Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 07:46 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$117.94
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
5
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$23.59
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.0h
since 08 Sept, 01:43 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 30s ago ok
Socket events 9,854 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,872 rpc · 888 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
6,073
launches seen
→
253
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
22
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
5
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
5
opened
Refused: gate B 5,655 · gate D 229 · filter C 17 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -$117.94 | -$23.59 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (5)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:50 | 05:37 | RVA 0x3d94…5b6d | Gold v2 | 11m | 48m | 1.25x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:49 buyers · D:liq $16976 vol5 $7952 b/s 1.65 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:20 | 04:23 | WWW 0x3a0e…ecf4 | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:33 buyers · D:liq $19090 vol5 $26407 b/s 1.62 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:13 | 03:23 | SWEEP 0x73f6…aed8 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 70m | 1.67x | trail | $9.08 | +9.1% | B:154 buyers · D:liq $14665 vol5 $9554 b/s 1.61 · C:allowlist · size-up:156 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 03:05 | 03:10 | Spyder 0x5f67…975c | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 5m | 1.12x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:28 buyers · D:liq $18500 vol5 $28097 b/s 1.56 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:10 | 02:13 | UNITY 0x1fc0…fa41 | Gold v2 | 14.4m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$50.28 | -50.3% | B:491 buyers · D:liq $14171 vol5 $13491 b/s 1.79 · C:allowlist · size-up:501 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 5 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.25 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$117.94 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 20% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 201 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:24 | LAUNCHPAD 0x5d8b…9860 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 95 | $4,795 | $5 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4795 < $10000 |
| 07:14 | LIQUITITTY 0x0442…543a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 76 | $100,838 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 07:08 | LIQUITITTY 0x64eb…a478 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 121 | $72,375 | $24,162 | 1.52 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:59 | LIQUITITTY 0x0fff…a6fa | pons-v2 | 33 | $24,108 | $67,760 | 1.36 | gateD:buy/sell 1.36 < 1.5 |
| 06:57 | STRIKE 0x43ff…3deb | pons-v2 | 20 | $3,770 | $10 | gateD:liq $3770 < $10000 | |
| 06:54 | QFMM 0xe7cc…3c9f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 55 | $64,985 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:37 | PAINT 0x8c49…0628 | pons-v2 | 82 | $15,757 | $17,938 | 1.26 | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 |
| 06:36 | REMEMBER 0x7800…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $25,316 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:34 | BISCOTTI 0x7cd7…deb1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $180,698 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 06:29 | ARTON 0x3617…deab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 180 | $67,162 | $67,417 | 1.90 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:27 | AP 0x69c6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $236,541 | $376 | 0.71 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:25 | STBL 0xef36…a80e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $45,289 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:15 | WHEEL 0x153b…d419 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 117 | $116,472 | $44,729 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 06:09 | FYNNEL 0x172a…2806 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 130 | $44,129 | $23,680 | 1.60 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:08 | PARABOLA 0x09dc…86cf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 185 | $90,589 | $26,492 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 05:58 | PARABOLA 0x9183…2fd4 | pons-v2 | 36 | $30,306 | $44,469 | 0.93 | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 |
| 05:56 | TULIP 0x038e…6846 | pons-v2 | 78 | $4,963 | $1,327 | 0.47 | gateD:liq $4963 < $10000 |
| 05:56 | neuron 0x7fe9…51d5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 172 | $68,444 | $19,793 | 1.81 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:50 | COMOTITTIES 0x91e4…dac4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $13,212 | $7,393 | 2.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:50 | EQUITY 0xd80d…567d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 101 | $65,217 | $29,935 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 05:47 | STOCKSS 0x7bc5…3f27 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $18,090 | $3,124 | 1.67 | gateD:vol5 $3124 < $5000 |
