Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 03:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$64.72
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$32.36
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
3.6h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 5s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 14s ago ok
Socket events 8,859 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,534 rpc · 461 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
6,077
launches seen
→
174
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
10
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
2
opened
Refused: gate B 5,579 · gate D 157 · filter C 8 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -$64.72 | -$32.36 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (2)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:53 | 03:00 | MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 8m | 1.06x | stop | -$35.19 | -70.4% | B:30 buyers · D:liq $17919 vol5 $5480 b/s 1.95 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:12 | 02:20 | COMPUTER 0xc236…7293 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 8m | 1.00x | stop | -$29.53 | -59.1% | B:24 buyers · D:liq $22758 vol5 $99785 b/s 1.57 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 2 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.15 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$64.72 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 0% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 621 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:25 | PIZZA 0x956e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $28,693 | $2,264 | 1.05 | gateD:vol5 $2264 < $5000 |
| 03:25 | RECEIPT 0xb97d…34ee | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 98 | $52,398 | $14,150 | 1.96 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:09 | MAGA 0x25d3…e299 | pons-v2 | 54 | $6,144 | $421 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $6144 < $10000 |
| 03:02 | OCTN 0xc7c1…43dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 258 | $17,016 | $62,369 | 1.39 | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 |
| 02:55 | sat 0x796f…1d01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $4,363 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:53 | MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147 | pons-v2 | 30 | $17,919 | $5,480 | 1.95 | ADMITTED |
| 02:51 | REAL 0x153c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:51 | SHARO 0x6d6c…151f | pons-v2 | 49 | $12,047 | $9,312 | 1.28 | gateD:buy/sell 1.28 < 1.5 |
| 02:48 | unipcs 0xdb7e…dee8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 70 | $54,276 | $10,382 | 2.33 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:30 | OYIRA 0xf4bd…aace | pons-v2 | 26 | $4,732 | $9 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4732 < $10000 |
| 02:26 | FLY 0xc2ec…4c4f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 223 | $118,467 | $32,013 | 1.63 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:19 | COMPUTER 0xe3aa…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 148 | $29,181 | $186 | 1.67 | gateD:vol5 $186 < $5000 |
| 02:19 | COMPUTER 0x12a9…6721 | pons-v2 | 42 | $4,050 | $13 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4050 < $10000 |
| 02:12 | FLY 0x4d0e…60f3 | pons-v2 | 72 | $19,021 | $9,207 | 1.93 | filterC:sellSim |
| 02:12 | COMPUTER 0xc236…7293 | pons-v2 | 24 | $22,758 | $99,785 | 1.57 | ADMITTED |
| 02:12 | Mooncoin 0x4bdd…e044 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $34,466 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:10 | HOODCOIN 0x508e…01b8 | pons-v2 | 95 | $5,728 | $475 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $5728 < $10000 |
| 02:06 | NYSE 0x8336…a293 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $47,165 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:04 | COW 0x003c…e2a1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $7,095 | $3,256 | 0.86 | gateD:liq $7095 < $10000 |
| 02:02 | Apes 0x1d63…e398 | pons-v2 | 85 | $7,512 | $69,426 | 1.04 | gateD:liq $7512 < $10000 |
| 01:59 | うさぎ 0x82a9…dbaa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 182 | $21,460 | $11,379 | 1.34 | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 |
| 01:51 | CHALK 0xb4c3…c099 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $21,044 | $1,243 | 1.50 | gateD:vol5 $1243 < $5000 |
| 01:49 | Cass 0xc48b…01dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $48,692 | $8,147 | 2.31 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:44 | Cass 0x531e…350b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 699 | $17,744 | $75,344 | 1.00 | gateD:buy/sell 1.00 < 1.5 |
| 01:43 | LG 0x3fa5…8133 | pons-v2 | 34 | $4,390 | $5 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4390 < $10000 |
| 01:40 | vran 0x4c92…b0dd | pons-v2 | 28 | $13,134 | $4,979 | 0.92 | gateD:vol5 $4979 < $5000 |
