Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 01:28 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
3.0h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 17s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 18s ago ok
Socket events 4,812 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 861 rpc · 179 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
3,620
launches seen
→
55
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
5
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 3,338 · gate D 46 · filter C 5 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.12 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 991 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:25 | SHROOM 0xab09…5b29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $331,861 | $2,039 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 01:22 | 🍏 0x8c0d…8e3c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 23 | $8,747 | $2,531 | 0.34 | gateD:liq $8747 < $10000 |
| 01:22 | MIRAGEFI 0x6d39…f42e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $10,518 | $198 | gateD:vol5 $198 < $5000 | |
| 01:17 | BATWIF 0x67c1…627a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $1,346 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:09 | ROB 0xbfbb…8f04 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $50,307 | $14,139 | 2.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:04 | Billycoin 0x1e73…f022 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $52,469 | $22,627 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 01:02 | WORKS 0x918c…b854 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $13,195 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 01:02 | vell 0x3275…be9c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 37 | $40,986 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:57 | ROB 0x497f…1348 | pons-v2 | 28 | $9,106 | $8,063 | 1.15 | gateD:liq $9106 < $10000 |
| 00:53 | ponzi 0xf586…0e4b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:51 | BROS 0xc6e4…486d | pons-v2 | 77 | $9 | $4 | gateD:liq $9 < $10000 | |
| 00:41 | AAPL 0xaf3d…93f9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $312,940 | $20,971 | 1.03 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:39 | FIDO 0xe8ea…4701 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $4,530 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 00:37 | FIDO 0x57a1…2a4d | pons-v2 | 22 | $1 | $3 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $1 < $10000 |
| 00:35 | FIDO 0x77e0…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 157 | $30,683 | $3,538 | 1.34 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:33 | MOOF 0xdf21…ab55 | pons-v2 | 45 | $8,617 | $40,078 | 0.88 | gateD:liq $8617 < $10000 |
| 00:21 | anon 0x3e3e…ef44 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 64 | $59,719 | $22,104 | 2.12 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 00:17 | USDG 0x5fc5…d168 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 80 | $382,231 | $22,304 | 1.22 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 00:01 | CLOCKERS 0xefc0…6ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 76 | $65,005 | $10 | 0.50 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:52 | AFTER 0xb766…e76d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $37,133 | $10,085 | 0.72 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:23 | baton 0xd20e…5b7a | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $55,184 | $20,742 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 23:15 | GRASS 0x1639…f84b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $111,057 | $4,326 | 0.91 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:09 | DGAME 0x7aaf…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $28,865 | $5,310 | 0.59 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 23:04 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $2,090,570 | $34,576 | 0.34 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:55 | HAIRBALLS 0xbbde…0511 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 60 | $7,754 | $1,757 | 0.87 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:55 | STM 0xcf34…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $24,679 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:52 | SLAWTH 0x9ee4…8b8b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $61,679 | $21,537 | 2.29 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:52 | CLUBY 0x7f26…c376 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $47,084 | $15,720 | 1.02 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:52 | AI 0x2e8c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $5,257,492 | $41,070 | 0.15 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:52 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 31 | $8,374,524 | $96,384 | 0.45 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:45 | HOOD 0x3321…588f | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 256 | $7,082 | $7,729 | 0.98 | gateD:liq $7082 < $10000 |
| 21:42 | XLG 0xae0b…cf8d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 73 | $92,342 | $24,943 | 1.65 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:42 | JOZ 0xa244…2cbd | pons-v2 | 40 | $4,984 | $196 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $4984 < $10000 |
| 21:42 | QUBT 0x8e5e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $20,750 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:40 | Course 0xa9b8…46f3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $56,181 | $15,204 | 2.06 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:36 | MARIO 0x5faa…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:36 | WEALTH 0x4aa6…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 40 | $20,863 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 21:36 | ZORA 0x3344…d09e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $5,518 | $378 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $5518 < $10000 |
| 21:31 | SKYNET 0x3406…d906 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $48,246 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:31 | Transfer 0x774a…4ad0 | pons-v2 | 34 | $5,031 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 20 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 13 |
| gateD:liq | 6 |
| gateD:features | 6 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 5 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 5 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 5 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 4 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| gateD:vol5 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
913 refusals checked at +1h so far. 74 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 737 | -8.7% | 32 |
| filterC | 175 | +59.1% | 42 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:15 | 🖖 | gateD:buy/sell 1.33 < 1.5 | d1 | -95.1% | -78.3% |
| 01:15 | SPACEMOON | gateD:liq $4881 < $10000 | d1 | -14.2% | -13.7% |
| 01:15 | 911 | gateD:liq $5083 < $10000 | d1 | -0.9% | -0.8% |
| 01:15 | Cramer | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -84.4% | -58.6% |
| 01:15 | APPL | gateD:liq $5782 < $10000 | d1 | -11.0% | -10.4% |
| 01:15 | 5 | gateD:vol5 $2181 < $5000 | d1 | -73.9% | -63.6% |
| 01:15 | CLOCKERS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -32.4% | -22.4% |
| 01:15 | CRUMBS | gateD:liq $4809 < $10000 | d1 | -6.8% | -3.8% |
| 01:00 | AIBUBBLE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +3.0% | +3.0% |
| 01:00 | NOTE | gateD:buy/sell 0.82 < 1.5 | d1 | +34.4% | +1628.9% |
| 01:00 | 🖖 | gateD:liq $5330 < $10000 | d1 | -52.0% | -30.7% |
| 01:00 | 5 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| 01:00 | 🖖 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 01:00 | AFTER | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -81.5% | -57.0% |
| 01:00 | KIBA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +36.6% | -99.1% |
| 00:45 | NOSECONDBEST | gateD:buy/sell 1.12 < 1.5 | d1 | -91.1% | -70.5% |
| 00:45 | INCENTIFI | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -96.8% | -82.2% |
| 00:45 | USDG | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -0.0% | -65.4% |
| 00:45 | SPACEHOOD | gateD:liq $6306 < $10000 | d1 | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| 00:45 | SEND | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -15.1% | -15.1% |
| 00:45 | SPRH | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -75.6% | -50.7% |
| 00:45 | sGPU | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | +1.6% | +1.0% |
| 00:45 | ZASH | gateD:vol5 $1240 < $5000 | d1 | -90.7% | -69.5% |
| 00:45 | AHOO | gateD:liq $7833 < $10000 | d1 | -64.0% | -57.2% |
| 00:45 | BOXY | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -21.3% | -12.3% |
| 00:30 | RBLT | gateD:buy/sell 0.11 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 00:30 | CRUMBS | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 00:30 | HOODCITY | gateD:buy/sell 0.88 < 1.5 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 00:30 | onchain | gateD:liq $5594 < $10000 | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 00:30 | TESTLAUNCH | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)