Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 05:40 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$117.94
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
5
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$23.59
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
3.9h
since 08 Sept, 01:43 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 11s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 12s ago ok
Socket events 7,070 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 1,895 rpc · 575 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
4,333
launches seen
→
200
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
17
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
5
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
5
opened
Refused: gate B 3,926 · gate D 175 · filter C 12 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -$117.94 | -$23.59 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (5)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:50 | 05:37 | RVA 0x3d94…5b6d | Gold v2 | 11m | 48m | 1.25x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:49 buyers · D:liq $16976 vol5 $7952 b/s 1.65 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:20 | 04:23 | WWW 0x3a0e…ecf4 | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:33 buyers · D:liq $19090 vol5 $26407 b/s 1.62 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:13 | 03:23 | SWEEP 0x73f6…aed8 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 70m | 1.67x | trail | $9.08 | +9.1% | B:154 buyers · D:liq $14665 vol5 $9554 b/s 1.61 · C:allowlist · size-up:156 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 03:05 | 03:10 | Spyder 0x5f67…975c | Gold v2 | 10.1m | 5m | 1.12x | stop | -$25.58 | -51.2% | B:28 buyers · D:liq $18500 vol5 $28097 b/s 1.56 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:10 | 02:13 | UNITY 0x1fc0…fa41 | Gold v2 | 14.4m | 2m | 1.00x | stop | -$50.28 | -50.3% | B:491 buyers · D:liq $14171 vol5 $13491 b/s 1.79 · C:allowlist · size-up:501 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 5 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.16 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$117.94 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 20% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 180 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:35 | ANYTHINGPAD 0x7fdc…737d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $35,667 | $58,183 | 1.05 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:35 | Layers 0x02a3…b8c3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 239 | $24,951 | $24,564 | 0.61 | gateD:buy/sell 0.61 < 1.5 |
| 05:31 | SOYJAK 0x9b99…368c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $3,878 | $2,161 | 1.14 | gateD:liq $3878 < $10000 |
| 05:31 | CAPITALCAT 0x0521…75c8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 222 | $10,360 | $487 | 0.63 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:30 | CAPITALCAT 0xb1c4…10fc | pons-v2 | 24 | $8,406 | $8,407 | 1.01 | gateD:liq $8406 < $10000 |
| 05:29 | LIENSTRATEGY 0x91cf…e56b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 88 | $83,640 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:29 | unc 0x3fcf…7f85 | pons-v2 | 54 | $8 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:16 | Stockcat 0xe9ca…d64c | pons-v2 | 73 | $6,095 | $369 | 0.17 | gateD:liq $6095 < $10000 |
| 05:13 | FREAK 0x42f2…545a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $59,805 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:11 | SHEEP 0x464b…3043 | pons-v2 | 43 | $12,700 | $14,035 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 05:11 | ECHELON 0x87f1…b326 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $14,030 | $1,196 | 0.80 | gateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000 |
| 05:10 | KEY 0x1f40…a201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $4,132 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:06 | HOUSE 0x0476…f1c9 | pons-v2 | 42 | $5,656 | $256 | gateD:liq $5656 < $10000 | |
| 05:02 | WONKA 0x6157…46b7 | pons-v2 | 41 | $17,210 | $5,273 | 1.89 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 05:01 | KERVON 0x7073…15f7 | pons-v2 | 47 | $3,992 | $143 | 0.06 | gateD:liq $3992 < $10000 |
| 04:57 | FREAK 0xe3c2…3d02 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $23,779 | $9,354 | 2.52 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 04:57 | SXY 0x1a70…43af | pons-v2 | 50 | $6,564 | $11,201 | 0.69 | gateD:liq $6564 < $10000 |
| 04:56 | MILKERS 0x18f9…e8cf | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $5,215 | $21,106 | 1.02 | gateD:liq $5215 < $10000 |
| 04:53 | BITCORN 0x3a48…c7c4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $5,601 | $28,063 | 1.22 | gateD:liq $5601 < $10000 |
| 04:50 | RVA 0x3d94…5b6d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $16,976 | $7,952 | 1.65 | ADMITTED |
| 04:45 | 🅿️ 0xe1e5…cc2d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $104,661 | $12,626 | 1.41 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:44 | HOODCAT 0x2539…88da | pons-v2 | 38 | $23,163 | $37,602 | 1.43 | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 |
| 04:43 | PUMP 0xc15b…b9aa | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $729 | $2,076 | 0.74 | gateD:liq $729 < $10000 |
