Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 05:40 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$117.94
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
5
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$23.59
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
3.9h
since 08 Sept, 01:43 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 11s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 12s ago ok
Socket events 7,070 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,895 rpc · 575 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

4,333
launches seen
200
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
17
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
5
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
5
opened

Refused: gate B 3,926 · gate D 175 · filter C 12 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2051-$117.94-$23.59
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (5)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
04:5005:37RVA 0x3d94…5b6dGold v211m48m1.25xstop-$25.58-51.2%B:49 buyers · D:liq $16976 vol5 $7952 b/s 1.65 · C:allowlist · single ticket
04:2004:23WWW 0x3a0e…ecf4Gold v210.1m3m1.00xstop-$25.58-51.2%B:33 buyers · D:liq $19090 vol5 $26407 b/s 1.62 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:1303:23SWEEP 0x73f6…aed8Gold v211.5m70m1.67xtrail$9.08+9.1%B:154 buyers · D:liq $14665 vol5 $9554 b/s 1.61 · C:allowlist · size-up:156 distinct buyers in 30m
03:0503:10Spyder 0x5f67…975cGold v210.1m5m1.12xstop-$25.58-51.2%B:28 buyers · D:liq $18500 vol5 $28097 b/s 1.56 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:1002:13UNITY 0x1fc0…fa41Gold v214.4m2m1.00xstop-$50.28-50.3%B:491 buyers · D:liq $14171 vol5 $13491 b/s 1.79 · C:allowlist · size-up:501 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set540not yet
Running days0.165not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$117.94> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%20%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 180 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
05:35ANYTHINGPAD 0x7fdc…737duniswap-v4-launchpad38$35,667$58,1831.05gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:35Layers 0x02a3…b8c3uniswap-v4-launchpad239$24,951$24,5640.61gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5
05:31SOYJAK 0x9b99…368cuniswap-v4-launchpad33$3,878$2,1611.14gateD:liq $3878 < $10000
05:31CAPITALCAT 0x0521…75c8uniswap-v4-launchpad222$10,360$4870.63gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:30CAPITALCAT 0xb1c4…10fcpons-v224$8,406$8,4071.01gateD:liq $8406 < $10000
05:29LIENSTRATEGY 0x91cf…e56buniswap-v4-launchpad88$83,640$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:29unc 0x3fcf…7f85pons-v254$8$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:16Stockcat 0xe9ca…d64cpons-v273$6,095$3690.17gateD:liq $6095 < $10000
05:13FREAK 0x42f2…545auniswap-v4-launchpad82$59,805$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:11SHEEP 0x464b…3043pons-v243$12,700$14,0351.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
05:11ECHELON 0x87f1…b326uniswap-v4-launchpad28$14,030$1,1960.80gateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000
05:10KEY 0x1f40…a201uniswap-v4-launchpad35$4,132$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
05:06HOUSE 0x0476…f1c9pons-v242$5,656$256gateD:liq $5656 < $10000
05:02WONKA 0x6157…46b7pons-v241$17,210$5,2731.89filterC:sellSimStale
05:01KERVON 0x7073…15f7pons-v247$3,992$1430.06gateD:liq $3992 < $10000
04:57FREAK 0xe3c2…3d02uniswap-v4-launchpad42$23,779$9,3542.52filterC:sellSimStale
04:57SXY 0x1a70…43afpons-v250$6,564$11,2010.69gateD:liq $6564 < $10000
04:56MILKERS 0x18f9…e8cfuniswap-v4-launchpad66$5,215$21,1061.02gateD:liq $5215 < $10000
04:53BITCORN 0x3a48…c7c4uniswap-v4-launchpad27$5,601$28,0631.22gateD:liq $5601 < $10000
04:50RVA 0x3d94…5b6duniswap-v4-launchpad49$16,976$7,9521.65ADMITTED
04:45🅿️ 0xe1e5…cc2duniswap-v4-launchpad42$104,661$12,6261.41gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:44HOODCAT 0x2539…88dapons-v238$23,163$37,6021.43gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5
04:43PUMP 0xc15b…b9aauniswap-v4-launchpad28$729$2,0760.74gateD:liq $729 < $10000
04:39AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9uniswap-v4-launchpad32$257,864$5,4170.58gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:38Kira 0xc4d7…9c78pons-v262$9,498$19,4240.81gateD:liq $9498 < $10000
04:36CME 0x9591…28abuniswap-v4-launchpad61$47,600$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:34Kira 0x18f9…a7e5uniswap-v4-launchpad189$91,239$37,1061.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
04:29FUDZ 0x694a…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad167$27,617$10,9421.40gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5
04:23Prometheus 0xfe9f…6783pons-v222$6,052$1,5610.75gateD:liq $6052 < $10000
04:22Prometheus 0x87e7…0f27uniswap-v4-launchpad29$3,886$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:22MOO 0xd9db…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad20$1,984,023$37,4010.53gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:21Prometheus 0xb931…49b4pons-v225$4,369$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:20WWW 0x3a0e…ecf4pons-v233$19,090$26,4071.62ADMITTED
04:19Prometheus 0x914f…2f94pons-v244$15,730$29,8061.46gateD:buy/sell 1.46 < 1.5
04:10GOAT 0xa79b…fd65pons-v249$9,604$15,8960.81gateD:liq $9604 < $10000
04:01BUILDR 0x22ea…22c6uniswap-v4-launchpad159$24,565$14,1230.91gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5
04:00FLYBRAIN 0xe4fd…964buniswap-v4-launchpad174$85,003$21,7282.23filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
03:54USDG 0x5fc5…d168uniswap-v4-launchpad94$1,247,396$72,6120.89gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
03:52COMPUTE 0xd392…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad43$42,494$5760.17gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
03:51SECURTITTIES 0xb10f…57b0uniswap-v4-launchpad200$73,085$16,3640.70gateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool87
gateD:poolMismatch27
gateD:liq27
gateD:features21
gateD:buy/sell9
C:notV2VsWeth7
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager7
C:creatorShareUnknown7
gateD:vol54
C:swapsH1<2504
C:sellSimStale3
C:sellSim2
C:copycat1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

