Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 12 Sept, 01:00 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.3h
since 12 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 12s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 13s ago ok
Socket events 531 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 110 rpc · 28 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
335
launches seen
→
12
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
0
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 87 · gate D 5 · filter C 0 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.01 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1797 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:58 | ITEMS 0xd388…6151 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 405 | $50,295 | $144,550 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 00:58 | ImflybrainBOT 0x5821…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 145 | $14,907 | $6 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $6 < $5000 |
| 00:55 | HASH 0xca75…0020 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $122,628 | $11,252 | 1.29 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:39 | JOURNEY 0x24bc…55cc | pons-v2 | 30 | $13,033 | $7,767 | 1.72 | filterC:sellSim |
| 00:29 | JOE 0xb253…a243 | pons-v2 | 33 | $5,249 | $151 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 |
| 00:27 | DUCKY 0x0abf…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $25,115 | $45 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $45 < $5000 |
| 00:23 | ALLI 0x3bd6…5555 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $8,652 | $3,774 | 1.60 | gateD:liq $8652 < $10000 |
| 00:17 | Rabbit 0x2348…5717 | pons-v2 | 41 | $4,921 | $22 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4921 < $10000 |
| 00:13 | Jensen 0x8209…8ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $10,999 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:11 | ZALA 0x1b83…63f9 | pons-v2 | 22 | $17,776 | $35,508 | 1.52 | filterC:sellSim |
| 00:06 | TNON 0xd9df…4588 | pons-v2 | 23 | $5,517 | $1,401 | 0.80 | gateD:liq $5517 < $10000 |
| 00:05 | PENDLE 0x5e49…2e0e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 161 | $113,809 | $3,488 | 2.33 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:52 | SPARKY 0x51e4…e059 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $8,681 | $496 | 0.20 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:48 | Tokenization 0x1c33…4ebb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $3,269 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:48 | TOKENIZATION 0x844b…b13f | pons-v2 | 46 | $6,692 | $7,311 | 0.78 | gateD:liq $6692 < $10000 |
| 23:46 | TOKENIZATION 0x259b…2008 | pons-v2 | 29 | $5,962 | $1,391 | 0.83 | gateD:liq $5962 < $10000 |
| 23:46 | TOKENIZATION 0x2bf6…de70 | pons-v2 | 31 | $5,007 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:46 | TOKENIZATION 0xbdab…0c68 | pons-v2 | 49 | $6,873 | $90,663 | 0.96 | gateD:liq $6873 < $10000 |
| 23:44 | TOKEN 0x1dce…3143 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $26,923 | $40 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:44 | BASKET 0x162a…2dbd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $305 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:42 | COMPANY 0x90cd…0af4 | pons-v2 | 28 | $4,625 | $3 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4625 < $10000 |
| 23:41 | GAL 0x9676…bd92 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 104 | $148,777 | $66,464 | 2.24 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:41 | GAL 0x5585…6a49 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 214 | $57,674 | $58,563 | 1.27 | gateD:buy/sell 1.27 < 1.5 |
| 23:38 | ALLINU 0xe51e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $24,628 | $29 | 0.00 | gateD:vol5 $29 < $5000 |
| 23:30 | FORESKIN 0x0e73…36ae | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $64,758 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 23:26 | MOONCAT 0xd91c…733f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $41,661 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:25 | DKNG 0x439b…c388 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $51,230 | $18,056 | 1.84 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:22 | MOONCAT 0x0841…bc89 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 70 | $81,340 | $34,776 | 2.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:18 | GRAMS 0x29a2…2475 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $52,837 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:17 | WEI 0x7d74…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $22,728 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:11 | SNORT 0x518f…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $34,341 | $614 | 1.50 | gateD:vol5 $614 < $5000 |
| 23:09 | MEMEFI 0x3ab5…2c46 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $6,421 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 23:06 | Paz 0x9adc…6c73 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $48,552 | $6,670 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:02 | PURPLE 0xd632…481d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $3,465 | $30 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $3465 < $10000 |
| 23:01 | Doggo 0x6c7a…8b9d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $35,702 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:59 | Clarity 0xca28…0848 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $59,204 | $16,866 | 1.89 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:59 | PUPPER 0x4325…95c2 | pons-v2 | 20 | $8,505 | $13,166 | 0.98 | gateD:liq $8505 < $10000 |
| 22:57 | BROWNCEY 0xf310…8445 | pons-v2 | 35 | $12,040 | $19,577 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 22:49 | Doggo 0x5cad…926d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 193 | $13,915 | $106,705 | 1.02 | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 |
| 22:47 | Paz 0x541d…060b | pons-v2 | 52 | $7,140 | $6,770 | 0.60 | gateD:liq $7140 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 2 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 1 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 1 |
| gateD:vol5 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1712 refusals checked at +1h so far. 161 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1358 | -8.2% | 69 |
| filterC | 351 | +53.3% | 92 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:45 | ALLINU | gateD:vol5 $29 < $5000 | h1 | -7.1% | -6.8% |
| 00:45 | GAL | gateD:buy/sell 1.27 < 1.5 | h1 | +6.4% | +3.2% |
| 00:45 | GAL | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +64.8% | +33.0% |
| 00:45 | COMPANY | gateD:liq $4625 < $10000 | h1 | +7.7% | +3.8% |
| 00:45 | TOKEN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -4.1% | -2.0% |
| 00:45 | BASKET | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| 00:45 | FORESKIN | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -9.0% | -5.2% |
| 00:30 | X | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 | d1 | -3.6% | -0.9% |
| 00:30 | WEI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -5.7% | -5.4% |
| 00:30 | GRAMS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 00:30 | MOONCAT | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +10.4% | +6.6% |
| 00:30 | DKNG | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +99.1% | +61.4% |
| 00:30 | MOONCAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 00:15 | PURPLE | gateD:liq $3465 < $10000 | h1 | -17.4% | -14.6% |
| 00:15 | Paz | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 00:15 | MEMEFI | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| 00:15 | SNORT | gateD:vol5 $614 < $5000 | h1 | -14.2% | -11.7% |
| 00:15 | Doggo | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 00:00 | JIM | gateD:liq $8666 < $10000 | h1 | +8.9% | +4.3% |
| 00:00 | Paz | gateD:liq $7140 < $10000 | h1 | -35.5% | -19.7% |
| 00:00 | Doggo | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 | h1 | -87.3% | -64.4% |
| 00:00 | BROWNCEY | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | h1 | -78.7% | -53.9% |
| 00:00 | PUPPER | gateD:liq $8505 < $10000 | h1 | -45.6% | -26.2% |
| 00:00 | Clarity | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -12.1% | -9.0% |
| 23:45 | FLORES | gateD:vol5 $86 < $5000 | h1 | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 23:45 | MOTH | gateD:liq $4996 < $10000 | h1 | -27.2% | -14.7% |
| 23:45 | DEEP | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +103.3% | +53.9% |
| 23:45 | CHIPICAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -14.8% | -7.7% |
| 23:45 | COCAINU | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +12.1% | +9.8% |
| 23:45 | STRAT | gateD:vol5 $3067 < $5000 | h1 | +143.7% | +60.8% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)