Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 23:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.0h
since 08 Sept, 23:30 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 10s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 11s ago ok
Socket events 84 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 8 rpc · 0 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

76
launches seen
0
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
0
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
0
opened

Refused: gate B 0 · gate D 0 · filter C 0 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2000$0.00n/a
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (0)

none yet

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set040not yet
Running days0.005not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact$0.00> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%n/a50 to 73%not yet
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00not yet
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 536 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
22:53RUB 0x40ae…6624uniswap-v4-launchpad51$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:53JEW 0xc5a9…38d1uniswap-v4-launchpad264$235$2440.60gateD:liq $235 < $10000
22:53GTACRYPTO 0x3aba…aac2pons-v226$2,975$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:53SNACKBITS 0xccc9…6913pons-v221$3,769$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:51OG 0x6460…d923uniswap-v4-launchpad20$6,585$52gateD:liq $6585 < $10000
22:51LCN 0x4190…de4apons-v222$5,208$2,0561.33gateD:liq $5208 < $10000
22:51MUSE 0x71b6…a5eduniswap-v4-launchpad42$48,592$18,9741.24gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:51DFC 0xbca7…94f0uniswap-v4-launchpad22$121,893$18,2181.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:51OG.COM 0x8147…8fe2uniswap-v4-launchpad35$6,830$1,5460.91gateD:liq $6830 < $10000
22:51GOOGL 0x2e08…4fe3uniswap-v4-launchpad25$532,929$4,2191.22gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:51CRUMBS 0x6b73…8c80uniswap-v4-launchpad71$14,765$6,8131.21gateD:buy/sell 1.21 < 1.5
22:51LISTED 0x398a…897cuniswap-v4-launchpad66$50,797$187,3031.02gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5
22:47BUDDY 0x0b73…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad65$38,407$7,8774.77filterC:sellSim
22:47SPY 0x117c…4c0cuniswap-v4-launchpad21$1,933,730$39,7551.57gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:47PYRE 0x0d11…eeeduniswap-v4-launchpad42$55,101$16,1691.61filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
22:45OG.COM 0x8147…8fe2pons-v221$8,313$8,8190.84gateD:liq $8313 < $10000
22:45NVDA 0xd060…9eecuniswap-v4-launchpad26$7,388,642$121,6181.01gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
22:45LISTED 0x398a…897cuniswap-v4-launchpad178$66,338$228,0241.01gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5
22:45OG 0x6460…d923uniswap-v4-launchpad87$6,487$7730.71gateD:liq $6487 < $10000
22:44PYRE 0x0d11…eeeduniswap-v4-launchpad288$61,122$50,0771.76filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
22:21MUSE 0x83a2…ae5euniswap-v4-launchpad68$5,469$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:19CTDL 0x9ada…2053uniswap-v4-launchpad240$20,964$24,7511.59filterC:sellSim
22:17PLINKO 0x7fa8…caa7uniswap-v4-launchpad25$8,780$2020.00gateD:liq $8780 < $10000
22:17HAPPY LIFE 0x12ad…7a32uniswap-v4-launchpad39$6,412$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:17HAPPYLIFE 0xcf6b…1cf9uniswap-v4-launchpad312$10,258$3,8961.63gateD:vol5 $3896 < $5000
22:14MUSE 0xc96e…e38cuniswap-v4-launchpad50$57,401$18,2492.25filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
22:13MUSE 0xd95c…6e01uniswap-v4-launchpad22$43,187$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:13museband 0x0d09…3f5buniswap-v4-launchpad41$4,853$4240.50gateD:liq $4853 < $10000
22:11PYRE 0x0922…d46euniswap-v4-launchpad27$3,858$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:11MUSE 0xf6b4…9685uniswap-v4-launchpad102$5,371$4,6791.00gateD:liq $5371 < $10000
22:11MUSE 0xc73a…0042uniswap-v4-launchpad20$5,289$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:09micropenis 0x7fab…26f5uniswap-v4-launchpad82$5,375$3,0820.22gateD:liq $5375 < $10000
22:07WAGIE 0x7653…dd01uniswap-v4-launchpad222$19,931$2,8131.86gateD:vol5 $2813 < $5000
22:06WORM 0x3ba5…c09duniswap-v4-launchpad338$53,727$65,9951.53filterC:sellSimStale
22:06Adam 0x91a9…35a3uniswap-v4-launchpad38$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
22:06PVE 0x74ea…ad1buniswap-v4-launchpad57$16,111$15,8190.92gateD:buy/sell 0.92 < 1.5
22:05ALPHY 0x4631…98e5uniswap-v4-launchpad95$15,420$10,8680.72gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5
22:04ZKSWAP 0x91f9…bdb0uniswap-v4-launchpad151$20,469$14,4041.70filterC:sellSim
22:04CSM 0xa1a7…23b8uniswap-v4-launchpad135$6,181$230.33gateD:liq $6181 < $10000
22:02AYLES 0x62e2…04a8uniswap-v4-launchpad38$4,692$240.00gateD:liq $4692 < $10000

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
none

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

495 refusals checked at +1h so far. 38 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD399-13.4%16
filterC95+89.1%22
+5m honeypot veto10.0%0
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
23:30HAPPY LIFEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-10.0%-5.2%
23:30HAPPYLIFEgateD:vol5 $3896 < $5000h1-82.4%-58.1%
23:30CTDLfilterC:sellSimh1-93.6%-74.7%
23:30MUSEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-33.9%-18.7%
23:30PLINKOgateD:liq $8780 < $10000h1-10.7%-5.6%
23:15CSMgateD:liq $6181 < $10000h1-29.4%-16.1%
23:15ZKSWAPfilterC:sellSimh1+0.2%+0.1%
23:15ALPHYgateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5h1-52.6%-31.2%
23:15AdamgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
23:15PVEgateD:buy/sell 0.92 < 1.5h1-95.6%-79.0%
23:15WORMfilterC:sellSimStaleh1-27.9%-15.1%
23:15WAGIEgateD:vol5 $2813 < $5000h1-85.2%-73.1%
23:15micropenisgateD:liq $5375 < $10000h1-13.9%-7.6%
23:15PYREgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-2.4%-2.4%
23:15MUSEgateD:liq $5371 < $10000h1-40.9%-23.1%
23:15MUSEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-49.3%-28.8%
23:15musebandgateD:liq $4853 < $10000h1-24.8%-13.3%
23:15MUSEgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
23:15MUSEfilterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+53.7%+34.5%
23:15AdStocksgateD:liq $5106 < $10000h1-3.6%-1.8%
23:15SAFEHOUSEgateD:buy/sell 1.25 < 1.5h1-93.1%-73.7%
23:15MUSEgateD:liq $7137 < $10000h1-69.8%-45.1%
23:15MUSEgateD:liq $5884 < $10000h1-57.2%-34.6%
23:15UNCSfilterC:sellSimh1-72.1%-47.3%
23:15AYLESgateD:liq $4692 < $10000h1-0.5%-0.4%
23:00SPRLgateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5h1+43.0%+19.4%
23:00AMDAgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1-0.1%-0.0%
23:00CPIgateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5h1+156.2%+59.6%
23:00SEARCHXgateD:liq $5006 < $10000h1-11.5%-6.1%
23:00WILLgateD:liq $4339 < $10000h1-100.0%-100.0%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)