142 refusals checked at +1h so far. 9 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD124-10.0%4
filterC18+18.5%5
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
05:30PrometheusgateD:buy/sell 1.46 < 1.5h1-85.2%-61.5%
05:30PrometheusgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-11.2%-5.8%
05:30MOOgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-13.3%-7.4%
05:30PrometheusgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%-0.0%
05:30PrometheusgateD:liq $6052 < $10000h1-21.9%-11.7%
05:30FUDZgateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5h1-11.5%-10.4%
05:15BUILDRgateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5h1-27.3%-14.7%
05:15GOATgateD:liq $9604 < $10000h1-48.8%-28.5%
05:15FLYBRAINfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-79.4%-70.6%
05:00SECURTITTIESgateD:vol5 $507 < $5000h1-0.7%-0.7%
05:00SECURTITTIESgateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5h10.0%0.0%
05:00COMPUTEgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+15.5%+15.5%
05:00USDGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.1%-0.6%
05:00SECURTITIESgateD:liq $6702 < $10000h1+18.1%+8.4%
05:00WOLFgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-11.2%-10.4%
05:00COMPUTECOINgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-1.2%-1.1%
04:45COMPUTEgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-7.7%-5.5%
04:30AQUgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+4.5%+2.5%
04:30EQUITYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-29.5%-15.8%
04:30ZCATgateD:liq $6032 < $10000h1-32.5%-25.1%
04:30POOPCOINgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
04:30ZCATgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
04:30SHOPIFYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+4.5%+3.0%
04:30FIREgateD:liq $6207 < $10000h1-25.4%-14.1%
04:30ZDOGgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
04:30NASTYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-12.4%-10.0%
04:30PANEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
04:15PANEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
04:15SUPERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
04:15SHOPIFYfilterC:sellSimStaleh1-87.1%-65.5%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)