Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 08 Sept, 23:32 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$0.00
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
0
0 won · 0 open
Per trade
n/a
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
0.0h
since 08 Sept, 23:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 10s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 11s ago ok
Socket events 84 · failsafes 0 · errors 0
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 8 rpc · 0 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
76
launches seen
→
0
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
0
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
0
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
0
opened
Refused: gate B 0 · gate D 0 · filter C 0 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (0)
none yet
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 0 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.00 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $0.00 | > $0 | not yet |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | n/a | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | not yet |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 536 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:53 | RUB 0x40ae…6624 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:53 | JEW 0xc5a9…38d1 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 264 | $235 | $244 | 0.60 | gateD:liq $235 < $10000 |
| 22:53 | GTACRYPTO 0x3aba…aac2 | pons-v2 | 26 | $2,975 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:53 | SNACKBITS 0xccc9…6913 | pons-v2 | 21 | $3,769 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:51 | OG 0x6460…d923 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $6,585 | $52 | gateD:liq $6585 < $10000 | |
| 22:51 | LCN 0x4190…de4a | pons-v2 | 22 | $5,208 | $2,056 | 1.33 | gateD:liq $5208 < $10000 |
| 22:51 | MUSE 0x71b6…a5ed | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $48,592 | $18,974 | 1.24 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:51 | DFC 0xbca7…94f0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $121,893 | $18,218 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:51 | OG.COM 0x8147…8fe2 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 35 | $6,830 | $1,546 | 0.91 | gateD:liq $6830 < $10000 |
| 22:51 | GOOGL 0x2e08…4fe3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $532,929 | $4,219 | 1.22 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:51 | CRUMBS 0x6b73…8c80 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 71 | $14,765 | $6,813 | 1.21 | gateD:buy/sell 1.21 < 1.5 |
| 22:51 | LISTED 0x398a…897c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 66 | $50,797 | $187,303 | 1.02 | gateD:buy/sell 1.02 < 1.5 |
| 22:47 | BUDDY 0x0b73…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 65 | $38,407 | $7,877 | 4.77 | filterC:sellSim |
| 22:47 | SPY 0x117c…4c0c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 21 | $1,933,730 | $39,755 | 1.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:47 | PYRE 0x0d11…eeed | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 42 | $55,101 | $16,169 | 1.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:45 | OG.COM 0x8147…8fe2 | pons-v2 | 21 | $8,313 | $8,819 | 0.84 | gateD:liq $8313 < $10000 |
| 22:45 | NVDA 0xd060…9eec | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 26 | $7,388,642 | $121,618 | 1.01 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 22:45 | LISTED 0x398a…897c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 178 | $66,338 | $228,024 | 1.01 | gateD:buy/sell 1.01 < 1.5 |
| 22:45 | OG 0x6460…d923 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 87 | $6,487 | $773 | 0.71 | gateD:liq $6487 < $10000 |
| 22:44 | PYRE 0x0d11…eeed | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 288 | $61,122 | $50,077 | 1.76 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:21 | MUSE 0x83a2…ae5e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 68 | $5,469 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:19 | CTDL 0x9ada…2053 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 240 | $20,964 | $24,751 | 1.59 | filterC:sellSim |
| 22:17 | PLINKO 0x7fa8…caa7 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 25 | $8,780 | $202 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $8780 < $10000 |
| 22:17 | HAPPY LIFE 0x12ad…7a32 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $6,412 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:17 | HAPPYLIFE 0xcf6b…1cf9 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 312 | $10,258 | $3,896 | 1.63 | gateD:vol5 $3896 < $5000 |
