Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 05:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
7.1h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 1s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 9s ago ok
Socket events 9,506 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,866 rpc · 778 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

6,739
launches seen
135
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
14
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
1
opened

Refused: gate B 6,442 · gate D 114 · filter C 13 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2011$6.14$6.14
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (1)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
03:3203:36Tomo 0x8661…3472Gold v215.3m4m1.84xtrail$6.14+12.3%B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set140not yet
Running days0.295not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$6.14> $0met
Win rate inside 50 to 73%100%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 1023 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
05:32Plumber 0x0758…6002pons-v236$10,013$25,3531.17gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5
05:28DIVIDEND 0xc6e5…a712pons-v237$10,054$10,7850.84gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5
05:23Trumpdrop 0xd241…11a7pons-v235$24,634$87,0491.62filterC:sellSimStale
05:01MEAD 0x68b9…1e18pons-v227$19,684$24,3631.13gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5
04:56MEAD 0x80b2…4115pons-v243$5,249$9220.55gateD:liq $5249 < $10000
04:47Rialto 0xe0fb…b7c6uniswap-v4-launchpad67$19,469$18,5621.59filterC:sellSim
04:37ETFAM 0xd709…9a9duniswap-v4-launchpad29$21,650$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
04:24SNDK 0xb90a…6400uniswap-v4-launchpad20$350,893$1,2741.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:17CANAL 0xb796…aec8uniswap-v4-launchpad174$108,056$27,9602.15gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
04:16PLUME 0xa0d6…25cdpons-v245$6,901$2072.00gateD:liq $6901 < $10000
04:14ND4DOTETH 0x416d…24ccuniswap-v4-launchpad51$7,191$1,6581.00gateD:liq $7191 < $10000
04:09LUCY 0x2acb…d628pons-v237$7,252$14,9970.79gateD:liq $7252 < $10000
03:45CUP 0xd475…0ba3uniswap-v4-launchpad505$59,674$73,7530.66gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5
03:36STEP 0xffc3…440buniswap-v4-launchpad134$34,965$37,6810.93gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5
03:32Tomo 0x8661…3472pons-v236$17,355$17,9561.52ADMITTED
03:31MSFT 0xe932…2e74uniswap-v4-launchpad39$796,419$43,9730.97gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
03:25MIDORI 0xf608…244epons-v222$7,499$54,2261.06gateD:liq $7499 < $10000
03:22MIDORI 0x10e9…fe2duniswap-v4-launchpad150$111,510$70,1852.13filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
03:22ROKO 0x6206…fd43pons-v238$14,672$74,0611.20gateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5
03:19MIDORI 0x2723…0f1epons-v225$33,757$253,5070.91gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5
03:13BRDY 0x884b…c6c5uniswap-v4-launchpad120$57,203$25,7171.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
03:07VEEFO 0xcbbf…bba3uniswap-v4-launchpad20$7,409$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
02:59IRA 0x32ae…9304uniswap-v4-launchpad50$62,588$30,1291.67filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
02:59AGI 0x101c…8be5uniswap-v4-launchpad204$25,421$25,0671.92filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
02:53DUO 0x234b…04dcuniswap-v4-launchpad53$68,363$34,5301.60filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
02:42Jacob 0x3df3…06f1uniswap-v4-launchpad48$95,697$8,7002.24gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
02:15rob 0x8c56…7b0cuniswap-v4-launchpad59$36,280$17,3231.95filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:57PONS 0x39db…4571uniswap-v4-launchpad25$5,700,701$97gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:49YIELD 0x5b2c…7515uniswap-v4-launchpad29$6,169$2771.50gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:49NU 0x408c…e250uniswap-v4-launchpad20$55,825$5,2490.82gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:39FUCK 0x0f3b…84c3uniswap-v4-launchpad151$9,688$5,1665.86gateD:liq $9688 < $10000
01:36I 0xa94e…8889pons-v232$20,605$19,4761.35gateD:buy/sell 1.35 < 1.5
01:25SHROOM 0xab09…5b29uniswap-v4-launchpad23$331,861$2,0390.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
01:22🍏 0x8c0d…8e3cuniswap-v4-launchpad23$8,747$2,5310.34gateD:liq $8747 < $10000
01:22MIRAGEFI 0x6d39…f42euniswap-v4-launchpad27$10,518$198gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000
01:17BATWIF 0x67c1…627auniswap-v4-launchpad26$1,346$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:09ROB 0xbfbb…8f04uniswap-v4-launchpad65$50,307$14,1392.67filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:04Billycoin 0x1e73…f022uniswap-v4-launchpad58$52,469$22,6271.67filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
01:02WORKS 0x918c…b854uniswap-v4-launchpad26$13,195$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
01:02vell 0x3275…be9cuniswap-v4-launchpad37$40,986$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool65
gateD:poolMismatch20
gateD:liq12
C:notV2VsWeth11
C:creatorShareUnknown11
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager10
C:swapsH1<2509
gateD:features8
gateD:buy/sell8
C:copycat2
C:lpNotVerifiable:none1
gateD:vol51
C:sellSim1
C:sellSimStale1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

955 refusals checked at +1h so far. 84 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD770-8.4%35
filterC184+65.3%49
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
05:30tipfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-73.7%-65.6%
05:30TREEgateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5d1-93.8%-75.1%
05:30NCLDgateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5d1-46.1%-38.4%
05:30B6PWgateD:vol5 $1621 < $5000d1-12.0%-7.2%
05:30TREEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1-93.8%-85.7%
05:30PLUMEgateD:liq $6901 < $10000h1-69.5%-44.8%
05:30CANALgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+8.7%+4.3%
05:30SNDKgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.1%-2.2%
05:15CRIBgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1-44.9%-40.8%
05:15GlassesgateD:liq $5679 < $10000d1-57.4%-34.8%
05:15SHOPCATgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
05:15SwagcatgateD:liq $5130 < $10000d1-47.1%-27.3%
05:15THCfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+1.8%+1.1%
05:15SHOPPYgateD:liq $7019 < $10000d1-48.3%-43.3%
05:15LUCYgateD:liq $7252 < $10000h1+86.0%+36.4%
05:15ND4DOTETHgateD:liq $7191 < $10000h1-57.9%-51.5%
05:00SHOPCATgateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5d1-77.5%-61.0%
05:00CUPgateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5h1+142.4%+74.6%
05:00PLXMSgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-50.4%-30.0%
04:45SHROOMgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-2.7%-0.5%
04:45ZKSWAPgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-17.3%-9.8%
04:45MSFTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.0%+1.6%
04:45STEPgateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5h1-17.1%-9.1%
04:45FORGEfilterC:sellSimStaled1-95.3%-78.4%
04:30STOCKLESSgateD:vol5 $1703 < $5000d1-73.3%-65.1%
04:30RAREgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1+1.6%+1.5%
04:30MIDORIgateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5h1-47.7%-27.8%
04:30ROKOgateD:buy/sell 1.20 < 1.5h1-84.3%-60.4%
04:30MIDORIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+65.1%+34.3%
04:30MIDORIgateD:liq $7499 < $10000h1-42.8%-24.8%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)