Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 09:30 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 3s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 4s ago ok
Socket events 12,397 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,896 rpc · 1,102 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
7,644
launches seen
→
372
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
32
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 7,122 · gate D 336 · filter C 32 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.37 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1471 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:28 | ASS 0x5d79…1ad0 | pons-v2 | 26 | $16,448 | $30,041 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 09:25 | FGAY 0x70ca…296c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 177 | $30,101 | $8,712 | 1.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:08 | SERVER 0xf323…e24d | pons-v2 | 27 | $8,754 | $1,681 | 1.89 | gateD:liq $8754 < $10000 |
| 09:08 | eliza 0x3993…d10d | pons-v2 | 28 | $7,035 | $21,245 | 1.32 | gateD:liq $7035 < $10000 |
| 09:01 | WIRE 0xca3e…cfb9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 182 | $54,073 | $19,268 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 08:48 | RICH 0xe66c…2d2e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 273 | $47,121 | $2,961 | 1.18 | gateD:vol5 $2961 < $5000 |
| 08:41 | RICH 0x66f4…ff84 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 124 | $10,892 | $6,192 | 1.51 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 08:35 | BEAN 0x6b86…3144 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $28,359 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:34 | Rialto 0xe0fb…b7c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 409 | $82,593 | $107,449 | 1.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 08:30 | BEAN 0xe481…04a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $32,638 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:20 | COMPANY 0xdebb…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $21,276 | $2,182 | 1.31 | gateD:vol5 $2182 < $5000 |
| 08:19 | Galaxy 0xd76c…3c80 | pons-v2 | 26 | $7,591 | $1,755 | 1.56 | gateD:liq $7591 < $10000 |
| 08:19 | COMPANY 0x8bd5…75f2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $68,643 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:17 | COMPANY 0xcdc2…e7b5 | pons-v2 | 28 | $26,308 | $51,600 | 1.27 | gateD:buy/sell 1.27 < 1.5 |
| 08:17 | FLYKILLER 0x3eb9…16d1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:14 | LAMBO 0x3ef3…3063 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $0 | $0 | 1.40 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 08:14 | COMPANY 0x247f…2021 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 292 | $74,666 | $20,721 | 2.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 08:14 | jar 0x767c…dd53 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $32,437 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:10 | SBN 0x2f28…e89b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 72 | $3,208 | $288 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 08:10 | CANVASFLY 0x8d9b…c5d1 | pons-v2 | 23 | $12,857 | $6,148 | 0.80 | gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5 |
| 08:10 | SBN 0xfeb5…a726 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $61,494 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:03 | FLYKILLER 0xd7db…f252 | pons-v2 | 40 | $20,030 | $60,520 | 1.02 | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 |
| 07:58 | CORN 0x453f…dbf3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $15,718 | $1,088 | 2.50 | gateD:vol5 $1088 < $5000 |
| 07:58 | FlappyFly 0x7b58…3ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $11,829 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:56 | AI16ZZZ 0x3897…5bc2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $56,713 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:54 | FFC 0x80f9…30d2 | pons-v2 | 27 | $13,465 | $6,965 | 0.49 | gateD:buy/sell 0.49 < 1.5 |
| 07:51 | IDGAFF 0x60de…0693 | pons-v2 | 32 | $14,913 | $4,636 | 35.00 | gateD:vol5 $4636 < $5000 |
| 07:50 | FFC 0x89b9…aaf8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $43,154 | $6,331 | 4.75 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:48 | FlyFUND 0xebcd…4a8c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 189 | $51,521 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:47 | FISHBRAIN 0xe385…587b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 139 | $107,919 | $36,303 | 2.14 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:44 | SUBLE 0x5708…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $21,849 | $15 | 0.75 | gateD:vol5 $15 < $5000 |
| 07:43 | thiswill 0xf2b2…ae87 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $46,364 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:42 | FlyFUND 0x72ff…7433 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 149 | $47,661 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:42 | BRAIN 0x1f72…f001 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 169 | $5,437 | $393 | 1.22 | gateD:liq $5437 < $10000 |
| 07:40 | FLY 0x03bc…075d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $15,522 | $1,156 | 1.40 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 07:39 | flyrooms 0xe4c4…8eb8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 108 | $70,080 | $45,311 | 1.59 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:39 | FISHBRAIN 0xf6ae…e6e4 | pons-v2 | 50 | $16,002 | $24,781 | 1.53 | filterC:sellSim |
| 07:39 | OMI 0x3277…0c75 | pons-v2 | 25 | $6,687 | $7,369 | 0.40 | gateD:liq $6687 < $10000 |
| 07:39 | thiswill 0xfd65…d501 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 188 | $6,026 | $16,873 | 0.64 | gateD:liq $6026 < $10000 |
| 07:27 | flywheel 0x8541…1f99 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $83,445 | $21,243 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 173 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 43 |
| gateD:features | 41 |
| gateD:liq | 32 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 28 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 21 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 21 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 19 |
| gateD:vol5 | 14 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 14 |
| C:sellSim | 11 |
| missed the window | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 3 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1389 refusals checked at +1h so far. 124 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1105 | -8.9% | 55 |
| filterC | 281 | +51.7% | 69 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:15 | RETIRE | +5m honeypot veto: 21 buys and 0 sells | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 09:15 | FLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -93.5% | -84.8% |
| 09:15 | MEAT | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 | d1 | -96.4% | -81.4% |
| 09:15 | FLYKILLER | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 | h1 | -92.2% | -72.0% |
| 09:15 | SBN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:15 | SBN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -22.3% | -11.8% |
| 09:15 | CANVASFLY | gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5 | h1 | -15.4% | -8.0% |
| 09:15 | jar | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:15 | COMPANY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +5.8% | +3.7% |
| 09:15 | LAMBO | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 09:00 | IDGAFF | gateD:vol5 $4636 < $5000 | h1 | +45.3% | +20.5% |
| 09:00 | FFC | gateD:buy/sell 0.49 < 1.5 | h1 | -50.8% | -29.9% |
| 09:00 | AI16ZZZ | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:00 | FlappyFly | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:00 | CORN | gateD:vol5 $1088 < $5000 | h1 | -65.1% | -52.3% |
| 09:00 | 24k | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -46.9% | -100.0% |
| 09:00 | 24k | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 09:00 | FLYBRAIN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 09:00 | FISHBRAIN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -12.5% | -8.0% |
| 09:00 | FlyFUND | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:00 | FFC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +27.8% | +19.8% |
| 08:45 | JVMI | gateD:buy/sell 0.45 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 08:45 | 24K | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -69.8% | -45.9% |
| 08:45 | DARTH | gateD:vol5 $32 < $5000 | d1 | -8.7% | -8.4% |
| 08:45 | FISHBRAIN | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -77.6% | -52.7% |
| 08:45 | OMI | gateD:liq $6687 < $10000 | h1 | -67.5% | -43.0% |
| 08:45 | thiswill | gateD:liq $6026 < $10000 | h1 | -32.2% | -29.7% |
| 08:45 | flyrooms | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -9.2% | -6.4% |
| 08:45 | FLY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -1.9% | +29.3% |
| 08:45 | BRAIN | gateD:liq $5437 < $10000 | h1 | -16.8% | -15.3% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)