Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 01:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
3.0h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 17s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 4,812 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 861 rpc · 179 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

3,620
launches seen
55
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
5
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 3,338 · gate D 46 · filter C 5 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.125not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 991 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
01:25SHROOM 0xab09…5b29uniswap-v4-launchpad23$331,861$2,0390.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:22🍏 0x8c0d…8e3cuniswap-v4-launchpad23$8,747$2,5310.34gateD:liq $8747 < $10000
01:22MIRAGEFI 0x6d39…f42euniswap-v4-launchpad27$10,518$198gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000
01:17BATWIF 0x67c1…627auniswap-v4-launchpad26$1,346$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:09ROB 0xbfbb…8f04uniswap-v4-launchpad65$50,307$14,1392.67filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:04Billycoin 0x1e73…f022uniswap-v4-launchpad58$52,469$22,6271.67filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:02WORKS 0x918c…b854uniswap-v4-launchpad26$13,195$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:02vell 0x3275…be9cuniswap-v4-launchpad37$40,986$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
00:57ROB 0x497f…1348pons-v228$9,106$8,0631.15gateD:liq $9106 < $10000
00:53ponzi 0xf586…0e4buniswap-v4-launchpad42$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
00:51BROS 0xc6e4…486dpons-v277$9$4gateD:liq $9 < $10000
00:41AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9uniswap-v4-launchpad27$312,940$20,9711.03gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
00:39FIDO 0xe8ea…4701uniswap-v4-launchpad33$4,530$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
00:37FIDO 0x57a1…2a4dpons-v222$1$30.00gateD:liq $1 < $10000
00:35FIDO 0x77e0…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad157$30,683$3,5381.34gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
00:33MOOF 0xdf21…ab55pons-v245$8,617$40,0780.88gateD:liq $8617 < $10000
00:21anon 0x3e3e…ef44uniswap-v4-launchpad64$59,719$22,1042.12filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
00:17USDG 0x5fc5…d168uniswap-v4-launchpad80$382,231$22,3041.22gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
00:01CLOCKERS 0xefc0…6ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad76$65,005$100.50gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
23:52AFTER 0xb766…e76duniswap-v4-launchpad25$37,133$10,0850.72gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
23:23baton 0xd20e…5b7auniswap-v4-launchpad40$55,184$20,7422.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
23:15GRASS 0x1639…f84buniswap-v4-launchpad50$111,057$4,3260.91gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
23:09DGAME 0x7aaf…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad39$28,865$5,3100.59gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
23:04SPY 0x117c…4c0cuniswap-v4-launchpad31$2,090,570$34,5760.34gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:55HAIRBALLS 0xbbde…0511uniswap-v4-launchpad60$7,754$1,7570.87gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:55STM 0xcf34…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad25$24,679$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:52SLAWTH 0x9ee4…8b8buniswap-v4-launchpad51$61,679$21,5372.29filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
22:52CLUBY 0x7f26…c376uniswap-v4-launchpad43$47,084$15,7201.02gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:52AI 0x2e8c…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad28$5,257,492$41,0700.15gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:52NVDA 0xd060…9eecuniswap-v4-launchpad31$8,374,524$96,3840.45gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:45HOOD 0x3321…588funiswap-v4-launchpad256$7,082$7,7290.98gateD:liq $7082 < $10000
21:42XLG 0xae0b…cf8duniswap-v4-launchpad73$92,342$24,9431.65filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:42JOZ 0xa244…2cbdpons-v240$4,984$1961.00gateD:liq $4984 < $10000
21:42QUBT 0x8e5e…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad36$20,750$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:40Course 0xa9b8…46f3uniswap-v4-launchpad29$56,181$15,2042.06filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
21:36MARIO 0x5faa…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad29$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:36WEALTH 0x4aa6…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad40$20,863$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
21:36ZORA 0x3344…d09euniswap-v4-launchpad39$5,518$3780.50gateD:liq $5518 < $10000
21:31SKYNET 0x3406…d906uniswap-v4-launchpad49$48,246$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
21:31Transfer 0x774a…4ad0pons-v234$5,031$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool20
gateD:poolMismatch13
gateD:liq6
gateD:features6
C:notV2VsWeth5
C:swapsH1<2505
C:creatorShareUnknown5
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager4
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1
gateD:vol51

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

913 refusals checked at +1h so far. 74 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD737-8.7%32
filterC175+59.1%42
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
01:15🖖gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5d1-95.1%-78.3%
01:15SPACEMOONgateD:liq $4881 < $10000d1-14.2%-13.7%
01:15911gateD:liq $5083 < $10000d1-0.9%-0.8%
01:15CramerfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-84.4%-58.6%
01:15APPLgateD:liq $5782 < $10000d1-11.0%-10.4%
01:155gateD:vol5 $2181 < $5000d1-73.9%-63.6%
01:15CLOCKERSgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-32.4%-22.4%
01:15CRUMBSgateD:liq $4809 < $10000d1-6.8%-3.8%
01:00AIBUBBLEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+3.0%+3.0%
01:00NOTEgateD:buy/sell 0.82 < 1.5d1+34.4%+1628.9%
01:00🖖gateD:liq $5330 < $10000d1-52.0%-30.7%
01:005gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-1.8%-1.8%
01:00🖖gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
01:00AFTERgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-81.5%-57.0%
01:00KIBAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+36.6%-99.1%
00:45NOSECONDBESTgateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5d1-91.1%-70.5%
00:45INCENTIFIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-96.8%-82.2%
00:45USDGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-0.0%-65.4%
00:45SPACEHOODgateD:liq $6306 < $10000d1-3.4%-2.7%
00:45SENDgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-15.1%-15.1%
00:45SPRHgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-75.6%-50.7%
00:45sGPUgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+1.6%+1.0%
00:45ZASHgateD:vol5 $1240 < $5000d1-90.7%-69.5%
00:45AHOOgateD:liq $7833 < $10000d1-64.0%-57.2%
00:45BOXYgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-21.3%-12.3%
00:30RBLTgateD:buy/sell 0.11 < 1.5d1n/an/a
00:30CRUMBSgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
00:30HOODCITYgateD:buy/sell 0.88 < 1.5d1n/an/a
00:30onchaingateD:liq $5594 < $10000d1n/an/a
00:30TESTLAUNCHgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1n/an/a

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)