Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 07:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$157.22
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
7
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.46
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
7.5h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 20s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 15,693 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,438 rpc · 1,058 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
10,494
launches seen
→
285
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
25
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
7
opened
Refused: gate B 9,971 · gate D 254 · filter C 18 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -$157.22 | -$22.46 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (7)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:03 | 05:11 | SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18 | Gold v2 | 12.7m | 8m | 1.01x | confirm_bail | -$11.50 | -11.5% | B:82 buyers · D:liq $22882 vol5 $6464 b/s 1.90 · C:allowlist · size-up:83 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 04:45 | 04:49 | DRILL 0x5455…b884 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$34.94 | -69.9% | B:52 buyers · D:liq $11658 vol5 $9900 b/s 1.99 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:29 | 04:39 | OS 0x1b9b…d4c4 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 10m | 1.33x | stop | -$25.77 | -51.5% | B:52 buyers · D:liq $14701 vol5 $7390 b/s 1.69 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:03 | 04:07 | FABCOIN 0x7bbc…d309 | Gold v2 | 15.1m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.82 | -53.6% | B:27 buyers · D:liq $18816 vol5 $5562 b/s 2.12 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 03:36 | 03:54 | Mischief 0xe68d…1340 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 18m | 1.87x | trail | $6.53 | +13.1% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $13119 vol5 $6638 b/s 1.55 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:53 | 03:00 | MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 8m | 1.06x | stop | -$35.19 | -70.4% | B:30 buyers · D:liq $17919 vol5 $5480 b/s 1.95 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:12 | 02:20 | COMPUTER 0xc236…7293 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 8m | 1.00x | stop | -$29.53 | -59.1% | B:24 buyers · D:liq $22758 vol5 $99785 b/s 1.57 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 7 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.31 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$157.22 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 14% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 676 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:22 | ASI 0xa484…73af | pons-v2 | 76 | $17,787 | $23,143 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 07:20 | Jacob 0x02f8…44a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 500 | $24,024 | $25,824 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 07:17 | Jacob 0x352a…dfd0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 178 | $154,465 | $38,176 | 3.04 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:16 | ZOE 0x9b17…c13f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 154 | $36,287 | $53,783 | 1.06 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 07:04 | Gregory 0xa4d1…019c | pons-v2 | 63 | $9,005 | $14,213 | 1.06 | gateD:liq $9005 < $10000 |
| 07:02 | BOILER 0x4bfe…13ba | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 127 | $87,124 | $52,810 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:59 | TURRET 0x593c…9b88 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 113 | $62,297 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:54 | Veil 0x36cf…f5f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $35,270 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:47 | ZOE 0x7bd3…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $58,943 | $1,887 | 0.64 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:44 | PLUM 0xbd23…08b7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 136 | $97,914 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:34 | TOILET 0xfee1…8e43 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 161 | $83,755 | $21,049 | 0.91 | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 |
| 06:25 | DESK 0xecc0…453a | pons-v2 | 28 | $20,888 | $23,423 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 06:16 | CANDLE 0x0bcd…9c0e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $33,400 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:16 | CANDLE 0xff21…718f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $73,704 | $31,226 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:10 | CANDLE 0xe330…d13e | pons-v2 | 43 | $12,001 | $15,162 | 0.67 | gateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5 |
| 06:09 | Pixorama 0xbebb…1a9f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 183 | $91,710 | $42,326 | 0.83 | gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5 |
| 05:56 | RSTR 0x78b9…025d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $212,988 | $5,021 | 0.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:49 | GARY 0x77ff…addd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $32,315 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:49 | Basilisk 0x14c1…9fcc | pons-v2 | 61 | $13,253 | $31,911 | 1.26 | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 |
| 05:49 | GARY 0x7506…238e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $33,584 | $15,254 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:42 | GARY 0xc6f8…dab4 | pons-v2 | 94 | $3 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:41 | Jacob 0x3b09…6a21 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $23,129 | $36,633 | 1.76 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:36 | REBEL 0x0eb7…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $25,917 | $117 | 0.50 | gateD:vol5 $117 < $5000 |
