Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 03:50 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$66.78
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.26
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
2.1h
since 08 Sept, 01:43 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 4s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 4s ago ok
Socket events 3,878 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,026 rpc · 300 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
2,503
launches seen
→
107
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
11
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
3
opened
Refused: gate B 2,123 · gate D 86 · filter C 8 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -$66.78 | -$22.26 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (3)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:13 | 03:23 | SWEEP 0x73f6…aed8 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 70m | 1.67x | trail | $9.08 | +9.1% | B:154 buyers · D:liq $14665 vol5 $9554 b/s 1.61 · C:allowlist · size-up:156 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 03:05 | 03:10 | Spyder 0x5f67…975c | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 5m | 1.12x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:28 buyers · D:liq $18500 vol5 $28097 b/s 1.56 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:10 | 02:13 | UNITY 0x1fc0…fa41 | Gold v2 | 14.4m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$50.28 | -50.3% | B:491 buyers · D:liq $14171 vol5 $13491 b/s 1.79 · C:allowlist · size-up:501 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 3 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.09 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$66.78 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 33% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 139 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:47 | WOLF 0x2154…0d5d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 805 | $3,006,354 | $1,817,836 | 1.55 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:47 | COMPUTECOIN 0xeba8…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $24,747 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:47 | SECURTITIES 0xcbdd…cb8e | pons-v2 | 29 | $6,702 | $55 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $6702 < $10000 |
| 03:43 | COMPUTE 0x3f94…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 503 | $56,895 | $30,019 | 0.52 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:28 | PANE 0x7d3d…8981 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:28 | NASTY 0x7598…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $33,371 | $4,082 | 1.81 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:27 | ZDOG 0x80f4…4f5e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:26 | FIRE 0xb266…ca3a | pons-v2 | 63 | $6,207 | $4,269 | 0.94 | gateD:liq $6207 < $10000 |
| 03:26 | SHOPIFY 0xf480…b105 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 175 | $70,484 | $23,809 | 2.10 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:26 | ZCAT 0x5f05…10b3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:24 | POOPCOIN 0x44ad…bd33 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $56,294 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:23 | ZCAT 0x6972…4cb2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 403 | $6,032 | $1,747 | 0.68 | gateD:liq $6032 < $10000 |
| 03:21 | EQUITY 0xbe7b…bfce | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $31,670 | $3,490 | 1.75 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:15 | AQU 0x92be…061c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $52,641 | $3,904 | 1.29 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:13 | DOGE 0xe99e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $29,679 | $602 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:12 | OSR 0x19b6…9d01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $4,587 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:10 | SHOPIFY 0xf4d4…6514 | pons-v2 | 60 | $23,156 | $11,647 | 1.55 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 03:06 | SUPER 0x1862…3082 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $60,064 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:05 | Spyder 0x5f67…975c | pons-v2 | 28 | $18,500 | $28,097 | 1.56 | ADMITTED |
| 03:04 | PANE 0x7a20…7129 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:58 | SUPER 0x9c0a…9049 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $111,591 | $35,880 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:55 | KERF 0x384c…8dd5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $74,201 | $73,589 | 1.32 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:50 | VEEF 0x692c…cba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $0 | $293 | 0.11 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 02:47 | SPREAD 0xe7fb…c6d0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 92 | $58,104 | $7,626 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 02:43 | PRIMED 0x0c14…8179 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $27,119 | $7,091 | 0.97 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:41 | Neko 0x7059…3f49 | pons-v2 | 80 | $2 | $2 | gateD:liq $2 < $10000 | |
