Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 19:24 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$3.27
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$1.09
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
20.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 24,600 · failsafes 9 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 9,594 rpc · 2,838 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
16,147
launches seen
→
501
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
71
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
3
opened
Refused: gate B 15,552 · gate D 423 · filter C 68 · vetoed 2 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -$3.27 | -$1.09 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (3)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:51 | 18:59 | FARMINGCROPNFT 0xa6f1…175b | Gold v2 | 14.8m | 8m | 1.00x | confirm_bail | -$61.68 | -61.7% | B:505 buyers · D:liq $35396 vol5 $45498 b/s 1.91 · C:allowlist · size-up:557 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 16:20 | 16:39 | ANY 0x2d51…b963 | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 19m | 5.44x | trail | $52.27 | +104.5% | B:33 buyers · D:liq $14822 vol5 $15894 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 3 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.87 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$3.27 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 67% | 50 to 73% | met |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1212 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:16 | EVERYTHING 0x23b6…a246 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 403 | $10,186 | $12,598 | 0.57 | gateD:buy/sell 0.57 < 1.5 |
| 19:14 | EVERYTHING 0xabda…b22f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $22,176 | $90,031 | 1.61 | filterC:sellSim |
| 19:12 | EVERYTHING 0xa026…0605 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 160 | $85,402 | $32,603 | 1.59 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:12 | STOCKNITE 0x50dc…104d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $21,031 | $42,184 | 1.14 | gateD:buy/sell 1.14 < 1.5 |
| 19:11 | KIRKINATORX 0x040d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 263 | $100,173 | $43,016 | 0.81 | gateD:buy/sell 0.81 < 1.5 |
| 19:09 | BUSTED 0x2e97…8b4e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 127 | $18,067 | $13,122 | 0.95 | gateD:buy/sell 0.95 < 1.5 |
| 19:06 | CAT 0xee04…4d11 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $20,183 | $21,145 | 1.98 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,ownerEoa,selectors:mint,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:03 | POOLED 0x2c52…4288 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 69 | $35,373 | $48,618 | 1.40 | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 |
| 18:59 | DOK 0xcc5f…83ab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $9,058 | $969 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $9058 < $10000 |
| 18:59 | NVDA 0xf533…410e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 75 | $29,269 | $131,642 | 1.36 | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 |
| 18:55 | THWAY 0xc200…06be | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 71 | $17,057 | $21,202 | 1.63 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 18:51 | FARMINGCROPNFT 0xa6f1…175b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 505 | $35,396 | $45,498 | 1.91 | ADMITTED |
| 18:50 | FARMINGCROPNFT 0x977a…fe3b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 120 | $72,790 | $40,818 | 2.08 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:50 | MARIO 0xa379…b1ae | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1191 | $40,453 | $262,893 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 18:47 | PEG 0x8d17…7b8d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $6,506 | $2 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $6506 < $10000 |
| 18:47 | PEG 0x3d1f…d5f3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 123 | $4,831 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:46 | Lasso 0x021a…4612 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 312 | $79,755 | $25,381 | 1.77 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:46 | Burst 0x4b2d…7a1c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $35,702 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:46 | PEG 0x51c5…51ce | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 204 | $7,446 | $444 | 2.50 | gateD:liq $7446 < $10000 |
| 18:43 | ASTROID 0xb01d…2e7a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $5,958 | $131 | 0.33 | gateD:liq $5958 < $10000 |
| 18:40 | Neil 0x1c24…e049 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 560 | $9,474 | $687 | 0.91 | gateD:liq $9474 < $10000 |
| 18:36 | MONG 0x928a…284d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 131 | $78,817 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:30 | ROBINCOIN 0x6110…56a2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 157 | $108,429 | $56,846 | 1.39 | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 |
| 18:30 | LLMAI 0x9f89…00be | pons-v2 | 29 | $8,487 | $5,069 | 0.66 | gateD:liq $8487 < $10000 |
| 18:25 | MONG 0x0c97…805c | pons-v2 | 32 | $29,377 | $197,719 | 1.04 | gateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5 |
