Launch-structure paper trader
Robinhood Chain (4663) · paper only, no real money · admission on launch structure and early crowd, not on wallets · rendered 10 Sept, 07:26 Beirut, refreshes every 60 s · P/L is modelled at the p75 impact case (8% per leg) so it understates good execution on purpose
Book P/L
$6.14
costed at 8% impact per leg
Trades
1
1 won · 0 open
Per trade
$6.14
replay yardstick $10.00 at 8%
Running
8.9h
since 09 Sept, 22:30 Beirut
Live status LIVE
State written 3s ago
Launch socket publicnode · 2 subs · last event 4s ago ok
Socket events 11,358 · failsafes 7 · errors 6
Mode paper · ticket $50 · maxOpen 2 per set
RPC this run 3,797 rpc · 1,069 http
Caller book inert (no caller feed wired)
Funnel this run
7,871
launches seen
→
187
gate B: ≥20 buyers in 10m
→
22
gate D: liq ≥$10k, vol5 ≥$5k, b/s ≥1.5 at +10m
→
1
filter C: rug and honeypot checks
→
1
opened
Refused: gate B 7,557 · gate D 162 · filter C 21 · vetoed 0 · size-ups 0 · reserve exits 0
Books
| set | ladder | open | trades | wins | P/L | per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| launch-gold-v2 | Gold v2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | $6.14 | $6.14 |
| launch-slow | slow (hand-launched uni-v2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | n/a |
Open lots (0)
none
Closed trades (1)
| opened | closed | token | set | age at entry | held | peak | exit | P/L | % | why admitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:32 | 03:36 | Tomo 0x8661…3472 | Gold v2 | 15.3m | 4m | 1.84x | trail | $6.14 | +12.3% | B:36 buyers · D:liq $17355 vol5 $17956 b/s 1.52 · C:allowlist · single ticket |
Go-live yardstick
From STRATEGY-v0 section 6. All six must hold before real money. Thomas decides.
| check | have | need | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paper entries on Gold v2 set | 1 | 40 | not yet |
| Running days | 0.37 | 5 | not yet |
| Net P/L at p75 (8%) impact | $6.14 | > $0 | met |
| Win rate inside 50 to 73% | 100% | 50 to 73% | not yet |
| Admitted rug or honeypot with realized loss | 0 | 0 | met |
| getReserves() watch demonstrated | 0 | >= 1 or nothing to fire on | not yet |
Recent decisions (40 of 1049 that reached gate D or filter C)
| when | token | source | buyers 10m | liq | vol 5m | b/s | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:24 | iHOLD 0x94b9…a119 | pons-v2 | 70 | $13,875 | $9,941 | 1.11 | gateD:buy/sell 1.11 < 1.5 |
| 07:23 | MKT 0x12b6…a6a1 | pons-v2 | 103 | $26,146 | $137,194 | 1.50 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 07:19 | HOLD 0x0645…37ad | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 166 | $61,000 | $9,580 | 2.61 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 07:18 | HOLD 0x8daf…612c | pons-v2 | 39 | $8,562 | $28,217 | 0.76 | gateD:liq $8562 < $10000 |
| 07:08 | flysim 0x517b…6aac | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 49 | $29,146 | $7,871 | 0.63 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:59 | BTC 0x53ce…1405 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 215 | $7,592 | $814 | 0.23 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 06:50 | LOCKHEEDINU 0xba60…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $39,695 | $94 | 1.25 | gateD:vol5 $94 < $5000 |
| 06:49 | SPIRITS 0x17d4…1a67 | pons-v2 | 31 | $6,599 | $1,596 | 1.05 | gateD:liq $6599 < $10000 |
| 06:45 | SPIRITS 0x6774…200e | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 176 | $103,136 | $19,364 | 2.04 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:44 | ELEV8 0xf86a…fcb3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 93 | $65,674 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:42 | fIycoin 0x8c00…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 48 | $39,664 | $526 | 0.56 | gateD:vol5 $526 < $5000 |
| 06:42 | FLY 0x23f4…7101 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 141 | $102,358 | $73,648 | 2.03 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:34 | Fly 0xbf30…f9fe | pons-v2 | 24 | $9,543 | $14,850 | 0.84 | gateD:liq $9543 < $10000 |
| 06:33 | FLY 0xd07b…e12f | pons-v2 | 45 | $48,920 | $229,742 | 1.37 | gateD:buy/sell 1.37 < 1.5 |
| 06:32 | PDF 0x1efa…5101 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $8,898 | $1,500 | 6.00 | gateD:liq $8898 < $10000 |
