Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 01:18 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
1.3h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 14s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 14s ago ok
Socket events 3,922 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 439 rpc · 112 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
2,694
launches seen
→
88
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
4
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 2,129 · gate D 74 · filter C 4 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.05 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 586 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:17 | CHIPS 0x8fc6…f8a1 | pons-v2 | 35 | $10,091 | $7,985 | 1.54 | filterC:sellSim |
| 01:15 | VEEFO 0x9ed2…eba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $9,031 | $732 | 3.00 | gateD:liq $9031 < $10000 |
| 01:14 | 5 0xa788…f53b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $12,123 | $2,181 | 1.31 | gateD:vol5 $2181 < $5000 |
| 01:14 | APPL 0x31e3…370d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $5,782 | $246 | gateD:liq $5782 < $10000 | |
| 01:10 | Cramer 0xd094…a48e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 181 | $13,596 | $34,333 | 1.69 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:10 | 911 0x0830…4801 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $5,083 | $137 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5083 < $10000 |
| 01:06 | SPACEMOON 0x136a…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $4,881 | $1,202 | 0.44 | gateD:liq $4881 < $10000 |
| 01:00 | CRUMBS 0x3d87…0475 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $4,809 | $318 | 0.63 | gateD:liq $4809 < $10000 |
| 01:00 | 🖖 0xd880…8c3e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 793 | $36,855 | $165,861 | 1.33 | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 |
| 00:59 | 🖖 0xe34f…64c7 | pons-v2 | 26 | $5,330 | $98 | gateD:liq $5330 < $10000 | |
| 00:59 | 5 0xe620…e142 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $6,425 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:59 | 🖖 0x16d2…0608 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $3,663 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:51 | NOTE 0xc4f7…45b0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 827 | $17,409 | $49,748 | 0.82 | gateD:buy/sell 0.82 < 1.5 |
| 00:49 | AIBUBBLE 0xcba3…e834 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $675 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:48 | KIBA 0x7873…66d8 | pons-v2 | 103 | $52 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:44 | sGPU 0x88aa…7479 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $733 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:44 | ZASH 0xd459…c4ac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 86 | $16,613 | $1,240 | 0.76 | gateD:vol5 $1240 < $5000 |
| 00:44 | AHOO 0x91db…edcc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $7,833 | $282 | 6.00 | gateD:liq $7833 < $10000 |
| 00:41 | SPRH 0x763a…f884 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $28,053 | $3,666 | 1.14 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:39 | SPACEHOOD 0x2755…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $6,306 | $349 | 0.13 | gateD:liq $6306 < $10000 |
| 00:39 | SEND 0x0b2f…a17f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $3,369 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:35 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $1,103,851 | $55,202 | 0.94 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:33 | INCENTIFI 0xb1ae…7195 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $38,765 | $7,373 | 2.54 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 00:32 | NOSECONDBEST 0x8480…e545 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 277 | $17,892 | $7,642 | 1.12 | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 |
| 00:30 | BOXY 0x4bee…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $264,030 | $10,310 | 1.29 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:25 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $1,932,183 | $22,032 | 1.72 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:25 | POOP 0xfdff…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $26,870 | $3 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $3 < $5000 |
| 00:24 | D0GE-1 0x9459…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 91 | $8,115 | $275 | 0.75 | gateD:liq $8115 < $10000 |
| 00:23 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $7,435,263 | $17,997 | 0.64 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:22 | OSR 0x0de4…ab01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $27,715 | $1,831 | 3.33 | gateD:vol5 $1831 < $5000 |
| 00:22 | SN6900 0xa829…f842 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $5 | $1 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 00:20 | ANONSZN 0xe49a…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 104 | $5,034 | $23 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $5034 < $10000 |
| 00:20 | NGRAM 0x11ce…db96 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 78 | $55,738 | $24,544 | 1.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:19 | AIBUBBLE 0x15b0…4497 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 69 | $71,533 | $24,358 | 1.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 00:19 | GME 0x1b0e…153e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $682,122 | $25,698 | 1.84 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:19 | SPCX 0x4a0e…5eea | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $2,324,128 | $145,040 | 1.12 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:18 | onchain 0xb864…feb0 | pons-v2 | 33 | $5,594 | $1,036 | 0.45 | gateD:liq $5594 < $10000 |
| 00:18 | TESTLAUNCH 0xfd32…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $8,027 | $372 | 0.25 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:18 | HOODL 0xef1c…1f8e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $27,907 | $11,590 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 00:17 | HOODCITY 0xef42…1074 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 75 | $30,069 | $15,085 | 0.88 | gateD:buy/sell 0.88 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 36 |
| gateD:liq | 11 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 10 |
| gateD:features | 7 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 6 |
| gateD:vol5 | 4 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 3 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 3 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 3 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
523 refusals checked at +1h so far. 41 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 423 | -13.6% | 17 |
| filterC | 99 | +86.9% | 24 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | golden | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 01:00 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 01:00 | SPRH | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -26.8% | -14.8% |
| 01:00 | SNIFFORD | gateD:vol5 $7 < $5000 | h1 | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 01:00 | Molt | gateD:liq $4029 < $10000 | h1 | -4.3% | -2.1% |
| 01:00 | MADE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -48.3% | -28.2% |
| 01:00 | NGRAM | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 | h1 | -56.4% | -34.2% |
| 01:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | 0.0% | -0.5% |
| 00:00 | LUCKY | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -44.2% | -25.4% |
| 00:00 | organic | gateD:liq $5004 < $10000 | d1 | -25.7% | -13.8% |
| 00:00 | MAYE | gateD:vol5 $1932 < $5000 | d1 | -56.9% | -33.8% |
| 00:00 | G$ | gateD:liq $8131 < $10000 | d1 | -78.5% | -53.6% |
| 00:00 | OG.COM | gateD:liq $8313 < $10000 | h1 | -52.4% | -31.0% |
| 00:00 | OG.COM | gateD:liq $6830 < $10000 | h1 | -29.6% | -16.0% |
| 00:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +0.0% | +0.5% |
| 00:00 | LISTED | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 | h1 | -11.8% | -6.1% |
| 00:00 | LISTED | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 | h1 | +50.2% | +22.6% |
| 00:00 | OG | gateD:liq $6487 < $10000 | h1 | -37.4% | -20.8% |
| 00:00 | OG | gateD:liq $6585 < $10000 | h1 | -39.2% | -22.0% |
| 00:00 | PYRE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +87.1% | +39.1% |
| 00:00 | BUDDY | filterC:sellSim | h1 | +53.3% | +36.0% |
| 00:00 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.1% | -0.0% |
| 00:00 | CRUMBS | gateD:buy/sell 1.21 < 1.5 | h1 | -74.3% | -49.2% |
| 00:00 | LCN | gateD:liq $5208 < $10000 | h1 | -60.4% | -37.0% |
| 00:00 | MUSE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -77.7% | -52.8% |
| 00:00 | DFC | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +26.5% | +15.2% |
| 00:00 | GOOGL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.0% | +0.2% |
| 00:00 | RUB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 00:00 | JEW | gateD:liq $235 < $10000 | h1 | +7.0% | -75.7% |
| 00:00 | GTACRYPTO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +4.4% | +2.2% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)