Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 11:42 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$59.59
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$59.59
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
2.7h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 1s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 2s ago ok
Socket events 2,821 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,339 rpc · 371 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
2,048
launches seen
→
58
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
12
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 1,746 · gate D 39 · filter C 11 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -$59.59 | -$59.59 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:09 | 11:11 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$59.59 | -59.6% | B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.11 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$59.59 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 0% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 248 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:33 | FloorPad 0x7915…00c9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 120 | $58,514 | $30,158 | 1.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:31 | FAT 0xae4a…46a8 | pons-v2 | 29 | $38,340 | $126,354 | 0.80 | gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5 |
| 11:31 | FAT 0x8674…7015 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 170 | $111,208 | $78,579 | 3.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:29 | HEDGE 0x48dc…2bd9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $59,279 | $3,684 | 0.73 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:28 | ROCK 0x47b8…ffad | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:23 | OTC 0x9a88…37eb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 112 | $24,919 | $18,388 | 1.74 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:20 | Quiver 0xbcad…cecb | pons-v2 | 54 | $2 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:13 | MEMORY 0x778c…7001 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $16,531 | $1,463 | 1.20 | gateD:vol5 $1463 < $5000 |
| 11:10 | FloorPad 0xc1e8…ae03 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $21,511 | $19,450 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 11:09 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 159 | $12,580 | $11,160 | 1.54 | ADMITTED |
| 11:07 | Scarce 0x87ee…b213 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $42,179 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:04 | Scarce 0x7aa6…d3e9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 138 | $118,649 | $86,541 | 2.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:59 | memory 0xacec…5f01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 76 | $4,948 | $1,644 | 0.08 | gateD:liq $4948 < $10000 |
| 10:56 | PTP 0xfcc7…eed8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 189 | $65,269 | $42,485 | 1.58 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:56 | PTP 0x6626…7431 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $43,483 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:51 | REJECTED 0x1649…3f65 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $4,018 | $544 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4018 < $10000 |
| 10:51 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 92 | $1,273,667 | $24,775 | 0.92 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:48 | Scarce 0xe890…de83 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $42,943 | $21,464 | 2.02 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 10:47 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $6,829,193 | $79,461 | 0.85 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:43 | OTTI 0xa355…8081 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $67,714 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:42 | RPG 0x4927…f560 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $71,443 | $2,486 | 0.52 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:42 | AI 0x2e8c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $5,560,536 | $5,488 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:38 | OTTI 0x0d8d…745a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 210 | $81,359 | $48,729 | 1.84 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:33 | HEIST 0x08a6…dab2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $14,750 | $3,079 | 0.50 | gateD:vol5 $3079 < $5000 |
| 10:33 | NAVIERSTOKES 0x3b16…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $41,796 | $2,687 | 0.67 | gateD:vol5 $2687 < $5000 |
| 10:25 | ⅄ 0x9367…bb81 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $43,160 | $7,605 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:24 | Navier 0xca48…60cd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $94,183 | $39,043 | 1.51 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:24 | STRATTON 0xb7ea…8360 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $245,989 | $17,275 | 2.40 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:13 | BEINGS 0x136d…77ff | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $95,820 | $46,408 | 1.20 | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 |
| 09:57 | FATCAT 0x0531…093b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $21,301 | $2,338 | 2.64 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:51 | SPIKE 0x5bb8…cac8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $90,720 | $41,903 | 1.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:40 | SPIKE 0xf468…98a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $47,814 | $209,472 | 0.73 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:34 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $1,703,889 | $57,046 | 5.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:33 | O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $64,470 | $11,331 | 1.24 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:30 | LISTED 0x09c1…e115 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 09:27 | CME 0xe232…e795 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $143,209 | $6,738 | 0.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:24 | ALC 0xe95a…dbac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 158 | $47,667 | $13,574 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 08:53 | bracket 0xb415…a8dd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $81,974 | $45,818 | 1.34 | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 |
| 08:49 | bracket 0x831a…35a1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:29 | SNDKS 0x8c9d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $19,727 | $7,526 | 1.81 | filterC:sellSim |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 14 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 11 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 9 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 9 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 9 |
| gateD:features | 6 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 3 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 3 |
| gateD:vol5 | 3 |
| C:sellSimStale | 2 |
| gateD:liq | 2 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
211 refusals checked at +1h so far. 11 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 180 | -12.3% | 6 |
| filterC | 31 | +3.4% | 5 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | STRATTON | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -20.0% | -10.7% |
| 11:30 | Navier | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +17.9% | +10.9% |
| 11:30 | ⅄ | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11:15 | BEINGS | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 | h1 | -48.6% | -35.7% |
| 11:00 | SPIKE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -2.1% | -1.3% |
| 11:00 | FATCAT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -89.9% | -68.2% |
| 10:45 | LISTED | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 10:45 | O1BOT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +76.0% | +35.2% |
| 10:45 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.1% | +5.9% |
| 10:45 | SPIKE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -72.9% | -48.5% |
| 10:30 | ALC | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 | h1 | -2.7% | -2.1% |
| 10:30 | CME | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +16.2% | +8.0% |
| 10:00 | bracket | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 | h1 | -0.6% | -0.4% |
| 10:00 | bracket | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 09:30 | HTB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:30 | VEEF | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 09:30 | Chaton | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +12.6% | -100.0% |
| 09:30 | Chaton | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:30 | IQ | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 | h1 | +20.2% | +12.2% |
| 09:30 | SNDKS | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 09:15 | ORBIA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:15 | Hoody | gateD:liq $5641 < $10000 | h1 | -51.8% | -30.6% |
| 08:30 | LAUNCHPAD | gateD:liq $4795 < $10000 | h1 | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 08:15 | LIQUITITTY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +38.2% | +23.5% |
| 08:15 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08:00 | STRIKE | gateD:liq $3770 < $10000 | h1 | -3.3% | -1.7% |
| 08:00 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 | h1 | -85.3% | -56.6% |
| 08:00 | QFMM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:45 | REMEMBER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -26.3% | -24.7% |
| 07:45 | PAINT | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | h1 | -75.1% | -50.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)