Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 19:30 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$305.22
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
9
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$33.91
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.9h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 48s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 49s ago ok
Socket events 14,458 · failsafes 6 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,926 rpc · 1,137 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

10,178
launches seen
283
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
51
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
9
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
9
opened

Refused: gate B 9,555 · gate D 228 · filter C 42 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 4 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2092-$305.22-$33.91
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (9)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
18:5019:21PEPEGOLD 0x19f3…d91bGold v210.4m31m1.32xstop-$50.72-50.7%B:99 buyers · D:liq $26193 vol5 $13163 b/s 1.67 · C:allowlist · size-up:99 distinct buyers in 30m
17:5718:01TUTANKHAMOOLAH 0x608f…d394Gold v213m4m1.89xtrail$6.87+13.7%B:37 buyers · D:liq $18337 vol5 $50604 b/s 1.59 · C:allowlist · single ticket
16:4916:57NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6Gold v212.1m8m1.03xconfirm_bail-$7.52-15.0%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17463 vol5 $9057 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · single ticket
16:0816:17Fork 0xa5fd…a71eGold v210.1m9m1.26xstop-$46.24-92.5%B:45 buyers · D:liq $17793 vol5 $9026 b/s 1.53 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:4313:13BNTR 0x12d1…68bbGold v211.3m90m1.36xmax_hold$0.70+1.4%B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:5111:54BUROS 0x1901…ace6Gold v210m3m1.00xstop-$55.00-55.0%B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m
11:2911:31GARDEN 0x5185…0d7aGold v213.9m2m1.00xstop-$65.65-65.7%B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m
10:5711:03Oilinu 0x54b7…d06cGold v213.5m6m1.00xstop-$26.94-53.9%B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket
10:5010:53CHIPR 0x6a80…9469Gold v210.2m3m1.00xstop-$60.72-60.7%B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set940not yet
Running days0.375not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$305.22> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%22%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 878 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
19:27SSEED 0x6391…2b4euniswap-v4-launchpad145$95,931$41,6941.78filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:24TCORGI 0xca5d…dd10uniswap-v4-launchpad57$63,461$34,5341.68filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:21STARTUP 0x7f67…5f33uniswap-v4-launchpad21$3,231$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:21ND4 0xea71…0549uniswap-v4-launchpad60$54,009$21,1651.78filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:20ARCT 0xe168…bbe9uniswap-v4-launchpad27$42,558$9,5461.31gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:12QI 0xdd92…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad27$48,627$6,1270.50gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:11DEFLY 0x0603…2034pons-v227$5,929$1,0444.00gateD:liq $5929 < $10000
19:11PICKLES 0xa1b5…e34cuniswap-v4-launchpad221$85,132$23,0412.19filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
19:10Asset 0x39e0…f8f4uniswap-v4-launchpad50$48,186$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:09Asset 0x3c7a…9bc6uniswap-v4-launchpad224$62,469$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:06pdom 0xfcf3…d2e2uniswap-v4-launchpad99$43,716$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:05GIGGLES 0xdc41…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad25$27,497$3,8921.67gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:04Asset 0xa803…8c43pons-v259$6,848$4,1100.92gateD:liq $6848 < $10000
19:04MSFT 0xe932…2e74uniswap-v4-launchpad25$701,506$21,9776.35gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
19:02SuperOctopus420 0x9029…3931uniswap-v4-launchpad65$40,819$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
19:01DATADOG 0x51e4…76e9uniswap-v4-launchpad41$42,536$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:57Arc 0xeb6b…ccf8uniswap-v4-launchpad56$64,620$22,4252.06filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:53RAMCOlN 0x28b4…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad85$20,737$52.00gateD:vol5 $5 < $5000
18:50PEPEGOLD 0x19f3…d91buniswap-v4-launchpad99$26,193$13,1631.67ADMITTED
18:44INFR 0xc3b1…2ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad38$11,287$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:40PLOG 0xeb65…c365pons-v222$6,762$4,1710.97gateD:liq $6762 < $10000
18:38DLPH 0x1cae…fba3uniswap-v4-launchpad27$9,370$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:37LOXLEY 0xf38d…4b15uniswap-v4-launchpad158$119,531$60,0371.95filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:37CEREBRO 0xeb24…9c4buniswap-v4-launchpad68$26,955$6740.67gateD:vol5 $674 < $5000
18:35HODL 0xd612…bbbbuniswap-v4-launchpad84$8,562$2,8080.09gateD:liq $8562 < $10000
18:33CEREBRO 0x1988…d8c3uniswap-v4-launchpad207$83,858$43,8321.72filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:33HODL 0xe5e9…bbbbuniswap-v4-launchpad226$4,406$750.00gateD:liq $4406 < $10000
18:30TAX 0xd2f8…bbbbuniswap-v4-launchpad189$4,902$1,8270.40gateD:liq $4902 < $10000
18:30DATADOG 0x0275…3dd7pons-v252$4$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:27STRATTON 0xb7ea…8360uniswap-v4-launchpad43$115,424$19,1731.69gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
18:26Kotlin 0xcaf5…3116pons-v251$5$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:24HELLO 0xfcb3…68f8pons-v2216$19,469$26,4822.17filterC:sellSim
18:24COLLECTIBLE 0x2ad7…6127pons-v230$5,146$6,0401.31gateD:liq $5146 < $10000
18:20cardboard 0xccd3…d15funiswap-v4-launchpad143$92,388$75,5491.64filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
18:19QUBOCOIN 0xa41e…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad58$23,346$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:19QUBO 0x9dfe…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad31$21,145$82.00gateD:vol5 $8 < $5000
18:17QUBO 0x0b72…1c4epons-v228$9,056$9,5890.63gateD:liq $9056 < $10000
18:17IBM 0x980d…9619uniswap-v4-launchpad32$284,041$9,4720.70gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
18:17REC 0x6ff2…bbeauniswap-v4-launchpad79$57,543$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
18:14CAMPOS 0x07af…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad54$30,430$2,5670.69gateD:vol5 $2567 < $5000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool99
gateD:features40
C:notV2VsWeth32
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager32
C:creatorShareUnknown32
gateD:liq31
gateD:poolMismatch26
gateD:buy/sell18
C:swapsH1<25018
gateD:vol514
C:sellSim6
C:sellSimStale4
C:tapeRatio>42

