Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 17:44 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$44.07
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
2
1 won · 1 open
Per trade
-$22.04
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.7h
since 08 Sept, 09:01 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 0s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 2s ago ok
Socket events 13,961 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 4,356 rpc · 1,254 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
10,732
launches seen
→
224
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
34
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
3
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
3
opened
Refused: gate B 9,738 · gate D 183 · filter C 31 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 2 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -$44.07 | -$22.04 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (1)
| opened | token | set | entry | mark | now | peak | left | realized | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:36 | JOMO 0xf238…1c91 | Gold v2 | $50 | 0.00003721 | 0.98x | 1.06x | 100% | $0.00 | B:34 buyers · D:liq $17299 vol5 $5055 b/s 2.71 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Closed trades (2)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:46 | 13:05 | USDUG 0xdd43…eb85 | Gold v2 | 13.7m | 20m | 1.90x | trail | $15.52 | +15.5% | B:91 buyers · D:liq $11083 vol5 $9845 b/s 1.50 · C:allowlist · size-up:108 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 11:09 | 11:11 | SHMONEY 0xd603…4b8d | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 3m | 1.00x | stop | -$59.59 | -59.6% | B:159 buyers · D:liq $12580 vol5 $11160 b/s 1.54 · C:allowlist · size-up:165 distinct buyers in 30m |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 2 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.36 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$44.07 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 50% | 50 to 73% | met |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 340 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:43 | LUWAMA 0xb36a…3e64 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 138 | $5,581 | $71 | 0.20 | gateD:liq $5581 < $10000 |
| 17:42 | Pusheen 0x1209…bb6e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 441 | $23,639 | $55,546 | 1.19 | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 |
| 17:42 | nub 0x0956…cde7 | pons-v2 | 21 | $3,673 | $2 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $3673 < $10000 |
| 17:37 | ASHIBA 0x25cd…f354 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 114 | $20,848 | $7,145 | 1.61 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 17:36 | JOMO 0xf238…1c91 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $17,299 | $5,055 | 2.71 | ADMITTED |
| 17:35 | PUSHEEN 0x77e5…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 54 | $23,254 | $533 | 1.75 | gateD:vol5 $533 < $5000 |
| 17:32 | BZZ 0xb356…a0ba | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 820 | $12,518 | $39,325 | 0.79 | gateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5 |
| 17:29 | HOODLAND 0xd01d…741d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 305 | $20,792 | $23,052 | 1.40 | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 |
| 17:28 | BZZ 0x6641…aa3e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 123 | $74,780 | $30,310 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:27 | SGD 0x7727…bb11 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $37,096 | $5,250 | 2.11 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:26 | HOODLAND 0xf6e8…1aa1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 154 | $91,490 | $27,427 | 2.48 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:14 | Knight 0x6859…7d14 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 78 | $46,840 | $18,087 | 1.94 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 17:13 | Coca Cola 0x739a…7291 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $36,373 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:09 | USDE 0xa3c6…1234 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 255 | $6,327 | $566 | 0.17 | gateD:liq $6327 < $10000 |
| 17:09 | USDE 0x7fe4…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $20,723 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:09 | NVIDIA 0x2e11…2170 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $34,575 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 17:04 | CDRM 0xf1fb…6ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 74 | $4,435 | $2 | gateD:liq $4435 < $10000 | |
| 16:57 | AUTOAI 0x4396…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $10,280 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:54 | RKN 0xc0db…0674 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $31,293 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:54 | FLYWHEEL 0x0441…e71f | pons-v2 | 61 | $5,825 | $1,045 | 0.80 | gateD:liq $5825 < $10000 |
