Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 03:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
2.9h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 18s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 22s ago ok
Socket events 4,579 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,180 rpc · 322 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

2,906
launches seen
134
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
7
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 2,556 · gate D 112 · filter C 7 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.125not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1334 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
03:29MOLLY 0x7cec…012apons-v238$6,292$6,1300.67gateD:liq $6292 < $10000
02:36CUMMIES 0x4b08…1d43pons-v231$6,462$4200.75gateD:liq $6462 < $10000
02:36CPU 0x00c7…47b7pons-v234$37,764$39,2651.16gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5
02:36CPU 0x8eaa…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad155$23,364$3,6511.04gateD:vol5 $3651 < $5000
02:35Schrödinger 0x4c7b…129epons-v263$18,593$8,1172.14filterC:sellSim
02:28COOKWARE 0xb71b…cc4funiswap-v4-launchpad36$40,541$10,4950.57gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
02:26COCAINE 0xc1a7…d829pons-v230$6,166$2070.67gateD:liq $6166 < $10000
02:26SNOW 0xba0c…f47euniswap-v4-launchpad21$95,908$21,1000.06gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
02:22EDGE 0x9a6e…ff5auniswap-v4-launchpad58$15,928$10,1910.73gateD:buy/sell 0.73 < 1.5
02:19GERI 0xd795…8ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad94$18,152$1,4700.60gateD:vol5 $1470 < $5000
02:13LBGJ 0xbc6e…d66dpons-v294$14,730$49,1711.52filterC:sellSim
02:13LBGJ 0x4378…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad104$38,297$10,3000.94gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5
02:02BYCOCKET 0x75ea…baacuniswap-v4-launchpad38$94,047$17,1981.34gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:57CINDER 0xe137…7573uniswap-v4-launchpad161$24,464$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:56TFLY 0x9c4d…2034uniswap-v4-launchpad321$232,975$25,5202.30filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:55GOOGL 0x2e08…4fe3uniswap-v4-launchpad26$813,814$26,6731.48gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:53TITTIES 0xcda6…7441uniswap-v4-launchpad141$65$26gateD:liq $65 < $10000
01:50BIG 0xf821…98f2uniswap-v4-launchpad31$44$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:49GUAP 0xc1fa…2ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad20$17,215$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:44RIVN 0xb1bf…114buniswap-v4-launchpad63$205,834$1,529,7380.98gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:44RIVN 0x7344…7e01uniswap-v4-launchpad72$12,317$6581.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:43imdbot 0x4e28…b4ccuniswap-v4-launchpad64$137,365$14,2021.18gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:42PORK 0x874d…ed44uniswap-v4-launchpad35$6$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:42RIVN 0x6a4c…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad23$21,253$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:41RIDE 0x8b3e…17f8uniswap-v4-launchpad1507$45,346$57,9891.96filterC:sellSim
01:36CPR 0x2043…4551uniswap-v4-launchpad51$13,466$5,4065.91filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown
01:36PDOOM 0x6df5…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad365$137,187$80,1280.56gateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5
01:33FLYWHEEL 0x5587…56f9uniswap-v4-launchpad22$16,262$3,4410.95gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:29MIDORU 0xa111…ac04uniswap-v4-launchpad38$27,847$6,3692.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:29Nvidia 0xece9…10bdpons-v250$6,277$7,3180.41gateD:liq $6277 < $10000
01:28NVDA 0xd060…9eecuniswap-v4-launchpad35$7,354,168$66,0330.83gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:27LONG 0x39e6…ce97uniswap-v4-launchpad30$16,735$1,81011.00gateD:vol5 $1810 < $5000
01:23GERI 0x36ed…7815uniswap-v4-launchpad234$19,889$40,2171.35gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5
01:20TYLEE 0x03d4…dddduniswap-v4-launchpad22$5,266$486gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:17FLY 0x588e…f1e4uniswap-v4-launchpad63$36,255$11,4362.22filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:16CS6900 0x01b4…c9bbuniswap-v4-launchpad50$61$0gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:15FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35uniswap-v4-launchpad26$72,037$3,7811.11gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:14GME 0xc236…4ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad61$278,791$1,2190.88gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:14Stonkfly 0xc613…b148uniswap-v4-launchpad30$97,658$4,1941.11gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:13GME 0x1b0e…153euniswap-v4-launchpad57$671,139$55,5821.07gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool66
gateD:poolMismatch23
gateD:buy/sell8
gateD:liq6
gateD:features5
gateD:vol54
C:notV2VsWeth4
C:creatorShareUnknown4
C:swapsH1<2503
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager3
C:sellSim3
C:tapeRatio>42
C:copycat1
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1262 refusals checked at +1h so far. 117 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD1002-9.7%49
filterC257+57.8%68
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
03:30ROKOgateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5d1-87.0%-64.4%
03:30MIDORIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+65.1%+34.3%
03:30MIDORIgateD:liq $7499 < $10000d1-75.5%-50.8%
03:30GERIgateD:vol5 $1470 < $5000h10.0%0.0%
03:30EDGEgateD:buy/sell 0.73 < 1.5h1-43.6%-24.7%
03:30COCAINEgateD:liq $6166 < $10000h1-23.4%-12.5%
03:30SNOWgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.6%-8.2%
03:30COOKWAREgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-27.0%-12.9%
03:30MIDORIgateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5d1-86.8%-63.7%
03:15VEEFOgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-100.0%-100.0%
03:15BRDYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
03:15BYCOCKETgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+4.7%+2.5%
03:15LBGJfilterC:sellSimh1-73.1%-48.2%
03:15LBGJgateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5h1-33.7%-28.2%
03:00DUOfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+96.6%+57.2%
03:00AGIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-89.1%-79.9%
03:00IRAfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+161.6%+88.9%
03:00GUAPgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-42.6%-42.0%
03:00BIGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-22.0%-17.1%
03:00TITTIESgateD:liq $65 < $10000h1-68.6%+246.5%
03:00GOOGLgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+0.0%+0.3%
03:00TFLYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-26.3%-15.8%
03:00CINDERgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
02:45JacobgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-56.7%-34.2%
02:45FLYWHEELgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-63.4%-39.5%
02:45PDOOMgateD:buy/sell 0.56 < 1.5h1-70.6%-52.5%
02:45CPRfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownh1-58.3%-49.6%
02:45RIDEfilterC:sellSimh1-84.0%+22.7%
02:45PORKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+116.8%+46.9%
02:45RIVNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+22.1%+22.1%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)