Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 13:14 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
14.7h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 8s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 8s ago ok
Socket events 16,448 · failsafes 8 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 6,652 rpc · 1,949 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
11,175
launches seen
→
293
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
35
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 10,716 · gate D 251 · filter C 34 · vetoed 1 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $6.14 | $6.14 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.61 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $6.14 | > $0 | met |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 100% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1097 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:07 | Unicoin 0x590f…686a | pons-v2 | 65 | $20,802 | $67,282 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 13:06 | pokepad 0xba1f…4f99 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 165 | $53,927 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:05 | Unicoin 0x0308…b15c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $16,417 | $6,094 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:04 | pokepad 0xfb5e…f23a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $39,142 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:01 | API 0xe0b8…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $4,128 | $4,603 | 1.87 | gateD:liq $4128 < $10000 |
| 12:56 | DMT 0x87a1…1863 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $41,585 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:55 | DMT 0xfea7…ad33 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $92,445 | $39,029 | 2.10 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:37 | BCC 0xfc3c…17a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 199 | $54,704 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:35 | DART 0x70a9…7b92 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $11,218 | $1,552 | 0.58 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:34 | RXT 0x7f32…ce7d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 156 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:30 | CYBERBEER 0x3388…75c7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 106 | $28,764 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:24 | CYBERBEER 0x26eb…83a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $24,548 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:39 | FEET 0x68bf…fdb9 | pons-v2 | 85 | $6,206 | $3 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $6206 < $10000 |
| 11:27 | FEET 0xcd6c…6708 | pons-v2 | 71 | $10,336 | $58,821 | 1.09 | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 |
| 11:21 | BURNTEST 0x3314…1ea0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 107 | $73,620 | $31,896 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 11:08 | OS 0xe4e1…5cea | pons-v2 | 30 | $20,250 | $64,852 | 1.07 | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 |
| 10:57 | QUNEK 0x6486…1ce1 | pons-v2 | 101 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:51 | SCOOP 0x491d…1e24 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $13,166 | $2,203 | 0.76 | gateD:vol5 $2203 < $5000 |
| 10:35 | BALLOON 0x0a3d…efb3 | pons-v2 | 74 | $15,625 | $21,752 | 1.39 | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 |
| 10:01 | SleepCoin 0x78aa…ed61 | pons-v2 | 103 | $34,662 | $166,678 | 1.12 | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 |
| 09:55 | DRAFT 0x5be0…187a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 80 | $43,701 | $16,223 | 7.18 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:33 | MEAT 0x29b6…3adf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 119 | $67,523 | $19,821 | 1.42 | gateD:buy/sell 1.42 < 1.5 |
| 09:27 | Moo 0xd10e…b115 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $32,208 | $5,454 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:20 | MEAT 0x84ea…b6d9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $70,605 | $26,238 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:12 | MEAT 0x3709…4333 | pons-v2 | 59 | $22,122 | $70,812 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 09:11 | FLY 0x0072…1224 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $39,066 | $26,775 | 1.68 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 09:01 | RETIRE 0xda41…efc5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $44,493 | $0 | +5m honeypot veto: 21 buys and 0 sells | |
| 08:52 | FLYBRAIN 0x2541…446b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $15,518 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:49 | 24k 0x6817…955c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 188 | $36,488 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:49 | 24k 0x149a…f4fe | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $44,813 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:39 | DARTH 0x04d2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $22,658 | $32 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $32 < $5000 |
| 08:34 | 24K 0xdfac…0e7b | pons-v2 | 38 | $15,889 | $8,900 | 1.66 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 08:30 | JVMI 0x7631…c3cb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 170 | $25,176 | $28,448 | 0.45 | gateD:buy/sell 0.45 < 1.5 |
| 08:24 | STOATRADE 0x4c21…34f2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $16,749 | $6,006 | 0.70 | gateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5 |
| 08:21 | BRIAN 0x2cca…7ccc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $8,451 | $31 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $8451 < $10000 |
| 08:19 | BRIAN 0xbc9a…93be | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $47,724 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:15 | BRIAN 0x2e9d…6e02 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $3,958 | $178 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3958 < $10000 |
| 08:00 | VC 0x4437…926a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 181 | $63,250 | $27,311 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:48 | PRELIST 0xcbcd…e059 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $72,464 | $5,743 | 17.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:48 | brian 0xf98a…522e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $7,009 | $6,017 | 0.57 | gateD:liq $7009 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 150 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 29 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 29 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 26 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 26 |
| gateD:features | 24 |
| gateD:liq | 22 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 21 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 20 |
| gateD:vol5 | 8 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 3 |
| C:copycat | 3 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 2 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
| veto:+5m zero sells | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1024 refusals checked at +1h so far. 88 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 817 | -9.3% | 35 |
| filterC | 205 | +59.9% | 53 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 2 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | TradeX | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +33.6% | +18.1% |
| 13:00 | TradeX | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -28.4% | -19.2% |
| 12:45 | FEET | gateD:liq $6206 < $10000 | h1 | -14.4% | -7.5% |
| 12:30 | O1BOT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -15.2% | -8.7% |
| 12:30 | fruitfly | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:30 | WSB | gateD:liq $6234 < $10000 | d1 | -47.2% | -27.4% |
| 12:30 | WSB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:30 | Plinkons | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:30 | ROBINHASH | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:30 | AUGUR | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +38.4% | -100.0% |
| 12:30 | BURNTEST | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | h1 | -7.3% | -5.0% |
| 12:30 | FEET | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 | h1 | -65.1% | -42.0% |
| 12:15 | AUGUR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:15 | PYO | gateD:liq $5475 < $10000 | d1 | -29.9% | -17.3% |
| 12:15 | fruitfly | gateD:buy/sell 1.50 < 1.5 | d1 | -97.1% | -83.3% |
| 12:15 | OS | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 | h1 | -38.7% | -21.6% |
| 12:00 | COINFLIP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:00 | VEEF | gateD:vol5 $489 < $5000 | d1 | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 12:00 | SCOOP | gateD:vol5 $2203 < $5000 | h1 | +47.0% | +21.3% |
| 12:00 | QUNEK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11:45 | NEKO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:45 | AAPL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +0.4% | +17.8% |
| 11:45 | ROBINHASH | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:45 | ROBINRANGE | gateD:vol5 $1871 < $5000 | d1 | +318.4% | +102.5% |
| 11:45 | BALLOON | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 | h1 | -79.5% | -54.7% |
| 11:30 | CLAWDHOOD | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -91.4% | -70.7% |
| 11:30 | PAIRFORGE | gateD:liq $8199 < $10000 | d1 | -63.9% | -40.6% |
| 11:30 | Hoper | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 | d1 | -93.7% | -74.9% |
| 11:30 | NEKO | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -95.5% | -78.8% |
| 11:15 | ODYSSEY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)