Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 23:48 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.1h
since 10 Sept, 23:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 37s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 44s ago ok
Socket events 168 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 28 rpc · 0 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
119
launches seen
→
0
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
0
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 0 · gate D 0 · filter C 0 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.01 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1280 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:10 | RGS 0x374a…f00c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $12,776 | $2,971 | 0.82 | gateD:vol5 $2971 < $5000 |
| 22:35 | ROCKETFROG 0xd78b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $26,557 | $1,487 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000 |
| 22:28 | FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 107 | $43,070 | $87,277 | 0.83 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:28 | STONKFLY 0x85ef…85a4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $135,949 | $1,027,076 | 1.84 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:26 | RocketFrog 0x8e7d…f6cf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $7,357 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:23 | RocketFrog 0x3385…18e1 | pons-v2 | 57 | $74,088 | $367,965 | 0.99 | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 |
| 22:23 | FLY 0xd07b…e12f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 46 | $146,166 | $151,839 | 1.61 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:23 | PHAT 0x5d7c…c3b9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $94 | $19 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 22:21 | Helium 0x21ec…69d1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $55,167 | $6,966 | 3.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:18 | Kermit 0xcc04…5408 | pons-v2 | 47 | $5 | $2 | gateD:liq $5 < $10000 | |
| 22:18 | ELF 0x5993…6636 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $12,005 | $3,452 | 0.63 | gateD:vol5 $3452 < $5000 |
| 22:17 | CSGO 0x6bdd…084a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $0 | $0 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 |
| 22:15 | HOPPY 0x3981…e822 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 113 | $73,580 | $8,154 | 1.00 | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 |
| 22:15 | BANYANA 0xed26…0da6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $81,325 | $15,102 | 1.88 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:13 | casino 0x312f…bdd6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $63,279 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:13 | SPCX 0x4a0e…5eea | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $3,029,482 | $303,558 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:13 | HOPPY 0xbbab…4875 | pons-v2 | 98 | $30,222 | $98,991 | 0.94 | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 |
| 22:13 | DROYD 0x38af…c11a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:13 | FOMOMRKT 0xcc87…7e90 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 198 | $39,873 | $83,333 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 21:52 | RARE 0x851d…86db | pons-v2 | 41 | $20,220 | $21,845 | 1.84 | filterC:sellSim |
| 21:43 | ASS 0x5bb9…9d0e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $59,377 | $13,379 | 2.33 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:43 | PHAT 0x5d7c…c3b9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $488 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:39 | ZENCAT 0xe4b4…8939 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $47,933 | $21,377 | 1.95 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:39 | FLYBRAIN 0x4eb9…2d35 | pons-v2 | 38 | $18,490 | $23,260 | 2.08 | filterC:sellSim |
| 21:15 | PIZZABOT 0x75d2…8552 | pons-v2 | 46 | $15,814 | $19,993 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 21:12 | DLM 0xa90a…9425 | pons-v2 | 62 | $6,983 | $10,011 | 0.75 | gateD:liq $6983 < $10000 |
| 21:10 | FLYBRAIN 0x49ca…93e8 | pons-v2 | 24 | $10,525 | $6,894 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSim |
| 20:55 | KEKIUS 0x9eb4…3817 | pons-v2 | 32 | $14,238 | $12,458 | 0.98 | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 |
| 20:30 | STNKCHD 0x85df…5485 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $17,796 | $694 | 0.83 | gateD:vol5 $694 < $5000 |
| 20:30 | BLOB 0x105f…d0cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 269 | $22,909 | $2,186 | 1.08 | gateD:vol5 $2186 < $5000 |
| 20:29 | EYWA 0x3d27…eb02 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 104 | $89,981 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:26 | FEEZ 0x88e0…2062 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 55 | $27,506 | $10,718 | 1.65 | filterC:sellSim |
| 20:23 | FEYNMAN 0x6770…0ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $15,607 | $2,585 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $2585 < $5000 |
| 20:21 | credit 0xf387…4ee3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $54,462 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:13 | credit 0x4c8f…ef4a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 197 | $30,345 | $48,424 | 1.48 | gateD:buy/sell 1.48 < 1.5 |
| 20:12 | RBNHD 0x798a…4231 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 131 | $5,112 | $163 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5112 < $10000 |
| 20:11 | RBNHD 0xa6c2…9679 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 344 | $8,002 | $6,342 | 1.02 | gateD:liq $8002 < $10000 |
| 20:10 | Yo-yo 0xf4cc…009c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $22,036 | $15,733 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 20:09 | FLY 0x57b3…fbbc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $37,793 | $11,985 | 1.86 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:09 | BUILDING 0x9bb8…8dcc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 361 | $6,598 | $379 | 0.67 | gateD:liq $6598 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| none | |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1212 refusals checked at +1h so far. 112 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 958 | -9.9% | 45 |
| filterC | 251 | +59.2% | 67 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:45 | ROCKETFROG | gateD:vol5 $1487 < $5000 | h1 | -21.6% | -20.1% |
| 23:30 | GRASS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +37.8% | +17.4% |
| 23:30 | baton | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +165.9% | +91.0% |
| 23:30 | HOPPY | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:30 | BANYANA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +63.6% | -100.0% |
| 23:30 | CSGO | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 23:30 | Kermit | gateD:liq $5 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:30 | ELF | gateD:vol5 $3452 < $5000 | h1 | +24.1% | +11.4% |
| 23:30 | Helium | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:30 | RocketFrog | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 | h1 | -56.3% | -34.0% |
| 23:30 | FLY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -24.2% | -12.8% |
| 23:30 | PHAT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +153.0% | +417.2% |
| 23:30 | RocketFrog | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -14.5% | -13.9% |
| 23:30 | FLYBRAIN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +129.6% | +51.7% |
| 23:30 | STONKFLY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -98.9% | -89.4% |
| 23:15 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.5% | -13.8% |
| 23:15 | DGAME | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -25.9% | -20.7% |
| 23:15 | casino | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:15 | SPCX | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.2% | -27.0% |
| 23:15 | HOPPY | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 | h1 | -93.1% | -73.8% |
| 23:15 | DROYD | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 23:15 | FOMOMRKT | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 | h1 | -78.2% | -53.3% |
| 23:00 | CLUBY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -47.8% | -27.9% |
| 23:00 | AI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +14.3% | +5.9% |
| 23:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -2.3% | -7.7% |
| 23:00 | SLAWTH | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +248.3% | +121.4% |
| 23:00 | HAIRBALLS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -57.4% | -34.3% |
| 23:00 | STM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -22.9% | -21.9% |
| 23:00 | RARE | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -68.2% | -43.6% |
| 23:00 | HOOD | gateD:liq $7082 < $10000 | d1 | -73.1% | -48.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)