| 05:28 | TREE 0x3ec6…d124 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 244 | $175,452 | $59,377 | 3.30 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:21 | B6PW 0x1813…dc25 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 158 | $62,872 | $1,621 | 30.00 | gateD:vol5 $1621 < $5000 |
| 05:19 | NCLD 0x65a9…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $47,117 | $15,056 | 0.72 | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 |
| 05:19 | TREE 0x40c4…98ac | pons-v2 | 48 | $30,017 | $143,185 | 1.10 | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 |
| 05:17 | tip 0x2f1e…8545 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 81 | $21,579 | $9,197 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:11 | SHOPPY 0x83c2…2201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $7,019 | $1,055 | 2.20 | gateD:liq $7019 < $10000 |
| 05:09 | THC 0x19c2…991d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 179 | $117,100 | $35,322 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:05 | Swagcat 0x7d24…9ab1 | pons-v2 | 25 | $5,130 | $72 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5130 < $10000 |
| 05:04 | SHOPCAT 0x2dfa…3628 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $48,215 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:04 | Glasses 0x3fa8…d0ab | pons-v2 | 20 | $5,679 | $185 | 3.00 | gateD:liq $5679 < $10000 |
| 05:03 | SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $22,882 | $6,464 | 1.90 | ADMITTED |
| 05:02 | CRIB 0x5776…5b51 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $7,247 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:57 | SHOPCAT 0x268d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 565 | $115,854 | $106,869 | 0.94 | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 |
| 04:45 | PLXMS 0x76b8…d566 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $7,556 | $518 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:45 | DRILL 0x5455…b884 | pons-v2 | 52 | $11,658 | $9,900 | 1.99 | ADMITTED |
| 04:43 | ZKSWAP 0x91f9…bdb0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $27,813 | $4,889 | 1.17 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:43 | SHROOM 0xab09…5b29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $363,161 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 147 |
| gateD:liq | 26 |
| gateD:features | 25 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 24 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 18 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 15 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 15 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 14 |
| gateD:vol5 | 14 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 8 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 3 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 1 |
| C:ownerEoa | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
| C:sellSimStale | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
634 refusals checked at +1h so far. 51 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 519 | -9.2% | 23 |
| filterC | 114 | +85.8% | 28 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:15 | LIQUITITTY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +38.2% | +23.5% |
| 07:15 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 07:15 | Pixorama | gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:15 | CANDLE | gateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5 | h1 | -86.3% | -63.1% |
| 07:00 | QFMM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 07:00 | STRIKE | gateD:liq $3770 < $10000 | d1 | -4.4% | -2.2% |
| 07:00 | LIQUITITTY | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 | d1 | -87.1% | -58.9% |
| 07:00 | GARY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +123.0% | +85.8% |
| 07:00 | GARY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 | Basilisk | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | h1 | +216.4% | +77.9% |
| 07:00 | RSTR | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -8.0% | -4.2% |
| 06:45 | BISCOTTI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +20.4% | +9.9% |
| 06:45 | REMEMBER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -26.3% | -24.7% |
| 06:45 | PAINT | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | d1 | -92.2% | -72.2% |
| 06:45 | REBEL | gateD:vol5 $117 < $5000 | h1 | -19.6% | -18.6% |
| 06:45 | Jacob | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -90.5% | -79.1% |
| 06:45 | GARY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06:30 | WHEEL | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | d1 | +14.5% | +8.5% |
| 06:30 | STBL | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:30 | AP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -41.7% | -26.8% |
| 06:30 | ARTON | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -11.9% | -8.4% |
| 06:30 | tip | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +1116.0% | +334.4% |
| 06:30 | TREE | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 | h1 | -45.8% | -26.4% |
| 06:30 | NCLD | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 | h1 | +9.7% | +7.2% |
| 06:30 | B6PW | gateD:vol5 $1621 < $5000 | h1 | -7.5% | -4.2% |
| 06:30 | TREE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -93.8% | -85.7% |
| 06:15 | PARABOLA | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:15 | FYNNEL | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:15 | CRIB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| 06:15 | Glasses | gateD:liq $5679 < $10000 | h1 | -29.5% | -16.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)