| 06:30 | FLY 0x426d…20e0 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 72 | $0 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 06:25 | FlyAgent AI 0xbd38…3ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 39 | $10,920 | $44 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $44 < $5000 |
| 06:23 | FLY 0x8d07…82fb | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 154 | $120,950 | $84,532 | 1.78 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:22 | STIMMY 0xc78c…2dd5 | pons-v2 | 44 | $7,101 | $2,432 | 0.51 | gateD:liq $7101 < $10000 |
| 06:16 | GALX 0x04cf…d3b5 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 91 | $70,653 | $12,299 | 1.91 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 06:11 | BI 0x90b2…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 27 | $30,210 | $41 | 1.00 | gateD:vol5 $41 < $5000 |
| 06:10 | MIND 0xe525…ccad | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 33 | $21,415 | $5,558 | 2.00 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:57 | DIVIDEND 0xc8a0…d66b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 186 | $118,660 | $21,194 | 1.91 | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown |
| 05:47 | Kimchi 0xd8a3…6c57 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 61 | $7,751 | $2,499 | 1.75 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:36 | BONER 0x9809…1e18 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 34 | $548,799 | $16,616 | 1.80 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:34 | PN20REF 0xd932…60cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 36 | $8,796 | $2,868 | 0.57 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 05:32 | Plumber 0x0758…6002 | pons-v2 | 36 | $10,013 | $25,353 | 1.17 | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 |
| 05:28 | DIVIDEND 0xc6e5…a712 | pons-v2 | 37 | $10,054 | $10,785 | 0.84 | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 |
| 05:23 | Trumpdrop 0xd241…11a7 | pons-v2 | 35 | $24,634 | $87,049 | 1.62 | filterC:sellSimStale |
| 05:01 | MEAD 0x68b9…1e18 | pons-v2 | 27 | $19,684 | $24,363 | 1.13 | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 |
| 04:56 | MEAD 0x80b2…4115 | pons-v2 | 43 | $5,249 | $922 | 0.55 | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 |
| 04:47 | Rialto 0xe0fb…b7c6 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 67 | $19,469 | $18,562 | 1.59 | filterC:sellSim |
| 04:37 | ETFAM 0xd709…9a9d | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 29 | $21,650 | $0 | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | |
| 04:24 | SNDK 0xb90a…6400 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 20 | $350,893 | $1,274 | 1.00 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:17 | CANAL 0xb796…aec8 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 174 | $108,056 | $27,960 | 2.15 | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) |
| 04:16 | PLUME 0xa0d6…25cd | pons-v2 | 45 | $6,901 | $207 | 2.00 | gateD:liq $6901 < $10000 |
| 04:14 | ND4DOTETH 0x416d…24cc | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 51 | $7,191 | $1,658 | 1.00 | gateD:liq $7191 < $10000 |
| 04:09 | LUCY 0x2acb…d628 | pons-v2 | 37 | $7,252 | $14,997 | 0.79 | gateD:liq $7252 < $10000 |
| 03:45 | CUP 0xd475…0ba3 | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 505 | $59,674 | $73,753 | 0.66 | gateD:buy/sell 0.66 < 1.5 |
| 03:36 | STEP 0xffc3…440b | uniswap-v4-launchpad | 134 | $34,965 | $37,681 | 0.93 | gateD:buy/sell 0.93 < 1.5 |
Refusal tally this run
| reason | count |
|---|---|
| no priced pool | 95 |
| gateD:poolMismatch | 25 |
| C:notV2VsWeth | 18 |
| C:creatorShareUnknown | 18 |
| gateD:liq | 17 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager | 17 |
| C:swapsH1<250 | 13 |
| gateD:features | 10 |
| gateD:buy/sell | 10 |
| gateD:vol5 | 5 |
| C:copycat | 2 |
| C:sellSimStale | 2 |
| C:lpNotVerifiable:none | 1 |
| C:sellSim | 1 |
| C:liquidityUnder$25000 | 1 |
Were the refusals right? Auto-tracked outcomes
Thomas 21:30: "run your analysis on everything blocked so far." Every refusal gets re-priced at +1h and +24h by build/outcome-tracker.mjs (crontab, no LLM), so this answers the question on a growing sample instead of a one-off check. A refusal we regret shows a big positive price move after we walked away; a refusal that was right shows flat or negative.
