Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 15:12 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$207.61
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
5
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$41.52
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
4.6h
since 09 Sept, 10:36 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 5s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 8s ago ok
Socket events 5,696 · failsafes 3 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,183 rpc · 650 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
4,436
launches seen
→
95
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
18
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
5
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
5
opened
Refused: gate B 4,066 · gate D 75 · filter C 13 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 3 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -$207.61 | -$41.52 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (5)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:43 | 13:13 | BNTR 0x12d1…68bb | Gold v2 | 11.3m | 90m | 1.36x | max_hold | $0.70 | +1.4% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $20776 vol5 $7175 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 11:51 | 11:54 | BUROS 0x1901…ace6 | Gold v2 | 10m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$55.00 | -55.0% | B:152 buyers · D:liq $23903 vol5 $14316 b/s 1.84 · C:allowlist · size-up:152 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:29 | 11:31 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | Gold v2 | 13.9m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$65.65 | -65.7% | B:88 buyers · D:liq $21757 vol5 $16670 b/s 1.70 · C:allowlist · size-up:103 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 10:57 | 11:03 | Oilinu 0x54b7…d06c | Gold v2 | 13.5m | 6m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.94 | -53.9% | B:46 buyers · D:liq $12048 vol5 $7555 b/s 2.74 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 10:50 | 10:53 | CHIPR 0x6a80…9469 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$60.72 | -60.7% | B:104 buyers · D:liq $23252 vol5 $10707 b/s 1.63 · C:allowlist · size-up:105 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 5 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.19 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$207.61 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 20% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 760 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:07 | HAMSTER 0x4fd4…23fc | pons-v2 | 29 | $8,437 | $9,909 | 1.16 | gateD:liq $8437 < $10000 |
| 15:00 | HODLster 0x974e…39ec | pons-v2 | 20 | $5,368 | $6,782 | 0.85 | gateD:liq $5368 < $10000 |
| 14:59 | HODLster 0x31a0…d7d5 | pons-v2 | 26 | $47,143 | $681,456 | 0.96 | gateD:buy/sell 0.96 < 1.5 |
| 14:54 | NIGGER 0xe487…8767 | pons-v2 | 22 | $7,014 | $11,964 | 0.72 | gateD:liq $7014 < $10000 |
| 14:42 | USBDC 0xfd14…83ae | pons-v2 | 48 | $5 | $5 | gateD:liq $5 < $10000 | |
| 14:26 | USBDC 0x15b3…6871 | pons-v2 | 46 | $20,489 | $19,265 | 1.33 | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 |
| 14:24 | USBDC 0x5bdf…7a68 | pons-v2 | 83 | $3 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 14:22 | MOOB 0x622b…b914 | pons-v2 | 38 | $19,875 | $47,049 | 1.26 | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 |
| 14:20 | BESSENT 0x6aa5…f398 | pons-v2 | 34 | $4,533 | $51 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4533 < $10000 |
| 14:18 | BESSENT 0x6df9…5665 | pons-v2 | 29 | $18,393 | $40,557 | 1.09 | gateD:buy/sell 1.09 < 1.5 |
| 13:53 | SINE 0xc1b8…45a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 137 | $87,560 | $25,230 | 2.04 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:51 | CLAUDEHOOD 0x13c9…397a | pons-v2 | 52 | $15,528 | $15,102 | 1.53 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 13:38 | MISAN 0xb55b…e8c9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $115,607 | $85,190 | 2.30 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:35 | CONTRABAND 0x775a…b7af | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 169 | $125,435 | $48,641 | 2.29 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:29 | MISAN 0x38ca…9771 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 131 | $95,678 | $44,138 | 3.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 13:24 | MISAN 0x433c…a1b8 | pons-v2 | 48 | $22,869 | $44,463 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 13:22 | iPod 0xe8d8…d080 | pons-v2 | 55 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:56 | TradeX 0xa332…fe55 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 150 | $99,201 | $24,981 | 1.89 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:55 | TradeX 0x0840…5eca | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 175 | $148,416 | $46,804 | 1.70 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:29 | AUGUR 0xe406…13c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 126 | $72,150 | $36,363 | 1.81 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 12:27 | ROBINHASH 0x3243…4f5b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 71 | $59,796 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:25 | Plinkons 0x1a16…9278 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $41,896 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:22 | WSB 0xae16…1c14 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:20 | WSB 0x2382…b40e | pons-v2 | 58 | $6,234 | $443 | 0.30 | gateD:liq $6234 < $10000 |
