Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 07:46 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$117.94
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
5
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$23.59
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.0h
since 08 Sept, 01:43 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 30s ago ok
Socket events 9,854 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,872 rpc · 888 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

6,073
launches seen
253
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
22
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
5
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
5
opened

Refused: gate B 5,655 · gate D 229 · filter C 17 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2051-$117.94-$23.59
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (5)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
04:5005:37RVA 0x3d94…5b6dGold v211m48m1.25xstop-$25.58-51.2%B:49 buyers · D:liq $16976 vol5 $7952 b/s 1.65 · C:allowlist · single ticket
04:2004:23WWW 0x3a0e…ecf4Gold v210.1m3m1.00xstop-$25.58-51.2%B:33 buyers · D:liq $19090 vol5 $26407 b/s 1.62 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:1303:23SWEEP 0x73f6…aed8Gold v211.5m70m1.67xtrail$9.08+9.1%B:154 buyers · D:liq $14665 vol5 $9554 b/s 1.61 · C:allowlist · size-up:156 distinct buyers in 30m
03:0503:10Spyder 0x5f67…975cGold v210.1m5m1.12xstop-$25.58-51.2%B:28 buyers · D:liq $18500 vol5 $28097 b/s 1.56 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:1002:13UNITY 0x1fc0…fa41Gold v214.4m2m1.00xstop-$50.28-50.3%B:491 buyers · D:liq $14171 vol5 $13491 b/s 1.79 · C:allowlist · size-up:501 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set540not yet
Running days0.255not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$117.94> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%20%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 201 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
07:24LAUNCHPAD 0x5d8b…9860uniswap-v4-launchpad95$4,795$50.00gateD:liq $4795 < $10000
07:14LIQUITITTY 0x0442…543auniswap-v4-launchpad76$100,838$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
07:08LIQUITITTY 0x64eb…a478uniswap-v4-launchpad121$72,375$24,1621.52filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:59LIQUITITTY 0x0fff…a6fapons-v233$24,108$67,7601.36gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5
06:57STRIKE 0x43ff…3debpons-v220$3,770$10gateD:liq $3770 < $10000
06:54QFMM 0xe7cc…3c9funiswap-v4-launchpad55$64,985$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:37PAINT 0x8c49…0628pons-v282$15,757$17,9381.26gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5
06:36REMEMBER 0x7800…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad30$25,316$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:34BISCOTTI 0x7cd7…deb1uniswap-v4-launchpad26$180,698$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:29ARTON 0x3617…deabuniswap-v4-launchpad180$67,162$67,4171.90filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:27AP 0x69c6…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad38$236,541$3760.71gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:25STBL 0xef36…a80euniswap-v4-launchpad102$45,289$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:15WHEEL 0x153b…d419uniswap-v4-launchpad117$116,472$44,7291.15gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5
06:09FYNNEL 0x172a…2806uniswap-v4-launchpad130$44,129$23,6801.60filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:08PARABOLA 0x09dc…86cfuniswap-v4-launchpad185$90,589$26,4920.84gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5
05:58PARABOLA 0x9183…2fd4pons-v236$30,306$44,4690.93gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5
05:56TULIP 0x038e…6846pons-v278$4,963$1,3270.47gateD:liq $4963 < $10000
05:56neuron 0x7fe9…51d5uniswap-v4-launchpad172$68,444$19,7931.81filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
05:50COMOTITTIES 0x91e4…dac4uniswap-v4-launchpad51$13,212$7,3932.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
05:50EQUITY 0xd80d…567duniswap-v4-launchpad101$65,217$29,9350.97gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5
05:47STOCKSS 0x7bc5…3f27uniswap-v4-launchpad29$18,090$3,1241.67gateD:vol5 $3124 < $5000
05:35ANYTHINGPAD 0x7fdc…737duniswap-v4-launchpad38$35,667$58,1831.05gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:35Layers 0x02a3…b8c3uniswap-v4-launchpad239$24,951$24,5640.61gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5
05:31SOYJAK 0x9b99…368cuniswap-v4-launchpad33$3,878$2,1611.14gateD:liq $3878 < $10000
05:31CAPITALCAT 0x0521…75c8uniswap-v4-launchpad222$10,360$4870.63gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:30CAPITALCAT 0xb1c4…10fcpons-v224$8,406$8,4071.01gateD:liq $8406 < $10000
05:29LIENSTRATEGY 0x91cf…e56buniswap-v4-launchpad88$83,640$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:29unc 0x3fcf…7f85pons-v254$8$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:16Stockcat 0xe9ca…d64cpons-v273$6,095$3690.17gateD:liq $6095 < $10000
05:13FREAK 0x42f2…545auniswap-v4-launchpad82$59,805$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:11SHEEP 0x464b…3043pons-v243$12,700$14,0351.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
05:11ECHELON 0x87f1…b326uniswap-v4-launchpad28$14,030$1,1960.80gateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000
05:10KEY 0x1f40…a201uniswap-v4-launchpad35$4,132$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:06HOUSE 0x0476…f1c9pons-v242$5,656$256gateD:liq $5656 < $10000
05:02WONKA 0x6157…46b7pons-v241$17,210$5,2731.89filterC:sellSimStale
05:01KERVON 0x7073…15f7pons-v247$3,992$1430.06gateD:liq $3992 < $10000
04:57FREAK 0xe3c2…3d02uniswap-v4-launchpad42$23,779$9,3542.52filterC:sellSimStale
04:57SXY 0x1a70…43afpons-v250$6,564$11,2010.69gateD:liq $6564 < $10000
04:56MILKERS 0x18f9…e8cfuniswap-v4-launchpad66$5,215$21,1061.02gateD:liq $5215 < $10000
04:53BITCORN 0x3a48…c7c4uniswap-v4-launchpad27$5,601$28,0631.22gateD:liq $5601 < $10000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool125
gateD:liq30
gateD:poolMismatch29
gateD:features25
gateD:buy/sell15
C:notV2VsWeth12
C:creatorShareUnknown12
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager11
gateD:vol55
C:swapsH1<2504
C:sellSimStale3
C:sellSim2
C:copycat1
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

