Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 17:16 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$261.37
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
7
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$37.34
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
6.7h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 18s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 9,208 · failsafes 5 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,092 rpc · 915 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
6,929
launches seen
→
170
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
31
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
7
opened
Refused: gate B 6,668 · gate D 132 · filter C 24 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 3 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -$261.37 | -$37.34 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (7)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:49 | 16:57 | NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6 | Gold v2 | 12.1m | 8m | 1.03x | confirm_bail | -$7.52 | -15.0% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17463 vol5 $9057 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 16:08 | 16:17 | Fork 0xa5fd…a71e | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 9m | 1.26x | stop | -$46.24 | -92.5% | B:45 buyers · D:liq $17793 vol5 $9026 b/s 1.53 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:43 | 13:13 | BNTR 0x12d1…68bb | Gold v2 | 11.3m | 90m | 1.36x | max_hold | $0.70 | +1.4% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:51 | 11:54 | BUROS 0x1901…ace6 | Gold v2 | 10m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$55.00 | -55.0% | B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:29 | 11:31 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$65.65 | -65.7% | B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 10:57 | 11:03 | Oilinu 0x54b7…d06c | Gold v2 | 13.5m | 6m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.94 | -53.9% | B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 10:50 | 10:53 | CHIPR 0x6a80…9469 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$60.72 | -60.7% | B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 7 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.28 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$261.37 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 14% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 800 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:15 | QI 0xe714…e642 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 179 | $146,715 | $54,406 | 1.85 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:14 | BLUECHIP 0xfac5…ec27 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $14,046 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:12 | MM 0xa4d0…e01d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 131 | $68,091 | $29,084 | 1.07 | gateD:buy/sell 1.07 < 1.5 |
| 17:12 | GUESSR 0xfc75…d5b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $17,376 | $6,985 | 1.24 | gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5 |
| 17:10 | MM 0x49f3…3ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 174 | $17,563 | $878 | 0.92 | gateD:vol5 $878 < $5000 |
| 17:09 | QUBT 0x5981…34b4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $171,955 | $86,969 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 17:09 | QI 0xfd20…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 389 | $54,144 | $49,411 | 1.16 | gateD:buy/sell 1.16 < 1.5 |
| 17:03 | REVA 0xe61c…f48b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $54,814 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:02 | REVA 0x7219…94a5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 264 | $17,132 | $10,431 | 1.55 | filterC:sellSim |
| 17:00 | AIR 0x8331…e201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $22,830 | $2,785 | 1.29 | gateD:vol5 $2785 < $5000 |
| 16:59 | REVA 0x0cd9…3863 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 176 | $28,760 | $35,401 | 1.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:59 | ZDOG 0xb7cf…76b9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $58,824 | $27,375 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:55 | $CRACKPIPE 0xbd47…243f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 108 | $18,158 | $2,667 | 1.11 | gateD:vol5 $2667 < $5000 |
| 16:53 | $CRACKPIPE 0xe4fc…c868 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 141 | $103,082 | $35,001 | 1.64 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:52 | REVA 0xc1c8…42d7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 108 | $26,646 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:51 | HACKTHELAPTOP 0xee67…5ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 172 | $19,519 | $1,295 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $1295 < $5000 |
| 16:49 | DOGSHIT 0xe79e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $24,992 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 16:49 | NEXUS 0x16bf…9bc6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $17,463 | $9,057 | 1.54 | ADMITTED |
| 16:43 | ZDOG 0x7b63…1ae5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $22,616 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:41 | PE2E 0x862b…09d4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $50,401 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:38 | torinox 0x6dfd…f038 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $43,211 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:37 | ZDOG 0x72ff…684d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 157 | $101,020 | $35,125 | 3.39 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:35 | torinox 0x7914…c0b2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 55 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:29 | BOND 0x5485…8fff | pons-v2 | 35 | $7,656 | $6,404 | 0.18 | gateD:liq $7656 < $10000 |
