Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 17:26 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
16.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 2s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 3s ago ok
Socket events 21,356 · failsafes 9 · errors 9
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 7,813 rpc · 2,172 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
13,619
launches seen
→
634
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
62
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 12,682 · gate D 551 · filter C 62 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.70 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1592 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:24 | OPAII 0x7f3a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 91 | $23,765 | $1,181 | 0.09 | gateD:vol5 $1181 < $5000 |
| 17:23 | EXAMCN 0xb94d…21d7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 119 | $45,222 | $47,152 | 0.83 | gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5 |
| 17:21 | OPAI 0x4d6f…8d31 | pons-v2 | 42 | $6,644 | $38 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $6644 < $10000 |
| 17:19 | OPAL 0xf79b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $21,348 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:19 | OPAI 0x07f1…cdb2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $1,072 | $5,711 | 1.27 | gateD:liq $1072 < $10000 |
| 17:17 | OPAI 0x3925…b16c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $40,360 | $10,759 | 2.05 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:14 | OPAI 0x7325…15a6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $0 | $1,504 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 17:14 | OPAI 0xc0b3…8217 | pons-v2 | 34 | $76,170 | $485,895 | 0.86 | gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5 |
| 17:14 | OPAI 0xbb22…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 127 | $24,154 | $11,370 | 1.20 | gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5 |
| 17:13 | OVC 0x7046…c645 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $29,327 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:11 | FORGE 0x61d3…625a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 126 | $87,163 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:11 | OPAI 0x95fd…36e7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 144 | $96,653 | $40,472 | 2.04 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:09 | BLACKHOLE 0x24be…6bc1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 89 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:05 | Democratism 0x6804…6fad | pons-v2 | 73 | $3 | $0 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3 < $10000 |
| 17:04 | back 0xa260…f4b8 | pons-v2 | 39 | $5,099 | $380 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5099 < $10000 |
| 17:03 | Democratism 0x06b1…2b0f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 126 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:58 | CTO 0x241c…4125 | pons-v2 | 29 | $20,061 | $87,124 | 1.28 | gateD:buy/sell 1.28 < 1.5 |
| 16:57 | Democratism 0xa55e…6e77 | pons-v2 | 51 | $6,529 | $6,421 | 0.76 | gateD:liq $6529 < $10000 |
| 16:56 | Stunks 0x8d20…986a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $38,490 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:56 | CTO 0x995e…5874 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 176 | $131,257 | $59,322 | 1.90 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:54 | BLACKHOLE 0x8814…8ebe | pons-v2 | 30 | $23,790 | $21,332 | 1.14 | gateD:buy/sell 1.14 < 1.5 |
| 16:53 | DIGITALOIL 0x03ff…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $41,512 | $8,178 | 1.01 | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 |
| 16:52 | Cody 0xabd9…a36e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $114,960 | $15,058 | 2.29 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:50 | Cody 0x5217…ff5c | pons-v2 | 110 | $8,753 | $21,904 | 0.76 | gateD:liq $8753 < $10000 |
| 16:48 | GC 0x9224…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $82,805 | $1,196 | 0.92 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 16:46 | MCHO 0x3169…6f51 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $49,784 | $14,124 | 1.88 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:43 | MCHO 0xb219…3c8c | pons-v2 | 55 | $8,150 | $6,536 | 0.56 | gateD:liq $8150 < $10000 |
| 16:39 | SFM 0xfe7f…6062 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $64,004 | $27,034 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:37 | NEKOART 0xcbc9…e50f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $6,948 | $1 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $6948 < $10000 |
| 16:33 | ZKVENICE 0xbbc3…db06 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:32 | MICROHOOD 0x7cc1…9ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 107 | $18,211 | $1,563 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $1563 < $5000 |
| 16:32 | Neuralconvo 0x50ab…0dfa | pons-v2 | 68 | $14,686 | $26,337 | 1.34 | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 |
| 16:31 | ELOGE 0x2f33…3f62 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $52,806 | $8,911 | 1.89 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:26 | COIN 0x387a…2a59 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $93,401 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:26 | ZKVENICE 0x9287…2310 | pons-v2 | 27 | $17,047 | $13,099 | 1.53 | filterC:sellSim |
| 16:26 | MIKA 0xa4f9…3ab4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $26,327 | $14,875 | 1.32 | gateD:buy/sell 1.32 < 1.5 |
| 16:19 | COIN 0x9539…ec1d | pons-v2 | 87 | $6,838 | $1,253 | 1.14 | gateD:liq $6838 < $10000 |
| 16:17 | MCRO 0x89d4…9b34 | pons-v2 | 40 | $9,912 | $6,504 | 1.21 | gateD:liq $9912 < $10000 |
| 16:17 | MSFT 0xe932…2e74 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $841,223 | $99,857 | 0.92 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 16:10 | Microhood 0x5e52…4fb4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 145 | $116,398 | $91,369 | 2.12 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 297 |
| gateD:features | 75 |
| gateD:liq | 62 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 49 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 48 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 48 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 46 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 44 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 35 |
| gateD:vol5 | 19 |
| C:sellSim | 14 |
| missed the window | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:copycat | 2 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 2 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1486 refusals checked at +1h so far. 139 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1178 | -8.3% | 62 |
| filterC | 305 | +50.7% | 77 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:15 | COOK | gateD:liq $3079 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | ENDSZ | gateD:vol5 $3808 < $5000 | d1 | +909.2% | +228.2% |
| 17:15 | THRU | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | STONKFLY | gateD:vol5 $26 < $5000 | d1 | +33.0% | +29.8% |
| 17:15 | BOB | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -40.4% | -34.6% |
| 17:15 | OVC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -24.7% | -20.8% |
| 17:15 | BOB | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -89.4% | -67.2% |
| 17:15 | OVC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:15 | Microhood | gateD:liq $4327 < $10000 | h1 | -10.7% | -5.5% |
| 17:15 | Microhood | gateD:buy/sell 1.23 < 1.5 | h1 | +110.6% | +45.1% |
| 17:15 | GAMECAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:15 | Microhood | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -83.7% | -100.0% |
| 17:00 | PDOG | gateD:liq $4261 < $10000 | h1 | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| 17:00 | SPACESHIP | gateD:liq $7599 < $10000 | d1 | -73.8% | -48.8% |
| 17:00 | hands | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:00 | ROVE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:00 | CATWASH | gateD:liq $7947 < $10000 | h1 | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| 17:00 | EMBER | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +330.4% | +168.8% |
| 17:00 | Flame | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:00 | Bob | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +90.2% | +43.5% |
| 17:00 | FLYTOK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:00 | Bob | gateD:buy/sell 1.21 < 1.5 | h1 | -29.0% | -15.7% |
| 16:45 | VERSE | gateD:liq $5310 < $10000 | d1 | -16.9% | -8.8% |
| 16:45 | MARIO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -24.5% | -16.4% |
| 16:45 | DOK | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +13.0% | +8.6% |
| 16:45 | DOK | gateD:liq $9 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:45 | Sweater | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:30 | ROVE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:30 | MARIO | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | +1635.4% | +311.9% |
| 16:30 | Lie | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +91.8% | +51.7% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)