| 18:24 | LLMAI 0xa4fd…f419 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 264 | $66,321 | $5,672 | 2.40 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:18 | milo 0xa0f9…9582 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $56,875 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:14 | Burst 0x38dc…5693 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 167 | $73,529 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:13 | GAIA 0xb74f…7ce6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 175 | $239,169 | $43,119 | 1.19 | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 |
| 18:11 | V4 0xc60b…b006 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $143,361 | $8,621 | 0.67 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 18:06 | RobinCoin 0xda67…f923 | pons-v2 | 73 | $17,237 | $15,712 | 1.37 | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 |
| 18:05 | Burst 0x5a89…1f73 | pons-v2 | 80 | $1 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:04 | EXP 0x8c03…9b80 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:56 | ROOT 0xa50a…2754 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:53 | IOU-NOTHING 0xcc0c…7d0f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 232 | $66,723 | $11,460 | 1.03 | gateD:buy/sell 1.03 < 1.5 |
| 17:50 | MARIO 0x8005…e49f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $46,862 | $15,249 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:50 | FABLE 0xca4c…bbbb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $10,217 | $55 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $55 < $5000 |
| 17:45 | IOU-NOTHING 0x6f38…53f4 | pons-v2 | 37 | $20,290 | $98,929 | 1.04 | gateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5 |
| 17:43 | IOU-NOTHING 0xaab7…8ce4 | pons-v2 | 37 | $13,006 | $82,035 | 1.06 | gateD:buy/sell 1.06 < 1.5 |
| 17:36 | FNC 0x6129…3894 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $79,148 | $15,837 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 244 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 60 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 60 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 56 |
| gateD:features | 47 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 44 |
| gateD:liq | 43 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 39 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 32 |
| gateD:vol5 | 13 |
| C:sellSimStale | 6 |
| C:copycat | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 5 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 4 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 2 |
| C:ownerEoa | 2 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
| C:selectors:mint | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1123 refusals checked at +1h so far. 103 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 886 | -9.3% | 40 |
| filterC | 234 | +62.2% | 63 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:15 | DATADOG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | SuperOctopus420 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | Asset | gateD:liq $6848 < $10000 | d1 | -46.0% | -26.6% |
| 19:15 | MSFT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.0% | +17.9% |
| 19:15 | GIGGLES | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -11.3% | -9.9% |
| 19:15 | pdom | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | Asset | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | Asset | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | PICKLES | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -37.0% | -100.0% |
| 19:15 | DEFLY | gateD:liq $5929 < $10000 | d1 | -53.4% | -31.8% |
| 19:15 | QI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -6.4% | -4.7% |
| 19:15 | EXP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 19:15 | Burst | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +216.6% | +1940035.6% |
| 19:15 | RobinCoin | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 | h1 | -90.7% | -69.5% |
| 19:15 | V4 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -15.0% | -8.0% |
| 19:15 | GAIA | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 | h1 | -84.4% | -66.5% |
| 19:15 | Burst | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:00 | RAMCOlN | gateD:vol5 $5 < $5000 | d1 | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 19:00 | Arc | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +7.2% | +5.0% |
| 19:00 | IOU-NOTHING | gateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5 | h1 | +61.9% | +27.2% |
| 19:00 | FABLE | gateD:vol5 $55 < $5000 | h1 | -1.0% | -0.9% |
| 19:00 | MARIO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +131.0% | +79.1% |
| 19:00 | IOU-NOTHING | gateD:buy/sell 1.03 < 1.5 | h1 | +7.3% | +4.9% |
| 19:00 | ROOT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 18:45 | CEREBRO | gateD:vol5 $674 < $5000 | d1 | -3.0% | -1.0% |
| 18:45 | LOXLEY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 18:45 | DLPH | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 18:45 | PLOG | gateD:liq $6762 < $10000 | d1 | -61.0% | -37.5% |
| 18:45 | INFR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 18:45 | VLAD | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +85.2% | +46.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)