Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 11:18 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
12.8h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 20s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 36s ago ok
Socket events 14,625 · failsafes 8 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 5,699 rpc · 1,662 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
9,958
launches seen
→
255
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
33
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 9,571 · gate D 217 · filter C 32 · vetoed 1 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $6.14 | $6.14 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.53 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $6.14 | > $0 | met |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 100% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1082 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:08 | OS 0xe4e1…5cea | pons-v2 | 30 | $20,250 | $64,852 | 1.07 | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 |
| 10:57 | QUNEK 0x6486…1ce1 | pons-v2 | 101 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:51 | SCOOP 0x491d…1e24 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $13,166 | $2,203 | 0.76 | gateD:vol5 $2203 < $5000 |
| 10:35 | BALLOON 0x0a3d…efb3 | pons-v2 | 74 | $15,625 | $21,752 | 1.39 | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 |
| 10:01 | SleepCoin 0x78aa…ed61 | pons-v2 | 103 | $34,662 | $166,678 | 1.12 | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 |
| 09:55 | DRAFT 0x5be0…187a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 80 | $43,701 | $16,223 | 7.18 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:33 | MEAT 0x29b6…3adf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 119 | $67,523 | $19,821 | 1.42 | gateD:buy/sell 1.42 < 1.5 |
| 09:27 | Moo 0xd10e…b115 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $32,208 | $5,454 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:20 | MEAT 0x84ea…b6d9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $70,605 | $26,238 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:12 | MEAT 0x3709…4333 | pons-v2 | 59 | $22,122 | $70,812 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 09:11 | FLY 0x0072…1224 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $39,066 | $26,775 | 1.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:01 | RETIRE 0xda41…efc5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $44,493 | $0 | +5m honeypot veto: 21 buys and 0 sells | |
| 08:52 | FLYBRAIN 0x2541…446b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $15,518 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:49 | 24k 0x6817…955c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 188 | $36,488 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:49 | 24k 0x149a…f4fe | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $44,813 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:39 | DARTH 0x04d2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $22,658 | $32 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $32 < $5000 |
| 08:34 | 24K 0xdfac…0e7b | pons-v2 | 38 | $15,889 | $8,900 | 1.66 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 08:30 | JVMI 0x7631…c3cb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 170 | $25,176 | $28,448 | 0.45 | gateD:buy/sell 0.45 < 1.5 |
| 08:24 | STOATRADE 0x4c21…34f2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $16,749 | $6,006 | 0.70 | gateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5 |
| 08:21 | BRIAN 0x2cca…7ccc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $8,451 | $31 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $8451 < $10000 |
| 08:19 | BRIAN 0xbc9a…93be | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $47,724 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:15 | BRIAN 0x2e9d…6e02 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $3,958 | $178 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3958 < $10000 |
| 08:00 | VC 0x4437…926a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 181 | $63,250 | $27,311 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:48 | PRELIST 0xcbcd…e059 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $72,464 | $5,743 | 17.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:48 | brian 0xf98a…522e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $7,009 | $6,017 | 0.57 | gateD:liq $7009 < $10000 |
| 07:47 | FLY 0x086c…0996 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 150 | $56,310 | $5,705 | 0.50 | gateD:buy/sell 0.50 < 1.5 |
| 07:46 | FLY 0x6c5a…b8ed | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $37,760 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:46 | OPZEMPINU 0x1132…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 124 | $29,350 | $1,656 | 1.80 | gateD:vol5 $1656 < $5000 |
| 07:41 | SDR 0xae24…f1d1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $17,087 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:38 | CARDMOON 0x773c…7ddc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 143 | $92,738 | $74,803 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:36 | iHOLD 0xf26d…de9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $90,390 | $19,672 | 1.86 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:29 | MKT 0x7490…964a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 219 | $83,929 | $17,428 | 2.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:28 | PENNY 0xb270…6a4d | pons-v2 | 32 | $16,035 | $17,166 | 1.60 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 07:24 | iHOLD 0x94b9…a119 | pons-v2 | 70 | $13,875 | $9,941 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 07:23 | MKT 0x12b6…a6a1 | pons-v2 | 103 | $26,146 | $137,194 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 07:19 | HOLD 0x0645…37ad | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $61,000 | $9,580 | 2.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:18 | HOLD 0x8daf…612c | pons-v2 | 39 | $8,562 | $28,217 | 0.76 | gateD:liq $8562 < $10000 |
| 07:08 | flysim 0x517b…6aac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $29,146 | $7,871 | 0.63 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:59 | BTC 0x53ce…1405 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 215 | $7,592 | $814 | 0.23 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:50 | LOCKHEEDINU 0xba60…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $39,695 | $94 | 1.25 | gateD:vol5 $94 < $5000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 129 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 27 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 27 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 25 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 24 |
| gateD:liq | 20 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 18 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 18 |
| gateD:features | 17 |
| gateD:vol5 | 8 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 3 |
| C:copycat | 3 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1017 refusals checked at +1h so far. 88 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 810 | -9.2% | 35 |
| filterC | 205 | +59.9% | 53 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 2 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:15 | ODYSSEY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:15 | tip | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -96.4% | -89.6% |
| 11:15 | CITY | gateD:liq $4246 < $10000 | d1 | -24.3% | -13.0% |
| 11:15 | CITY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +134.5% | +68.5% |
| 11:15 | RECEIPT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -22.6% | -12.8% |
| 11:15 | SleepCoin | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 | h1 | -77.2% | -52.3% |
| 11:00 | $PHUB | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -91.9% | -71.7% |
| 11:00 | PARLEY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -56.8% | -34.8% |
| 11:00 | DOGSHIT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +26.6% | +10.1% |
| 11:00 | SPIN | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 | d1 | -84.4% | -60.9% |
| 11:00 | MANY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +61.2% | +25.9% |
| 11:00 | DRILL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.6% | -1.0% |
| 11:00 | SPIN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -36.0% | n/a |
| 11:00 | ZZZ | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -20.3% | -11.4% |
| 11:00 | discord | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -94.6% | n/a |
| 11:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -1.4% | -5.8% |
| 11:00 | FRCT | gateD:vol5 $2155 < $5000 | d1 | -92.3% | -72.3% |
| 11:00 | SPIN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -8.9% | -5.6% |
| 11:00 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +0.0% | -3.8% |
| 11:00 | DRAFT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +47.5% | -100.0% |
| 10:45 | MEAT | gateD:buy/sell 1.42 < 1.5 | h1 | +3.4% | +2.3% |
| 10:30 | BILLY | gateD:liq $7795 < $10000 | d1 | -64.5% | -40.5% |
| 10:30 | H100 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 | d1 | -89.9% | -68.3% |
| 10:30 | H100 | gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 10:30 | MEAT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10:30 | Moo | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +17.3% | +12.7% |
| 10:15 | RETIRE | +5m honeypot veto: 21 buys and 0 sells | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10:15 | FLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +21.2% | +11.4% |
| 10:15 | MEAT | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 | h1 | -90.5% | -69.1% |
| 10:00 | V | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -99.3% | -91.8% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)