Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 09 Sept, 05:20 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
-$157.22
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
7
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
-$22.46
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
5.3h
since 09 Sept, 00:00 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 9s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 13s ago ok
Socket events 12,402 · failsafes 4 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 2,409 rpc · 729 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
8,423
launches seen
→
235
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
19
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
7
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
7
opened
Refused: gate B 7,909 · gate D 210 · filter C 12 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 1 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -$157.22 | -$22.46 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (7)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:03 | 05:11 | SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18 | Gold v2 | 12.7m | 8m | 1.01x | confirm_bail | -$11.50 | -11.5% | B:82 buyers · D:liq $22882 vol5 $6464 b/s 1.90 · C:allowlist · size-up:83 distinct buyers in 30m |
| 04:45 | 04:49 | DRILL 0x5455…b884 | Gold v2 | 10.2m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$34.94 | -69.9% | B:52 buyers · D:liq $11658 vol5 $9900 b/s 1.99 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:29 | 04:39 | OS 0x1b9b…d4c4 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 10m | 1.33x | stop | -$25.77 | -51.5% | B:52 buyers · D:liq $14701 vol5 $7390 b/s 1.69 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 04:03 | 04:07 | FABCOIN 0x7bbc…d309 | Gold v2 | 15.1m | 4m | 1.00x | stop | -$26.82 | -53.6% | B:27 buyers · D:liq $18816 vol5 $5562 b/s 2.12 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 03:36 | 03:54 | Mischief 0xe68d…1340 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 18m | 1.87x | trail | $6.53 | +13.1% | B:50 buyers · D:liq $13119 vol5 $6638 b/s 1.55 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:53 | 03:00 | MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147 | Gold v2 | 10.7m | 8m | 1.06x | stop | -$35.19 | -70.4% | B:30 buyers · D:liq $17919 vol5 $5480 b/s 1.95 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
| 02:12 | 02:20 | COMPUTER 0xc236…7293 | Gold v2 | 11.5m | 8m | 1.00x | stop | -$29.53 | -59.1% | B:24 buyers · D:liq $22758 vol5 $99785 b/s 1.57 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 7 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.22 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | -$157.22 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 14% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 651 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:19 | NCLD 0x65a9…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $47,117 | $15,056 | 0.72 | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 |
| 05:19 | TREE 0x40c4…98ac | pons-v2 | 48 | $30,017 | $143,185 | 1.10 | gateD:buy/sell 1.10 < 1.5 |
| 05:17 | tip 0x2f1e…8545 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 81 | $21,579 | $9,197 | 1.50 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:11 | SHOPPY 0x83c2…2201 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $7,019 | $1,055 | 2.20 | gateD:liq $7019 < $10000 |
| 05:09 | THC 0x19c2…991d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 179 | $117,100 | $35,322 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:05 | Swagcat 0x7d24…9ab1 | pons-v2 | 25 | $5,130 | $72 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $5130 < $10000 |
| 05:04 | SHOPCAT 0x2dfa…3628 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 45 | $48,215 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 05:04 | Glasses 0x3fa8…d0ab | pons-v2 | 20 | $5,679 | $185 | 3.00 | gateD:liq $5679 < $10000 |
| 05:03 | SHOPPY 0xbb4b…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $22,882 | $6,464 | 1.90 | ADMITTED |
| 05:02 | CRIB 0x5776…5b51 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $7,247 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:57 | SHOPCAT 0x268d…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 565 | $115,854 | $106,869 | 0.94 | gateD:buy/sell 0.94 < 1.5 |
| 04:45 | PLXMS 0x76b8…d566 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 44 | $7,556 | $518 | 0.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:45 | DRILL 0x5455…b884 | pons-v2 | 52 | $11,658 | $9,900 | 1.99 | ADMITTED |
| 04:43 | ZKSWAP 0x91f9…bdb0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $27,813 | $4,889 | 1.17 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:43 | SHROOM 0xab09…5b29 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $363,161 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 04:30 | FORGE 0xa938…5f15 | pons-v2 | 21 | $17,796 | $8,526 | 2.12 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 04:29 | OS 0x1b9b…d4c4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 52 | $14,701 | $7,390 | 1.69 | ADMITTED |
| 04:27 | RARE 0x4d12…93bc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $2,128 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:21 | STOCKLESS 0xad4a…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $57,830 | $1,703 | 0.52 | gateD:vol5 $1703 < $5000 |
| 04:21 | STOCKLESS 0x2414…2c4a | pons-v2 | 43 | $35,389 | $77,619 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 04:19 | JACOB 0x84ba…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 109 | $28,918 | $3,486 | 0.28 | gateD:vol5 $3486 < $5000 |