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

801 refusals checked at +1h so far. 61 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD647-8.1%28
filterC153+62.5%33
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
19:15BEEgateD:vol5 $3434 < $5000d1-31.9%-27.9%
19:15INFgateD:liq $5304 < $10000d1-32.4%-17.8%
19:15URANUSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
19:15METgateD:liq $3485 < $10000h1-2.9%-2.9%
19:15KRCgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
19:15MMCfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+283.6%+141.5%
19:15JacobgateD:vol5 $3712 < $5000h1-21.5%-11.4%
19:15RABBITgateD:liq $5882 < $10000h1-26.6%-24.2%
19:15ASTEROIDgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+30.2%+14.6%
19:15CAMPOSgateD:vol5 $2567 < $5000h1-15.7%-13.5%
19:15CTOfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
19:15ORIKAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-5.9%-5.8%
19:15GPTHEISTgateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5d1-87.4%-64.5%
19:15CLUBgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-8.8%-7.8%
19:15UBIKgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-0.6%-19.4%
19:00BROSgateD:liq $9461 < $10000d1-81.2%-56.8%
19:00BROSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+2.1%+1.4%
19:00ELIZABAOfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-61.3%-45.6%
19:00KIMCHIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownd1-87.5%-65.6%
19:00PONSATHONgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
19:00HNCgateD:liq $5111 < $10000d1-13.8%-7.1%
19:00CHOODgateD:vol5 $394 < $5000d1-19.6%-18.6%
19:00WSGgateD:vol5 $1068 < $5000d1-88.2%-65.6%
19:00COLLECTIBLEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-16.3%-8.5%
19:00MEMESgateD:liq $8770 < $10000h1-69.2%-44.5%
19:00MEMESgateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5h10.0%0.0%
19:00ROBERTgateD:vol5 $1950 < $5000h1-87.1%-63.6%
19:00GUAVAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
19:00MoolahfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-51.4%-32.8%
19:00ROBERTgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)