| 16:51 | AXOM 0xe2eb…aba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $9,087 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:51 | AMAZONCOIN 0x1dbb…328e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $53,175 | $17,079 | 2.38 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:44 | SPXG 0xb70a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 186 | $156,745 | $31,577 | 0.78 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 16:40 | MEMES 0xe67a…4f8c | pons-v2 | 59 | $7,321 | $2,166 | 0.52 | gateD:liq $7321 < $10000 |
| 16:40 | DEPLOY 0x2894…1662 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:38 | DEPLOY 0x333b…9989 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $30,111 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:37 | DEPLOY 0xacbf…32d3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $33,826 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:33 | PLUMBER 0x4230…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 111 | $24,130 | $16,522 | 1.60 | filterC:sellSim |
| 16:29 | HA 0x5961…6f01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $4,375 | $514 | 0.17 | gateD:liq $4375 < $10000 |
| 16:26 | OG 0x31e3…9e4a | pons-v2 | 45 | $1 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:25 | OG 0xd15a…3f80 | pons-v2 | 33 | $26,406 | $80,187 | 1.37 | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 |
| 16:22 | RR 0x4beb…1a69 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 153 | $7,721 | $3,308 | 0.32 | gateD:liq $7721 < $10000 |
| 16:16 | Hound 0x7efa…2e19 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 78 | $73,939 | $16,735 | 1.04 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 16:14 | YIPPEE 0x3595…80ff | pons-v2 | 62 | $6,285 | $3,003 | 0.53 | gateD:liq $6285 < $10000 |
| 16:14 | Hound 0xc8f3…9dc7 | pons-v2 | 20 | $5,972 | $426 | 0.22 | gateD:liq $5972 < $10000 |
| 16:08 | DESK 0x5340…fba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 99 | $23,397 | $661 | 0.78 | gateD:vol5 $661 < $5000 |
| 16:04 | pennypools 0x1fff…f2f2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $31,135 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:02 | CONTRA 0x6776…b8b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 63 | $68,896 | $39,519 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 16:02 | CHAOS 0xbf09…be11 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 32 | $44,438 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 16:00 | CHAOS 0x50b2…3c78 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 88 |
| gateD:features | 32 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 24 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 24 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 24 |
| gateD:liq | 19 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 18 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 17 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 12 |
| gateD:vol5 | 9 |
| C:sellSim | 4 |
| C:sellSimStale | 3 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
| C:copycat | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
298 refusals checked at +1h so far. 22 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 246 | -9.4% | 11 |
| filterC | 52 | +23.9% | 11 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | Hound | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +60.4% | +26.7% |
| 17:30 | RR | gateD:liq $7721 < $10000 | h1 | -48.0% | -27.8% |
| 17:30 | OG | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 | h1 | +2.1% | +1.2% |
| 17:30 | OG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:30 | HA | gateD:liq $4375 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:15 | CHAOS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 17:15 | CHAOS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:15 | CONTRA | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +6.4% | +4.3% |
| 17:15 | pennypools | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:15 | DESK | gateD:vol5 $661 < $5000 | h1 | -12.6% | -11.8% |
| 17:15 | Hound | gateD:liq $5972 < $10000 | h1 | -11.6% | -6.0% |
| 17:15 | YIPPEE | gateD:liq $6285 < $10000 | h1 | +3.6% | +1.6% |
| 17:00 | DogBob | gateD:buy/sell 1.14 < 1.5 | h1 | -91.8% | -71.5% |
| 17:00 | PVE | gateD:liq $5636 < $10000 | h1 | -33.2% | -18.3% |
| 17:00 | DogBob | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17:00 | GREEN | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 16:45 | POND | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 16:45 | Sonera | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -20.0% | -100.0% |
| 16:45 | SIGNAL | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -22.2% | -14.9% |
| 16:45 | MU | gateD:liq $4868 < $10000 | h1 | -8.2% | -7.9% |
| 16:45 | CHAOS | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -94.7% | -77.0% |
| 16:30 | YES | gateD:buy/sell 1.41 < 1.5 | h1 | -86.7% | -63.5% |
| 16:30 | OG | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16:30 | Treecoin | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +235.5% | +124.6% |
| 16:30 | VLEAP | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +223.8% | +116.5% |
| 16:30 | haMSTR | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16:30 | MeowDeng | gateD:liq $8104 < $10000 | h1 | -13.7% | -7.2% |
| 16:15 | SHVL | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +7.4% | -100.0% |
| 16:15 | RSTR | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +7.1% | +3.5% |
| 16:15 | John | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)