| 04:17 | GCT 0x86fd…1af2 | pons-v2 | 50 | $16,947 | $7,677 | 0.79 | gateD:buy/sell 0.79 < 1.5 |
| 04:13 | ponzi 0xd712…9b15 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $20,678 | $489 | gateD:vol5 $489 < $5000 | |
| 04:13 | MEME 0x385f…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $101,540 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 04:12 | Jacob 0x3df3…06f1 | pons-v2 | 38 | $15,317 | $35,054 | 0.97 | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 |
| 04:03 | FABCOIN 0x7bbc…d309 | pons-v2 | 27 | $18,816 | $5,562 | 2.12 | ADMITTED |
| 04:02 | CRO 0xe4e2…5f29 | pons-v2 | 73 | $6,296 | $775 | 0.90 | gateD:liq $6296 < $10000 |
| 04:00 | BCAT 0x1c16…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 106 | $19 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 03:36 | Mischief 0xe68d…1340 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $13,119 | $6,638 | 1.55 | ADMITTED |
| 03:35 | STAIR 0x7b9e…06bc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $25,360 | $6,110 | 8.67 | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 03:25 | PIZZA 0x956e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $28,693 | $2,264 | 1.05 | gateD:vol5 $2264 < $5000 |
| 03:25 | RECEIPT 0xb97d…34ee | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 98 | $52,398 | $14,150 | 1.96 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 03:09 | MAGA 0x25d3…e299 | pons-v2 | 54 | $6,144 | $421 | 0.25 | gateD:liq $6144 < $10000 |
| 03:02 | OCTN 0xc7c1…43dc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 258 | $17,016 | $62,369 | 1.39 | gateD:buy/sell 1.39 < 1.5 |
| 02:55 | sat 0x796f…1d01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $4,363 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:53 | MYSTERY 0x9cd7…b147 | pons-v2 | 30 | $17,919 | $5,480 | 1.95 | ADMITTED |
| 02:51 | REAL 0x153c…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 02:51 | SHARO 0x6d6c…151f | pons-v2 | 49 | $12,047 | $9,312 | 1.28 | gateD:buy/sell 1.28 < 1.5 |
| 02:48 | unipcs 0xdb7e…dee8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 70 | $54,276 | $10,382 | 2.33 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 02:30 | OYIRA 0xf4bd…aace | pons-v2 | 26 | $4,732 | $9 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4732 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 122 |
| gateD:liq | 25 |
| gateD:features | 19 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 17 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 15 |
| gateD:vol5 | 12 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 9 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 9 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 9 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 4 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 2 |
| C:sellSim | 2 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 1 |
| C:ownerEoa | 1 |
| C:selectors:setMaxTx | 1 |
| C:sellSimStale | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
604 refusals checked at +1h so far. 48 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 495 | -9.2% | 22 |
| filterC | 108 | +81.7% | 26 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:15 | KERVON | gateD:liq $3992 < $10000 | d1 | -12.0% | -6.2% |
| 05:15 | WONKA | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -71.8% | -48.1% |
| 05:15 | HOUSE | gateD:liq $5656 < $10000 | d1 | -51.3% | -30.2% |
| 05:15 | KEY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -3.1% | -100.0% |
| 05:15 | ECHELON | gateD:vol5 $1196 < $5000 | d1 | +105.8% | +43.4% |
| 05:15 | SHEEP | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 | d1 | -90.8% | -70.0% |
| 05:15 | FREAK | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 05:15 | BCAT | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 05:15 | CRO | gateD:liq $6296 < $10000 | h1 | -29.4% | -16.0% |
| 05:15 | Jacob | gateD:buy/sell 0.97 < 1.5 | h1 | +969.3% | +227.1% |
| 05:15 | ponzi | gateD:vol5 $489 < $5000 | h1 | -13.4% | -9.5% |
| 05:15 | MEME | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +4.6% | +2.1% |
| 05:00 | BITCORN | gateD:liq $5601 < $10000 | d1 | -89.1% | -91.4% |
| 05:00 | MILKERS | gateD:liq $5215 < $10000 | d1 | +36.5% | -68.9% |
| 05:00 | SXY | gateD:liq $6564 < $10000 | d1 | -63.7% | -40.0% |
| 05:00 | FREAK | filterC:sellSimStale | d1 | -95.2% | -77.6% |
| 05:00 | 🅿️ | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -56.0% | -33.6% |
| 04:45 | HOODCAT | gateD:buy/sell 1.43 < 1.5 | d1 | -96.8% | -82.0% |
| 04:45 | STAIR | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +439.5% | +158.4% |
| 04:45 | Kira | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -81.5% | -100.0% |
| 04:45 | CME | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 04:45 | Kira | gateD:liq $9498 < $10000 | d1 | -80.8% | -56.7% |
| 04:45 | AAPL | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -1.0% | +27.4% |
| 04:45 | PUMP | gateD:liq $729 < $10000 | d1 | -20.4% | +70.0% |
| 04:30 | Prometheus | gateD:buy/sell 1.46 < 1.5 | d1 | -94.0% | -75.6% |
| 04:30 | Prometheus | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | -29.8% | -16.2% |
| 04:30 | MOO | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -21.1% | -13.7% |
| 04:30 | Prometheus | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| 04:30 | Prometheus | gateD:liq $6052 < $10000 | d1 | -59.0% | -36.0% |
| 04:30 | FUDZ | gateD:buy/sell 1.40 < 1.5 | d1 | -12.7% | -11.7% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)