183 refusals checked at +1h so far. 10 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD158-12.4%5
filterC25+1.6%5
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
07:45REMEMBERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-26.3%-24.7%
07:45PAINTgateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5h1-75.1%-50.1%
07:45BISCOTTIgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+2.4%+1.2%
07:30STBLgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
07:30APgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-3.3%-1.8%
07:30ARTONfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-11.9%-8.4%
07:30WHEELgateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5h1+14.5%+8.5%
07:15PARABOLAgateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5h1-41.3%-29.8%
07:15FYNNELfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
07:00EQUITYgateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5h1+21.4%+14.0%
07:00COMOTITTIESfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownh1-81.3%-56.0%
07:00neuronfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+5.9%-100.0%
07:00TULIPgateD:liq $4963 < $10000h1-51.4%-30.3%
07:00PARABOLAgateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5h1-78.7%-52.0%
07:00STOCKSSgateD:vol5 $3124 < $5000h1-1.9%-1.1%
06:45CAPITALCATgateD:liq $8406 < $10000h1-67.5%-43.0%
06:45CAPITALCATgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.1%-0.5%
06:45SOYJAKgateD:liq $3878 < $10000h1-67.8%-95.5%
06:45LayersgateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5h1-76.9%-52.0%
06:45ANYTHINGPADgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-57.5%-35.0%
06:30StockcatgateD:liq $6095 < $10000h1+1.6%+0.4%
06:30uncgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-56.0%+65461.8%
06:30LIENSTRATEGYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
06:15SHEEPgateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5h1-40.4%-23.0%
06:15FREAKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
06:15KERVONgateD:liq $3992 < $10000h1-10.7%-5.5%
06:15WONKAfilterC:sellSimStaleh1-31.2%-17.0%
06:15HOUSEgateD:liq $5656 < $10000h1-6.4%-3.3%
06:15KEYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
06:15ECHELONgateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000h1-46.7%-27.1%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)