Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 21:22 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Live status LIVE
Funnel this run
Refused: gate B 10,989 · gate D 296 · filter C 54 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 4 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | -$305.22 | -$33.91 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (9)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:50 | 19:21 | PEPEGOLD 0x19f3…d91b | Gold v2 | 10.4m | 31m | 1.32x | stop | -$50.72 | -50.7% | B:99 buyers · D:liq $26193 vol5 $13163 b/s 1.67 · C:allowlist · size-up:99 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 17:57 | 18:01 | TUTANKHAMOOLAH 0x608f…d394 | Gold v2 | 13m | 4m | 1.89x | trail | $6.87 | +13.7% | B:37 buyers · D:liq $18337 vol5 $50604 b/s 1.59 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 16:49 | 16:57 | NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6 | Gold v2 | 12.1m | 8m | 1.03x | confirm_bail | -$7.52 | -15.0% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17463 vol5 $9057 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 16:08 | 16:17 | Fork 0xa5fd…a71e | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 9m | 1.26x | stop | -$46.24 | -92.5% | B:45 buyers · D:liq $17793 vol5 $9026 b/s 1.53 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:43 | 13:13 | BNTR 0x12d1…68bb | Gold v2 | 11.3m | 90m | 1.36x | max_hold | $0.70 | +1.4% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:51 | 11:54 | BUROS 0x1901…ace6 | Gold v2 | 10m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$55.00 | -55.0% | B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:29 | 11:31 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$65.65 | -65.7% | B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 10:57 | 11:03 | Oilinu 0x54b7…d06c | Gold v2 | 13.5m | 6m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.94 | -53.9% | B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 10:50 | 10:53 | CHIPR 0x6a80…9469 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$60.72 | -60.7% | B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 9 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.45 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$305.22 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 22% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 947 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:21 | etn 0x6e7a…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 195 | $16,232 | $414 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $414 < $5000 |
| 21:18 | psyopcat 0xf55f…16b8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 164 | $8,013 | $1,209 | 4.60 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:18 | PCAT 0x6fb2…d137 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 105 | $4,866 | $14 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $4866 < $10000 |
| 21:18 | STOCKTOKEN 0x9fd2…c275 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 70 | $5,734 | $16,700 | 0.68 | gateD:liq $5734 < $10000 |
| 21:16 | STOCKTOKEN 0x8ecc…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $27,888 | $268 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $268 < $5000 |
| 21:16 | DUO 0x8c76…5ce9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $4,859 | $30 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4859 < $10000 |
| 21:14 | Apes 0xd7fe…9266 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $41,580 | $1,075 | 1.20 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:13 | COGN 0x98e5…8ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $8,961 | $25 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $8961 < $10000 |
| 21:11 | DUO 0xaaf8…8120 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 797 | $12,296 | $12,584 | 0.76 | gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5 |
| 21:10 | WZAI 0x0db8…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 218 | $30,583 | $2,673 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $2673 < $5000 |
| 21:10 | Duo 0x454d…4d39 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $3,818 | $47 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3818 < $10000 |
| 21:10 | IDUO 0x0cd7…be00 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 241 | $6,962 | $774 | 1.43 | gateD:liq $6962 < $10000 |
| 21:09 | DUO 0xf320…0b47 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $100,009 | $47,177 | 1.58 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:07 | OWNERSHIP 0xddf5…c2e3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 230 | $5,810 | $21 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5810 < $10000 |
| 21:07 | OWNERSHIP 0x7016…cac7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 178 | $5,250 | $64 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5250 < $10000 |
| 21:04 | DEPTH 0x96cb…2295 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $12,870 | $930 | 0.40 | gateD:vol5 $930 < $5000 |
| 21:03 | UNCODED 0xf669…7f3f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $10,508 | $2,398 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $2398 < $5000 |
| 21:03 | KIRK 0xb0f8…2acb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 408 | $6,343 | $1,965 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $6343 < $10000 |
| 21:01 | Bliss 0xfb65…ea12 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $52,249 | $29,858 | 1.60 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:01 | GBOT 0x651c…0bc9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 247 | $6,585 | $4,943 | 0.26 | gateD:liq $6585 < $10000 |
| 20:57 | GS 0x4dc4…a47a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 591 | $8,160 | $1,140 | 1.63 | gateD:liq $8160 < $10000 |
