Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 17:44 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$44.07
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
1 won · 1 open
Per trade
-$22.04
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.7h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 0s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 2s ago ok
Socket events 13,961 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 4,356 rpc · 1,254 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

10,732
launches seen
224
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
34
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
3
opened

Refused: gate B 9,738 · gate D 183 · filter C 31 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2121-$44.07-$22.04
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (1)

openedtokensetentrymarknowpeakleftrealizedwhy admitted
17:36JOMO 0xf238…1c91Gold v2$500.000037210.98x1.06x100%$0.00B:34 buyers · D:liq $17299 vol5 $5055 b/s 2.71 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Closed trades (2)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
12:4613:05USDUG 0xdd43…eb85Gold v213.7m20m1.90xtrail$15.52+15.5%B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m
11:0911:11SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8dGold v211.5m3m1.00xstop-$59.59-59.6%B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set240not yet
Running days0.365not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$44.07> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%50%50 to 73%met
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 340 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
17:43LUWAMA 0xb36a…3e64uniswap-v4-launchpad138$5,581$710.20gateD:liq $5581 < $10000
17:42Pusheen 0x1209…bb6euniswap-v4-launchpad441$23,639$55,5461.19gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5
17:42nub 0x0956…cde7pons-v221$3,673$20.00gateD:liq $3673 < $10000
17:37ASHIBA 0x25cd…f354uniswap-v4-launchpad114$20,848$7,1451.61filterC:sellSimStale
17:36JOMO 0xf238…1c91uniswap-v4-launchpad34$17,299$5,0552.71ADMITTED
17:35PUSHEEN 0x77e5…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad54$23,254$5331.75gateD:vol5 $533 < $5000
17:32BZZ 0xb356…a0bauniswap-v4-launchpad820$12,518$39,3250.79gateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5
17:29HOODLAND 0xd01d…741duniswap-v4-launchpad305$20,792$23,0521.40gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5
17:28BZZ 0x6641…aa3euniswap-v4-launchpad123$74,780$30,3101.55filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:27SGD 0x7727…bb11uniswap-v4-launchpad44$37,096$5,2502.11filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:26HOODLAND 0xf6e8…1aa1uniswap-v4-launchpad154$91,490$27,4272.48filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:14Knight 0x6859…7d14uniswap-v4-launchpad78$46,840$18,0871.94filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
17:13Coca Cola 0x739a…7291uniswap-v4-launchpad45$36,373$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
17:09USDE 0xa3c6…1234uniswap-v4-launchpad255$6,327$5660.17gateD:liq $6327 < $10000
17:09USDE 0x7fe4…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad24$20,723$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
17:09NVIDIA 0x2e11…2170uniswap-v4-launchpad23$34,575$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
17:04CDRM 0xf1fb…6ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad74$4,435$2gateD:liq $4435 < $10000
16:57AUTOAI 0x4396…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad27$10,280$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:54RKN 0xc0db…0674uniswap-v4-launchpad35$31,293$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:54FLYWHEEL 0x0441…e71fpons-v261$5,825$1,0450.80gateD:liq $5825 < $10000
16:51AXOM 0xe2eb…aba3uniswap-v4-launchpad48$9,087$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:51AMAZONCOIN 0x1dbb…328euniswap-v4-launchpad45$53,175$17,0792.38filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:44SPXG 0xb70a…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad186$156,745$31,5770.78gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
16:40MEMES 0xe67a…4f8cpons-v259$7,321$2,1660.52gateD:liq $7321 < $10000
16:40DEPLOY 0x2894…1662uniswap-v4-launchpad36$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:38DEPLOY 0x333b…9989uniswap-v4-launchpad26$30,111$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:37DEPLOY 0xacbf…32d3uniswap-v4-launchpad20$33,826$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:33PLUMBER 0x4230…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad111$24,130$16,5221.60filterC:sellSim
16:29HA 0x5961…6f01uniswap-v4-launchpad34$4,375$5140.17gateD:liq $4375 < $10000
16:26OG 0x31e3…9e4apons-v245$1$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:25OG 0xd15a…3f80pons-v233$26,406$80,1871.37gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5
16:22RR 0x4beb…1a69uniswap-v4-launchpad153$7,721$3,3080.32gateD:liq $7721 < $10000
16:16Hound 0x7efa…2e19uniswap-v4-launchpad78$73,939$16,7351.04gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
16:14YIPPEE 0x3595…80ffpons-v262$6,285$3,0030.53gateD:liq $6285 < $10000
16:14Hound 0xc8f3…9dc7pons-v220$5,972$4260.22gateD:liq $5972 < $10000
16:08DESK 0x5340…fba3uniswap-v4-launchpad99$23,397$6610.78gateD:vol5 $661 < $5000
16:04pennypools 0x1fff…f2f2uniswap-v4-launchpad29$31,135$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:02CONTRA 0x6776…b8b5uniswap-v4-launchpad63$68,896$39,5191.56filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
16:02CHAOS 0xbf09…be11uniswap-v4-launchpad32$44,438$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
16:00CHAOS 0x50b2…3c78uniswap-v4-launchpad37$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool88
gateD:features32
C:notV2VsWeth24
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager24
C:creatorShareUnknown24
gateD:liq19
gateD:poolMismatch18
gateD:buy/sell17
C:swapsH1<25012
gateD:vol59
C:sellSim4
C:sellSimStale3
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:copycat1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

298 refusals checked at +1h so far. 22 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD246-9.4%11
filterC52+23.9%11
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
17:30HoundgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+60.4%+26.7%
17:30RRgateD:liq $7721 < $10000h1-48.0%-27.8%
17:30OGgateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5h1+2.1%+1.2%
17:30OGgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
17:30HAgateD:liq $4375 < $10000h10.0%0.0%
17:15CHAOSgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
17:15CHAOSgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
17:15CONTRAfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+6.4%+4.3%
17:15pennypoolsgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
17:15DESKgateD:vol5 $661 < $5000h1-12.6%-11.8%
17:15HoundgateD:liq $5972 < $10000h1-11.6%-6.0%
17:15YIPPEEgateD:liq $6285 < $10000h1+3.6%+1.6%
17:00DogBobgateD:buy/sell 1.14 < 1.5h1-91.8%-71.5%
17:00PVEgateD:liq $5636 < $10000h1-33.2%-18.3%
17:00DogBobgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
17:00GREENgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-0.1%-0.1%
16:45PONDgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
16:45SonerafilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-20.0%-100.0%
16:45SIGNALfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-22.2%-14.9%
16:45MUgateD:liq $4868 < $10000h1-8.2%-7.9%
16:45CHAOSfilterC:sellSimh1-94.7%-77.0%
16:30YESgateD:buy/sell 1.41 < 1.5h1-86.7%-63.5%
16:30OGgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
16:30TreecoinfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+235.5%+124.6%
16:30VLEAPfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+223.8%+116.5%
16:30haMSTRgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
16:30MeowDenggateD:liq $8104 < $10000h1-13.7%-7.2%
16:15SHVLfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+7.4%-100.0%
16:15RSTRgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+7.1%+3.5%
16:15JohngateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)