Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 21:30 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$172.13
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
6
2 won · 1 open
Per trade
-$28.69
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
12.5h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 25s ago ok
Socket events 18,481 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 6,280 rpc · 1,818 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

13,470
launches seen
365
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
67
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
7
opened

Refused: gate B 13,031 · gate D 291 · filter C 60 · vetoed 1 · size-ups 4 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2162-$172.13-$28.69
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (1)

openedtokensetentrymarknowpeakleftrealizedwhy admitted
21:21SXY 0x8998…58f2Gold v2$1000.000051561.03x1.20x100%$0.00B:115 buyers · D:liq $17774 vol5 $24655 b/s 1.51 · C:allowlist · size-up:134 distinct buyers in 30m

Closed trades (6)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
21:1521:19Crumbs 0x4228…83f6Gold v210.4m4m1.00xstop-$100.30-100.3%B:153 buyers · D:liq $63756 vol5 $25868 b/s 1.93 · C:allowlist · size-up:154 distinct buyers in 30m
20:3020:35BERRY 0x643c…5c7dGold v211.5m5m1.00xstop-$31.13-62.3%B:40 buyers · D:liq $23287 vol5 $12654 b/s 1.77 · C:allowlist · single ticket
19:0420:34CANAL 0xb796…aec8Gold v211.1m90m1.73xmax_hold$16.03+32.1%B:72 buyers · D:liq $33980 vol5 $5462 b/s 2.64 · C:allowlist · single ticket
17:3619:06JOMO 0xf238…1c91Gold v212m90m1.06xmax_hold-$12.66-25.3%B:34 buyers · D:liq $17299 vol5 $5055 b/s 2.71 · C:allowlist · single ticket
12:4613:05USDUG 0xdd43…eb85Gold v213.7m20m1.90xtrail$15.52+15.5%B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m
11:0911:11SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8dGold v211.5m3m1.00xstop-$59.59-59.6%B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set640not yet
Running days0.525not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$172.13> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%33%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 470 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
21:282Z 0xc482…d5abuniswap-v4-launchpad58$45,489$24,4581.77filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:27WORKS 0xf9dc…7c7buniswap-v4-launchpad20$26,735$8,6582.75filterC:sellSimStale
21:27SPROUTS 0xbb2e…d001uniswap-v4-launchpad26$4,260$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:25VEEFO 0xc040…eba3uniswap-v4-launchpad61$5,043$25gateD:liq $5043 < $10000
21:21SXY 0x8998…58f2uniswap-v4-launchpad115$17,774$24,6551.51ADMITTED
21:21AI 0x6f26…8e38uniswap-v4-launchpad113$1,405$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:21DUST 0x0ff5…c011uniswap-v4-launchpad102$4,877$210.67gateD:liq $4877 < $10000
21:19RHD 0xe24e…48f4uniswap-v4-launchpad438$5,726$1,3760.70gateD:liq $5726 < $10000
21:19RHD 0x00ca…f8a2uniswap-v4-launchpad125$4,358$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:19GPUs 0xdd21…4b7duniswap-v4-launchpad24$1,543$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:15Crumbs 0x4228…83f6uniswap-v4-launchpad153$63,756$25,8681.93ADMITTED
21:12STONK 0x9984…778duniswap-v4-launchpad141$5,972$2670.00gateD:liq $5972 < $10000
21:11Gauntlet 0xf4e6…df8auniswap-v4-launchpad122$5,085$350.00gateD:liq $5085 < $10000
21:06FUNDS 0x018b…bd9euniswap-v4-launchpad52$4,770$31.00gateD:liq $4770 < $10000
21:03SWEEP 0x9f1c…9febuniswap-v4-launchpad226$5,777$7520.25gateD:liq $5777 < $10000
21:01AMERICA 0xfbd8…8adcuniswap-v4-launchpad282$6,950$1,7860.65gateD:liq $6950 < $10000
20:58SA 0xa7c3…b5aauniswap-v4-launchpad236$5,679$5,6520.57gateD:liq $5679 < $10000
20:58dividends 0x8af2…3b5auniswap-v4-launchpad62$16,774$6,0812.22filterC:sellSim
20:55S&P500 0x05ec…0413uniswap-v4-launchpad206$5,413$3,0620.37gateD:liq $5413 < $10000
20:52VIBECAT 0x167e…f296uniswap-v4-launchpad51$23,056$14,2511.36gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5
20:51DFC 0xbca7…94f0uniswap-v4-launchpad65$48,130$25,2271.68filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:50ZDOG 0x37e9…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad32$19,866$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:44SPECS 0x2536…72acuniswap-v4-launchpad455$7,693$13,6880.56gateD:liq $7693 < $10000
20:37XMRCAT 0xdc2a…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad40$22,872$370.00gateD:vol5 $37 < $5000
20:31BURISMA 0xb29c…fb22uniswap-v4-launchpad38$13,478$2,4840.82gateD:vol5 $2484 < $5000
20:30BERRY 0x643c…5c7duniswap-v4-launchpad40$23,287$12,6541.77ADMITTED
20:30HOODINU 0xcf5a…cb57uniswap-v4-launchpad25$32,550$28,6590.76gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5
20:30ROBI NHOOD 0x655b…16a4uniswap-v4-launchpad257$7,003$1,9220.74gateD:liq $7003 < $10000
20:27KOL 0x13ca…8d3funiswap-v4-launchpad82$21,541$7,6850.66gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5
20:25VEEF 0x2ed7…eba3uniswap-v4-launchpad177$0$840.00gateD:liq $0 < $10000
20:24PONSPULSE 0x7e79…4a3auniswap-v4-launchpad34$63,138$15,5481.86filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:24CONSOLE 0x1ab0…b73funiswap-v4-launchpad21$20,234$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
20:24astro 0xdc54…13a7uniswap-v4-launchpad115$38,420$48,9701.18gateD:buy/sell 1.18 < 1.5
20:21BALL 0xbeeb…b0b5uniswap-v4-launchpad66$15,127$5,8380.23gateD:buy/sell 0.23 < 1.5
20:21TRACTION 0xcbb4…ea86uniswap-v4-launchpad56$34,652$75,7011.56filterC:sellSimStale
20:20TRILLIONS 0xb115…17efuniswap-v4-launchpad799$26,462$18,4251.30gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5
20:15HST 0x68b9…9e3cuniswap-v4-launchpad90$5,232$9340.54gateD:liq $5232 < $10000
20:14TRILLIONS 0x84b0…fb24uniswap-v4-launchpad151$62,722$12,6581.81filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:13PUNT 0x2714…56a8uniswap-v4-launchpad52$25,096$19,8522.27filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
20:12Trends 0x4d8c…21f4uniswap-v4-launchpad57$54,848$19,2691.88filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool100
gateD:features58
gateD:liq49
C:notV2VsWeth47
C:creatorShareUnknown47
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager46
gateD:buy/sell38
C:swapsH1<25031
gateD:poolMismatch24
gateD:vol522
C:sellSimStale8
C:sellSim5
C:copycat3
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1
veto:+5m zero sells1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

