Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 15:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$44.07
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.04
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.5h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 8,118 · failsafes 2 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,235 rpc · 923 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
6,187
launches seen
→
144
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
22
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
2
opened
Refused: gate B 5,564 · gate D 118 · filter C 20 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -$44.07 | -$22.04 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (2)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:46 | 13:05 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | Gold v2 | 13.7m | 20m | 1.90x | trail | $15.52 | +15.5% | B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:09 | 11:11 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$59.59 | -59.6% | B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 2 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.27 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$44.07 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 50% | 50 to 73% | met |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 292 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:31 | POND 0x2889…0ea7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 133 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:27 | MeowDeng 0x142d…c12d | pons-v2 | 28 | $8,104 | $6,654 | 0.83 | gateD:liq $8104 < $10000 |
| 15:26 | haMSTR 0x8732…14fc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $60,630 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:24 | VLEAP 0x7a02…0117 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $59,952 | $14,178 | 2.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:23 | Treecoin 0xac92…25f0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 71 | $49,468 | $19,276 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:19 | OG 0x6460…d923 | pons-v2 | 30 | $1 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:18 | YES 0x5a9e…d1a7 | pons-v2 | 68 | $15,713 | $88,343 | 1.41 | gateD:buy/sell 1.41 < 1.5 |
| 15:14 | RSTR 0x78b9…025d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $230,939 | $34,242 | 0.93 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 15:14 | John 0x1517…46ff | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $41,395 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 15:11 | SHVL 0xcbd8…2518 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 154 | $56,908 | $37,229 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:01 | NVIDIA 0xd54f…9643 | pons-v2 | 29 | $7 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:57 | OH 0x9afa…c767 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 170 | $8,032 | $666 | 1.33 | gateD:liq $8032 < $10000 |
| 14:55 | QI 0xb4e2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 293 | $44,190 | $8,380 | 0.68 | gateD:buy/sell 0.68 < 1.5 |
| 14:53 | MEMORY 0x3675…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 158 | $24,884 | $9,535 | 1.58 | filterC:sellSim |
| 14:53 | qINU 0x9e82…6ab9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $83,430 | $20,225 | 1.65 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:48 | qINU 0x6a38…fc6c | pons-v2 | 56 | $28,240 | $99,540 | 0.99 | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 |
| 13:20 | Sirius 0x540e…95e0 | pons-v2 | 52 | $6,444 | $16,629 | 0.64 | gateD:liq $6444 < $10000 |
| 13:08 | VENN 0xe3f5…f389 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $32,440 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:07 | VENN 0xc1f3…ac31 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $28,157 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:02 | VENN 0x0a6e…a9de | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $36,959 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:58 | MONI 0x612e…e8e6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $4,108 | $1,861 | 0.35 | gateD:liq $4108 < $10000 |
| 12:57 | RELL 0x9945…be96 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 77 | $21,901 | $4,512 | 7.67 | gateD:vol5 $4512 < $5000 |
| 12:52 | RECOVER 0xfcbe…7a6a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 312 | $12,825 | $2,990 | 2.33 | gateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000 |
| 12:51 | SGOV 0x92fd…f9b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $3,836,159 | $3,413 | 0.93 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:50 | HOODSTRATEGY 0x4ea8…10ba | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 114 | $66,184 | $11,154 | 1.57 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:49 | HOODSTRATEGY 0xff1a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $27,605 | $6,032 | 1.58 | filterC:sellSim |
| 12:46 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 91 | $11,083 | $9,845 | 1.50 | ADMITTED |
| 12:44 | STRC 0xe292…2457 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 473 | $15,040 | $6,586 | 1.05 | gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5 |
| 12:43 | ROOT 0x9698…11d0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 129 | $96,725 | $33,140 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:40 | MSTR 0xec26…da09 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 46 | $1,139,273 | $105,743 | 1.17 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:39 | haMSTR 0x3604…697f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 271 | $145,288 | $36,406 | 1.33 | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 |
| 12:37 | STRC 0x6612…bd4e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 180 | $7,297 | $338 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $7297 < $10000 |
| 12:36 | STRC 0x0d58…8214 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:34 | haMSTR 0x0b6a…b429 | pons-v2 | 26 | $21,810 | $151,385 | 0.99 | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 |
| 12:34 | STRC 0xb50f…c6b6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1182 | $13,272 | $28,920 | 0.77 | gateD:buy/sell 0.77 < 1.5 |
| 12:33 | STRC 0x39b2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $21,337 | $107 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $107 < $5000 |
| 12:33 | Uranus 0x8caf…8ccf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $12,457 | $157 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:32 | STRC 0x1a28…58bf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 197 | $90,710 | $6,947 | 1.74 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:28 | EMC 0x9cec…a4ed | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $31,592 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:23 | 4WALL 0x8dfb…7ba0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $41,427 | $708 | 23.50 | gateD:vol5 $708 < $5000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 59 |
| gateD:features | 17 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 16 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 16 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 16 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 16 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 12 |
| gateD:vol5 | 7 |
| gateD:liq | 7 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 6 |
| C:sellSimStale | 2 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
262 refusals checked at +1h so far. 18 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 219 | -9.0% | 10 |
| filterC | 43 | +20.1% | 8 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Sirius | gateD:liq $6444 < $10000 | h1 | -5.5% | -2.8% |
| 14:15 | VENN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:15 | VENN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:15 | VENN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:00 | RELL | gateD:vol5 $4512 < $5000 | h1 | +99.6% | +50.5% |
| 14:00 | MONI | gateD:liq $4108 < $10000 | h1 | -52.3% | -95.4% |
| 14:00 | HOODSTRATEGY | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -19.2% | -17.5% |
| 14:00 | HOODSTRATEGY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:00 | SGOV | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | 0.0% | +1.4% |
| 14:00 | RECOVER | gateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000 | h1 | -68.1% | -43.4% |
| 13:45 | STRC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +2.2% | +1.4% |
| 13:45 | Uranus | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| 13:45 | STRC | gateD:vol5 $107 < $5000 | h1 | -0.1% | -0.0% |
| 13:45 | STRC | gateD:buy/sell 0.77 < 1.5 | h1 | -23.0% | -12.3% |
| 13:45 | haMSTR | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 | h1 | -17.7% | -9.3% |
| 13:45 | STRC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 13:45 | STRC | gateD:liq $7297 < $10000 | h1 | -43.4% | -24.8% |
| 13:45 | haMSTR | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 | h1 | +27.1% | +14.9% |
| 13:45 | MSTR | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.2% | -11.1% |
| 13:45 | ROOT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +45.5% | +26.0% |
| 13:45 | STRC | gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5 | h1 | -6.4% | -3.3% |
| 13:30 | EMC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 13:30 | 4WALL | gateD:vol5 $708 < $5000 | h1 | +69.5% | +35.1% |
| 13:30 | EMC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13:15 | ASTEROID | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +16.8% | +9.1% |
| 13:00 | ASSAY | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 | h1 | +259.3% | +119.3% |
| 13:00 | Chaton | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 | h1 | -71.0% | -46.2% |
| 12:45 | FloorPad | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +298.7% | +141.9% |
| 12:45 | FAT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +6.9% | +4.1% |
| 12:45 | FAT | gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5 | h1 | +5.0% | +1.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)