Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 23:24 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 23s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 26s ago ok
Socket events 1,610 · failsafes 6 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 235 rpc · 40 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
1,275
launches seen
→
21
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
2
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 832 · gate D 16 · filter C 2 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.04 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 971 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:23 | baton 0xd20e…5b7a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $55,184 | $20,742 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:15 | GRASS 0x1639…f84b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $111,057 | $4,326 | 0.91 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:09 | DGAME 0x7aaf…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $28,865 | $5,310 | 0.59 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:04 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $2,090,570 | $34,576 | 0.34 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:55 | HAIRBALLS 0xbbde…0511 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $7,754 | $1,757 | 0.87 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:55 | STM 0xcf34…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $24,679 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:52 | SLAWTH 0x9ee4…8b8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $61,679 | $21,537 | 2.29 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:52 | CLUBY 0x7f26…c376 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $47,084 | $15,720 | 1.02 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:52 | AI 0x2e8c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $5,257,492 | $41,070 | 0.15 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:52 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $8,374,524 | $96,384 | 0.45 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:45 | HOOD 0x3321…588f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 256 | $7,082 | $7,729 | 0.98 | gateD:liq $7082 < $10000 |
| 21:42 | XLG 0xae0b…cf8d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $92,342 | $24,943 | 1.65 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:42 | JOZ 0xa244…2cbd | pons-v2 | 40 | $4,984 | $196 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4984 < $10000 |
| 21:42 | QUBT 0x8e5e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $20,750 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:40 | Course 0xa9b8…46f3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $56,181 | $15,204 | 2.06 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:36 | MARIO 0x5faa…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:36 | WEALTH 0x4aa6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $20,863 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 21:36 | ZORA 0x3344…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $5,518 | $378 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $5518 < $10000 |
| 21:31 | SKYNET 0x3406…d906 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $48,246 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:31 | Transfer 0x774a…4ad0 | pons-v2 | 34 | $5,031 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:27 | inkky 0xdd88…d699 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $60,526 | $18,439 | 2.27 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:26 | Jackpot 0xdcb3…de21 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $25,153 | $15,022 | 1.14 | gateD:buy/sell 1.14 < 1.5 |
| 21:23 | MEMES 0xf51c…3008 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 53 | $4,438 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:23 | GAGE 0x7163…bc2d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $193,253 | $37,637 | 1.21 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:21 | etn 0x6e7a…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 195 | $16,232 | $414 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $414 < $5000 |
| 21:18 | psyopcat 0xf55f…16b8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 164 | $8,013 | $1,209 | 4.60 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:18 | PCAT 0x6fb2…d137 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 105 | $4,866 | $14 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $4866 < $10000 |
| 21:18 | STOCKTOKEN 0x9fd2…c275 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 70 | $5,734 | $16,700 | 0.68 | gateD:liq $5734 < $10000 |
| 21:16 | STOCKTOKEN 0x8ecc…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 90 | $27,888 | $268 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $268 < $5000 |
| 21:16 | DUO 0x8c76…5ce9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $4,859 | $30 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4859 < $10000 |
| 21:14 | Apes 0xd7fe…9266 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $41,580 | $1,075 | 1.20 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 21:13 | COGN 0x98e5…8ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $8,961 | $25 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $8961 < $10000 |
| 21:11 | DUO 0xaaf8…8120 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 797 | $12,296 | $12,584 | 0.76 | gateD:buy/sell 0.76 < 1.5 |
| 21:10 | WZAI 0x0db8…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 218 | $30,583 | $2,673 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $2673 < $5000 |
| 21:10 | Duo 0x454d…4d39 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $3,818 | $47 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3818 < $10000 |
| 21:10 | IDUO 0x0cd7…be00 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 241 | $6,962 | $774 | 1.43 | gateD:liq $6962 < $10000 |
| 21:09 | DUO 0xf320…0b47 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $100,009 | $47,177 | 1.58 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:07 | OWNERSHIP 0xddf5…c2e3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 230 | $5,810 | $21 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5810 < $10000 |
| 21:07 | OWNERSHIP 0x7016…cac7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 178 | $5,250 | $64 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5250 < $10000 |
| 21:04 | DEPTH 0x96cb…2295 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 79 | $12,870 | $930 | 0.40 | gateD:vol5 $930 < $5000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 7 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 7 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 2 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 2 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 2 |
| gateD:liq | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 1 |
| gateD:features | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
902 refusals checked at +1h so far. 73 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 727 | -8.6% | 32 |
| filterC | 174 | +58.6% | 41 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 | OG.COM | gateD:liq $8313 < $10000 | d1 | -60.3% | -37.0% |
| 23:00 | OG.COM | gateD:liq $6830 < $10000 | d1 | -41.2% | -23.3% |
| 23:00 | NVDA | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.9% | +14.2% |
| 23:00 | LISTED | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 | d1 | -61.9% | -38.5% |
| 23:00 | LISTED | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 | d1 | -35.0% | -19.7% |
| 23:00 | OG | gateD:liq $6487 < $10000 | d1 | -67.7% | -43.1% |
| 23:00 | OG | gateD:liq $6585 < $10000 | d1 | -68.7% | -44.0% |
| 23:00 | PYRE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -9.4% | -5.6% |
| 23:00 | BUDDY | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -10.7% | -7.2% |
| 23:00 | SPY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.7% | +7.3% |
| 23:00 | CRUMBS | gateD:buy/sell 1.21 < 1.5 | d1 | -86.7% | -63.5% |
| 23:00 | LCN | gateD:liq $5208 < $10000 | d1 | -68.5% | -43.6% |
| 23:00 | MUSE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -89.6% | -67.2% |
| 23:00 | DFC | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -38.1% | -25.5% |
| 23:00 | GOOGL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -2.2% | +50.8% |
| 23:00 | RUB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 23:00 | JEW | gateD:liq $235 < $10000 | d1 | -86.0% | -99.4% |
| 23:00 | GTACRYPTO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -9.3% | -4.4% |
| 23:00 | SNACKBITS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -42.5% | -24.1% |
| 22:45 | XLG | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +58.5% | +32.7% |
| 22:45 | JOZ | gateD:liq $4984 < $10000 | h1 | -28.4% | -14.9% |
| 22:45 | PYRE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -27.1% | -15.5% |
| 22:45 | SKYNET | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22:45 | Transfer | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -23.7% | -12.6% |
| 22:45 | MARIO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | n/a | n/a |
| 22:45 | WEALTH | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22:45 | ZORA | gateD:liq $5518 < $10000 | h1 | -9.8% | -8.9% |
| 22:45 | Course | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +23.4% | +15.9% |
| 22:45 | QUBT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 22:30 | PLINKO | gateD:liq $8780 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)