968 refusals checked at +1h so far. 85 moved +50% or more after we refused them (a likely miss). Small sample, read direction not certainty.
| refusal stage | checked | avg price move +1h | ≥+50% moves (likely misses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gateD | 779 | -8.7% | 35 |
| filterC | 188 | +63.8% | 50 |
| +5m honeypot veto | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| when | token | refused on | +1h/+24h | price move | liq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:15 | BOILER | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +131.2% | +67.1% |
| 07:15 | Gregory | gateD:liq $9005 < $10000 | d1 | -68.0% | -44.6% |
| 07:15 | MIND | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | +105.0% | +73.0% |
| 07:15 | BI | gateD:vol5 $41 < $5000 | h1 | -4.2% | -3.6% |
| 07:00 | ZOE | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -36.2% | -27.0% |
| 07:00 | Veil | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 07:00 | TURRET | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 07:00 | Kimchi | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -24.4% | -13.1% |
| 07:00 | DIVIDEND | filterC:notV2VsWeth,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | h1 | -0.9% | -0.5% |
| 06:45 | TOILET | gateD:buy/sell 0.91 < 1.5 | d1 | -79.0% | -70.3% |
| 06:45 | PLUM | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:45 | Plumber | gateD:buy/sell 1.17 < 1.5 | h1 | -35.8% | -19.9% |
| 06:45 | PN20REF | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | -18.8% | -14.9% |
| 06:45 | BONER | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | h1 | +6.4% | +3.7% |
| 06:30 | CANDLE | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:30 | DESK | gateD:buy/sell 1.15 < 1.5 | d1 | -35.6% | -19.7% |
| 06:30 | Trumpdrop | filterC:sellSimStale | h1 | -69.7% | -45.0% |
| 06:30 | DIVIDEND | gateD:buy/sell 0.84 < 1.5 | h1 | -78.5% | -53.6% |
| 06:30 | CANDLE | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:15 | CANDLE | gateD:buy/sell 0.67 < 1.5 | d1 | -90.4% | -69.1% |
| 06:15 | MEAD | gateD:buy/sell 1.13 < 1.5 | h1 | -89.8% | -68.1% |
| 06:15 | Pixorama | gateD:buy/sell 0.83 < 1.5 | d1 | -62.4% | -99.9% |
| 06:00 | GARY | gateD:features incomplete at the trigger offset | d1 | n/a | n/a |
| 06:00 | Basilisk | gateD:buy/sell 1.26 < 1.5 | d1 | -16.4% | -8.7% |
| 06:00 | RSTR | gateD:poolMismatch (feature pool predates our launch event) | d1 | -71.7% | -47.0% |
| 06:00 | Rialto | filterC:sellSim | h1 | -43.5% | -24.7% |
| 06:00 | MEAD | gateD:liq $5249 < $10000 | h1 | -40.5% | -22.9% |
| 06:00 | GARY | filterC:notV2VsWeth,swapsH1<250,lpNotVerifiable:v4-poolmanager,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | +83.0% | +61.8% |
| 05:45 | REBEL | gateD:vol5 $117 < $5000 | d1 | -13.0% | -11.9% |
| 05:45 | Jacob | filterC:notV2VsWeth,liquidityUnder$25000,lpNotVerifiable:none,creatorShareUnknown | d1 | -92.8% | -83.7% |
Spec: STRATEGY-v0.md · build: PHASE3-BUILD-REPORT.md · state: build/data/paper-state.json · page: build/page.mjs (crontab every 2 min, no LLM)