Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 07:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 12s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 13s ago ok
Socket events 10,074 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,952 rpc · 826 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
6,078
launches seen
→
299
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
25
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 5,550 · gate D 266 · filter C 25 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.28 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1432 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:27 | flywheel 0x8541…1f99 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $83,445 | $21,243 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:26 | flywheel 0xaec7…8d7a | pons-v2 | 73 | $9,428 | $14,094 | 0.87 | gateD:liq $9428 < $10000 |
| 07:25 | LUMO 0x44ca…c7cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 287 | $17,987 | $23,194 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 07:20 | MMCW 0x0c6d…8e8b | pons-v2 | 54 | $40 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:18 | Flygma 0x3b40…8144 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $53,448 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:14 | Flygma 0x8f5f…ff9f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 123 | $36,355 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:13 | WORMBRAIN 0x2703…05d1 | pons-v2 | 53 | $27,813 | $130,421 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSim |
| 07:09 | ELJEFE 0x19a5…217a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $0 | $0 | 1.42 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 07:05 | zebrafishbrain 0xd7a9…b2b3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $52,009 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:04 | ZEBRAFISHBRAIN 0x84e6…0373 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $82,124 | $42,891 | 2.32 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:02 | zebrafishbrain 0xa5b5…a67f | pons-v2 | 60 | $11,888 | $28,417 | 1.30 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 |
| 07:02 | sugar 0x8578…601b | pons-v2 | 57 | $9,899 | $30,474 | 1.27 | gateD:liq $9899 < $10000 |
| 06:56 | Flygma 0xd9f0…9b79 | pons-v2 | 42 | $14,553 | $13,079 | 0.90 | gateD:buy/sell 0.90 < 1.5 |
| 06:54 | YOINK 0x3771…40be | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 236 | $48,174 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:52 | FLYBORG 0xeba6…c851 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $36,997 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:51 | YOINK 0x9a04…2bd4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 89 | $6,882 | $15 | gateD:liq $6882 < $10000 | |
| 06:50 | BONER 0x9809…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $484,695 | $6,683 | 0.71 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:48 | GAS 0x72a6…e4a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $0 | $0 | 1.97 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 06:45 | SEXFLY 0xa718…4233 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $46,292 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:39 | FLYBORG 0x5c5d…f55c | pons-v2 | 47 | $24,044 | $24,966 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSim |
| 06:37 | KIBSHI 0x5f63…6ce4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $7,659 | $2,092 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $7659 < $10000 |
| 06:33 | DOGGYCOIN 0xe87f…2601 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $5,836 | $284 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:33 | ALCH 0x1525…e20c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 98 | $82,041 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:33 | SEXFLY 0xa0f4…9d90 | pons-v2 | 58 | $28,186 | $188,177 | 1.04 | gateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5 |
| 06:33 | Samu 0x08b6…8073 | pons-v2 | 48 | $18,875 | $48,565 | 1.59 | filterC:sellSim |
| 06:27 | PEPECORP 0x093e…9c1f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $36,307 | $17,288 | 0.96 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:26 | SLV 0x411e…d89f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $406,006 | $1,287 | 0.76 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:24 | WORM 0xb12c…5b4e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 115 | $71,528 | $45,853 | 1.58 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:23 | DOGGY 0x0b3c…e3ee | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 78 | $62,037 | $38,293 | 0.88 | gateD:buy/sell 0.88 < 1.5 |
| 06:20 | Cock 0xb88f…57a6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 101 | $5,458 | $46 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5458 < $10000 |
| 06:20 | JOHN 0x9751…5d7d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $4,472 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:20 | TwoBirds 0xd2ef…62dd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $4,426 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:20 | STERLING 0x5dfb…eef0 | pons-v2 | 78 | $18,996 | $46,919 | 1.22 | gateD:buy/sell 1.22 < 1.5 |
| 06:19 | DOGGY 0x37a0…ad80 | pons-v2 | 48 | $11,151 | $39,030 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSim |
| 06:13 | pigeon 0x9e1c…7a06 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $4,876 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:13 | FLOCK 0x6b7e…9dce | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $4,547 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:13 | QQQ 0xba79…d7e4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $2,950 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:12 | Pigeo 0xc074…2ea8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $4,212 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:11 | JOHN 0xddf1…15df | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 103 | $5,249 | $1,051 | 0.80 | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 |
| 06:11 | ARCAT 0xa795…1851 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $4,514 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 135 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 40 |
| gateD:features | 30 |
| gateD:liq | 25 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 22 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 15 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 15 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 14 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 11 |
| C:sellSim | 10 |
| gateD:vol5 | 9 |
| missed the window | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 2 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1331 refusals checked at +1h so far. 121 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1059 | -9.7% | 52 |
| filterC | 269 | +55.1% | 69 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:15 | flysim | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +239.9% | +151.6% |
| 07:15 | egg | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -75.8% | -62.4% |
| 07:15 | roost | gateD:liq $7900 < $10000 | h1 | -56.4% | -48.2% |
| 07:15 | ALCH | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | h1 | +42.1% | +28.3% |
| 07:15 | DATA | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +19.3% | +11.2% |
| 07:15 | Hoot | gateD:liq $6655 < $10000 | h1 | -53.1% | -47.2% |
| 07:15 | birdy | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -27.1% | -100.0% |
| 07:15 | ARCAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -27.0% | -25.2% |
| 07:15 | ROOSTER | gateD:liq $6047 < $10000 | h1 | -33.1% | -28.2% |
| 07:15 | JOHN | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 | h1 | -30.3% | -26.9% |
| 07:15 | Pigeo | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -9.0% | -8.3% |
| 07:15 | QQQ | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -13.7% | -100.0% |
| 07:15 | pigeon | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -25.9% | -23.3% |
| 07:15 | FLOCK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -21.8% | -20.0% |
| 07:00 | SPIRITS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 07:00 | SPIRITS | gateD:liq $6599 < $10000 | d1 | -65.2% | -41.0% |
| 07:00 | LOCKHEEDINU | gateD:vol5 $94 < $5000 | d1 | -24.5% | -20.2% |
| 07:00 | BTC | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -38.4% | -22.3% |
| 07:00 | DIVIDEND | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -35.2% | -29.9% |
| 07:00 | EWY6900 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 | MINE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +43.1% | +24.6% |
| 07:00 | EWY6900 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 | unicoin | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 06:45 | FLY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:45 | gateD:liq $8898 < $10000 | d1 | -67.4% | -60.1% | |
| 06:45 | FLY | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 | d1 | +23.6% | +11.5% |
| 06:45 | Fly | gateD:liq $9543 < $10000 | d1 | -68.7% | -43.8% |
| 06:45 | FLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +39.0% | +22.3% |
| 06:45 | fIycoin | gateD:vol5 $526 < $5000 | d1 | -54.3% | -48.8% |
| 06:45 | ELEV8 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)