Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 03:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$64.72
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$32.36
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
3.6h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 5s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 14s ago ok
Socket events 8,859 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,534 rpc · 461 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

6,077
launches seen
174
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
10
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
2
opened

Refused: gate B 5,579 · gate D 157 · filter C 8 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2020-$64.72-$32.36
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (2)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
02:5303:00MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147Gold v210.7m8m1.06xstop-$35.19-70.4%B:30 buyers · D:liq $17919 vol5 $5480 b/s 1.95 · C:allowlist · single ticket
02:1202:20COMPUTER 0xc236…7293Gold v211.5m8m1.00xstop-$29.53-59.1%B:24 buyers · D:liq $22758 vol5 $99785 b/s 1.57 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set240not yet
Running days0.155not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$64.72> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%0%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 621 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
03:25PIZZA 0x956e…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad24$28,693$2,2641.05gateD:vol5 $2264 < $5000
03:25RECEIPT 0xb97d…34eeuniswap-v4-launchpad98$52,398$14,1501.96gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
03:09MAGA 0x25d3…e299pons-v254$6,144$4210.25gateD:liq $6144 < $10000
03:02OCTN 0xc7c1…43dcuniswap-v4-launchpad258$17,016$62,3691.39gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5
02:55sat 0x796f…1d01uniswap-v4-launchpad26$4,363$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:53MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147pons-v230$17,919$5,4801.95ADMITTED
02:51REAL 0x153c…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad21$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:51SHARO 0x6d6c…151fpons-v249$12,047$9,3121.28gateD:buy/sell 1.28 < 1.5
02:48unipcs 0xdb7e…dee8uniswap-v4-launchpad70$54,276$10,3822.33filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
02:30OYIRA 0xf4bd…aacepons-v226$4,732$90.00gateD:liq $4732 < $10000
02:26FLY 0xc2ec…4c4funiswap-v4-launchpad223$118,467$32,0131.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
02:19COMPUTER 0xe3aa…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad148$29,181$1861.67gateD:vol5 $186 < $5000
02:19COMPUTER 0x12a9…6721pons-v242$4,050$130.00gateD:liq $4050 < $10000
02:12FLY 0x4d0e…60f3pons-v272$19,021$9,2071.93filterC:sellSim
02:12COMPUTER 0xc236…7293pons-v224$22,758$99,7851.57ADMITTED
02:12Mooncoin 0x4bdd…e044uniswap-v4-launchpad37$34,466$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:10HOODCOIN 0x508e…01b8pons-v295$5,728$4750.25gateD:liq $5728 < $10000
02:06NYSE 0x8336…a293uniswap-v4-launchpad56$47,165$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:04COW 0x003c…e2a1uniswap-v4-launchpad27$7,095$3,2560.86gateD:liq $7095 < $10000
02:02Apes 0x1d63…e398pons-v285$7,512$69,4261.04gateD:liq $7512 < $10000
01:59うさぎ 0x82a9…dbaauniswap-v4-launchpad182$21,460$11,3791.34gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5
01:51CHALK 0xb4c3…c099uniswap-v4-launchpad42$21,044$1,2431.50gateD:vol5 $1243 < $5000
01:49Cass 0xc48b…01dcuniswap-v4-launchpad74$48,692$8,1472.31filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:44Cass 0x531e…350buniswap-v4-launchpad699$17,744$75,3441.00gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5
01:43LG 0x3fa5…8133pons-v234$4,390$50.00gateD:liq $4390 < $10000
01:40vran 0x4c92…b0ddpons-v228$13,134$4,9790.92gateD:vol5 $4979 < $5000
01:36arena0 0x3205…aba3uniswap-v4-launchpad231$23,017$6,0310.83gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5
01:35Melvin 0x2986…dc32uniswap-v4-launchpad92$5,803$1,7540.13gateD:liq $5803 < $10000
01:35Melvin 0x8b27…aeb3uniswap-v4-launchpad39$5,191$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:30Melvin 0xee6e…492duniswap-v4-launchpad109$5,946$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:27Mevlin 0x40c3…0365uniswap-v4-launchpad97$5,967$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:26CRYPTO 0x862a…6330uniswap-v4-launchpad79$2,998$6110.86gateD:liq $2998 < $10000
01:23unc 0x0818…aad6uniswap-v4-launchpad46$5,469$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:20CATT 0x8fc6…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad45$50,820$3,2651.54gateD:vol5 $3265 < $5000
01:20NAC 0x7511…3444uniswap-v4-launchpad33$5,830$621.00gateD:liq $5830 < $10000
01:17CHIPS 0x8fc6…f8a1pons-v235$10,091$7,9851.54filterC:sellSim
01:15VEEFO 0x9ed2…eba3uniswap-v4-launchpad24$9,031$7323.00gateD:liq $9031 < $10000
01:145 0xa788…f53buniswap-v4-launchpad45$12,123$2,1811.31gateD:vol5 $2181 < $5000
01:14APPL 0x31e3…370duniswap-v4-launchpad23$5,782$246gateD:liq $5782 < $10000
01:10Cramer 0xd094…a48euniswap-v4-launchpad181$13,596$34,3331.69filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool90
gateD:liq21
gateD:features15
gateD:buy/sell11
gateD:poolMismatch11
gateD:vol59
C:notV2VsWeth6
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager6
C:creatorShareUnknown6
C:sellSim2
C:swapsH1<2502
C:liquidityUnder$250001

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

589 refusals checked at +1h so far. 46 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD482-11.0%21
filterC106+79.2%25
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
03:30AQUgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1+3.5%+2.0%
03:30EQUITYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-98.1%-86.6%
03:30ZCATgateD:liq $6032 < $10000d1-62.5%-54.8%
03:30POOPCOINgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
03:30ZCATgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
03:30SHOPIFYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
03:30FIREgateD:liq $6207 < $10000d1-58.8%-36.1%
03:30ZDOGgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-0.1%n/a
03:30NASTYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-4.0%-3.3%
03:30PANEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
03:30COMPUTERgateD:vol5 $186 < $5000h1-8.8%-7.6%
03:30COMPUTERgateD:liq $4050 < $10000h1-6.0%-3.0%
03:30FLYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-88.0%-79.0%
03:15SUPERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
03:15SHOPIFYfilterC:sellSimStaled1-94.3%-78.3%
03:15OSRgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+2.3%+2.3%
03:15DOGEgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-35.8%-33.1%
03:15ApesgateD:liq $7512 < $10000h1-50.8%-29.9%
03:15COWgateD:liq $7095 < $10000h1-46.6%-42.2%
03:15NYSEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
03:15HOODCOINgateD:liq $5728 < $10000h1-21.8%-11.6%
03:15MooncoingateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
03:15FLYfilterC:sellSimh1-95.4%-78.6%
03:15PANEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
03:00SPREADgateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5d1n/an/a
03:00VEEFgateD:liq $0 < $10000d1-0.3%n/a
03:00KERFgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-16.1%-8.6%
03:00SUPERfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-3.2%-2.0%
03:00CassfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-11.8%-9.3%
03:00CHALKgateD:vol5 $1243 < $5000h1-85.0%-61.3%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)