Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 11:34 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$153.31
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
3
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$51.10
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
1.0h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 24s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 26s ago ok
Socket events 796 · failsafes 2 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 486 rpc · 129 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
557
launches seen
→
35
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
7
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
3
opened
Refused: gate B 263 · gate D 20 · filter C 4 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -$153.31 | -$51.10 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (3)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:29 | 11:31 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$65.65 | -65.7% | B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 10:57 | 11:03 | Oilinu 0x54b7…d06c | Gold v2 | 13.5m | 6m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.94 | -53.9% | B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 10:50 | 10:53 | CHIPR 0x6a80…9469 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$60.72 | -60.7% | B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 3 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.04 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$153.31 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 0% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 724 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:32 | NEKO 0x8c5a…7335 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:29 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $21,757 | $16,670 | 1.70 | ADMITTED |
| 11:24 | NEKO 0x9923…d0a3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 257 | $20,402 | $28,833 | 1.74 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 11:20 | Hoper 0x6002…5ccc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 292 | $29,962 | $131,855 | 1.10 | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 |
| 11:19 | PAIRFORGE 0xc02c…dbfb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 144 | $8,199 | $4,535 | 0.64 | gateD:liq $8199 < $10000 |
| 11:18 | CLAWDHOOD 0x50ec…db9b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 184 | $74,625 | $40,251 | 0.84 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:14 | RECEIPT 0xb97d…34ee | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $145,082 | $2,465 | 0.67 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:14 | CITY 0xf17d…0f0d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $86,614 | $23,859 | 1.81 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 11:13 | CITY 0x0f7a…474d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 214 | $4,246 | $6,499 | 0.54 | gateD:liq $4246 < $10000 |
| 11:05 | tip 0x2f1e…8545 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 75 | $71,111 | $19,247 | 0.48 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:01 | ODYSSEY 0x0841…b16c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $5,634 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:59 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 80 | $366,220 | $19,463 | 0.73 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:58 | SPIN 0xf7e9…62ce | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $105,167 | $49,868 | 1.54 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 10:58 | FRCT 0x32e7…beab | pons-v2 | 55 | $16,359 | $2,155 | 1.33 | gateD:vol5 $2155 < $5000 |
| 10:57 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $7,916,288 | $25,393 | 1.05 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:57 | Oilinu 0x54b7…d06c | pons-v2 | 46 | $12,048 | $7,555 | 2.74 | ADMITTED |
| 10:55 | ZZZ 0x7dbf…ee6a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $745,723 | $52,347 | 1.37 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:55 | discord 0x0383…2f16 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 155 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:54 | SPIN 0x3c6d…16a3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 10:53 | DRILL 0xd9d6…8fca | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 96 | $765,503 | $53,144 | 1.47 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:53 | MANY 0xa269…287d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $53,971 | $7,754 | 0.74 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:52 | DOGSHIT 0x905b…5dd3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $47,182 | $5,122 | 1.25 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:52 | SPIN 0x5061…4fcb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 324 | $12,756 | $13,245 | 1.01 | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 |
| 10:52 | PARLEY 0xcf3d…6c05 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $79,821 | $18,399 | 1.52 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 10:50 | CHIPR 0x6a80…9469 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 104 | $23,252 | $10,707 | 1.63 | ADMITTED |
| 10:48 | $PHUB 0xbec2…9999 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $21,193 | $16,280 | 1.92 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 10:18 | H100 0xc216…d6b0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 115 | $45,506 | $19,979 | 0.86 | gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5 |
| 10:16 | H100 0x76f6…de6f | pons-v2 | 45 | $20,121 | $85,249 | 1.30 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 |
| 10:15 | BILLY 0xe9a7…8a80 | pons-v2 | 57 | $7,795 | $3,028 | 2.19 | gateD:liq $7795 < $10000 |
| 09:57 | DUMMAHUE 0x554d…02be | pons-v2 | 33 | $8,212 | $2,349 | 0.40 | gateD:liq $8212 < $10000 |
| 09:55 | V 0x608f…0a99 | pons-v2 | 72 | $48,618 | $226,231 | 2.13 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 09:46 | CLAWDHOOD 0x50ec…db9b | pons-v2 | 29 | $45,472 | $352,698 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 09:44 | Termino 0x8237…ac50 | pons-v2 | 22 | $22,478 | $27,311 | 1.54 | ADMITTED |
| 09:16 | QUANTUMLAB 0xbfd0…0101 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $18,235 | $4,499 | 1.28 | gateD:vol5 $4499 < $5000 |
| 09:12 | NIXI 0xdd3b…88d3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $66,268 | $63,753 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 08:59 | PUSHWORK 0x318a…b4b4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:45 | FINE 0x68d3…7ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $18,738 | $5,249 | 0.67 | gateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5 |
| 08:33 | CHROME 0xce13…001d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 75 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:31 | BABIES 0x8482…e9cc | pons-v2 | 20 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:29 | Joe 0x211e…2d3e | pons-v2 | 47 | $20,284 | $83,016 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| gateD:poolMismatch | 10 |
| gateD:features | 4 |
| C:sellSimStale | 2 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 2 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 2 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 2 |
| gateD:liq | 2 |
| no priced pool | 1 |
| gateD:vol5 | 1 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
668 refusals checked at +1h so far. 56 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 547 | -5.9% | 27 |
| filterC | 120 | +81.8% | 29 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | Quiver | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +132.4% | +52.9% |
| 11:30 | OTC | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +1372.2% | +399.6% |
| 11:30 | ROCK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:30 | HEDGE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -25.9% | -13.1% |
| 11:30 | BILLY | gateD:liq $7795 < $10000 | h1 | -31.1% | -17.0% |
| 11:30 | H100 | gateD:buy/sell 1.30 < 1.5 | h1 | -52.9% | -31.3% |
| 11:30 | H100 | gateD:buy/sell 0.86 < 1.5 | h1 | -2.2% | -1.7% |
| 11:15 | Scarce | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -62.6% | -47.0% |
| 11:15 | Scarce | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:15 | FloorPad | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | +8.0% | +4.7% |
| 11:15 | MEMORY | gateD:vol5 $1463 < $5000 | d1 | -76.6% | -65.4% |
| 11:00 | Scarce | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -53.5% | -32.8% |
| 11:00 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.1% | -71.3% |
| 11:00 | REJECTED | gateD:liq $4018 < $10000 | d1 | -8.7% | -8.5% |
| 11:00 | PTP | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:00 | PTP | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 11:00 | memory | gateD:liq $4948 < $10000 | d1 | -9.2% | -9.0% |
| 11:00 | CLAWDHOOD | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 | h1 | +43.5% | +19.8% |
| 11:00 | V | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -99.1% | -90.4% |
| 11:00 | DUMMAHUE | gateD:liq $8212 < $10000 | h1 | -57.1% | -34.4% |
| 11:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -2.2% | +15.9% |
| 10:45 | NAVIERSTOKES | gateD:vol5 $2687 < $5000 | d1 | -47.2% | -39.9% |
| 10:45 | OTTI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 10:45 | AI | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | +6.5% | +4.7% |
| 10:45 | RPG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -90.3% | -68.9% |
| 10:45 | OTTI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 10:45 | HEIST | gateD:vol5 $3079 < $5000 | d1 | -88.6% | -66.2% |
| 10:30 | STRATTON | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -60.8% | -37.6% |
| 10:30 | Navier | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +17.9% | +10.9% |
| 10:30 | ⅄ | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)