| 20:57 | GS 0x9c06…119b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 504 | $18,056 | $15,705 | 0.90 | gateD:buy/sell 0.90 < 1.5 |
| 20:57 | SACKS 0x46e4…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $20,984 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:57 | HEY 0xb33e…b610 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 196 | $18,060 | $5,044 | 1.12 | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 |
| 20:57 | HOT 0x4597…16ff | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 429 | $18,634 | $32,942 | 0.73 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:57 | GS 0x4578…a032 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 95 | $4,374 | $119 | gateD:liq $4374 < $10000 | |
| 20:55 | ESOK 0x40a3…8652 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $8,511 | $133 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:54 | CLUBY 0x7f26…c376 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 241 | $29,794 | $30,508 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 20:54 | PONSTREET 0x58a6…07d1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $3,846 | $69 | 2.00 | gateD:liq $3846 < $10000 |
| 20:54 | iRENT 0xfdba…c97b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 69 | $6,083 | $2,536 | 0.92 | gateD:liq $6083 < $10000 |
| 20:53 | DART 0x70a9…7b92 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $11,628 | $1,547 | 2.13 | gateD:vol5 $1547 < $5000 |
| 20:52 | ASCEND 0xdbdb…541d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 91 | $55,853 | $8,646 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:52 | IRENT 0xa755…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $20,946 | $27 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $27 < $5000 |
| 20:49 | TRUMP 0x2a0e…3701 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $8,966 | $530 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:47 | $HZTDONUT 0xcb05…ca46 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $63,022 | $23,202 | 2.25 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:47 | BOXCAT 0x1fea…bceb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $41,690 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:47 | TRIPLET 0x9a80…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $175,545 | $9,386 | 0.30 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:47 | ASCEND 0x8525…99cd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 72 | $15,587 | $17,789 | 1.07 | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 |
| 20:47 | BITCOIN 0x1dd5…a178 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 288 | $17,098 | $5,677 | 0.46 | gateD:buy/sell 0.46 < 1.5 |
| 20:43 | EMPEROR 0x5745…a95a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $6,516 | $245 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $6516 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 110 |
| gateD:liq | 53 |
| gateD:features | 50 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 43 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 43 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 43 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 33 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 28 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 27 |
| gateD:vol5 | 23 |
| C:sellSim | 7 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
850 refusals checked at +1h so far. 69 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 684 | -7.9% | 30 |
| filterC | 165 | +61.2% | 39 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:15 | Hoodlana | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +64.5% | +41.6% |
| 21:15 | ROADSTER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:15 | AMERICA | gateD:liq $6950 < $10000 | d1 | -63.5% | -39.6% |
| 21:15 | SWEEP | gateD:liq $5777 < $10000 | d1 | -28.6% | -15.1% |
| 21:15 | FUNDS | gateD:liq $4770 < $10000 | d1 | -3.0% | -1.1% |
| 21:15 | Gauntlet | gateD:liq $5085 < $10000 | d1 | -10.9% | -5.5% |
| 21:15 | STONK | gateD:liq $5972 < $10000 | d1 | -29.8% | -15.3% |
| 21:15 | DOO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -16.9% | -16.1% |
| 21:15 | doom | gateD:liq $5079 < $10000 | h1 | -10.8% | -9.3% |
| 21:00 | ZDOG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +7.0% | +7.0% |
| 21:00 | DFC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +151.0% | +88.7% |
| 21:00 | VIBECAT | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 | d1 | -83.8% | -59.6% |
| 21:00 | S&P500 | gateD:liq $5413 < $10000 | d1 | -49.9% | -29.6% |
| 21:00 | dividends | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -92.0% | -71.7% |
| 21:00 | SA | gateD:liq $5679 < $10000 | d1 | -49.1% | -28.6% |
| 21:00 | pdom | gateD:liq $7800 < $10000 | h1 | -30.7% | -16.8% |
| 21:00 | cat | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | doom | gateD:buy/sell 1.08 < 1.5 | h1 | +121.5% | +48.9% |
| 21:00 | BOXCAT | gateD:liq $3661 < $10000 | h1 | -7.1% | -3.5% |
| 20:45 | ROBI NHOOD | gateD:liq $7003 < $10000 | d1 | -70.4% | -45.5% |
| 20:45 | BURISMA | gateD:vol5 $2484 < $5000 | d1 | -80.0% | -55.2% |
| 20:45 | XMRCAT | gateD:vol5 $37 < $5000 | d1 | -14.7% | -14.4% |
| 20:45 | SPECS | gateD:liq $7693 < $10000 | d1 | -32.2% | -17.8% |
| 20:45 | Godot | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 20:45 | TAO | gateD:vol5 $62 < $5000 | h1 | +2.8% | +3.7% |
| 20:45 | Carly | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +104.8% | +63.9% |
| 20:45 | HOODINU | gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5 | d1 | -93.0% | -73.5% |
| 20:30 | VEEF | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | d1 | -0.5% | n/a |
| 20:30 | KOL | gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5 | d1 | -94.4% | -76.2% |
| 20:30 | ARCT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -29.9% | -17.5% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)