Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 15:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
14.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 43s ago ok
Socket events 18,173 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 6,832 rpc · 1,908 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
11,641
launches seen
→
512
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
50
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 11,009 · gate D 460 · filter C 50 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.62 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1538 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:21 | Lie 0x7e24…69de | pons-v2 | 54 | $7,000 | $12,625 | 0.82 | gateD:liq $7000 < $10000 |
| 15:18 | FLYBRAIN 0x2bec…3ad4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $52,524 | $39,126 | 1.33 | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 |
| 15:18 | Lie 0x1d72…88e1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $72,075 | $55,392 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:12 | GASCAT 0x67f6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $29,311 | $1,633 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $1633 < $5000 |
| 15:10 | Flybook 0x4db0…da9f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $69,091 | $26,009 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:05 | Openraise 0xcf99…9cd1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $86,595 | $30,746 | 1.38 | gateD:buy/sell 1.38 < 1.5 |
| 14:47 | PENNY 0xe776…1fb2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $3,813 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:41 | Flybook 0x4630…9d80 | pons-v2 | 46 | $19,300 | $77,733 | 1.37 | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 |
| 14:40 | Flybook 0x9cab…177f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 220 | $64,554 | $12,712 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:40 | Flybook 0x5a47…d069 | pons-v2 | 68 | $11,315 | $24,028 | 0.71 | gateD:buy/sell 0.71 < 1.5 |
| 14:22 | LABRAT 0x45b9…58a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $72,657 | $44,705 | 1.66 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:06 | blue 0x59e5…230e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 149 | $98,057 | $30,840 | 2.30 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 14:06 | WORK 0x9429…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 129 | $20,812 | $270 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $270 < $5000 |
| 14:04 | Rack 0x9d56…d9d6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 81 | $61,285 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:02 | Rack 0x3051…f4d6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $45,834 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:01 | Rack 0xbc69…e9f7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:01 | CAP 0x2f21…12f3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $51,902 | $22,393 | 1.05 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 13:59 | Rack 0x8a1d…a9dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $40,648 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:53 | Rack 0x42c4…f271 | pons-v2 | 89 | $51 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:53 | Gro 0x917b…da08 | pons-v2 | 56 | $16,951 | $5,420 | 2.54 | filterC:sellSim |
| 13:43 | ELEGANS 0x0928…d350 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $66,696 | $34,198 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:32 | VALUABLE 0x3803…1788 | pons-v2 | 74 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:24 | Izzy 0x4afa…0590 | pons-v2 | 39 | $17 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:16 | Bagtone 0x0f62…1ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $9,186 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:05 | blue 0xa8c2…5f38 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 93 | $76,387 | $30,504 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 12:53 | PPILOT 0xf292…2b8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $70,631 | $34,166 | 1.53 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:39 | LIQ 0x29a9…7a80 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $22,518 | $29,718 | 1.57 | filterC:sellSim |
| 12:33 | QUORUM 0xc1db…bd8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $68,702 | $57,027 | 1.71 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:58 | TIDE 0xcbb0…4e9b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 77 | $47,790 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:46 | JETS 0xa011…9b9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $81,607 | $10,955 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:44 | Sprout 0x0d19…7f48 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $27,788 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:43 | SPOONBOT 0x45e4…8311 | pons-v2 | 55 | $7 | $10 | gateD:liq $7 < $10000 | |
| 11:36 | HASHTOWN 0xbe00…ce11 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 124 | $77,792 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:13 | EMILE 0x80fe…c8fa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 122 | $62,737 | $20,272 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:05 | AGI 0xf793…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 378 | $3,366 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:03 | Bullions 0x108c…c265 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $19,615 | $2,561 | 1.56 | gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000 |
| 11:02 | AGI 0xa058…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $3,275 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:02 | ei 0x2634…5aca | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 98 | $73,256 | $8,752 | 1.82 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:01 | FLLY 0x1f7f…1c01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $4,734 | $602 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4734 < $10000 |
| 10:59 | INU 0x8202…8ae6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 351 | $78,412 | $20,715 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 248 |
| gateD:features | 63 |
| gateD:liq | 48 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 45 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 37 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 37 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 35 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 34 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 28 |
| gateD:vol5 | 17 |
| C:sellSim | 13 |
| missed the window | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1460 refusals checked at +1h so far. 133 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1160 | -8.4% | 59 |
| filterC | 297 | +50.6% | 74 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15 | ZenoCoin | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 | d1 | -82.3% | -58.5% |
| 15:15 | OUTLAW | gateD:vol5 $229 < $5000 | d1 | -58.8% | -47.6% |
| 15:15 | CAP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -67.5% | -43.0% |
| 15:15 | Rack | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 15:15 | Rack | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15:15 | Rack | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15:15 | WORK | gateD:vol5 $270 < $5000 | h1 | +4.7% | +4.5% |
| 15:15 | blue | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -3.5% | -2.3% |
| 15:15 | NANNA | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 | d1 | -32.5% | -30.2% |
| 15:15 | TNTR | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +195.3% | +101.8% |
| 15:00 | MANATEE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +146.7% | +94.9% |
| 15:00 | Gro | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -93.7% | -74.9% |
| 15:00 | Rack | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -46.9% | -98.0% |
| 15:00 | Rack | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:45 | Cashcat | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -82.7% | -74.1% |
| 14:45 | Vlad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:45 | Elon | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -6.6% | -4.0% |
| 14:45 | Elon | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +14.4% | +7.5% |
| 14:45 | VALUABLE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:45 | ELEGANS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +4.2% | +2.8% |
| 14:45 | OZZY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +103.7% | +61.3% |
| 14:30 | Nemotron | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:30 | XCOINS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:30 | ECHORA | gateD:liq $7076 < $10000 | d1 | -64.2% | -40.9% |
| 14:30 | Nemotron | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:30 | WINTERNUKE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 14:30 | WINTERNUKE | gateD:vol5 $3873 < $5000 | d1 | -84.2% | -60.6% |
| 14:30 | Bagtone | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| 14:30 | Izzy | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -12.9% | -6.8% |
| 14:15 | Beast | gateD:liq $6365 < $10000 | d1 | -63.8% | -40.2% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)