Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 11 Sept, 21:20 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
20.7h
since 11 Sept, 00:40 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 1s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 3s ago ok
Socket events 30,512 · failsafes 9 · errors 9
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 9,136 rpc · 2,453 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
19,308
launches seen
→
879
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
86
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 18,183 · gate D 786 · filter C 86 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.86 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1715 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:18 | CATCOINS 0x6642…677e | pons-v2 | 42 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:10 | Meme-fi 0x8ac8…4b85 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $47,108 | $14,875 | 1.80 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 21:10 | Flys 0x5f53…ef6c | pons-v2 | 21 | $3,694 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 21:02 | ROI 0x385c…b93e | pons-v2 | 52 | $15,364 | $22,299 | 0.89 | gateD:buy/sell 0.89 < 1.5 |
| 21:00 | SPLIT 0x5df8…2a21 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 135 | $35,963 | $11,309 | 0.46 | gateD:buy/sell 0.46 < 1.5 |
| 20:59 | BBL 0x3ad5…b653 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $46,656 | $13,641 | 1.92 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:59 | trader 0x4c77…7d48 | pons-v2 | 40 | $4,495 | $4 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4495 < $10000 |
| 20:50 | minecat 0x65e5…45c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $48,927 | $22,128 | 2.11 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:49 | RINDEX 0xcac0…3cd0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $62 | $1 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $62 < $10000 |
| 20:49 | SAFEMOON 0xdfe0…5101 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 58 | $58,023 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:48 | OPEN 0xba01…8c08 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $75,282 | $59,620 | 1.81 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:48 | MINERS 0xa949…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $21,728 | $6,979 | 1.88 | filterC:sellSim |
| 20:44 | STRAT 0x788e…6f07 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 62 | $939,433 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:38 | INVESTOR 0x82dd…1a5b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $48,752 | $15,305 | 3.67 | filterC:denyConstant,notV2VsWeth,tapeRatio>4,swapsH1<250,ownerEoa,selectors:pause+setMaxTx,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:37 | OPEN 0x4277…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 94 | $20,697 | $0 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | |
| 20:34 | HER 0x1da8…5dee | pons-v2 | 22 | $14,323 | $13,387 | 0.82 | gateD:buy/sell 0.82 < 1.5 |
| 20:34 | UP 0x559b…4a99 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $76,654 | $10,373 | 0.71 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:30 | SOV 0x2423…4a97 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $62,312 | $32,550 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:28 | OPEN 0xf1b2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 350 | $199,085 | $88,037 | 0.45 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:22 | FLYBRAIN 0x2b31…44bb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 24 | $37,615 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 20:20 | ily 0x83f2…57ad | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 43 | $50,947 | $12,611 | 1.67 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:19 | LAURA 0xc994…c77d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 110 | $72,886 | $45,438 | 1.58 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 20:18 | Anon 0x79bb…e07c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $544,184 | $86,039 | 2.18 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 20:07 | EQUILIBRA 0x6c20…dc7d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 208 | $0 | $19 | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | |
| 20:05 | Baton 0x60dd…a8c4 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 56 | $55,122 | $17,962 | 2.05 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:59 | PONSIBLE 0xc31f…27d2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 144 | $65,527 | $28,390 | 1.56 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:59 | MEMESTR 0x9cec…a4a3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 147 | $38,505 | $20,558 | 1.62 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,ownerEoa,selectors:pause,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:58 | UNIPCS 0x7df5…3fbe | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 299 | $185,827 | $80,941 | 1.92 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:58 | MADE 0x0ff2…a9a3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 172 | $96,999 | $60,451 | 0.96 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 19:54 | PIXIE 0xeaeb…0d83 | pons-v2 | 21 | $4,651 | $40 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4651 < $10000 |
| 19:52 | PIXIE 0x2b06…4551 | pons-v2 | 27 | $7,012 | $1,351 | 0.89 | gateD:liq $7012 < $10000 |
| 19:51 | FLYCLOUD 0xf515…05cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $63,421 | $15,972 | 1.88 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:49 | Zebra 0x94b5…a124 | pons-v2 | 64 | $4 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:45 | EULER 0xff98…0f14 | pons-v2 | 35 | $5,145 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:45 | EULER 0xac26…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 28 | $20,290 | $6 | 2.00 | gateD:vol5 $6 < $5000 |
| 19:45 | INVEST 0x7556…145c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $34,863 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:45 | EULER 0x017e…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $20,265 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:44 | LAURA 0xcaa4…0ce6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 105 | $54,615 | $27,086 | 1.55 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 19:42 | AVO 0x6aee…2a51 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $68,122 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 19:42 | EULER 0x55fc…9653 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 179 | $192,454 | $22,627 | 1.74 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 431 |
| gateD:features | 110 |
| gateD:liq | 89 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 69 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 69 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 66 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 62 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 56 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 54 |
| gateD:vol5 | 31 |
| C:sellSim | 17 |
| missed the window | 7 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 4 |
| C:copycat | 3 |
| C:tapeRatio>4 | 3 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 3 |
| C:ownerEoa | 2 |
| C:selectors:pause | 1 |
| C:denyConstant | 1 |
| C:selectors:pause+setMaxTx | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
1625 refusals checked at +1h so far. 151 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 1294 | -8.6% | 66 |
| filterC | 328 | +52.2% | 85 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:15 | FLYBRAIN | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -56.1% | -33.1% |
| 21:15 | DLM | gateD:liq $6983 < $10000 | d1 | -53.1% | -31.2% |
| 21:15 | Baton | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +32.4% | -100.0% |
| 21:15 | EQUILIBRA | gateD:liq $0 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 21:00 | KEKIUS | gateD:buy/sell 0.98 < 1.5 | d1 | -85.0% | -61.7% |
| 21:00 | EULER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -26.2% | -14.1% |
| 21:00 | EULER | gateD:vol5 $6 < $5000 | h1 | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 21:00 | INVEST | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | EULER | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | Zebra | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -96.5% | +105659.8% |
| 21:00 | FLYCLOUD | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +129.7% | +72.4% |
| 21:00 | PIXIE | gateD:liq $7012 < $10000 | h1 | -57.3% | -34.7% |
| 21:00 | PIXIE | gateD:liq $4651 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21:00 | UNIPCS | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -58.8% | -36.0% |
| 21:00 | MADE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -21.4% | -11.6% |
| 21:00 | MEMESTR | filterC:notV2VsWeth,ownerEoa,selectors:pause,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -29.9% | -24.8% |
| 21:00 | PONSIBLE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +50.8% | +31.8% |
| 20:45 | BLOB | gateD:vol5 $2186 < $5000 | d1 | -83.1% | -68.0% |
| 20:45 | STNKCHD | gateD:vol5 $694 < $5000 | d1 | +18.0% | +13.4% |
| 20:45 | COPPERINU | gateD:buy/sell 0.65 < 1.5 | h1 | +48.1% | +19.3% |
| 20:45 | Sheared | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 20:45 | AVO | gateD:liq $5722 < $10000 | h1 | -19.8% | -10.4% |
| 20:45 | moltfly | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20:45 | MINARA | gateD:liq $9052 < $10000 | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20:45 | EULER | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -10.6% | -5.4% |
| 20:45 | AVO | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20:45 | LAURA | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +145.9% | +83.9% |
| 20:30 | FEYNMAN | gateD:vol5 $2585 < $5000 | d1 | -38.8% | -38.3% |
| 20:30 | FEEZ | filterC:sellSim | d1 | -89.5% | -66.8% |
| 20:30 | EYWA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)