| 05:35 | ANYTHINGPAD 0x7fdc…737d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $35,667 | $58,183 | 1.05 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:35 | Layers 0x02a3…b8c3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 239 | $24,951 | $24,564 | 0.61 | gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5 |
| 05:31 | SOYJAK 0x9b99…368c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $3,878 | $2,161 | 1.14 | gateD:liq $3878 < $10000 |
| 05:31 | CAPITALCAT 0x0521…75c8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 222 | $10,360 | $487 | 0.63 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:30 | CAPITALCAT 0xb1c4…10fc | pons-v2 | 24 | $8,406 | $8,407 | 1.01 | gateD:liq $8406 < $10000 |
| 05:29 | LIENSTRATEGY 0x91cf…e56b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $83,640 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:29 | unc 0x3fcf…7f85 | pons-v2 | 54 | $8 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:16 | Stockcat 0xe9ca…d64c | pons-v2 | 73 | $6,095 | $369 | 0.17 | gateD:liq $6095 < $10000 |
| 05:13 | FREAK 0x42f2…545a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $59,805 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:11 | SHEEP 0x464b…3043 | pons-v2 | 43 | $12,700 | $14,035 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 05:11 | ECHELON 0x87f1…b326 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $14,030 | $1,196 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000 |
| 05:10 | KEY 0x1f40…a201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $4,132 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:06 | HOUSE 0x0476…f1c9 | pons-v2 | 42 | $5,656 | $256 | gateD:liq $5656 < $10000 | |
| 05:02 | WONKA 0x6157…46b7 | pons-v2 | 41 | $17,210 | $5,273 | 1.89 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 05:01 | KERVON 0x7073…15f7 | pons-v2 | 47 | $3,992 | $143 | 0.06 | gateD:liq $3992 < $10000 |
| 04:57 | FREAK 0xe3c2…3d02 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $23,779 | $9,354 | 2.52 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 04:57 | SXY 0x1a70…43af | pons-v2 | 50 | $6,564 | $11,201 | 0.69 | gateD:liq $6564 < $10000 |
| 04:56 | MILKERS 0x18f9…e8cf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $5,215 | $21,106 | 1.02 | gateD:liq $5215 < $10000 |
| 04:53 | BITCORN 0x3a48…c7c4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $5,601 | $28,063 | 1.22 | gateD:liq $5601 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 125 |
| gateD:liq | 30 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 29 |
| gateD:features | 25 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 15 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 12 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 12 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 11 |
| gateD:vol5 | 5 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 4 |
| C:sellSimStale | 3 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
183 refusals checked at +1h so far. 10 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 158 | -12.4% | 5 |
| filterC | 25 | +1.6% | 5 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:45 | REMEMBER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -26.3% | -24.7% |
| 07:45 | PAINT | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | h1 | -75.1% | -50.1% |
| 07:45 | BISCOTTI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +2.4% | +1.2% |
| 07:30 | STBL | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:30 | AP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -3.3% | -1.8% |
| 07:30 | ARTON | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -11.9% | -8.4% |
| 07:30 | WHEEL | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | h1 | +14.5% | +8.5% |
| 07:15 | PARABOLA | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | h1 | -41.3% | -29.8% |
| 07:15 | FYNNEL | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 | EQUITY | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 | h1 | +21.4% | +14.0% |
| 07:00 | COMOTITTIES | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -81.3% | -56.0% |
| 07:00 | neuron | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +5.9% | -100.0% |
| 07:00 | TULIP | gateD:liq $4963 < $10000 | h1 | -51.4% | -30.3% |
| 07:00 | PARABOLA | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 | h1 | -78.7% | -52.0% |
| 07:00 | STOCKSS | gateD:vol5 $3124 < $5000 | h1 | -1.9% | -1.1% |
| 06:45 | CAPITALCAT | gateD:liq $8406 < $10000 | h1 | -67.5% | -43.0% |
| 06:45 | CAPITALCAT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.1% | -0.5% |
| 06:45 | SOYJAK | gateD:liq $3878 < $10000 | h1 | -67.8% | -95.5% |
| 06:45 | Layers | gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5 | h1 | -76.9% | -52.0% |
| 06:45 | ANYTHINGPAD | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -57.5% | -35.0% |
| 06:30 | Stockcat | gateD:liq $6095 < $10000 | h1 | +1.6% | +0.4% |
| 06:30 | unc | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -56.0% | +65461.8% |
| 06:30 | LIENSTRATEGY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06:15 | SHEEP | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 | h1 | -40.4% | -23.0% |
| 06:15 | FREAK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06:15 | KERVON | gateD:liq $3992 < $10000 | h1 | -10.7% | -5.5% |
| 06:15 | WONKA | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -31.2% | -17.0% |
| 06:15 | HOUSE | gateD:liq $5656 < $10000 | h1 | -6.4% | -3.3% |
| 06:15 | KEY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06:15 | ECHELON | gateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000 | h1 | -46.7% | -27.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)