417 refusals checked at +1h so far. 31 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD334-12.1%13
filterC82+90.3%18
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
21:15DOGEHOUSEgateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5d1-86.2%-66.8%
21:15SNOWCOINgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
21:15astrogateD:buy/sell 0.57 < 1.5h1-70.4%-45.8%
21:15AWSTRONAUGHTgateD:liq $6490 < $10000h1-11.0%-6.0%
21:15ASTROgateD:vol5 $494 < $5000h1-6.3%-5.8%
21:15HAVOCgateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5h1-93.0%-73.5%
21:15astrogateD:buy/sell 0.95 < 1.5h1-81.7%-57.4%
21:15astro+5m honeypot veto: 46 buys and 0 sellsh10.0%0.0%
21:15astrogateD:buy/sell 1.32 < 1.5h1+30.3%+19.6%
21:15TOPBLASTfilterC:sellSimStaleh1+5842.1%+669.5%
21:15PONSHIMIgateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5h1-92.1%-71.9%
21:15TrendsfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+91.6%+55.7%
21:15PUNTfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-49.8%-33.5%
21:15TRILLIONSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+33.3%+21.6%
21:00GunfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-29.0%-20.7%
21:00LUPOgateD:liq $5066 < $10000d1-22.2%-11.8%
21:00BIDENgateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5d1-78.7%-60.9%
21:00NVDAgateD:buy/sell 0.78 < 1.5d1-2.6%+5.9%
21:00USDGgateD:buy/sell 0.57 < 1.5d1+0.0%-10.8%
21:00PIGGYBANKgateD:liq $5965 < $10000d1-49.7%-29.1%
21:00DJTgateD:vol5 $3114 < $5000d1+2.3%-53.3%
21:00CRACKgateD:liq $7099 < $10000d1-29.2%-24.6%
21:00TIMESgateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5h1-89.8%-68.2%
21:00NFSgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
21:00OLLIEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
21:00FLOWgateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5h1-84.8%-61.0%
21:00TENgateD:vol5 $2391 < $5000h1-84.2%-60.2%
21:00APgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-44.3%-25.4%
21:00007gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
21:00ROBSTRgateD:liq $8666 < $10000h1-65.3%-41.2%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)