Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 01:36 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$50.28
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$50.28
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.4h
since 08 Sept, 01:10 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 24s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 25s ago ok
Socket events 906 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 191 rpc · 46 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
635
launches seen
→
33
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
2
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 215 · gate D 16 · filter C 1 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -$50.28 | -$50.28 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:22 | 01:27 | Organic 0x1ddf…fe67 | Gold v2 | 10.4m | 6m | 1.06x | stop | -$50.28 | -50.3% | B:116 buyers · D:liq $10044 vol5 $8801 b/s 3.02 · C:allowlist · size-up:120 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.02 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$50.28 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 0% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 73 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:35 | LAPTOP 0x76ed…0b7f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $149,148 | $26,042 | 1.44 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:33 | Jeff 0x2835…5686 | pons-v2 | 90 | $24,758 | $146,075 | 1.31 | gateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5 |
| 01:33 | MARLIN 0xab35…4723 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 112 | $70,971 | $108,689 | 1.59 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:31 | AIX 0x32a3…784d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $32,862 | $1,401 | 0.70 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:28 | LIGER 0x54e8…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 224 | $23,408 | $210 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $210 < $5000 |
| 01:27 | Kimchi 0xd8a3…6c57 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $10,467 | $703 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:27 | Musk 0xd5c9…0883 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $54,093 | $18,148 | 1.70 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:27 | CSM 0xdc0b…319a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $27,742 | $5,684 | 1.20 | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 |
| 01:26 | PINK 0xbc9c…14ce | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 185 | $135,546 | $621,571 | 1.12 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:26 | KIMCHICOIN 0x362d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $23,304 | $465 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:25 | BYCOCKET 0x1737…4d3b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $16,779 | $11,492 | 0.72 | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 |
| 01:22 | LIGER 0xfe7c…2430 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 119 | $13,488 | $6,689 | 1.58 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,copycat,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:22 | Organic 0x1ddf…fe67 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $10,044 | $8,801 | 3.02 | ADMITTED |
| 23:50 | MAYE 0x23a0…cc80 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 177 | $14,807 | $1,932 | 0.90 | gateD:vol5 $1932 < $5000 |
| 23:50 | G$ 0xcdb4…d8db | pons-v2 | 35 | $8,131 | $1,898 | 0.48 | gateD:liq $8131 < $10000 |
| 23:50 | organic 0x3e6d…ac83 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $5,004 | $150 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $5004 < $10000 |
| 23:45 | LUCKY 0x1a7e…0922 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $74,469 | $371,540 | 1.60 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 22:31 | LUNA9 0x9663…f264 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $45,201 | $27,645 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:21 | PONSPOT 0x42cf…2b1d | pons-v2 | 42 | $14,729 | $17,665 | 1.58 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 22:17 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $6,906,077 | $66,200 | 0.67 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:10 | Hound 0x7efa…2e19 | pons-v2 | 35 | $18,287 | $23,600 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 22:09 | CGPT 0x0042…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $25,975 | $151 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $151 < $5000 |
| 22:09 | Hound 0x12c2…eaab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 95 | $102,686 | $22,450 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:07 | POOL 0x92ba…a169 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 118 | $33,729 | $2,414 | 1.50 | gateD:vol5 $2414 < $5000 |
| 22:04 | AMZN 0x12f1…bf54 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $1,148,630 | $1,371 | 0.38 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:01 | VHARD 0x51ee…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $7,576 | $1,188 | 1.83 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:00 | HOODIECOIN 0x55ae…f0ea | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $23,350 | $5,500 | 0.40 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:58 | SWAGBUCKS 0x2c8b…7933 | pons-v2 | 53 | $9,332 | $14,713 | 1.21 | gateD:liq $9332 < $10000 |
| 21:58 | POOL 0x9210…36f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $5,886 | $910 | 0.48 | gateD:liq $5886 < $10000 |
| 21:57 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $1,744,252 | $68,984 | 1.08 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:56 | boden 0x04b4…7cb8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $121,773 | $20,170 | 1.90 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:55 | ELYTRA 0x58a9…787b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 101 | $40,758 | $22,066 | 4.64 | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:54 | AIX 0x32a3…784d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 476 | $51,279 | $219,965 | 1.24 | gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5 |
| 21:54 | TESLA 0x5aa6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $20,573 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:53 | THESIS 0x5195…5356 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 124 | $40,396 | $56,143 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 21:53 | RSTR 0x78b9…025d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $109,450 | $55,538 | 0.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:52 | O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 77 | $27,084 | $39,725 | 1.45 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:52 | Lightoor 0x067d…6ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $168,775 | $73,694 | 0.70 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:32 | O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 183 | $22,179 | $27,617 | 1.75 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:31 | AMD 0x8692…3fdc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $680,637 | $6,504 | 1.51 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| gateD:poolMismatch | 7 |
| no priced pool | 5 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 3 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 1 |
| gateD:vol5 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
54 refusals checked at +1h so far. 4 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 46 | -21.2% | 1 |
| filterC | 8 | +61.5% | 3 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | LUCKY | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -3.0% | -1.4% |
| 01:00 | organic | gateD:liq $5004 < $10000 | h1 | -9.4% | -4.8% |
| 01:00 | MAYE | gateD:vol5 $1932 < $5000 | h1 | -33.8% | -18.7% |
| 01:00 | G$ | gateD:liq $8131 < $10000 | h1 | -61.3% | -37.8% |
| 23:45 | LUNA9 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -14.2% | -7.4% |
| 23:30 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 23:30 | PONSPOT | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 23:15 | HOODIECOIN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -55.5% | -33.3% |
| 23:15 | VHARD | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -52.1% | -35.3% |
| 23:15 | AMZN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.0% | +0.0% |
| 23:15 | POOL | gateD:vol5 $2414 < $5000 | h1 | -94.8% | -86.4% |
| 23:15 | Hound | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -11.4% | -7.2% |
| 23:15 | CGPT | gateD:vol5 $151 < $5000 | h1 | -21.8% | -20.5% |
| 23:15 | Hound | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | h1 | +53.7% | +24.0% |
| 23:00 | O1BOT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -35.6% | -22.7% |
| 23:00 | Lightoor | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -57.8% | -40.7% |
| 23:00 | RSTR | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +23.2% | +11.1% |
| 23:00 | THESIS | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 | h1 | -35.0% | -19.3% |
| 23:00 | AIX | gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5 | h1 | -16.8% | -8.7% |
| 23:00 | TESLA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:00 | ELYTRA | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +279.7% | +106.6% |
| 23:00 | boden | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -25.6% | -16.5% |
| 23:00 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.1% | +1.4% |
| 23:00 | SWAGBUCKS | gateD:liq $9332 < $10000 | h1 | -39.4% | -22.2% |
| 23:00 | POOL | gateD:liq $5886 < $10000 | h1 | -22.6% | -20.2% |
| 22:45 | rCat | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:45 | AMD | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:45 | O1BOT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:30 | YARD | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 22:30 | VEYRA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +0.3% | +0.3% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)