Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 03:16 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
4.8h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 2s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 5s ago ok
Socket events 7,077 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,751 rpc · 450 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
5,136
launches seen
→
88
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
10
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 4,854 · gate D 74 · filter C 10 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.20 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1003 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:13 | BRDY 0x884b…c6c5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 120 | $57,203 | $25,717 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:07 | VEEFO 0xcbbf…bba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $7,409 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:59 | IRA 0x32ae…9304 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $62,588 | $30,129 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:59 | AGI 0x101c…8be5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 204 | $25,421 | $25,067 | 1.92 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:53 | DUO 0x234b…04dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $68,363 | $34,530 | 1.60 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:42 | Jacob 0x3df3…06f1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $95,697 | $8,700 | 2.24 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 02:15 | rob 0x8c56…7b0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $36,280 | $17,323 | 1.95 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:57 | PONS 0x39db…4571 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $5,700,701 | $97 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 01:49 | YIELD 0x5b2c…7515 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $6,169 | $277 | 1.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:49 | NU 0x408c…e250 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $55,825 | $5,249 | 0.82 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:39 | FUCK 0x0f3b…84c3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $9,688 | $5,166 | 5.86 | gateD:liq $9688 < $10000 |
| 01:36 | I 0xa94e…8889 | pons-v2 | 32 | $20,605 | $19,476 | 1.35 | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 |
| 01:25 | SHROOM 0xab09…5b29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $331,861 | $2,039 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:22 | 🍏 0x8c0d…8e3c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $8,747 | $2,531 | 0.34 | gateD:liq $8747 < $10000 |
| 01:22 | MIRAGEFI 0x6d39…f42e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $10,518 | $198 | gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000 | |
| 01:17 | BATWIF 0x67c1…627a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $1,346 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:09 | ROB 0xbfbb…8f04 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $50,307 | $14,139 | 2.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:04 | Billycoin 0x1e73…f022 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $52,469 | $22,627 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:02 | WORKS 0x918c…b854 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $13,195 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:02 | vell 0x3275…be9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $40,986 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:57 | ROB 0x497f…1348 | pons-v2 | 28 | $9,106 | $8,063 | 1.15 | gateD:liq $9106 < $10000 |
| 00:53 | ponzi 0xf586…0e4b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:51 | BROS 0xc6e4…486d | pons-v2 | 77 | $9 | $4 | gateD:liq $9 < $10000 | |
| 00:41 | AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $312,940 | $20,971 | 1.03 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:39 | FIDO 0xe8ea…4701 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $4,530 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:37 | FIDO 0x57a1…2a4d | pons-v2 | 22 | $1 | $3 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $1 < $10000 |
| 00:35 | FIDO 0x77e0…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 157 | $30,683 | $3,538 | 1.34 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:33 | MOOF 0xdf21…ab55 | pons-v2 | 45 | $8,617 | $40,078 | 0.88 | gateD:liq $8617 < $10000 |
| 00:21 | anon 0x3e3e…ef44 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $59,719 | $22,104 | 2.12 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 00:17 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 80 | $382,231 | $22,304 | 1.22 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:01 | CLOCKERS 0xefc0…6ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 76 | $65,005 | $10 | 0.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:52 | AFTER 0xb766…e76d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $37,133 | $10,085 | 0.72 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:23 | baton 0xd20e…5b7a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $55,184 | $20,742 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:15 | GRASS 0x1639…f84b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $111,057 | $4,326 | 0.91 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:09 | DGAME 0x7aaf…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $28,865 | $5,310 | 0.59 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:04 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $2,090,570 | $34,576 | 0.34 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:55 | HAIRBALLS 0xbbde…0511 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $7,754 | $1,757 | 0.87 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:55 | STM 0xcf34…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $24,679 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:52 | SLAWTH 0x9ee4…8b8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $61,679 | $21,537 | 2.29 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:52 | CLUBY 0x7f26…c376 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $47,084 | $15,720 | 1.02 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 41 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 17 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 10 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 10 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 9 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 9 |
| gateD:liq | 7 |
| gateD:features | 7 |
| C:copycat | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| gateD:vol5 | 1 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
936 refusals checked at +1h so far. 77 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 757 | -8.4% | 33 |
| filterC | 178 | +61.2% | 44 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:15 | OCTN | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 | d1 | -88.5% | -66.2% |
| 03:15 | MAGA | gateD:liq $6144 < $10000 | d1 | -58.6% | -36.1% |
| 03:00 | unipcs | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:00 | REAL | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:00 | SHARO | gateD:buy/sell 1.28 < 1.5 | d1 | -90.3% | -68.9% |
| 03:00 | sat | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:00 | NU | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.5% | +3.3% |
| 03:00 | YIELD | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -18.8% | -9.7% |
| 03:00 | PONS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +3.5% | +2.9% |
| 02:45 | OYIRA | gateD:liq $4732 < $10000 | d1 | -19.1% | -10.1% |
| 02:45 | I | gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5 | h1 | -77.6% | -53.1% |
| 02:45 | FUCK | gateD:liq $9688 < $10000 | h1 | +211.9% | +87.3% |
| 02:30 | BATWIF | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| 02:30 | MIRAGEFI | gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000 | h1 | -39.5% | -22.0% |
| 02:30 | 🍏 | gateD:liq $8747 < $10000 | h1 | +5.4% | +3.0% |
| 02:30 | SHROOM | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +19.4% | +9.3% |
| 02:30 | COMPUTER | gateD:vol5 $186 < $5000 | d1 | -13.3% | -11.5% |
| 02:30 | COMPUTER | gateD:liq $4050 < $10000 | d1 | -5.9% | -3.0% |
| 02:30 | FLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -88.0% | -79.0% |
| 02:15 | Apes | gateD:liq $7512 < $10000 | d1 | -72.7% | -47.8% |
| 02:15 | COW | gateD:liq $7095 < $10000 | d1 | -54.7% | -50.9% |
| 02:15 | NYSE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 02:15 | HOODCOIN | gateD:liq $5728 < $10000 | d1 | -39.2% | -22.0% |
| 02:15 | Mooncoin | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 02:15 | FLY | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -95.9% | -80.0% |
| 02:15 | vell | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02:15 | WORKS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02:15 | Billycoin | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +70.8% | +45.0% |
| 02:15 | ROB | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +431.4% | +194.4% |
| 02:00 | CHALK | gateD:vol5 $1243 < $5000 | d1 | -93.2% | -74.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)