Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 19:30 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$305.22
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
9
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$33.91
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.9h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 48s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 49s ago ok
Socket events 14,458 · failsafes 6 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,926 rpc · 1,137 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
10,178
launches seen
→
283
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
51
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
9
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
9
opened
Refused: gate B 9,555 · gate D 228 · filter C 42 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 4 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | -$305.22 | -$33.91 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (9)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:50 | 19:21 | PEPEGOLD 0x19f3…d91b | Gold v2 | 10.4m | 31m | 1.32x | stop | -$50.72 | -50.7% | B:99 buyers · D:liq $26193 vol5 $13163 b/s 1.67 · C:allowlist · size-up:99 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 17:57 | 18:01 | TUTANKHAMOOLAH 0x608f…d394 | Gold v2 | 13m | 4m | 1.89x | trail | $6.87 | +13.7% | B:37 buyers · D:liq $18337 vol5 $50604 b/s 1.59 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 16:49 | 16:57 | NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6 | Gold v2 | 12.1m | 8m | 1.03x | confirm_bail | -$7.52 | -15.0% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17463 vol5 $9057 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 16:08 | 16:17 | Fork 0xa5fd…a71e | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 9m | 1.26x | stop | -$46.24 | -92.5% | B:45 buyers · D:liq $17793 vol5 $9026 b/s 1.53 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:43 | 13:13 | BNTR 0x12d1…68bb | Gold v2 | 11.3m | 90m | 1.36x | max_hold | $0.70 | +1.4% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:51 | 11:54 | BUROS 0x1901…ace6 | Gold v2 | 10m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$55.00 | -55.0% | B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:29 | 11:31 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$65.65 | -65.7% | B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 10:57 | 11:03 | Oilinu 0x54b7…d06c | Gold v2 | 13.5m | 6m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.94 | -53.9% | B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 10:50 | 10:53 | CHIPR 0x6a80…9469 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$60.72 | -60.7% | B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 9 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.37 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$305.22 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 22% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 878 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:27 | SSEED 0x6391…2b4e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 145 | $95,931 | $41,694 | 1.78 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:24 | TCORGI 0xca5d…dd10 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $63,461 | $34,534 | 1.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:21 | STARTUP 0x7f67…5f33 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $3,231 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:21 | ND4 0xea71…0549 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $54,009 | $21,165 | 1.78 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:20 | ARCT 0xe168…bbe9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $42,558 | $9,546 | 1.31 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:12 | QI 0xdd92…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $48,627 | $6,127 | 0.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:11 | DEFLY 0x0603…2034 | pons-v2 | 27 | $5,929 | $1,044 | 4.00 | gateD:liq $5929 < $10000 |
| 19:11 | PICKLES 0xa1b5…e34c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 221 | $85,132 | $23,041 | 2.19 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:10 | Asset 0x39e0…f8f4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $48,186 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:09 | Asset 0x3c7a…9bc6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 224 | $62,469 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:06 | pdom 0xfcf3…d2e2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $43,716 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:05 | GIGGLES 0xdc41…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $27,497 | $3,892 | 1.67 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:04 | Asset 0xa803…8c43 | pons-v2 | 59 | $6,848 | $4,110 | 0.92 | gateD:liq $6848 < $10000 |
| 19:04 | MSFT 0xe932…2e74 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $701,506 | $21,977 | 6.35 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:02 | SuperOctopus420 0x9029…3931 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $40,819 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:01 | DATADOG 0x51e4…76e9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $42,536 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:57 | Arc 0xeb6b…ccf8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $64,620 | $22,425 | 2.06 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:53 | RAMCOlN 0x28b4…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 85 | $20,737 | $5 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $5 < $5000 |
| 18:50 | PEPEGOLD 0x19f3…d91b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $26,193 | $13,163 | 1.67 | ADMITTED |
