Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 09:30 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$106.30
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
8
2 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$13.29
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
9.5h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 11s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 13s ago ok
Socket events 18,408 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 4,394 rpc · 1,357 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
12,266
launches seen
→
326
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
28
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
8
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
8
opened
Refused: gate B 11,696 · gate D 292 · filter C 20 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | -$106.30 | -$13.29 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (8)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:32 | 08:10 | HOARD 0xa639…80f6 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 39m | 5.24x | trail | $50.92 | +101.8% | B:21 buyers · D:liq $12511 vol5 $6082 b/s 1.75 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 05:03 | 05:11 | SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18 | Gold v2 | 12.7m | 8m | 1.01x | confirm_bail | -$11.50 | -11.5% | B:82 buyers · D:liq $22882 vol5 $6464 b/s 1.90 · C:allowlist · size-up:83 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 04:45 | 04:49 | DRILL 0x5455…b884 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$34.94 | -69.9% | B:52 buyers · D:liq $11658 vol5 $9900 b/s 1.99 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:29 | 04:39 | OS 0x1b9b…d4c4 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 10m | 1.33x | stop | -$25.77 | -51.5% | B:52 buyers · D:liq $14701 vol5 $7390 b/s 1.69 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:03 | 04:07 | FABCOIN 0x7bbc…d309 | Gold v2 | 15.1m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.82 | -53.6% | B:27 buyers · D:liq $18816 vol5 $5562 b/s 2.12 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 03:36 | 03:54 | Mischief 0xe68d…1340 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 18m | 1.87x | trail | $6.53 | +13.1% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $13119 vol5 $6638 b/s 1.55 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:53 | 03:00 | MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 8m | 1.06x | stop | -$35.19 | -70.4% | B:30 buyers · D:liq $17919 vol5 $5480 b/s 1.95 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:12 | 02:20 | COMPUTER 0xc236…7293 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 8m | 1.00x | stop | -$29.53 | -59.1% | B:24 buyers · D:liq $22758 vol5 $99785 b/s 1.57 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 8 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.40 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$106.30 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 25% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 691 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:16 | QUANTUMLAB 0xbfd0…0101 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $18,235 | $4,499 | 1.28 | gateD:vol5 $4499 < $5000 |
| 09:12 | NIXI 0xdd3b…88d3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $66,268 | $63,753 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 08:59 | PUSHWORK 0x318a…b4b4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:45 | FINE 0x68d3…7ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $18,738 | $5,249 | 0.67 | gateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5 |
| 08:33 | CHROME 0xce13…001d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 75 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:31 | BABIES 0x8482…e9cc | pons-v2 | 20 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:29 | Joe 0x211e…2d3e | pons-v2 | 47 | $20,284 | $83,016 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 08:29 | OHM 0xa486…9655 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $118,968 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 08:14 | ZBUCK 0xf735…e353 | pons-v2 | 45 | $0 | $1 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | |
| 08:12 | NVMAXI 0x6bc9…22d4 | pons-v2 | 50 | $4 | $1 | gateD:liq $4 < $10000 | |
| 08:05 | DUO 0xae63…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $24,640 | $10 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $10 < $5000 |
| 07:55 | DUO 0x56aa…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $87,131 | $2,119 | 0.71 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 07:54 | DUO 0x08d0…7eab | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 55 | $33,537 | $10,160 | 1.92 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:34 | ASl 0x3d3c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 47 | $28,833 | $3,026 | 0.55 | gateD:vol5 $3026 < $5000 |
| 07:32 | HOARD 0xa639…80f6 | pons-v2 | 21 | $12,511 | $6,082 | 1.75 | ADMITTED |
| 07:22 | ASI 0xa484…73af | pons-v2 | 76 | $17,787 | $23,143 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 07:20 | Jacob 0x02f8…44a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 500 | $24,024 | $25,824 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 07:17 | Jacob 0x352a…dfd0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 178 | $154,465 | $38,176 | 3.04 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:16 | ZOE 0x9b17…c13f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 154 | $36,287 | $53,783 | 1.06 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 07:04 | Gregory 0xa4d1…019c | pons-v2 | 63 | $9,005 | $14,213 | 1.06 | gateD:liq $9005 < $10000 |
