Launch-structure paper trader

Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 13:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose

Book P/L
-$44.07
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.04
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
4.4h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut

Live status LIVE

State written 6s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 4,412 · failsafes 2 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,217 rpc · 651 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)

Funnel this run

3,187
launches seen
102
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
17
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
2
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
2
opened

Refused: gate B 2,894 · gate D 83 · filter C 15 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0

Books

setladderopentradeswinsP/Lper trade
launch-gold-v2Gold v2021-$44.07-$22.04
launch-slowslow (hand-launched uni-v2)000$0.00n/a

Open lots (0)

none

Closed trades (2)

openedclosedtokensetage at entryheldpeakexitP/L%why admitted
12:4613:05USDUG 0xdd43…eb85Gold v213.7m20m1.90xtrail$15.52+15.5%B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m
11:0911:11SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8dGold v211.5m3m1.00xstop-$59.59-59.6%B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m

Go-live yardstick

From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.

checkhaveneed
Paper entries on Gold v2 set240not yet
Running days0.185not yet
Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact-$44.07> $0not yet
Win rate inside 50 to 73%50%50 to 73%met
Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss00met
getReserves() watch demonstrated0>= 1 or nothing to fire onnot yet

Recent decisions (40 of 276 that reached gate D or filter C)

whentokensourcebuyers 10mliqvol 5mb/sverdict
13:20Sirius 0x540e…95e0pons-v252$6,444$16,6290.64gateD:liq $6444 < $10000
13:08VENN 0xe3f5…f389uniswap-v4-launchpad38$32,440$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:07VENN 0xc1f3…ac31uniswap-v4-launchpad26$28,157$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
13:02VENN 0x0a6e…a9deuniswap-v4-launchpad49$36,959$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:58MONI 0x612e…e8e6uniswap-v4-launchpad53$4,108$1,8610.35gateD:liq $4108 < $10000
12:57RELL 0x9945…be96uniswap-v4-launchpad77$21,901$4,5127.67gateD:vol5 $4512 < $5000
12:52RECOVER 0xfcbe…7a6auniswap-v4-launchpad312$12,825$2,9902.33gateD:vol5 $2990 < $5000
12:51SGOV 0x92fd…f9b5uniswap-v4-launchpad20$3,836,159$3,4130.93gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:50HOODSTRATEGY 0x4ea8…10bauniswap-v4-launchpad114$66,184$11,1541.57filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:49HOODSTRATEGY 0xff1a…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad79$27,605$6,0321.58filterC:sellSim
12:46USDUG 0xdd43…eb85uniswap-v4-launchpad91$11,083$9,8451.50ADMITTED
12:44STRC 0xe292…2457uniswap-v4-launchpad473$15,040$6,5861.05gateD:buy/sell 1.05 < 1.5
12:43ROOT 0x9698…11d0uniswap-v4-launchpad129$96,725$33,1401.50filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:40MSTR 0xec26…da09uniswap-v4-launchpad46$1,139,273$105,7431.17gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:39haMSTR 0x3604…697funiswap-v4-launchpad271$145,288$36,4061.33gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5
12:37STRC 0x6612…bd4euniswap-v4-launchpad180$7,297$3380.50gateD:liq $7297 < $10000
12:36STRC 0x0d58…8214uniswap-v4-launchpad32$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:34haMSTR 0x0b6a…b429pons-v226$21,810$151,3850.99gateD:buy/sell 0.99 < 1.5
12:34STRC 0xb50f…c6b6uniswap-v4-launchpad1182$13,272$28,9200.77gateD:buy/sell 0.77 < 1.5
12:33STRC 0x39b2…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad25$21,337$1072.00gateD:vol5 $107 < $5000
12:33Uranus 0x8caf…8ccfuniswap-v4-launchpad22$12,457$1570.00gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
12:32STRC 0x1a28…58bfuniswap-v4-launchpad197$90,710$6,9471.74filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
12:28EMC 0x9cec…a4eduniswap-v4-launchpad27$31,592$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:234WALL 0x8dfb…7ba0uniswap-v4-launchpad22$41,427$70823.50gateD:vol5 $708 < $5000
12:21EMC 0xfa3e…a417uniswap-v4-launchpad54$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
12:05ASTEROID 0xfd82…1e18uniswap-v4-launchpad78$355,796$18,3080.78gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
11:59ASSAY 0xe039…f091uniswap-v4-launchpad86$75,022$38,2421.37gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5
11:55Chaton 0x4521…772euniswap-v4-launchpad524$21,562$29,1601.01gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5
11:33FloorPad 0x7915…00c9uniswap-v4-launchpad120$58,514$30,1581.68filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:31FAT 0xae4a…46a8pons-v229$38,340$126,3540.80gateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5
11:31FAT 0x8674…7015uniswap-v4-launchpad170$111,208$78,5793.00filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:29HEDGE 0x48dc…2bd9uniswap-v4-launchpad35$59,279$3,6840.73gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)
11:28ROCK 0x47b8…ffaduniswap-v4-launchpad90$0$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:23OTC 0x9a88…37ebuniswap-v4-launchpad112$24,919$18,3881.74filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown
11:20Quiver 0xbcad…cecbpons-v254$2$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:13MEMORY 0x778c…7001uniswap-v4-launchpad44$16,531$1,4631.20gateD:vol5 $1463 < $5000
11:10FloorPad 0xc1e8…ae03uniswap-v4-launchpad74$21,511$19,4501.52filterC:sellSimStale
11:09SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8duniswap-v4-launchpad159$12,580$11,1601.54ADMITTED
11:07Scarce 0x87ee…b213uniswap-v4-launchpad37$42,179$0gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset
11:04Scarce 0x7aa6…d3e9uniswap-v4-launchpad138$118,649$86,5412.68filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown

Refusal tally this run

reasoncount
no priced pool35
gateD:poolMismatch15
gateD:features12
C:notV2VsWeth12
C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager12
C:creatorShareUnknown12
gateD:buy/sell9
gateD:vol57
gateD:liq5
C:swapsH1<2504
C:sellSimStale2
C:liquidityUnder$250001
C:sellSim1

Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes

Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.

238 refusals checked at +1h so far. 16 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.

refusal stagecheckedavg price move +1h≥+50% moves (likely misses)
gateD199-9.9%8
filterC39+21.4%8
whentokenrefused on+1h/+24hprice moveliq move
13:15ASTEROIDgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+16.8%+9.1%
13:00ASSAYgateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5h1+259.3%+119.3%
13:00ChatongateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5h1-71.0%-46.2%
12:45FloorPadfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+298.7%+141.9%
12:45FATfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+6.9%+4.1%
12:45FATgateD:buy/sell 0.80 < 1.5h1+5.0%+1.1%
12:30QuivergateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth1+132.4%+52.9%
12:30OTCfilterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+262.6%+126.2%
12:30ROCKgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%n/a
12:30HEDGEgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+6.5%+3.4%
12:15ScarcefilterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-62.6%-47.0%
12:15ScarcegateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
12:15FloorPadfilterC:sellSimStaleh1+333.7%+108.0%
12:15MEMORYgateD:vol5 $1463 < $5000h1-12.5%-8.2%
12:00ScarcefilterC:sellSimStaleh1-79.2%-55.4%
12:00USDGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.1%+0.1%
12:00REJECTEDgateD:liq $4018 < $10000h1-5.7%-5.5%
12:00PTPgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
12:00PTPfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-7.1%-5.0%
12:00memorygateD:liq $4948 < $10000h1-9.8%-9.5%
12:00NVDAgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-0.2%+8.4%
11:45HEISTgateD:vol5 $3079 < $5000h1-26.8%-14.4%
11:45NAVIERSTOKESgateD:vol5 $2687 < $5000h1-20.3%-15.8%
11:45OTTIfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1-22.2%-15.4%
11:45AIgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1+4.8%+2.8%
11:45RPGgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-20.9%-11.1%
11:45OTTIgateD:features incomplete at the trigger offseth10.0%0.0%
11:30STRATTONgateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event)h1-20.0%-10.7%
11:30NavierfilterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh1+17.9%+10.9%
11:30filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknownh10.0%0.0%

Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)