| 22:14 | MUSE 0xc96e…e38c | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 50 | $57,401 | $18,249 | 2.25 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 22:13 | MUSE 0xd95c…6e01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 22 | $43,187 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:13 | museband 0x0d09…3f5b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 41 | $4,853 | $424 | 0.50 | gateD:liq $4853 < $10000 |
| 22:11 | PYRE 0x0922…d46e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $3,858 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:11 | MUSE 0xf6b4…9685 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 102 | $5,371 | $4,679 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $5371 < $10000 |
| 22:11 | MUSE 0xc73a…0042 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $5,289 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:09 | micropenis 0x7fab…26f5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 82 | $5,375 | $3,082 | 0.22 | gateD:liq $5375 < $10000 |
| 22:07 | WAGIE 0x7653…dd01 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 222 | $19,931 | $2,813 | 1.86 | gateD:vol5 $2813 < $5000 |
| 22:06 | WORM 0x3ba5…c09d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 338 | $53,727 | $65,995 | 1.53 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 22:06 | Adam 0x91a9…35a3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 22:06 | PVE 0x74ea…ad1b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 57 | $16,111 | $15,819 | 0.92 | gateD:buy/sell 0.92 < 1.5 |
| 22:05 | ALPHY 0x4631…98e5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 95 | $15,420 | $10,868 | 0.72 | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 |
| 22:04 | ZKSWAP 0x91f9…bdb0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 151 | $20,469 | $14,404 | 1.70 | filterC:sellSim |
| 22:04 | CSM 0xa1a7…23b8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 135 | $6,181 | $23 | 0.33 | gateD:liq $6181 < $10000 |
| 22:02 | AYLES 0x62e2…04a8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 38 | $4,692 | $24 | 0.00 | gateD:liq $4692 < $10000 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| none | |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
495 refusals checked at +1h so far. 38 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 399 | -13.4% | 16 |
| filterC | 95 | +89.1% | 22 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | HAPPY LIFE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -10.0% | -5.2% |
| 23:30 | HAPPYLIFE | gateD:vol5 $3896 < $5000 | h1 | -82.4% | -58.1% |
| 23:30 | CTDL | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -93.6% | -74.7% |
| 23:30 | MUSE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -33.9% | -18.7% |
| 23:30 | PLINKO | gateD:liq $8780 < $10000 | h1 | -10.7% | -5.6% |
| 23:15 | CSM | gateD:liq $6181 < $10000 | h1 | -29.4% | -16.1% |
| 23:15 | ZKSWAP | filterC:sellSim | h1 | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| 23:15 | ALPHY | gateD:buy/sell 0.72 < 1.5 | h1 | -52.6% | -31.2% |
| 23:15 | Adam | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | n/a |
| 23:15 | PVE | gateD:buy/sell 0.92 < 1.5 | h1 | -95.6% | -79.0% |
| 23:15 | WORM | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -27.9% | -15.1% |
| 23:15 | WAGIE | gateD:vol5 $2813 < $5000 | h1 | -85.2% | -73.1% |
| 23:15 | micropenis | gateD:liq $5375 < $10000 | h1 | -13.9% | -7.6% |
| 23:15 | PYRE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| 23:15 | MUSE | gateD:liq $5371 < $10000 | h1 | -40.9% | -23.1% |
| 23:15 | MUSE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -49.3% | -28.8% |
| 23:15 | museband | gateD:liq $4853 < $10000 | h1 | -24.8% | -13.3% |
| 23:15 | MUSE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23:15 | MUSE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,copycat,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +53.7% | +34.5% |
| 23:15 | AdStocks | gateD:liq $5106 < $10000 | h1 | -3.6% | -1.8% |
| 23:15 | SAFEHOUSE | gateD:buy/sell 1.25 < 1.5 | h1 | -93.1% | -73.7% |
| 23:15 | MUSE | gateD:liq $7137 < $10000 | h1 | -69.8% | -45.1% |
| 23:15 | MUSE | gateD:liq $5884 < $10000 | h1 | -57.2% | -34.6% |
| 23:15 | UNCS | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -72.1% | -47.3% |
| 23:15 | AYLES | gateD:liq $4692 < $10000 | h1 | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| 23:00 | SPRL | gateD:buy/sell 1.19 < 1.5 | h1 | +43.0% | +19.4% |
| 23:00 | AMDA | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | h1 | -0.1% | -0.0% |
| 23:00 | CPI | gateD:buy/sell 1.04 < 1.5 | h1 | +156.2% | +59.6% |
| 23:00 | SEARCHX | gateD:liq $5006 < $10000 | h1 | -11.5% | -6.1% |
| 23:00 | WILL | gateD:liq $4339 < $10000 | h1 | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)