| 18:44 | INFR 0xc3b1…2ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $11,287 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:40 | PLOG 0xeb65…c365 | pons-v2 | 22 | $6,762 | $4,171 | 0.97 | gateD:liq $6762 < $10000 |
| 18:38 | DLPH 0x1cae…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $9,370 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:37 | LOXLEY 0xf38d…4b15 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 158 | $119,531 | $60,037 | 1.95 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:37 | CEREBRO 0xeb24…9c4b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $26,955 | $674 | 0.67 | gateD:vol5 $674 < $5000 |
| 18:35 | HODL 0xd612…bbbb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 84 | $8,562 | $2,808 | 0.09 | gateD:liq $8562 < $10000 |
| 18:33 | CEREBRO 0x1988…d8c3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 207 | $83,858 | $43,832 | 1.72 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:33 | HODL 0xe5e9…bbbb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 226 | $4,406 | $75 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4406 < $10000 |
| 18:30 | TAX 0xd2f8…bbbb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 189 | $4,902 | $1,827 | 0.40 | gateD:liq $4902 < $10000 |
| 18:30 | DATADOG 0x0275…3dd7 | pons-v2 | 52 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:27 | STRATTON 0xb7ea…8360 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $115,424 | $19,173 | 1.69 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 18:26 | Kotlin 0xcaf5…3116 | pons-v2 | 51 | $5 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:24 | HELLO 0xfcb3…68f8 | pons-v2 | 216 | $19,469 | $26,482 | 2.17 | filterC:sellSim |
| 18:24 | COLLECTIBLE 0x2ad7…6127 | pons-v2 | 30 | $5,146 | $6,040 | 1.31 | gateD:liq $5146 < $10000 |
| 18:20 | cardboard 0xccd3…d15f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 143 | $92,388 | $75,549 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 18:19 | QUBOCOIN 0xa41e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $23,346 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:19 | QUBO 0x9dfe…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $21,145 | $8 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $8 < $5000 |
| 18:17 | QUBO 0x0b72…1c4e | pons-v2 | 28 | $9,056 | $9,589 | 0.63 | gateD:liq $9056 < $10000 |
| 18:17 | IBM 0x980d…9619 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $284,041 | $9,472 | 0.70 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 18:17 | REC 0x6ff2…bbea | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $57,543 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 18:14 | CAMPOS 0x07af…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $30,430 | $2,567 | 0.69 | gateD:vol5 $2567 < $5000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 99 |
| gateD:features | 40 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 32 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 32 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 32 |
| gateD:liq | 31 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 26 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 18 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 18 |
| gateD:vol5 | 14 |
| C:sellSim | 6 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
801 refusals checked at +1h so far. 61 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 647 | -8.1% | 28 |
| filterC | 153 | +62.5% | 33 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:15 | BEE | gateD:vol5 $3434 < $5000 | d1 | -31.9% | -27.9% |
| 19:15 | INF | gateD:liq $5304 < $10000 | d1 | -32.4% | -17.8% |
| 19:15 | URANUS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | MET | gateD:liq $3485 < $10000 | h1 | -2.9% | -2.9% |
| 19:15 | KRC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:15 | MMC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +283.6% | +141.5% |
| 19:15 | Jacob | gateD:vol5 $3712 < $5000 | h1 | -21.5% | -11.4% |
| 19:15 | RABBIT | gateD:liq $5882 < $10000 | h1 | -26.6% | -24.2% |
| 19:15 | ASTEROID | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +30.2% | +14.6% |
| 19:15 | CAMPOS | gateD:vol5 $2567 < $5000 | h1 | -15.7% | -13.5% |
| 19:15 | CTO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:15 | ORIKA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -5.9% | -5.8% |
| 19:15 | GPTHEIST | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 | d1 | -87.4% | -64.5% |
| 19:15 | CLUB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -8.8% | -7.8% |
| 19:15 | UBIK | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.6% | -19.4% |
| 19:00 | BROS | gateD:liq $9461 < $10000 | d1 | -81.2% | -56.8% |
| 19:00 | BROS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +2.1% | +1.4% |
| 19:00 | ELIZABAO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -61.3% | -45.6% |
| 19:00 | KIMCHI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -87.5% | -65.6% |
| 19:00 | PONSATHON | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 19:00 | HNC | gateD:liq $5111 < $10000 | d1 | -13.8% | -7.1% |
| 19:00 | CHOOD | gateD:vol5 $394 < $5000 | d1 | -19.6% | -18.6% |
| 19:00 | WSG | gateD:vol5 $1068 < $5000 | d1 | -88.2% | -65.6% |
| 19:00 | COLLECTIBLE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -16.3% | -8.5% |
| 19:00 | MEMES | gateD:liq $8770 < $10000 | h1 | -69.2% | -44.5% |
| 19:00 | MEMES | gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:00 | ROBERT | gateD:vol5 $1950 < $5000 | h1 | -87.1% | -63.6% |
| 19:00 | GUAVA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19:00 | Moolah | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -51.4% | -32.8% |
| 19:00 | ROBERT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)