Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 13:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$44.07
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.04
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
4.4h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 6s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 4,412 · failsafes 2 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,217 rpc · 651 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
3,187
launches seen
→
102
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
17
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
2
opened
Refused: gate B 2,894 · gate D 83 · filter C 15 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -$44.07 | -$22.04 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (2)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:46 | 13:05 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | Gold v2 | 13.7m | 20m | 1.90x | trail | $15.52 | +15.5% | B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:09 | 11:11 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$59.59 | -59.6% | B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 2 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.18 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$44.07 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 50% | 50 to 73% | met |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 276 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:20 | Sirius 0x540e…95e0 | pons-v2 | 52 | $6,444 | $16,629 | 0.64 | gateD:liq $6444 < $10000 |
| 13:08 | VENN 0xe3f5…f389 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $32,440 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:07 | VENN 0xc1f3…ac31 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $28,157 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:02 | VENN 0x0a6e…a9de | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $36,959 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:58 | MONI 0x612e…e8e6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $4,108 | $1,861 | 0.35 | gateD:liq $4108 < $10000 |
| 12:57 | RELL 0x9945…be96 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 77 | $21,901 | $4,512 | 7.67 | gateD:vol5 $4512 < $5000 |
| 12:52 | RECOVER 0xfcbe…7a6a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 312 | $12,825 | $2,990 | 2.33 | gateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000 |
| 12:51 | SGOV 0x92fd…f9b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $3,836,159 | $3,413 | 0.93 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:50 | HOODSTRATEGY 0x4ea8…10ba | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 114 | $66,184 | $11,154 | 1.57 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:49 | HOODSTRATEGY 0xff1a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $27,605 | $6,032 | 1.58 | filterC:sellSim |
| 12:46 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 91 | $11,083 | $9,845 | 1.50 | ADMITTED |
| 12:44 | STRC 0xe292…2457 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 473 | $15,040 | $6,586 | 1.05 | gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5 |
| 12:43 | ROOT 0x9698…11d0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 129 | $96,725 | $33,140 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:40 | MSTR 0xec26…da09 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 46 | $1,139,273 | $105,743 | 1.17 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:39 | haMSTR 0x3604…697f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 271 | $145,288 | $36,406 | 1.33 | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 |
| 12:37 | STRC 0x6612…bd4e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 180 | $7,297 | $338 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $7297 < $10000 |
| 12:36 | STRC 0x0d58…8214 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:34 | haMSTR 0x0b6a…b429 | pons-v2 | 26 | $21,810 | $151,385 | 0.99 | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 |
| 12:34 | STRC 0xb50f…c6b6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1182 | $13,272 | $28,920 | 0.77 | gateD:buy/sell 0.77 < 1.5 |
| 12:33 | STRC 0x39b2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $21,337 | $107 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $107 < $5000 |
| 12:33 | Uranus 0x8caf…8ccf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $12,457 | $157 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:32 | STRC 0x1a28…58bf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 197 | $90,710 | $6,947 | 1.74 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:28 | EMC 0x9cec…a4ed | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $31,592 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:23 | 4WALL 0x8dfb…7ba0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $41,427 | $708 | 23.50 | gateD:vol5 $708 < $5000 |
| 12:21 | EMC 0xfa3e…a417 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:05 | ASTEROID 0xfd82…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 78 | $355,796 | $18,308 | 0.78 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:59 | ASSAY 0xe039…f091 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $75,022 | $38,242 | 1.37 | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 |
| 11:55 | Chaton 0x4521…772e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 524 | $21,562 | $29,160 | 1.01 | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 |
| 11:33 | FloorPad 0x7915…00c9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 120 | $58,514 | $30,158 | 1.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:31 | FAT 0xae4a…46a8 | pons-v2 | 29 | $38,340 | $126,354 | 0.80 | gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5 |
| 11:31 | FAT 0x8674…7015 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 170 | $111,208 | $78,579 | 3.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:29 | HEDGE 0x48dc…2bd9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $59,279 | $3,684 | 0.73 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:28 | ROCK 0x47b8…ffad | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:23 | OTC 0x9a88…37eb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 112 | $24,919 | $18,388 | 1.74 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:20 | Quiver 0xbcad…cecb | pons-v2 | 54 | $2 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:13 | MEMORY 0x778c…7001 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $16,531 | $1,463 | 1.20 | gateD:vol5 $1463 < $5000 |
| 11:10 | FloorPad 0xc1e8…ae03 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $21,511 | $19,450 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 11:09 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 159 | $12,580 | $11,160 | 1.54 | ADMITTED |
| 11:07 | Scarce 0x87ee…b213 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $42,179 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:04 | Scarce 0x7aa6…d3e9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 138 | $118,649 | $86,541 | 2.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 35 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 15 |
| gateD:features | 12 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 12 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 12 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 12 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 9 |
| gateD:vol5 | 7 |
| gateD:liq | 5 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 4 |
| C:sellSimStale | 2 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
238 refusals checked at +1h so far. 16 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 199 | -9.9% | 8 |
| filterC | 39 | +21.4% | 8 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:15 | ASTEROID | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +16.8% | +9.1% |
| 13:00 | ASSAY | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 | h1 | +259.3% | +119.3% |
| 13:00 | Chaton | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 | h1 | -71.0% | -46.2% |
| 12:45 | FloorPad | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +298.7% | +141.9% |
| 12:45 | FAT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +6.9% | +4.1% |
| 12:45 | FAT | gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5 | h1 | +5.0% | +1.1% |
| 12:30 | Quiver | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +132.4% | +52.9% |
| 12:30 | OTC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +262.6% | +126.2% |
| 12:30 | ROCK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 12:30 | HEDGE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +6.5% | +3.4% |
| 12:15 | Scarce | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -62.6% | -47.0% |
| 12:15 | Scarce | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:15 | FloorPad | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | +333.7% | +108.0% |
| 12:15 | MEMORY | gateD:vol5 $1463 < $5000 | h1 | -12.5% | -8.2% |
| 12:00 | Scarce | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -79.2% | -55.4% |
| 12:00 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.1% | +0.1% |
| 12:00 | REJECTED | gateD:liq $4018 < $10000 | h1 | -5.7% | -5.5% |
| 12:00 | PTP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:00 | PTP | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -7.1% | -5.0% |
| 12:00 | memory | gateD:liq $4948 < $10000 | h1 | -9.8% | -9.5% |
| 12:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.2% | +8.4% |
| 11:45 | HEIST | gateD:vol5 $3079 < $5000 | h1 | -26.8% | -14.4% |
| 11:45 | NAVIERSTOKES | gateD:vol5 $2687 < $5000 | h1 | -20.3% | -15.8% |
| 11:45 | OTTI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -22.2% | -15.4% |
| 11:45 | AI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +4.8% | +2.8% |
| 11:45 | RPG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -20.9% | -11.1% |
| 11:45 | OTTI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11:30 | STRATTON | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -20.0% | -10.7% |
| 11:30 | Navier | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +17.9% | +10.9% |
| 11:30 | ⅄ | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)