| 04:39 | AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $257,864 | $5,417 | 0.58 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:38 | Kira 0xc4d7…9c78 | pons-v2 | 62 | $9,498 | $19,424 | 0.81 | gateD:liq $9498 < $10000 |
| 04:36 | CME 0x9591…28ab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $47,600 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:34 | Kira 0x18f9…a7e5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 189 | $91,239 | $37,106 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 04:29 | FUDZ 0x694a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 167 | $27,617 | $10,942 | 1.40 | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 |
| 04:23 | Prometheus 0xfe9f…6783 | pons-v2 | 22 | $6,052 | $1,561 | 0.75 | gateD:liq $6052 < $10000 |
| 04:22 | Prometheus 0x87e7…0f27 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $3,886 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:22 | MOO 0xd9db…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $1,984,023 | $37,401 | 0.53 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:21 | Prometheus 0xb931…49b4 | pons-v2 | 25 | $4,369 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:20 | WWW 0x3a0e…ecf4 | pons-v2 | 33 | $19,090 | $26,407 | 1.62 | ADMITTED |
| 04:19 | Prometheus 0x914f…2f94 | pons-v2 | 44 | $15,730 | $29,806 | 1.46 | gateD:buy/sell 1.46 < 1.5 |
| 04:10 | GOAT 0xa79b…fd65 | pons-v2 | 49 | $9,604 | $15,896 | 0.81 | gateD:liq $9604 < $10000 |
| 04:01 | BUILDR 0x22ea…22c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 159 | $24,565 | $14,123 | 0.91 | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 |
| 04:00 | FLYBRAIN 0xe4fd…964b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 174 | $85,003 | $21,728 | 2.23 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:54 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 94 | $1,247,396 | $72,612 | 0.89 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:52 | COMPUTE 0xd392…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $42,494 | $576 | 0.17 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:51 | SECURTITTIES 0xb10f…57b0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 200 | $73,085 | $16,364 | 0.70 | gateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 87 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 27 |
| gateD:liq | 27 |
| gateD:features | 21 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 9 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 7 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 7 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 7 |
| gateD:vol5 | 4 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 4 |
| C:sellSimStale | 3 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
142 refusals checked at +1h so far. 9 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 124 | -10.0% | 4 |
| filterC | 18 | +18.5% | 5 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | Prometheus | gateD:buy/sell 1.46 < 1.5 | h1 | -85.2% | -61.5% |
| 05:30 | Prometheus | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -11.2% | -5.8% |
| 05:30 | MOO | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -13.3% | -7.4% |
| 05:30 | Prometheus | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| 05:30 | Prometheus | gateD:liq $6052 < $10000 | h1 | -21.9% | -11.7% |
| 05:30 | FUDZ | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 | h1 | -11.5% | -10.4% |
| 05:15 | BUILDR | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 | h1 | -27.3% | -14.7% |
| 05:15 | GOAT | gateD:liq $9604 < $10000 | h1 | -48.8% | -28.5% |
| 05:15 | FLYBRAIN | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -79.4% | -70.6% |
| 05:00 | SECURTITTIES | gateD:vol5 $507 < $5000 | h1 | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 05:00 | SECURTITTIES | gateD:buy/sell 0.70 < 1.5 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 05:00 | COMPUTE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +15.5% | +15.5% |
| 05:00 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| 05:00 | SECURTITIES | gateD:liq $6702 < $10000 | h1 | +18.1% | +8.4% |
| 05:00 | WOLF | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -11.2% | -10.4% |
| 05:00 | COMPUTECOIN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -1.2% | -1.1% |
| 04:45 | COMPUTE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -7.7% | -5.5% |
| 04:30 | AQU | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +4.5% | +2.5% |
| 04:30 | EQUITY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -29.5% | -15.8% |
| 04:30 | ZCAT | gateD:liq $6032 < $10000 | h1 | -32.5% | -25.1% |
| 04:30 | POOPCOIN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04:30 | ZCAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 04:30 | SHOPIFY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +4.5% | +3.0% |
| 04:30 | FIRE | gateD:liq $6207 < $10000 | h1 | -25.4% | -14.1% |
| 04:30 | ZDOG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 04:30 | NASTY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -12.4% | -10.0% |
| 04:30 | PANE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 04:15 | PANE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 04:15 | SUPER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04:15 | SHOPIFY | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -87.1% | -65.5% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)