| 12:19 | fruitfly 0xe85d…b2eb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $49,430 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 12:15 | O1BOT 0xf7d7…b201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $153,552 | $2,454 | 2.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 12:11 | fruitfly 0x1983…9549 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 214 | $36,063 | $36,441 | 1.50 | gateD:buy/sell 1.50 < 1.5 |
| 12:10 | PYO 0x188b…900b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $5,475 | $6 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5475 < $10000 |
| 12:05 | AUGUR 0xbacb…128a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $41,252 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:59 | VEEF 0x2f1a…aba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $11,172 | $489 | 0.86 | gateD:vol5 $489 < $5000 |
| 11:51 | BUROS 0x1901…ace6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 152 | $23,903 | $14,316 | 1.84 | ADMITTED |
| 11:48 | COINFLIP 0x0476…5d9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $31,820 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:43 | ROBINRANGE 0x3a42…0022 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $18,534 | $1,871 | 1.64 | gateD:vol5 $1871 < $5000 |
| 11:43 | BNTR 0x12d1…68bb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $20,776 | $7,175 | 1.52 | ADMITTED |
| 11:40 | ROBINHASH 0x1173…e787 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 123 | $43,173 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:34 | AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $330,172 | $9,151 | 2.47 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 11:32 | NEKO 0x8c5a…7335 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 11:29 | GARDEN 0x5185…0d7a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $21,757 | $16,670 | 1.70 | ADMITTED |
| 11:24 | NEKO 0x9923…d0a3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 257 | $20,402 | $28,833 | 1.74 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 11:20 | Hoper 0x6002…5ccc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 292 | $29,962 | $131,855 | 1.10 | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 31 |
| gateD:features | 13 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 12 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 9 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 9 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 9 |
| gateD:liq | 9 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 7 |
| C:sellSimStale | 4 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 4 |
| gateD:vol5 | 3 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
715 refusals checked at +1h so far. 57 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 581 | -6.4% | 27 |
| filterC | 133 | +72.2% | 30 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | qINU | gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5 | d1 | -97.2% | -83.2% |
| 15:00 | qINU | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +52.6% | +30.3% |
| 15:00 | MEMORY | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -13.2% | -12.2% |
| 15:00 | QI | gateD:buy/sell 0.68 < 1.5 | d1 | -52.6% | -44.6% |
| 15:00 | OH | gateD:liq $8032 < $10000 | d1 | -28.0% | -22.8% |
| 15:00 | CLAUDEHOOD | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -92.0% | -71.8% |
| 15:00 | SINE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -2.8% | -1.9% |
| 14:45 | MISAN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -20.7% | -13.4% |
| 14:45 | CONTRABAND | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -26.0% | -16.8% |
| 14:30 | iPod | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:30 | MISAN | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -77.7% | -52.8% |
| 14:30 | MISAN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14:00 | TradeX | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +33.6% | +18.1% |
| 14:00 | TradeX | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -28.4% | -19.2% |
| 13:30 | O1BOT | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +15.2% | +7.1% |
| 13:30 | fruitfly | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13:30 | WSB | gateD:liq $6234 < $10000 | h1 | -36.4% | -20.2% |
| 13:30 | WSB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 13:30 | Plinkons | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13:30 | ROBINHASH | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13:30 | AUGUR | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +38.4% | -100.0% |
| 13:30 | Sirius | gateD:liq $6444 < $10000 | d1 | -56.6% | -34.1% |
| 13:15 | VENN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:15 | VENN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:15 | VENN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 13:15 | AUGUR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13:15 | PYO | gateD:liq $5475 < $10000 | h1 | -18.6% | -9.9% |
| 13:15 | fruitfly | gateD:buy/sell 1.50 < 1.5 | h1 | -53.5% | -32.2% |
| 13:00 | SGOV | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.0% | +19.3% |
| 13:00 | RECOVER | gateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000 | d1 | -83.7% | -59.4% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)