Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 19:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$56.73
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
1 won · 1 open
Per trade
-$18.91
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
10.5h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 25s ago ok
Socket events 16,725 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 5,301 rpc · 1,531 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
12,687
launches seen
→
297
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
50
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
4
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
4
opened
Refused: gate B 12,315 · gate D 235 · filter C 46 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -$56.73 | -$18.91 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (1)
| opened | token | set | entry | mark | now | peak | left | realized | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:04 | CANAL 0xb796…aec8 | Gold v2 | $50 | 0.0001864 | 1.41x | 1.68x | 50% | $7.20 | B:72 buyers · D:liq $33980 vol5 $5462 b/s 2.64 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Closed trades (3)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:36 | 19:06 | JOMO 0xf238…1c91 | Gold v2 | 12m | 90m | 1.06x | max_hold | -$12.66 | -25.3% | B:34 buyers · D:liq $17299 vol5 $5055 b/s 2.71 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 12:46 | 13:05 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | Gold v2 | 13.7m | 20m | 1.90x | trail | $15.52 | +15.5% | B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:09 | 11:11 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$59.59 | -59.6% | B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 3 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.44 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$56.73 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 33% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 396 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:27 | ANTH 0xf2ce…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $22,216 | $461 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $461 < $5000 |
| 19:27 | FROGE 0xef41…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 404 | $41,772 | $16,251 | 0.58 | gateD:buy/sell 0.58 < 1.5 |
| 19:27 | OPENAI 0x85a4…0970 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $74,865 | $16,959 | 0.94 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:26 | AITAX 0xb244…7db0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 973 | $53,823 | $143,853 | 0.64 | gateD:buy/sell 0.64 < 1.5 |
| 19:25 | ANTHROPIC 0x4eb5…1cf4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $35,361 | $293 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:24 | XMR 0x38f7…235c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $23,957 | $79,185 | 0.98 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:23 | MCAT 0x226b…b10b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $29,687 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:22 | DATACENTER 0xd8fb…d489 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $51,162 | $11,229 | 1.90 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:21 | MONEROCHAN 0x12fd…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 1268 | $107,838 | $68,084 | 1.00 | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 |
| 19:21 | STANDARD 0x8bb5…7e01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $4,173 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:20 | MUCAT 0x21a3…4e01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 122 | $3,229 | $2,668 | 1.45 | gateD:liq $3229 < $10000 |
| 19:18 | VEEF 0xe244…cba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $0 | $6 | 0.33 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 19:17 | DUAT 0x2c0f…3bcd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $97 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:17 | AISTR 0x593f…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $20,164 | $1,378 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $1378 < $5000 |
| 19:15 | TWLF 0x7141…c93c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $1,818 | $1,292 | 1.78 | gateD:liq $1818 < $10000 |
| 19:14 | URANUS 0xc2b2…02ca | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $52,211 | $13,232 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:14 | INF 0xdfe1…974b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 387 | $5,304 | $272 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5304 < $10000 |
| 19:13 | BEE 0x5fc2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 186 | $30,937 | $3,434 | 1.45 | gateD:vol5 $3434 < $5000 |
| 19:12 | UBIK 0x8124…68bd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $468,157 | $8,514 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:11 | CLUB 0xd34b…1297 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $4,939 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:07 | GPTHEIST 0xbabb…2242 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $14,693 | $5,037 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 19:06 | ORIKA 0x59c4…eba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $9,607 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:04 | CANAL 0xb796…aec8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 72 | $33,980 | $5,462 | 2.64 | ADMITTED |