| 01:36 | arena0 0x3205…aba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 231 | $23,017 | $6,031 | 0.83 | gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5 |
| 01:35 | Melvin 0x2986…dc32 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 92 | $5,803 | $1,754 | 0.13 | gateD:liq $5803 < $10000 |
| 01:35 | Melvin 0x8b27…aeb3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $5,191 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:30 | Melvin 0xee6e…492d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $5,946 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:27 | Mevlin 0x40c3…0365 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 97 | $5,967 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:26 | CRYPTO 0x862a…6330 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $2,998 | $611 | 0.86 | gateD:liq $2998 < $10000 |
| 01:23 | unc 0x0818…aad6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 46 | $5,469 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:20 | CATT 0x8fc6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $50,820 | $3,265 | 1.54 | gateD:vol5 $3265 < $5000 |
| 01:20 | NAC 0x7511…3444 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $5,830 | $62 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $5830 < $10000 |
| 01:17 | CHIPS 0x8fc6…f8a1 | pons-v2 | 35 | $10,091 | $7,985 | 1.54 | filterC:sellSim |
| 01:15 | VEEFO 0x9ed2…eba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $9,031 | $732 | 3.00 | gateD:liq $9031 < $10000 |
| 01:14 | 5 0xa788…f53b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $12,123 | $2,181 | 1.31 | gateD:vol5 $2181 < $5000 |
| 01:14 | APPL 0x31e3…370d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $5,782 | $246 | gateD:liq $5782 < $10000 | |
| 01:10 | Cramer 0xd094…a48e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 181 | $13,596 | $34,333 | 1.69 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 90 |
| gateD:liq | 21 |
| gateD:features | 15 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 11 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 11 |
| gateD:vol5 | 9 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 6 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 6 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 6 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 2 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
589 refusals checked at +1h so far. 46 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 482 | -11.0% | 21 |
| filterC | 106 | +79.2% | 25 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:30 | AQU | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +3.5% | +2.0% |
| 03:30 | EQUITY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -98.1% | -86.6% |
| 03:30 | ZCAT | gateD:liq $6032 < $10000 | d1 | -62.5% | -54.8% |
| 03:30 | POOPCOIN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:30 | ZCAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:30 | SHOPIFY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:30 | FIRE | gateD:liq $6207 < $10000 | d1 | -58.8% | -36.1% |
| 03:30 | ZDOG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -0.1% | n/a |
| 03:30 | NASTY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -4.0% | -3.3% |
| 03:30 | PANE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:30 | COMPUTER | gateD:vol5 $186 < $5000 | h1 | -8.8% | -7.6% |
| 03:30 | COMPUTER | gateD:liq $4050 < $10000 | h1 | -6.0% | -3.0% |
| 03:30 | FLY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -88.0% | -79.0% |
| 03:15 | SUPER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:15 | SHOPIFY | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -94.3% | -78.3% |
| 03:15 | OSR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +2.3% | +2.3% |
| 03:15 | DOGE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -35.8% | -33.1% |
| 03:15 | Apes | gateD:liq $7512 < $10000 | h1 | -50.8% | -29.9% |
| 03:15 | COW | gateD:liq $7095 < $10000 | h1 | -46.6% | -42.2% |
| 03:15 | NYSE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:15 | HOODCOIN | gateD:liq $5728 < $10000 | h1 | -21.8% | -11.6% |
| 03:15 | Mooncoin | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03:15 | FLY | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -95.4% | -78.6% |
| 03:15 | PANE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:00 | SPREAD | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 03:00 | VEEF | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | d1 | -0.3% | n/a |
| 03:00 | KERF | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -16.1% | -8.6% |
| 03:00 | SUPER | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -3.2% | -2.0% |
| 03:00 | Cass | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -11.8% | -9.3% |
| 03:00 | CHALK | gateD:vol5 $1243 < $5000 | h1 | -85.0% | -61.3% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)