| 07:02 | BOILER 0x4bfe…13ba | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 127 | $87,124 | $52,810 | 1.79 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:59 | TURRET 0x593c…9b88 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 113 | $62,297 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:54 | Veil 0x36cf…f5f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 30 | $35,270 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:47 | ZOE 0x7bd3…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $58,943 | $1,887 | 0.64 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:44 | PLUM 0xbd23…08b7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 136 | $97,914 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:34 | TOILET 0xfee1…8e43 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 161 | $83,755 | $21,049 | 0.91 | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 |
| 06:25 | DESK 0xecc0…453a | pons-v2 | 28 | $20,888 | $23,423 | 1.15 | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 |
| 06:16 | CANDLE 0x0bcd…9c0e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $33,400 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:16 | CANDLE 0xff21…718f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 128 | $73,704 | $31,226 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:10 | CANDLE 0xe330…d13e | pons-v2 | 43 | $12,001 | $15,162 | 0.67 | gateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5 |
| 06:09 | Pixorama 0xbebb…1a9f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 183 | $91,710 | $42,326 | 0.83 | gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5 |
| 05:56 | RSTR 0x78b9…025d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $212,988 | $5,021 | 0.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:49 | GARY 0x77ff…addd | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $32,315 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:49 | Basilisk 0x14c1…9fcc | pons-v2 | 61 | $13,253 | $31,911 | 1.26 | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 |
| 05:49 | GARY 0x7506…238e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 59 | $33,584 | $15,254 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:42 | GARY 0xc6f8…dab4 | pons-v2 | 94 | $3 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:41 | Jacob 0x3b09…6a21 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $23,129 | $36,633 | 1.76 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:36 | REBEL 0x0eb7…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $25,917 | $117 | 0.50 | gateD:vol5 $117 < $5000 |
| 05:28 | TREE 0x3ec6…d124 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 244 | $175,452 | $59,377 | 3.30 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:21 | B6PW 0x1813…dc25 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 158 | $62,872 | $1,621 | 30.00 | gateD:vol5 $1621 < $5000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 173 |
| gateD:features | 29 |
| gateD:liq | 28 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 26 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 19 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 17 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 17 |
| gateD:vol5 | 17 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 16 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 9 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 3 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 1 |
| C:ownerEoa | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
| C:sellSimStale | 1 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
654 refusals checked at +1h so far. 56 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 535 | -5.6% | 27 |
| filterC | 118 | +84.0% | 29 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:15 | NVMAXI | gateD:liq $4 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:15 | ZBUCK | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | +1602.6% | +27700.0% |
| 09:15 | DUO | gateD:vol5 $10 < $5000 | h1 | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| 09:00 | bracket | gateD:buy/sell 1.34 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 09:00 | DUO | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09:00 | DUO | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +221.2% | +99.0% |
| 09:00 | bracket | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 08:45 | ASl | gateD:vol5 $3026 < $5000 | h1 | -8.0% | -7.0% |
| 08:30 | VEEF | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | d1 | +180112604431529246720.0% | n/a |
| 08:30 | Chaton | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 08:30 | Chaton | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -64.2% | +124761.0% |
| 08:30 | IQ | gateD:buy/sell 0.85 < 1.5 | d1 | +290.2% | +126.4% |
| 08:30 | SNDKS | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 08:30 | ZOE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -69.1% | -44.4% |
| 08:30 | Jacob | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -25.9% | -16.2% |
| 08:30 | Jacob | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 | h1 | +41.2% | +19.0% |
| 08:30 | ASI | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | h1 | +109.5% | +44.7% |
| 08:30 | HTB | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 08:15 | ORBIA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 08:15 | Hoody | gateD:liq $5641 < $10000 | d1 | -55.2% | -33.0% |
| 08:15 | BOILER | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +131.2% | +67.1% |
| 08:15 | Gregory | gateD:liq $9005 < $10000 | h1 | -58.3% | -35.3% |
| 08:00 | Veil | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08:00 | TURRET | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08:00 | ZOE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -23.1% | -16.3% |
| 07:45 | PLUM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:45 | TOILET | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 | h1 | -79.0% | -70.3% |
| 07:30 | DESK | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | h1 | +69.7% | +30.3% |
| 07:30 | LAUNCHPAD | gateD:liq $4795 < $10000 | d1 | -11.4% | -9.0% |
| 07:30 | CANDLE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +33.0% | +18.9% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)