| 19:01 | CTO 0xdfb4…7673 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $46,749 | $16,189 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:56 | COLLECTIBLE 0xe470…8efd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 203 | $5,701 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:55 | WSG 0xaa86…d80f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $15,488 | $1,068 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $1068 < $5000 |
| 18:54 | CHOOD 0x76fc…2b07 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $30,552 | $394 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $394 < $5000 |
| 18:52 | HNC 0xc07c…79a0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $5,111 | $455 | 0.23 | gateD:liq $5111 < $10000 |
| 18:50 | PONSATHON 0x1710…37be | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:50 | KIMCHI 0xc090…3779 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 122 | $47,266 | $17,634 | 1.77 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:48 | ELIZABAO 0x91e0…bd79 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 152 | $123,638 | $56,949 | 1.97 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:47 | BROS 0x28dd…3814 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 83 | $63,281 | $18,321 | 2.86 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:47 | BROS 0x9db5…d2ff | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 247 | $9,461 | $9,109 | 1.13 | gateD:liq $9461 < $10000 |
| 18:46 | ELIZABAO 0x5f4e…1e47 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 324 | $44,769 | $179,589 | 0.85 | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 |
| 18:41 | UPS 0x48bc…c3da | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 203 | $37,512 | $27,268 | 0.58 | gateD:buy/sell 0.58 < 1.5 |
| 18:38 | UPS 0x09df…66d8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 115 | $107,956 | $25,418 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:37 | SLABR 0x363b…9f09 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 335 | $6,059 | $4,340 | 0.37 | gateD:liq $6059 < $10000 |
| 18:35 | INVESTOR 0x6612…3881 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $51,590 | $24,700 | 1.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:34 | LAPTOP 0xe936…d467 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $39,226 | $11,181 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:34 | ARROWSHOT 0x2383…1466 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $37,640 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 100 |
| gateD:features | 45 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 38 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 38 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 37 |
| gateD:liq | 29 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 24 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 24 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 22 |
| gateD:vol5 | 15 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:sellSim | 4 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
339 refusals checked at +1h so far. 25 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 275 | -9.6% | 12 |
| filterC | 64 | +20.2% | 13 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 | udog | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -3.5% | -3.4% |
| 19:30 | STONKNFT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +19.8% | +13.4% |
| 19:30 | PUSHEEN | gateD:liq $6086 < $10000 | h1 | -63.1% | -39.2% |
| 19:30 | POPCORN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:30 | TRADES | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -14.8% | -7.7% |
| 19:30 | POPCORN | gateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5 | h1 | +111.3% | +43.1% |
| 19:15 | UDOGE | gateD:liq $6010 < $10000 | h1 | +3.5% | +2.5% |
| 19:15 | NIKE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +17.8% | +12.4% |
| 19:00 | yuppie | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -83.1% | -59.1% |
| 19:00 | NIKE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:00 | Ucat | gateD:liq $8048 < $10000 | h1 | -17.5% | -13.0% |
| 19:00 | JUST | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +21.5% | +14.7% |
| 19:00 | PLOT | gateD:vol5 $1156 < $5000 | h1 | -9.2% | -8.8% |
| 18:45 | Anthropic | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18:45 | BZZ | gateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5 | h1 | -73.6% | -48.5% |
| 18:45 | PUSHEEN | gateD:vol5 $533 < $5000 | h1 | -11.6% | -11.2% |
| 18:45 | ASHIBA | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | +58.4% | +25.9% |
| 18:45 | Pusheen | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 | h1 | -42.6% | -24.3% |
| 18:45 | nub | gateD:liq $3673 < $10000 | h1 | +5.7% | +2.6% |
| 18:45 | LUWAMA | gateD:liq $5581 < $10000 | h1 | -3.5% | -1.5% |
| 18:30 | SGD | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18:30 | BZZ | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +13.8% | +8.9% |
| 18:30 | HOODLAND | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 | h1 | -72.4% | -48.6% |
| 18:30 | HOODLAND | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -77.0% | -100.0% |
| 18:15 | USDE | gateD:liq $6327 < $10000 | h1 | -42.3% | -24.0% |
| 18:15 | USDE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| 18:15 | NVIDIA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18:15 | Coca Cola | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18:15 | Knight | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +28.7% | +19.7% |
| 18:15 | CDRM | gateD:liq $4435 < $10000 | h1 | -11.4% | -11.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)