| 16:29 | VLAD 0x4aa6…84f9 | pons-v2 | 24 | $4,660 | $416 | 0.60 | gateD:liq $4660 < $10000 |
| 16:28 | BOND 0xd658…d7bc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 157 | $112,743 | $74,973 | 2.17 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:13 | SGOV 0x92fd…f9b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $4,596,977 | $6,386 | 0.24 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 16:08 | Fork 0xa5fd…a71e | pons-v2 | 45 | $17,793 | $9,026 | 1.53 | ADMITTED |
| 16:07 | HEFT 0xf549…a57c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 132 | $25,496 | $14,372 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSim |
| 16:06 | ROBOSHARE 0xabd8…84af | pons-v2 | 73 | $6,667 | $10,695 | 0.49 | gateD:liq $6667 < $10000 |
| 16:03 | JOMO 0x57a4…4d98 | pons-v2 | 22 | $5,395 | $491 | 0.14 | gateD:liq $5395 < $10000 |
| 16:02 | TRADE 0x7d6c…33e8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 132 | $96,131 | $45,619 | 2.07 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:58 | HUNG 0x4e1a…42b1 | pons-v2 | 28 | $7,390 | $688 | 1.45 | gateD:liq $7390 < $10000 |
| 15:55 | AIP 0x9ff2…c6ff | pons-v2 | 36 | $13,510 | $14,596 | 2.01 | filterC:sellSim |
| 15:45 | PRECRIME 0x1ffa…3341 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 415 | $23,877 | $74,329 | 1.24 | gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5 |
| 15:39 | LAPTOP 0x76ed…0b7f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 144 | $83,198 | $38,076 | 1.26 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 15:37 | boden 0x8730…fe0e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $16,926 | $15,026 | 1.29 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 15:36 | WWW 0xf011…cfcd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 135 | $120,716 | $34,911 | 1.53 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 15:36 | HODLster 0x4f01…4091 | pons-v2 | 29 | $3,778 | $454 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3778 < $10000 |
| 15:25 | HAMSTERUNITE 0xce9f…b42b | pons-v2 | 20 | $23,332 | $316,697 | 1.08 | gateD:buy/sell 1.08 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 61 |
| gateD:features | 20 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 17 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 17 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 17 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 17 |
| gateD:liq | 15 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 12 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 8 |
| gateD:vol5 | 7 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:sellSim | 3 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
738 refusals checked at +1h so far. 57 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 600 | -7.3% | 27 |
| filterC | 137 | +69.2% | 30 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:15 | CDRM | gateD:liq $4435 < $10000 | d1 | -11.2% | -10.7% |
| 17:15 | USDE | gateD:liq $6327 < $10000 | d1 | -45.5% | -27.4% |
| 17:15 | USDE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | NVIDIA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | Coca Cola | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:15 | Knight | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +28.7% | +19.7% |
| 17:15 | TRADE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -20.7% | -13.8% |
| 17:15 | JOMO | gateD:liq $5395 < $10000 | h1 | -49.6% | -29.0% |
| 17:15 | ROBOSHARE | gateD:liq $6667 < $10000 | h1 | -62.9% | -39.1% |
| 17:15 | HEFT | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -43.9% | -25.3% |
| 17:15 | SGOV | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.0% | +0.9% |
| 17:00 | FLYWHEEL | gateD:liq $5825 < $10000 | d1 | -30.3% | -17.2% |
| 17:00 | RKN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 17:00 | AUTOAI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 17:00 | PRECRIME | gateD:buy/sell 1.24 < 1.5 | h1 | -90.8% | -69.6% |
| 17:00 | AIP | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -79.1% | -54.1% |
| 17:00 | HUNG | gateD:liq $7390 < $10000 | h1 | -43.7% | -24.9% |
| 17:00 | AMAZONCOIN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +64.7% | +41.7% |
| 17:00 | AXOM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:45 | DEPLOY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:45 | SPXG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +36.0% | +22.3% |
| 16:45 | HODLster | gateD:liq $3778 < $10000 | h1 | +33.7% | +15.7% |
| 16:45 | WWW | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +15.2% | +9.0% |
| 16:45 | boden | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -45.5% | -25.5% |
| 16:45 | LAPTOP | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -57.6% | -34.3% |
| 16:45 | PLUMBER | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -14.0% | -13.2% |
| 16:45 | DEPLOY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:45 | DEPLOY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 16:45 | MEMES | gateD:liq $7321 < $10000 | d1 | -72.9% | -47.9% |
| 16:30 | Hound | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -9.4% | -5.1% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)