Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 11:38 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
11.0h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 16s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 14,597 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 4,952 rpc · 1,417 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

9,120
launches seen
446
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
39
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 8,549 · gate D 400 · filter C 39 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.465not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1506 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
11:36HASHTOWN 0xbe00…ce11uniswap-v4-launchpad124$77,792$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:13EMILE 0x80fe…c8fauniswap-v4-launchpad122$62,737$20,2721.52filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:05AGI 0xf793…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad378$3,366$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:03Bullions 0x108c…c265uniswap-v4-launchpad27$19,615$2,5611.56gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000
11:02AGI 0xa058…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad166$3,275$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:02ei 0x2634…5acauniswap-v4-launchpad98$73,256$8,7521.82filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:01FLLY 0x1f7f…1c01uniswap-v4-launchpad39$4,734$6020.00gateD:liq $4734 < $10000
10:59INU 0x8202…8ae6uniswap-v4-launchpad351$78,412$20,7151.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
10:49FRIES 0x54d3…32feuniswap-v4-launchpad51$0$00.85gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:45HIGHER 0xcf9b…5c7funiswap-v4-launchpad99$57$40.00gateD:liq $57 < $10000
10:43COPPERINU 0x2bbb…4e3funiswap-v4-launchpad52$8,609$2330.00gateD:liq $8609 < $10000
10:36WM 0x93ec…a773uniswap-v4-launchpad57$0$00.21gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:29WEED 0x24cb…c247uniswap-v4-launchpad61$0$00.00gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:26SCOUT 0x6aa5…2352uniswap-v4-launchpad73$20,354$5,2700.75gateD:buy/sell 0.75 < 1.5
10:24electricity 0xb3f7…dcf2uniswap-v4-launchpad146$58,760$8,9241.56filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
10:23FKH 0xbe1e…fc5duniswap-v4-launchpad82$12$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:22420 0x4b8e…7896uniswap-v4-launchpad34$0$07.58gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:15BULL 0xcbd8…0f4duniswap-v4-launchpad88$72$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:11BUFO 0xddd9…8e3duniswap-v4-launchpad65$34,183$13,9821.77filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
10:09FLOYD 0x3e1e…389buniswap-v4-launchpad86$0$00.29gateD:liq $0 < $10000
10:08WELD 0xaf0a…3d01uniswap-v4-launchpad62$4,014$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:07MUNCHIES 0x6f43…3737uniswap-v4-launchpad22$112$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:05BUFO 0x9582…2167uniswap-v4-launchpad27$6,245$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:05GRILL 0x9df0…1e4buniswap-v4-launchpad230$56$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
10:03ei 0x1b16…6104pons-v277$12$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
09:58TTT 0xcee5…303buniswap-v4-launchpad50$8,359$1,4370.60gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
09:57NUTS 0x9243…a895uniswap-v4-launchpad25$4,560$229gateD:liq $4560 < $10000
09:56LAMB 0x621a…05d8uniswap-v4-launchpad21$4,973$2761.00gateD:liq $4973 < $10000
09:56Townies 0x42ed…919euniswap-v4-launchpad64$5,645$50.00gateD:liq $5645 < $10000
09:44LIQUITITTY 0x2358…6a81uniswap-v4-launchpad25$0$02.70gateD:liq $0 < $10000
09:44FLYSWATTER 0x178d…7d45uniswap-v4-launchpad103$67,397$14,0781.64filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
09:38ASS 0x967e…bf63uniswap-v4-launchpad76$51,820$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
09:35PHARM 0x4e4a…14c2uniswap-v4-launchpad37$0$3gateD:liq $0 < $10000
09:32EASE 0x3151…fecbuniswap-v4-launchpad52$15,577$12,9831.94filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
09:32FLYSWATTER 0x1b85…5354pons-v245$0$05.00gateD:liq $0 < $10000
09:28ASS 0x5d79…1ad0pons-v226$16,448$30,0410.98gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5
09:25FGAY 0x70ca…296cuniswap-v4-launchpad177$30,101$8,7121.61filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
09:08SERVER 0xf323…e24dpons-v227$8,754$1,6811.89gateD:liq $8754 < $10000
09:08eliza 0x3993…d10dpons-v228$7,035$21,2451.32gateD:liq $7035 < $10000
09:01WIRE 0xca3e…cfb9uniswap-v4-launchpad182$54,073$19,2681.11gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool209
gateD:features52
gateD:liq46
gateD:poolMismatch44
gateD:buy/sell29
C:notV2VsWeth28
C:creatorShareUnknown28
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager26
C:swapsH1<25020
gateD:vol515
C:sellSim11
missed the window5
C:liquidityUnder$250004
C:tapeRatio>42
C:lpNotVerifiable:none2
C:copycat1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1427 refusals checked at +1h so far. 130 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD1137-8.5%58
filterC287+51.9%72
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
11:30BURNTESTgateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5d1+248.6%-100.0%
11:30FEETgateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5d1-77.6%-53.4%
11:30BULLgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
11:30420gateD:liq $0 < $10000h1n/an/a
11:30FKHgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
11:30electricityfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-14.8%-10.9%
11:30SCOUTgateD:buy/sell 0.75 < 1.5h1-5.5%-2.8%
11:30WEEDgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1n/an/a
11:15OSgateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5d1-92.3%-72.2%
11:15eigateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-56.3%+95672.7%
11:15GRILLgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+9.8%+152.2%
11:15BUFOgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-0.2%-0.2%
11:15MUNCHIESgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+296.8%-17.2%
11:15WELDgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+1.4%+1.4%
11:15FLOYDgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1n/an/a
11:15BUFOfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+199.2%+125.5%
11:00SCOOPgateD:vol5 $2203 < $5000d1-77.3%-52.4%
11:00QUNEKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-53.0%+830.8%
11:00LAMBgateD:liq $4973 < $10000h1-4.6%-3.2%
11:00TowniesgateD:liq $5645 < $10000h1-5.6%-5.5%
11:00NUTSgateD:liq $4560 < $10000h1+243.5%+142.9%
11:00TTTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-16.4%-8.5%
10:45BALLOONgateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5d1-93.3%-74.2%
10:45FLYSWATTERgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1-91.7%-100.0%
10:45EASEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+150.8%+70.9%
10:45PHARMgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1+175.8%n/a
10:45ASSgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
10:45FLYSWATTERfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+0.8%+0.6%
10:45LIQUITITTYgateD:liq $0 < $10000h1n/an/a
10:30FGAYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+51.9%-100.0%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)