Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 07:26 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 3s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 4s ago ok
Socket events 11,358 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,797 rpc · 1,069 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

7,871
launches seen
187
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
22
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
1
opened

Refused: gate B 7,557 · gate D 162 · filter C 21 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2011$6.14$6.14
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (1)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
03:3203:36Tomo 0x8661…3472Gold v215.3m4m1.84xtrail$6.14+12.3%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set140not yet
Running days0.375not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$6.14> $0met
Win rate inside 50 to 73%100%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1049 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
07:24iHOLD 0x94b9…a119pons-v270$13,875$9,9411.11gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5
07:23MKT 0x12b6…a6a1pons-v2103$26,146$137,1941.50filterC:sellSimStale
07:19HOLD 0x0645…37aduniswap-v4-launchpad166$61,000$9,5802.61filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
07:18HOLD 0x8daf…612cpons-v239$8,562$28,2170.76gateD:liq $8562 < $10000
07:08flysim 0x517b…6aacuniswap-v4-launchpad49$29,146$7,8710.63gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:59BTC 0x53ce…1405uniswap-v4-launchpad215$7,592$8140.23gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
06:50LOCKHEEDINU 0xba60…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad29$39,695$941.25gateD:vol5 $94 < $5000
06:49SPIRITS 0x17d4…1a67pons-v231$6,599$1,5961.05gateD:liq $6599 < $10000
06:45SPIRITS 0x6774…200euniswap-v4-launchpad176$103,136$19,3642.04filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:44ELEV8 0xf86a…fcb3uniswap-v4-launchpad93$65,674$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:42fIycoin 0x8c00…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad48$39,664$5260.56gateD:vol5 $526 < $5000
06:42FLY 0x23f4…7101uniswap-v4-launchpad141$102,358$73,6482.03filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:34Fly 0xbf30…f9fepons-v224$9,543$14,8500.84gateD:liq $9543 < $10000
06:33FLY 0xd07b…e12fpons-v245$48,920$229,7421.37gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5
06:32PDF 0x1efa…5101uniswap-v4-launchpad29$8,898$1,5006.00gateD:liq $8898 < $10000
06:30FLY 0x426d…20e0uniswap-v4-launchpad72$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
06:25FlyAgent AI 0xbd38…3ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad39$10,920$441.00gateD:vol5 $44 < $5000
06:23FLY 0x8d07…82fbuniswap-v4-launchpad154$120,950$84,5321.78filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:22STIMMY 0xc78c…2dd5pons-v244$7,101$2,4320.51gateD:liq $7101 < $10000
06:16GALX 0x04cf…d3b5uniswap-v4-launchpad91$70,653$12,2991.91filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
06:11BI 0x90b2…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad27$30,210$411.00gateD:vol5 $41 < $5000
06:10MIND 0xe525…ccaduniswap-v4-launchpad33$21,415$5,5582.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
05:57DIVIDEND 0xc8a0…d66buniswap-v4-launchpad186$118,660$21,1941.91filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
05:47Kimchi 0xd8a3…6c57uniswap-v4-launchpad61$7,751$2,4991.75gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:36BONER 0x9809…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad34$548,799$16,6161.80gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:34PN20REF 0xd932…60ccuniswap-v4-launchpad36$8,796$2,8680.57gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
05:32Plumber 0x0758…6002pons-v236$10,013$25,3531.17gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5
05:28DIVIDEND 0xc6e5…a712pons-v237$10,054$10,7850.84gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5
05:23Trumpdrop 0xd241…11a7pons-v235$24,634$87,0491.62filterC:sellSimStale
05:01MEAD 0x68b9…1e18pons-v227$19,684$24,3631.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
04:56MEAD 0x80b2…4115pons-v243$5,249$9220.55gateD:liq $5249 < $10000
04:47Rialto 0xe0fb…b7c6uniswap-v4-launchpad67$19,469$18,5621.59filterC:sellSim
04:37ETFAM 0xd709…9a9duniswap-v4-launchpad29$21,650$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:24SNDK 0xb90a…6400uniswap-v4-launchpad20$350,893$1,2741.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:17CANAL 0xb796…aec8uniswap-v4-launchpad174$108,056$27,9602.15gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:16PLUME 0xa0d6…25cdpons-v245$6,901$2072.00gateD:liq $6901 < $10000
04:14ND4DOTETH 0x416d…24ccuniswap-v4-launchpad51$7,191$1,6581.00gateD:liq $7191 < $10000
04:09LUCY 0x2acb…d628pons-v237$7,252$14,9970.79gateD:liq $7252 < $10000
03:45CUP 0xd475…0ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad505$59,674$73,7530.66gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5
03:36STEP 0xffc3…440buniswap-v4-launchpad134$34,965$37,6810.93gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool95
gateD:poolMismatch25
C:notV2VsWeth18
C:creatorShareUnknown18
gateD:liq17
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager17
C:swapsH1<25013
gateD:features10
gateD:buy/sell10
gateD:vol55
C:copycat2
C:sellSimStale2
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1
C:sellSim1
C:liquidityUnder$250001

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

968 refusals checked at +1h so far. 85 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD779-8.7%35
filterC188+63.8%50
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
07:15BOILERfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+131.2%+67.1%
07:15GregorygateD:liq $9005 < $10000d1-68.0%-44.6%
07:15MINDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+105.0%+73.0%
07:15BIgateD:vol5 $41 < $5000h1-4.2%-3.6%
07:00ZOEgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-36.2%-27.0%
07:00VeilgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
07:00TURRETgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
07:00KimchigateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-24.4%-13.1%
07:00DIVIDENDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-0.9%-0.5%
06:45TOILETgateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5d1-79.0%-70.3%
06:45PLUMgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
06:45PlumbergateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5h1-35.8%-19.9%
06:45PN20REFgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-18.8%-14.9%
06:45BONERgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+6.4%+3.7%
06:30CANDLEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
06:30DESKgateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5d1-35.6%-19.7%
06:30TrumpdropfilterC:sellSimStaleh1-69.7%-45.0%
06:30DIVIDENDgateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5h1-78.5%-53.6%
06:30CANDLEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
06:15CANDLEgateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5d1-90.4%-69.1%
06:15MEADgateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5h1-89.8%-68.1%
06:15PixoramagateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5d1-62.4%-99.9%
06:00GARYgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
06:00BasiliskgateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5d1-16.4%-8.7%
06:00RSTRgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-71.7%-47.0%
06:00RialtofilterC:sellSimh1-43.5%-24.7%
06:00MEADgateD:liq $5249 < $10000h1-40.5%-22.9%
06:00GARYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+83.0%+61.8%
05:45REBELgateD:vol5 $117 < $5000d1-13.0%-11.9%
05:45JacobfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownd1-92.8%-83.7%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)