc2…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad186$30,937$3,4341.45gateD:vol5 $3434 < $5000
19:12UBIK 0x8124…68bduniswap-v4-launchpad30$468,157$8,5142.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:11CLUB 0xd34b…1297uniswap-v4-launchpad32$4,939$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:07GPTHEIST 0xbabb…2242uniswap-v4-launchpad33$14,693$5,0371.17gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5
19:06ORIKA 0x59c4…eba3uniswap-v4-launchpad56$9,607$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:04CANAL 0xb796…aec8uniswap-v4-launchpad72$33,980$5,4622.64ADMITTED
19:01CTO 0xdfb4…7673uniswap-v4-launchpad60$46,749$16,1892.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:56COLLECTIBLE 0xe470…8efduniswap-v4-launchpad203$5,701$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:55WSG 0xaa86…d80funiswap-v4-launchpad54$15,488$1,0682.00gateD:vol5 $1068 < $5000
18:54CHOOD 0x76fc…2b07uniswap-v4-launchpad50$30,552$3940.00gateD:vol5 $394 < $5000
18:52HNC 0xc07c…79a0uniswap-v4-launchpad44$5,111$4550.23gateD:liq $5111 < $10000
18:50PONSATHON 0x1710…37beuniswap-v4-launchpad36$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:50KIMCHI 0xc090…3779uniswap-v4-launchpad122$47,266$17,6341.77filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
18:48ELIZABAO 0x91e0…bd79uniswap-v4-launchpad152$123,638$56,9491.97filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:47BROS 0x28dd…3814uniswap-v4-launchpad83$63,281$18,3212.86filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:47BROS 0x9db5…d2ffuniswap-v4-launchpad247$9,461$9,1091.13gateD:liq $9461 < $10000
18:46ELIZABAO 0x5f4e…1e47uniswap-v4-launchpad324$44,769$179,5890.85gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5
18:41UPS 0x48bc…c3dauniswap-v4-launchpad203$37,512$27,2680.58gateD:buy/sell 0.58 < 1.5
18:38UPS 0x09df…66d8uniswap-v4-launchpad115$107,956$25,4181.64filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:37SLABR 0x363b…9f09uniswap-v4-launchpad335$6,059$4,3400.37gateD:liq $6059 < $10000
18:35INVESTOR 0x6612…3881uniswap-v4-launchpad63$51,590$24,7001.61filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:34LAPTOP 0xe936…d467uniswap-v4-launchpad62$39,226$11,1811.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:34ARROWSHOT 0x2383…1466uniswap-v4-launchpad32$37,640$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool100
gateD:features45
C:notV2VsWeth38
C:creatorShareUnknown38
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager37
gateD:liq29
gateD:buy/sell24
C:swapsH1<25024
gateD:poolMismatch22
gateD:vol515
C:sellSimStale4
C:sellSim4
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:copycat1
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

339 refusals checked at +1h so far. 25 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD275-9.6%12
filterC64+20.2%13
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
19:30udoggateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-3.5%-3.4%
19:30STONKNFTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+19.8%+13.4%
19:30PUSHEEN⁠gateD:liq $6086 < $10000h1-63.1%-39.2%
19:30POPCORNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
19:30TRADESgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-14.8%-7.7%
19:30POPCORNgateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5h1+111.3%+43.1%
19:15UDOGEgateD:liq $6010 < $10000h1+3.5%+2.5%
19:15NIKEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+17.8%+12.4%
19:00yuppiefilterC:sellSimStaleh1-83.1%-59.1%
19:00NIKEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
19:00UcatgateD:liq $8048 < $10000h1-17.5%-13.0%
19:00JUSTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+21.5%+14.7%
19:00PLOTgateD:vol5 $1156 < $5000h1-9.2%-8.8%
18:45AnthropicgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
18:45BZZgateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5h1-73.6%-48.5%
18:45PUSHEENgateD:vol5 $533 < $5000h1-11.6%-11.2%
18:45ASHIBAfilterC:sellSimStaleh1+58.4%+25.9%
18:45PusheengateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5h1-42.6%-24.3%
18:45nubgateD:liq $3673 < $10000h1+5.7%+2.6%
18:45LUWAMAgateD:liq $5581 < $10000h1-3.5%-1.5%
18:30SGDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
18:30BZZfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+13.8%+8.9%
18:30HOODLANDgateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5h1-72.4%-48.6%
18:30HOODLANDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-77.0%-100.0%
18:15USDEgateD:liq $6327 < $10000h1-42.3%-24.0%
18:15USDEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-0.2%-0.3%
18:15NVIDIAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
18:15Coca ColagateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
18:15KnightfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+28.7%+19.7%
18:15CDRMgateD:liq $4435 < $10000h1-11.4%-11.0%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)