Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 01:48 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
1.1h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 28s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 29s ago ok
Socket events 2,259 · failsafes 2 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 390 rpc · 95 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

1,340
launches seen
68
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
4
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 981 · gate D 54 · filter C 4 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.055not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1315 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
01:44RIVN 0xb1bf…114buniswap-v4-launchpad63$205,834$1,529,7380.98gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:44RIVN 0x7344…7e01uniswap-v4-launchpad72$12,317$6581.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:43imdbot 0x4e28…b4ccuniswap-v4-launchpad64$137,365$14,2021.18gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:42PORK 0x874d…ed44uniswap-v4-launchpad35$6$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:42RIVN 0x6a4c…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad23$21,253$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:41RIDE 0x8b3e…17f8uniswap-v4-launchpad1507$45,346$57,9891.96filterC:sellSim
01:36CPR 0x2043…4551uniswap-v4-launchpad51$13,466$5,4065.91filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
01:36PDOOM 0x6df5…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad365$137,187$80,1280.56gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5
01:33FLYWHEEL 0x5587…56f9uniswap-v4-launchpad22$16,262$3,4410.95gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:29MIDORU 0xa111…ac04uniswap-v4-launchpad38$27,847$6,3692.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:29Nvidia 0xece9…10bdpons-v250$6,277$7,3180.41gateD:liq $6277 < $10000
01:28NVDA 0xd060…9eecuniswap-v4-launchpad35$7,354,168$66,0330.83gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:27LONG 0x39e6…ce97uniswap-v4-launchpad30$16,735$1,81011.00gateD:vol5 $1810 < $5000
01:23GERI 0x36ed…7815uniswap-v4-launchpad234$19,889$40,2171.35gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5
01:20TYLEE 0x03d4…dddduniswap-v4-launchpad22$5,266$486gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:17FLY 0x588e…f1e4uniswap-v4-launchpad63$36,255$11,4362.22filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:16CS6900 0x01b4…c9bbuniswap-v4-launchpad50$61$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:15FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35uniswap-v4-launchpad26$72,037$3,7811.11gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:14GME 0xc236…4ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad61$278,791$1,2190.88gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:14Stonkfly 0xc613…b148uniswap-v4-launchpad30$97,658$4,1941.11gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:13GME 0x1b0e…153euniswap-v4-launchpad57$671,139$55,5821.07gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:13MIDORI 0x2723…0f1euniswap-v4-launchpad36$16,683$7300.60gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:10MC 0x3327…f55buniswap-v4-launchpad29$20,953$1,6470.27gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:07Nvidia 0x3c1f…9f77pons-v232$20,158$26,4271.31gateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5
01:06Æ 0xec29…792cpons-v251$19,610$18,0681.16gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5
01:06SPY 0x117c…4c0cuniswap-v4-launchpad21$1,800,058$3,5040.75gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:02FLY 0xd07b…e12funiswap-v4-launchpad24$116,629$14,3190.76gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:02REVENANT 0x848d…24acuniswap-v4-launchpad22$43,036$6,4280.67gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:01ETHCAT 0x35a3…5729uniswap-v4-launchpad45$50,287$19,8832.15filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:00MIDORUCAT 0x07c4…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad31$35,512$4,0410.77gateD:vol5 $4041 < $5000
01:00PHAT 0xf834…8a52uniswap-v4-launchpad119$365$1700.70gateD:liq $365 < $10000
01:00Harvest 0x22d1…03dcuniswap-v4-launchpad21$67,009$11,9381.38gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
00:58>_ 0xa9dd…b01duniswap-v4-launchpad78$15,391$20,1751.31gateD:buy/sell 1.31 < 1.5
00:58Sheaf 0x0d30…3153uniswap-v4-launchpad23$4,906$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
00:25X 0x78c9…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad30$51,735$23,2101.02gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5
23:10RGS 0x374a…f00cuniswap-v4-launchpad65$12,776$2,9710.82gateD:vol5 $2971 < $5000
22:35ROCKETFROG 0xd78b…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad20$26,557$1,4870.80gateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000
22:28FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35uniswap-v4-launchpad107$43,070$87,2770.83gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:28STONKFLY 0x85ef…85a4uniswap-v4-launchpad49$135,949$1,027,0761.84gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:26RocketFrog 0x8e7d…f6cfuniswap-v4-launchpad28$7,357$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool24
gateD:poolMismatch18
gateD:buy/sell5
gateD:features3
C:notV2VsWeth3
C:swapsH1<2503
C:creatorShareUnknown3
gateD:vol52
gateD:liq2
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager2
C:copycat1
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:tapeRatio>41
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1
C:sellSim1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1214 refusals checked at +1h so far. 112 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD960-9.9%45
filterC251+59.2%67
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
01:45IgateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5d1-93.1%-74.1%
01:45FUCKgateD:liq $9688 < $10000d1+288.8%+110.0%
01:30MIRAGEFIgateD:vol5 $198 < $5000d1+93.0%+39.3%
01:30🍏gateD:liq $8747 < $10000d1-72.5%-46.8%
01:30SHROOMgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+25.1%+9.4%
01:30XgateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5h1+44.9%+28.9%
01:30BATWIFgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-12.6%-12.2%
01:15vellgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
01:15WORKSgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
01:15BillycoinfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
01:15ROBfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+126.2%+75.3%
01:00ponzigateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
01:00ROBgateD:liq $9106 < $10000d1-79.9%-55.3%
01:00BROSgateD:liq $9 < $10000d1+21.1%-9.0%
00:45MOOFgateD:liq $8617 < $10000d1-64.6%-39.6%
00:45FIDOgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-1.2%-1.1%
00:45FIDOgateD:liq $1 < $10000d1+1202.4%+1403.6%
00:45FIDOgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-12.7%-12.2%
00:45AAPLgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+3.1%+121.2%
00:30USDGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+0.1%-59.1%
00:30anonfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+48.3%-100.0%
00:15CLOCKERSgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-49.3%-36.1%
00:15RGSgateD:vol5 $2971 < $5000h1-76.3%-51.3%
00:00AFTERgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-69.7%-45.1%
23:45ROCKETFROGgateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000h1-21.6%-20.1%
23:30GRASSgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+37.8%+17.4%
23:30batonfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownd1+165.9%+91.0%
23:30HOPPYgateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5h10.0%0.0%
23:30BANYANAgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+63.6%-100.0%
23:30CSGOgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1n/an/a

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)