| 02:38 | OSR 0xa17a…3e01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $4,587 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:30 | SPREAD 0x4243…d89b | pons-v2 | 32 | $19,895 | $40,346 | 1.60 | filterC:sellSim |
| 02:30 | TSLA 0x322f…3b2d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $1,370,771 | $13,084 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:29 | GIGA 0x4338…fa14 | pons-v2 | 43 | $7,246 | $7,504 | 0.76 | gateD:liq $7246 < $10000 |
| 02:28 | ILS 0xa498…6701 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $5,049 | $848 | 0.17 | gateD:liq $5049 < $10000 |
| 02:27 | CYBERBULL 0xc6d0…2cb2 | pons-v2 | 35 | $14,701 | $59,612 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 02:26 | C 0xb355…e77a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $6,743 | $4 | gateD:liq $6743 < $10000 | |
| 02:25 | Brainlet 0xd7ea…9899 | pons-v2 | 34 | $4 | $1 | gateD:liq $4 < $10000 | |
| 02:25 | PROBED 0x125b…ab80 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $36,293 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:24 | JackPons 0x30b7…20d5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $18,785 | $2,438 | 0.96 | gateD:vol5 $2438 < $5000 |
| 02:22 | BITS 0x7594…3001 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $3,999 | $141 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3999 < $10000 |
| 02:22 | PROBED 0x4eed…3251 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 123 | $98,963 | $26,564 | 1.85 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:21 | WHOLE 0x31ca…e71c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $5,175 | $2,113 | 0.17 | gateD:liq $5175 < $10000 |
| 02:17 | Jeff 0xe01a…ef2e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 71 | $41,812 | $19,713 | 1.84 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 33 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 20 |
| gateD:liq | 15 |
| gateD:features | 14 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 5 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 5 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 5 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 4 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| gateD:vol5 | 2 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:sellSimStale | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
106 refusals checked at +1h so far. 9 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 92 | -10.2% | 4 |
| filterC | 14 | +35.6% | 5 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:45 | SPREAD | filterC:sellSim | h1 | +50.8% | +22.9% |
| 03:45 | OSR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 03:45 | Neko | gateD:liq $2 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:45 | PRIMED | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +28.9% | +13.5% |
| 03:45 | TSLA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | 0.0% | +1.3% |
| 03:30 | iFold | gateD:liq $2 < $10000 | h1 | +391.0% | +783482.2% |
| 03:30 | VA | gateD:liq $5145 < $10000 | h1 | -10.2% | -5.3% |
| 03:30 | LAPTOP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +6.4% | +3.0% |
| 03:30 | Jeff | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +109.3% | +71.2% |
| 03:30 | WHOLE | gateD:liq $5175 < $10000 | h1 | -13.2% | -12.6% |
| 03:30 | PROBED | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +1.1% | +0.4% |
| 03:30 | BITS | gateD:liq $3999 < $10000 | h1 | -5.3% | -5.1% |
| 03:30 | JackPons | gateD:vol5 $2438 < $5000 | h1 | -92.4% | -72.5% |
| 03:30 | Brainlet | gateD:liq $4 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:30 | PROBED | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:30 | C | gateD:liq $6743 < $10000 | h1 | -34.9% | -28.0% |
| 03:30 | CYBERBULL | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 | h1 | -71.6% | -46.7% |
| 03:30 | ILS | gateD:liq $5049 < $10000 | h1 | -6.2% | -5.7% |
| 03:30 | GIGA | gateD:liq $7246 < $10000 | h1 | -53.5% | -31.8% |
| 03:15 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.1% | +0.2% |
| 03:15 | FAME | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -79.2% | -54.5% |
| 03:15 | ROUTE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +23.7% | +11.5% |
| 03:15 | Apes | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -64.5% | -40.3% |
| 03:15 | snail | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:15 | 🕯️ | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:15 | Community | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -59.0% | -36.0% |
| 03:15 | MEME | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -10.2% | -6.4% |
| 03:15 | XO3ЯEBA | gateD:vol5 $689 < $5000 | h1 | -90.3% | -68.9% |
| 03:15 | PINK | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -17.4% | -9.0% |
| 03:15 | MUSK | gateD:liq $6556 < $10000 | h1 | -44.0% | -25.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)