Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 13:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
12.9h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 0s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 21s ago ok
Socket events 16,455 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 5,897 rpc · 1,658 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
10,405
launches seen
→
479
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
43
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 9,766 · gate D 431 · filter C 43 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.54 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1516 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:24 | Izzy 0x4afa…0590 | pons-v2 | 39 | $17 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:16 | Bagtone 0x0f62…1ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $9,186 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 13:05 | blue 0xa8c2…5f38 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 93 | $76,387 | $30,504 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 12:53 | PPILOT 0xf292…2b8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $70,631 | $34,166 | 1.53 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:39 | LIQ 0x29a9…7a80 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $22,518 | $29,718 | 1.57 | filterC:sellSim |
| 12:33 | QUORUM 0xc1db…bd8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 116 | $68,702 | $57,027 | 1.71 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:58 | TIDE 0xcbb0…4e9b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 77 | $47,790 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:46 | JETS 0xa011…9b9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $81,607 | $10,955 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:44 | Sprout 0x0d19…7f48 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $27,788 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:43 | SPOONBOT 0x45e4…8311 | pons-v2 | 55 | $7 | $10 | gateD:liq $7 < $10000 | |
| 11:36 | HASHTOWN 0xbe00…ce11 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 124 | $77,792 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:13 | EMILE 0x80fe…c8fa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 122 | $62,737 | $20,272 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:05 | AGI 0xf793…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 378 | $3,366 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:03 | Bullions 0x108c…c265 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $19,615 | $2,561 | 1.56 | gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000 |
| 11:02 | AGI 0xa058…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $3,275 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:02 | ei 0x2634…5aca | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 98 | $73,256 | $8,752 | 1.82 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:01 | FLLY 0x1f7f…1c01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $4,734 | $602 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4734 < $10000 |
| 10:59 | INU 0x8202…8ae6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 351 | $78,412 | $20,715 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:49 | FRIES 0x54d3…32fe | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $0 | $0 | 0.85 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:45 | HIGHER 0xcf9b…5c7f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $57 | $4 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $57 < $10000 |
| 10:43 | COPPERINU 0x2bbb…4e3f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $8,609 | $233 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $8609 < $10000 |
| 10:36 | WM 0x93ec…a773 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $0 | $0 | 0.21 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:29 | WEED 0x24cb…c247 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $0 | $0 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:26 | SCOUT 0x6aa5…2352 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $20,354 | $5,270 | 0.75 | gateD:buy/sell 0.75 < 1.5 |
| 10:24 | electricity 0xb3f7…dcf2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 146 | $58,760 | $8,924 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:23 | FKH 0xbe1e…fc5d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $12 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:22 | 420 0x4b8e…7896 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $0 | $0 | 7.58 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:15 | BULL 0xcbd8…0f4d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $72 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:11 | BUFO 0xddd9…8e3d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $34,183 | $13,982 | 1.77 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:09 | FLOYD 0x3e1e…389b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $0 | $0 | 0.29 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 10:08 | WELD 0xaf0a…3d01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $4,014 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:07 | MUNCHIES 0x6f43…3737 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $112 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:05 | BUFO 0x9582…2167 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $6,245 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:05 | GRILL 0x9df0…1e4b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 230 | $56 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:03 | ei 0x1b16…6104 | pons-v2 | 77 | $12 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 09:58 | TTT 0xcee5…303b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $8,359 | $1,437 | 0.60 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 09:57 | NUTS 0x9243…a895 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $4,560 | $229 | gateD:liq $4560 < $10000 | |
| 09:56 | LAMB 0x621a…05d8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $4,973 | $276 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4973 < $10000 |
| 09:56 | Townies 0x42ed…919e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $5,645 | $5 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5645 < $10000 |
| 09:44 | LIQUITITTY 0x2358…6a81 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $0 | $0 | 2.70 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 234 |
| gateD:features | 56 |
| gateD:liq | 47 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 44 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 31 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 31 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 30 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 29 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 23 |
| gateD:vol5 | 15 |
| C:sellSim | 12 |
| missed the window | 5 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1443 refusals checked at +1h so far. 130 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1149 | -8.5% | 58 |
| filterC | 291 | +51.2% | 72 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | pokepad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:30 | Unicoin | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +2496.8% | -100.0% |
| 13:30 | UNI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 13:30 | UNCN | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 | d1 | -75.9% | -66.4% |
| 13:15 | API | gateD:liq $4128 < $10000 | d1 | -65.3% | -57.7% |
| 13:15 | pokepad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:15 | Unicoin | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -0.7% | +6.2% |
| 13:15 | pokepad | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:15 | Unicoin | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | d1 | -96.1% | -80.3% |
| 13:00 | DMT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +36.2% | +21.2% |
| 13:00 | DMT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:00 | JETS | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13:00 | TIDE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:45 | RXT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -15.4% | n/a |
| 12:45 | DART | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -81.4% | -57.1% |
| 12:45 | BCC | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -86.3% | -100.0% |
| 12:45 | HASHTOWN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:45 | SPOONBOT | gateD:liq $7 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:45 | Sprout | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:45 | CYBERBEER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:30 | CYBERBEER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:15 | FLLY | gateD:liq $4734 < $10000 | h1 | -8.6% | -7.8% |
| 12:15 | ei | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:15 | AGI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 12:15 | Bullions | gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000 | h1 | -48.0% | -27.9% |
| 12:15 | AGI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +0.1% | -0.2% |
| 12:15 | EMILE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +6.8% | +4.7% |
| 12:00 | HIGHER | gateD:liq $57 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12:00 | FRIES | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 12:00 | INU | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +0.5% | +0.3% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)