Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 15:12 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$207.61
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
5
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$41.52
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
4.6h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 5s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 8s ago ok
Socket events 5,696 · failsafes 3 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,183 rpc · 650 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

4,436
launches seen
95
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
18
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
5
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
5
opened

Refused: gate B 4,066 · gate D 75 · filter C 13 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 3 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2051-$207.61-$41.52
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (5)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
11:4313:13BNTR 0x12d1…68bbGold v211.3m90m1.36xmax_hold$0.70+1.4%B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket
11:5111:54BUROS 0x1901…ace6Gold v210m3m1.00xstop-$55.00-55.0%B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m
11:2911:31GARDEN 0x5185…0d7aGold v213.9m2m1.00xstop-$65.65-65.7%B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m
10:5711:03Oilinu 0x54b7…d06cGold v213.5m6m1.00xstop-$26.94-53.9%B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket
10:5010:53CHIPR 0x6a80…9469Gold v210.2m3m1.00xstop-$60.72-60.7%B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set540not yet
Running days0.195not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$207.61> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%20%50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 760 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
15:07HAMSTER 0x4fd4…23fcpons-v229$8,437$9,9091.16gateD:liq $8437 < $10000
15:00HODLster 0x974e…39ecpons-v220$5,368$6,7820.85gateD:liq $5368 < $10000
14:59HODLster 0x31a0…d7d5pons-v226$47,143$681,4560.96gateD:buy/sell 0.96 < 1.5
14:54NIGGER 0xe487…8767pons-v222$7,014$11,9640.72gateD:liq $7014 < $10000
14:42USBDC 0xfd14…83aepons-v248$5$5gateD:liq $5 < $10000
14:26USBDC 0x15b3…6871pons-v246$20,489$19,2651.33gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5
14:24USBDC 0x5bdf…7a68pons-v283$3$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
14:22MOOB 0x622b…b914pons-v238$19,875$47,0491.26gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5
14:20BESSENT 0x6aa5…f398pons-v234$4,533$510.00gateD:liq $4533 < $10000
14:18BESSENT 0x6df9…5665pons-v229$18,393$40,5571.09gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5
13:53SINE 0xc1b8…45a8uniswap-v4-launchpad137$87,560$25,2302.04filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
13:51CLAUDEHOOD 0x13c9…397apons-v252$15,528$15,1021.53filterC:sellSimStale
13:38MISAN 0xb55b…e8c9uniswap-v4-launchpad166$115,607$85,1902.30filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
13:35CONTRABAND 0x775a…b7afuniswap-v4-launchpad169$125,435$48,6412.29filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
13:29MISAN 0x38ca…9771uniswap-v4-launchpad131$95,678$44,1383.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
13:24MISAN 0x433c…a1b8pons-v248$22,869$44,4631.52filterC:sellSimStale
13:22iPod 0xe8d8…d080pons-v255$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:56TradeX 0xa332…fe55uniswap-v4-launchpad150$99,201$24,9811.89filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:55TradeX 0x0840…5ecauniswap-v4-launchpad175$148,416$46,8041.70filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:29AUGUR 0xe406…13c6uniswap-v4-launchpad126$72,150$36,3631.81filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:27ROBINHASH 0x3243…4f5buniswap-v4-launchpad71$59,796$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:25Plinkons 0x1a16…9278uniswap-v4-launchpad25$41,896$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:22WSB 0xae16…1c14uniswap-v4-launchpad34$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:20WSB 0x2382…b40epons-v258$6,234$4430.30gateD:liq $6234 < $10000
12:19fruitfly 0xe85d…b2ebuniswap-v4-launchpad35$49,430$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:15O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201uniswap-v4-launchpad26$153,552$2,4542.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:11fruitfly 0x1983…9549uniswap-v4-launchpad214$36,063$36,4411.50gateD:buy/sell 1.50 < 1.5
12:10PYO 0x188b…900buniswap-v4-launchpad30$5,475$60.00gateD:liq $5475 < $10000
12:05AUGUR 0xbacb…128auniswap-v4-launchpad32$41,252$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:59VEEF 0x2f1a…aba3uniswap-v4-launchpad27$11,172$4890.86gateD:vol5 $489 < $5000
11:51BUROS 0x1901…ace6uniswap-v4-launchpad152$23,903$14,3161.84ADMITTED
11:48COINFLIP 0x0476…5d9cuniswap-v4-launchpad24$31,820$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:43ROBINRANGE 0x3a42…0022uniswap-v4-launchpad31$18,534$1,8711.64gateD:vol5 $1871 < $5000
11:43BNTR 0x12d1…68bbuniswap-v4-launchpad50$20,776$7,1751.52ADMITTED
11:40ROBINHASH 0x1173…e787uniswap-v4-launchpad123$43,173$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:34AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9uniswap-v4-launchpad24$330,172$9,1512.47gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
11:32NEKO 0x8c5a…7335uniswap-v4-launchpad67$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:29GARDEN 0x5185…0d7auniswap-v4-launchpad88$21,757$16,6701.70ADMITTED
11:24NEKO 0x9923…d0a3uniswap-v4-launchpad257$20,402$28,8331.74filterC:sellSimStale
11:20Hoper 0x6002…5cccuniswap-v4-launchpad292$29,962$131,8551.10gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool31
gateD:features13
gateD:poolMismatch12
C:notV2VsWeth9
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager9
C:creatorShareUnknown9
gateD:liq9
gateD:buy/sell7
C:sellSimStale4
C:swapsH1<2504
gateD:vol53

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

715 refusals checked at +1h so far. 57 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD581-6.4%27
filterC133+72.2%30
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
15:00qINUgateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5d1-97.2%-83.2%
15:00qINUfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownd1+52.6%+30.3%
15:00MEMORYfilterC:sellSimd1-13.2%-12.2%
15:00QIgateD:buy/sell 0.68 < 1.5d1-52.6%-44.6%
15:00OHgateD:liq $8032 < $10000d1-28.0%-22.8%
15:00CLAUDEHOODfilterC:sellSimStaleh1-92.0%-71.8%
15:00SINEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-2.8%-1.9%
14:45MISANfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-20.7%-13.4%
14:45CONTRABANDfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-26.0%-16.8%
14:30iPodgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
14:30MISANfilterC:sellSimStaleh1-77.7%-52.8%
14:30MISANfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%
14:00TradeXfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+33.6%+18.1%
14:00TradeXfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-28.4%-19.2%
13:30O1BOTgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+15.2%+7.1%
13:30fruitflygateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
13:30WSBgateD:liq $6234 < $10000h1-36.4%-20.2%
13:30WSBgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
13:30PlinkonsgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
13:30ROBINHASHgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
13:30AUGURfilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+38.4%-100.0%
13:30SiriusgateD:liq $6444 < $10000d1-56.6%-34.1%
13:15VENNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:15VENNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:15VENNgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offsetd1n/an/a
13:15AUGURgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
13:15PYOgateD:liq $5475 < $10000h1-18.6%-9.9%
13:15fruitflygateD:buy/sell 1.50 < 1.5h1-53.5%-32.2%
13:00SGOVgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)d1-0.0%+19.3%
13:00RECOVERgateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000d1-83.7%-59.4%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)