Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 09:40 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.6h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 13s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 19s ago ok
Socket events 513 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 301 rpc · 70 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
398
launches seen
→
10
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
0
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 238 · gate D 9 · filter C 0 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.03 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 216 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:34 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $1,703,889 | $57,046 | 5.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:33 | O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $64,470 | $11,331 | 1.24 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:30 | LISTED 0x09c1…e115 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 09:27 | CME 0xe232…e795 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $143,209 | $6,738 | 0.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:24 | ALC 0xe95a…dbac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 158 | $47,667 | $13,574 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 08:53 | bracket 0xb415…a8dd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $81,974 | $45,818 | 1.34 | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 |
| 08:49 | bracket 0x831a…35a1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:29 | SNDKS 0x8c9d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $19,727 | $7,526 | 1.81 | filterC:sellSim |
| 08:27 | IQ 0x0898…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 134 | $87,602 | $24,054 | 0.85 | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 |
| 08:24 | Chaton 0x4521…772e | pons-v2 | 80 | $5 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:23 | Chaton 0x37cc…f12d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 105 | $55,861 | $9,349 | 2.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 08:20 | VEEF 0xfa58…cba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $0 | $39 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 08:15 | HTB 0x8af5…8f8a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 136 | $44,442 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:14 | Hoody 0xf5c0…8c72 | pons-v2 | 67 | $5,641 | $6,508 | 0.70 | gateD:liq $5641 < $10000 |
| 08:12 | ORBIA 0x0845…cf1a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $48,059 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:24 | LAUNCHPAD 0x5d8b…9860 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 95 | $4,795 | $5 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4795 < $10000 |
| 07:14 | LIQUITITTY 0x0442…543a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 76 | $100,838 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:08 | LIQUITITTY 0x64eb…a478 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 121 | $72,375 | $24,162 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:59 | LIQUITITTY 0x0fff…a6fa | pons-v2 | 33 | $24,108 | $67,760 | 1.36 | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 |
| 06:57 | STRIKE 0x43ff…3deb | pons-v2 | 20 | $3,770 | $10 | gateD:liq $3770 < $10000 | |
| 06:54 | QFMM 0xe7cc…3c9f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 55 | $64,985 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:37 | PAINT 0x8c49…0628 | pons-v2 | 82 | $15,757 | $17,938 | 1.26 | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 |
| 06:36 | REMEMBER 0x7800…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $25,316 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:34 | BISCOTTI 0x7cd7…deb1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $180,698 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 06:29 | ARTON 0x3617…deab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 180 | $67,162 | $67,417 | 1.90 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:27 | AP 0x69c6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $236,541 | $376 | 0.71 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:25 | STBL 0xef36…a80e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $45,289 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:15 | WHEEL 0x153b…d419 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $116,472 | $44,729 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 06:09 | FYNNEL 0x172a…2806 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 130 | $44,129 | $23,680 | 1.60 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:08 | PARABOLA 0x09dc…86cf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 185 | $90,589 | $26,492 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 05:58 | PARABOLA 0x9183…2fd4 | pons-v2 | 36 | $30,306 | $44,469 | 0.93 | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 |
| 05:56 | TULIP 0x038e…6846 | pons-v2 | 78 | $4,963 | $1,327 | 0.47 | gateD:liq $4963 < $10000 |
| 05:56 | neuron 0x7fe9…51d5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 172 | $68,444 | $19,793 | 1.81 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:50 | COMOTITTIES 0x91e4…dac4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $13,212 | $7,393 | 2.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:50 | EQUITY 0xd80d…567d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 101 | $65,217 | $29,935 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 05:47 | STOCKSS 0x7bc5…3f27 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $18,090 | $3,124 | 1.67 | gateD:vol5 $3124 < $5000 |
| 05:35 | ANYTHINGPAD 0x7fdc…737d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $35,667 | $58,183 | 1.05 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:35 | Layers 0x02a3…b8c3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 239 | $24,951 | $24,564 | 0.61 | gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5 |
| 05:31 | SOYJAK 0x9b99…368c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $3,878 | $2,161 | 1.14 | gateD:liq $3878 < $10000 |
| 05:31 | CAPITALCAT 0x0521…75c8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 222 | $10,360 | $487 | 0.63 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 4 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 3 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 1 |
| gateD:features | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
197 refusals checked at +1h so far. 10 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 169 | -12.3% | 5 |
| filterC | 28 | +3.2% | 5 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | HTB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:30 | VEEF | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 09:30 | Chaton | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +12.6% | -100.0% |
| 09:30 | Chaton | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:30 | IQ | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 | h1 | +20.2% | +12.2% |
| 09:30 | SNDKS | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 09:15 | ORBIA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:15 | Hoody | gateD:liq $5641 < $10000 | h1 | -51.8% | -30.6% |
| 08:30 | LAUNCHPAD | gateD:liq $4795 < $10000 | h1 | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 08:15 | LIQUITITTY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +38.2% | +23.5% |
| 08:15 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08:00 | STRIKE | gateD:liq $3770 < $10000 | h1 | -3.3% | -1.7% |
| 08:00 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 | h1 | -85.3% | -56.6% |
| 08:00 | QFMM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:45 | REMEMBER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -26.3% | -24.7% |
| 07:45 | PAINT | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | h1 | -75.1% | -50.1% |
| 07:45 | BISCOTTI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +2.4% | +1.2% |
| 07:30 | STBL | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:30 | AP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -3.3% | -1.8% |
| 07:30 | ARTON | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -11.9% | -8.4% |
| 07:30 | WHEEL | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | h1 | +14.5% | +8.5% |
| 07:15 | PARABOLA | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | h1 | -41.3% | -29.8% |
| 07:15 | FYNNEL | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 | EQUITY | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 | h1 | +21.4% | +14.0% |
| 07:00 | COMOTITTIES | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -81.3% | -56.0% |
| 07:00 | neuron | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +5.9% | -100.0% |
| 07:00 | TULIP | gateD:liq $4963 < $10000 | h1 | -51.4% | -30.3% |
| 07:00 | PARABOLA | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 | h1 | -78.7% | -52.0% |
| 07:00 | STOCKSS | gateD:vol5 $3124 < $5000 | h1 | -1.9% | -1.1% |
| 06:45 | CAPITALCAT | gateD:liq $8406 < $10000 | h1 | -67.5% | -43.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)