Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 15:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
14.8h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 22s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 43s ago ok
Socket events 18,173 · failsafes 3 · errors 1
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 6,832 rpc · 1,908 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

11,641
launches seen
512
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
50
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 11,009 · gate D 460 · filter C 50 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.625not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1538 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
15:21Lie 0x7e24…69depons-v254$7,000$12,6250.82gateD:liq $7000 < $10000
15:18FLYBRAIN 0x2bec…3ad4uniswap-v4-launchpad49$52,524$39,1261.33gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5
15:18Lie 0x1d72…88e1uniswap-v4-launchpad146$72,075$55,3921.64filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:12GASCAT 0x67f6…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad51$29,311$1,6332.00gateD:vol5 $1633 < $5000
15:10Flybook 0x4db0…da9funiswap-v4-launchpad99$69,091$26,0092.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
15:05Openraise 0xcf99…9cd1uniswap-v4-launchpad110$86,595$30,7461.38gateD:buy/sell 1.38 < 1.5
14:47PENNY 0xe776…1fb2uniswap-v4-launchpad50$3,813$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
14:41Flybook 0x4630…9d80pons-v246$19,300$77,7331.37gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5
14:40Flybook 0x9cab…177funiswap-v4-launchpad220$64,554$12,7121.52filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
14:40Flybook 0x5a47…d069pons-v268$11,315$24,0280.71gateD:buy/sell 0.71 < 1.5
14:22LABRAT 0x45b9…58a4uniswap-v4-launchpad128$72,657$44,7051.66filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
14:06blue 0x59e5…230euniswap-v4-launchpad149$98,057$30,8402.30filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
14:06WORK 0x9429…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad129$20,812$2700.00gateD:vol5 $270 < $5000
14:04Rack 0x9d56…d9d6uniswap-v4-launchpad81$61,285$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
14:02Rack 0x3051…f4d6uniswap-v4-launchpad39$45,834$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
14:01Rack 0xbc69…e9f7uniswap-v4-launchpad35$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
14:01CAP 0x2f21…12f3uniswap-v4-launchpad27$51,902$22,3931.05gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
13:59Rack 0x8a1d…a9dcuniswap-v4-launchpad44$40,648$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:53Rack 0x42c4…f271pons-v289$51$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:53Gro 0x917b…da08pons-v256$16,951$5,4202.54filterC:sellSim
13:43ELEGANS 0x0928…d350uniswap-v4-launchpad117$66,696$34,1981.52filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
13:32VALUABLE 0x3803…1788pons-v274$4$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:24Izzy 0x4afa…0590pons-v239$17$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:16Bagtone 0x0f62…1ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad20$9,186$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:05blue 0xa8c2…5f38uniswap-v4-launchpad93$76,387$30,5041.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
12:53PPILOT 0xf292…2b8buniswap-v4-launchpad50$70,631$34,1661.53filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:39LIQ 0x29a9…7a80uniswap-v4-launchpad110$22,518$29,7181.57filterC:sellSim
12:33QUORUM 0xc1db…bd8buniswap-v4-launchpad116$68,702$57,0271.71filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:58TIDE 0xcbb0…4e9buniswap-v4-launchpad77$47,790$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:46JETS 0xa011…9b9cuniswap-v4-launchpad117$81,607$10,9551.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:44Sprout 0x0d19…7f48uniswap-v4-launchpad40$27,788$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:43SPOONBOT 0x45e4…8311pons-v255$7$10gateD:liq $7 < $10000
11:36HASHTOWN 0xbe00…ce11uniswap-v4-launchpad124$77,792$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:13EMILE 0x80fe…c8fauniswap-v4-launchpad122$62,737$20,2721.52filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:05AGI 0xf793…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad378$3,366$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:03Bullions 0x108c…c265uniswap-v4-launchpad27$19,615$2,5611.56gateD:vol5 $2561 < $5000
11:02AGI 0xa058…5555uniswap-v4-launchpad166$3,275$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:02ei 0x2634…5acauniswap-v4-launchpad98$73,256$8,7521.82filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:01FLLY 0x1f7f…1c01uniswap-v4-launchpad39$4,734$6020.00gateD:liq $4734 < $10000
10:59INU 0x8202…8ae6uniswap-v4-launchpad351$78,412$20,7151.63filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool248
gateD:features63
gateD:liq48
gateD:poolMismatch45
C:notV2VsWeth37
C:creatorShareUnknown37
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager35
gateD:buy/sell34
C:swapsH1<25028
gateD:vol517
C:sellSim13
missed the window5
C:liquidityUnder$250004
C:tapeRatio>42
C:lpNotVerifiable:none2
C:copycat1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

1460 refusals checked at +1h so far. 133 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD1160-8.4%59
filterC297+50.6%74
+5m honeypot veto30.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
15:15ZenoCoingateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5d1-82.3%-58.5%
15:15OUTLAWgateD:vol5 $229 < $5000d1-58.8%-47.6%
15:15CAPgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-67.5%-43.0%
15:15RackgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
15:15RackgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
15:15RackgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
15:15WORKgateD:vol5 $270 < $5000h1+4.7%+4.5%
15:15bluefilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-3.5%-2.3%
15:15NANNAgateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5d1-32.5%-30.2%
15:15TNTRfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+195.3%+101.8%
15:00MANATEEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+146.7%+94.9%
15:00GrofilterC:sellSimh1-93.7%-74.9%
15:00RackgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-46.9%-98.0%
15:00RackgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
14:45CashcatfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknownd1-82.7%-74.1%
14:45VladgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
14:45ElonfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-6.6%-4.0%
14:45ElonfilterC:notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+14.4%+7.5%
14:45VALUABLEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
14:45ELEGANSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+4.2%+2.8%
14:45OZZYfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+103.7%+61.3%
14:30NemotrongateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
14:30XCOINSfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
14:30ECHORAgateD:liq $7076 < $10000d1-64.2%-40.9%
14:30NemotrongateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
14:30WINTERNUKEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1n/an/a
14:30WINTERNUKEgateD:vol5 $3873 < $5000d1-84.2%-60.6%
14:30BagtonegateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-0.1%-0.2%
14:30IzzygateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-12.9%-6.8%
14:15BeastgateD:liq $6365 < $10000d1-63.8%-40.2%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)